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Valero Energy Corporation VLO is a premier oil refining company. Year to date, the company has gained 8%, outpacing the 1.4% rise of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.
What’s Favoring VLO?
Valero, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), is a best-in-class oil refiner involved in the production of fuels and products that can meet the demands of modern life. Its refineries are located across the United States, Canada and the U.K. A total of 15 petroleum refineries, wherein Valero has ownership interests, have a combined throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Renewable Diesel business segment of the firm comprises Diamond Green Diesel (“DGD”) — a joint venture between Darling Ingredients Inc. and Valero. DGD is a leading renewable fuel producer in North America. Low-carbon fuel policies across the globe are primarily aiding the demand for renewable diesel, driving Valero’s Renewable Diesel business unit.
Valero boasts that its premium refining operations are resilient, even when the business operating environment is carbon-constrained. Its refining business has the capabilities to generate handsome cashflows that will allow it to return capital to shareholders and back growth projects.
Risks to VLO’s Business
However, being a premium refiner, the firm’s input costs are highly fluctuating, given the volatile pricing scenario of crude oil. Some other companies that have refining businesses and are likely to get exposed to volatility in oil prices are Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC, Phillips 66 PSX and Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM.
Marathon Petroleum, with its extensive refining operations, manages the largest refining system in the United States. Valero Energy boasts a combined daily throughput capacity of roughly 3.2 million barrels, with its 15 refineries across the United States, Canada and the U.K.
PSX boasts a diversified business model, with substantial involvement in refining midstream, chemicals and marketing & specialties. Across all its operations, Phillips 66 maintains a strong presence in terms of safety, profitability, scale and competitive advantages.
ExxonMobil also has a strong footing in the global refining business, having roughly 5 million barrels per day of distillation capacity across its 21 refineries.
Zacks Investment Research
Phillips 66 (PSX) ended the recent trading session at $130.31, demonstrating a +1.57% swing from the preceding day's closing price. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.29% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.25%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.31%.
The oil refiner's stock has dropped by 3.09% in the past month, falling short of the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 2.45% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Phillips 66 in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on October 29, 2024. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $2.37, showcasing a 48.81% downward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $32.13 billion, reflecting a 20.31% fall from the equivalent quarter last year.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $8.75 per share and a revenue of $139.22 billion, indicating changes of -44.66% and -7.12%, respectively, from the former year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Phillips 66 should also be noted by investors. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 7.89% downward. Phillips 66 is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Phillips 66 is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 14.67. This indicates a premium in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 14.03.
One should further note that PSX currently holds a PEG ratio of 4.89. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.86 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 208, which puts it in the bottom 18% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
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NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Cash differentials for gasoline and diesel rose in the Chicago spot market on Wednesday with traders citing issues at a refinery supplying to the region.
Chicago ultra-low sulfur diesel ULSD-DIFF-MC rose by 2.5 cents to 3 cents a gallon above ULSD futures HOc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, traders said.
Traders said Marathon Petroleum Corp's 300,000 barrel-per-day Catlettsburg refinery in Kentucky was facing outages, forcing the company to pick up supplies on spot markets. Marathon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
BP Plc's 435,000 bpd Whiting refinery in Indiana is expected to begin maintenance as soon as next week, industry monitor IIR Energy said on Sept. 12.
Chicago CBOB gasoline CBOB-DIFF-MC was unchanged after Wednesday's trading window closed, but it was cited a cent higher at 6 cents above the gasoline futures benchmark RBc1 later in the day, they said.
In the neighboring Group 3 spot market, V-grade gasoline RUV-DIFF-G3 rose 4.5 cents to 13.5 cents above the benchmark.
Group 3 diesel ULSD-DIFF-G3 fell three quarters of a cent, trading 3.25 cents higher than the benchmark.
Trading for Colonial Pipeline's 54th annual cycle of gasoline deliveries to New York Harbor ended after Wednesday's business. The 55th cycle will begin on Thursday.
