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December arabica coffee (KCZ24) today is down -10.10 (-3.94%). November ICE robusta coffee (RMX24) is down -108 (-2.19%).
Coffee prices today are sharply lower as weakness in the Brazilian real has sparked long liquidation pressures in coffee futures. The real today fell to a 3-week low against the dollar, encouraging export selling from Brazil's coffee producers.
On Tuesday, Dec arabica posted a contract high, and nearest-futures (U24) posted a nearly 13-year high. Also, Nov robusta posted a contract high today, and nearest-futures (U24) posted a record high. Excessive dryness in Brazil may cause premature flowering of coffee trees and reduce yields for Brazil's 2024/25 coffee crop. The flowering period for arabica coffee in Brazil starts in September. Maxar Technologies forecasts "mostly dry" conditions for the next two weeks for the coffee-growing regions of Brazil.
Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 0.6 mm of rain or 8% of the historical average last week. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Also, Cooxupe, Brazil's top coffee cooperative, said coffee trees remain stressed as several coffee-growing regions in Brazil have not had meaningful rain in the last 120 days.
Reduced coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, are bullish for robusta prices. On August 9, the General Department of Vietnam Customs reported that Vietnam's July coffee exports fell -29.3% y/y to 76,982 MT. Also, Vietnam's Jan-July coffee exports are down -12.4% y/y to 979,353 MT.
Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production. Coffee trader Volcafe said on May 22 that Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms. Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits.
Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year would drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam's 2023/24 coffee exports would drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MMT. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.
Robust coffee exports from Brazil are bearish for arabica coffee prices. The Brazilian Trade Ministry reported on August 7 that Brazil's July coffee exports rose +44% y/y to 202,000 MT. Also, Cecafe reported on July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on August 5 that global June coffee exports rose +3.8% y/y to 10.78 million bags, and Oct-Jun global coffee exports were up +10.1% y/y to 103.47 million bags.
A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is negative for prices. ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 1-1/2 year high last Friday of 844,145 bags, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023. Also, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on July 25 rose to a 1-year high of 6,521 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024.
In a bearish factor, ICO said on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production climbed +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also said global 2023/24 coffee consumption rose +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
The USDA's bi-annual report on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24. The USDA's FAS projects that Brazil's 2024/25 arabica production would climb +7.3% y/y to 48.2 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage. The USDA's FAS also forecasts that 2024/54 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, will climb +1.6% y/y to 12.4 mln bags.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Soybean prices rose to $9.7 per bushel, rebounding from a 4-Year low, driven by supply concerns as adverse weather in the Midwest raised fears of reduced yields.
The recent hot and dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest have heightened worries about the potential impact on the anticipated bumper corn and soybean harvests.
This heat wave has bolstered prices in recent sessions, as it threatens to damage the soybean crop during a crucial stage of its development.
While recent rainfall has alleviated dryness in some areas, uncertainty remains about whether it will be enough to allow the soybean crop to reach its full potential.
Aluminum futures fell to below $2,480 per tonne, extending the pullback from the two-month high of $2,550 touched on August 27th, and tracking the decline for major base metals as poor demand among the world’s top industrial sectors retook investors’ forefront.
Manufacturing data from top consumer China continued to point to weaker factory demand in the country, with both the NBS and the Caixin PMIs pointing to sharper-than-expected contractions in July.
The outlook for industrial demand was further worsened by Beijing’s hesitance in fiscally supporting manufacturing amid its goal of allocating funds to newer technologies.
Also supporting the bearish sentiment, supply in China rebounded as rainfall in Yunnan supported the availability of hydroelectric power supply for producers.
Wheat prices rebounded to $5.1 per bushel, rebounding from a 4-year low and marking a third straight session of gains amid tightening global supplies.
Despite the availability of cheaper wheat from the Black Sea region, overall supplies remain constrained.
In Canada, wheat production is projected to increase by over 4% this year, reaching 34.4 million metric tons, according to Statistics Canada—below analysts' expectations of 35.125 million tons.
This comes as global wheat stocks are forecasted to drop to a nine-year low.
In Europe, heavy rains have damaged wheat crops in Germany and France, but low-cost exports from the Black Sea continue to satisfy global demand, further squeezing U.S. export competitiveness.
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