For distillate fuels, such as diesel, the 54th cycle began trading on Wednesday.
U.S. Gulf Coast M3 conventional gasoline RU-DIFF-USG was unchanged ahead of the cycle change at 4 cents below futures, market participants said.
A3 CBOB gasoline CBOB-DIFF-USG gained three quarters of a cent to 7.5 cents below futures, they said.
Gulf Coast 62-grade ULSD ULSD-DIFF-USG gained 0.05 cent to 7 cents below futures.
In New York Harbor, M3 conventional gasoline RU-DIFF-NYH was assessed at 8.5 cents above futures based on a wide bid and ask spread, traders said. Harbor diesel ULSD-DIFF-NYH rose half a cent to 2.25 cents below futures.
U.S. gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI rose by 69,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 13 to 221.62 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. That compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 240,000 barrel rise.
Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 125,000 barrels last week to 125.15 million barrels, versus expectations for a 551,000 barrel increase, EIA data showed.
Refinery crude runs USOICR=ECI fell by 282,000 barrels last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates USOIRU=ECI fell by 0.7 percentage points.
Oil futures settled lower on Wednesday as a half percentage point interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve worried analysts about the health of the U.S. economy. However, fuel futures eked out marginal gains. O/R
RBOB gasoline futures rose 0.88 cents to $2.0107 a gallon, while ULSD futures HOc1 rose 1.08 cents to $2.1475 on Wednesday.
Renewable fuel (D6) credits RIN-D6-US for 2024 traded at 57.75 cents and 58 cents each on Wednesday, compared to between 57 cents and 56.75 cents each, traders said.
Biomass-based (D4) credits RIN-D4-US traded at 58 cents each, up from 57 cents each previously, traders said.
Latest day | |||||
Timing | NYMEX Contract | Bid | Offer | Change | |
U.S. GULF COAST <0#P-USG, PPIM> * Scheduling | |||||
A3 CBOB gasoline CBOB-DIFF-USG * | Cycle 54 | October RBOB | -7.75 | -7.25 | 0.75 |
M3 conventional gasoline RU-DIFF-USG * | Cycle 54 | October RBOB | -4.25 | -3.75 | 0.00 |
62-grade ULSD ULSD-DIFF-USG | Cycle 54 | October HO | -7.25 | -6.75 | 0.05 |
54-grade jet fuel JET-DIFF-USG | Cycle 54 | October HO | -17.25 | -17.00 | 1.00 |
Heating oil HO-DIFF-USG | Cycle 54 | October HO | -20.25 | -18.75 | 0.75 |
NEW YORK HARBOR <0#P-NYH, PPIL> | Bid | Offer | Change | ||
M3 conventional gasoline RU-DIFF-NYH | Prompt | October RBOB | 6.00 | 11.00 | -4.00 |
F4 RBOB RBOB-DIFF-NYH | Prompt | October RBOB | -1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
ULSD ULSD-DIFF-NYH | Prompt | October HO | -2.50 | -2.00 | 0.50 |
Heating oil HO-DIFF-NYH | Prompt | October HO | -50.50 | -50.00 | 0.00 |
Jet fuel JET-DIFF-NYH | Prompt | October HO | -10.50 | -10.00 | 0.5 |
MIDWEST 0#P-G3, 0#P-MC, IHPROD/MIDCO | Bid | Offer | Change | ||
Chicago CBOB gasoline CBOB-DIFF-MC | Cycle 2 | October RBOB | 4.75 | 5.25 | 0.00 |
Chicago ULSD ULSD-DIFF-MC | Cycle 2 | October HO | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
Group Three gasoline RUV-DIFF-G3 | October RBOB | 13.25 | 13.75 | 4.50 | |
Group Three ULSD ULSD-DIFF-G3 | October HO | 3.00 | 3.50 | -0.75 |
(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York; Editing by David Gregorio)
(( Shariq.Khan@thomsonreuters.com ; Twitter/X: @shariqrtrs; Office: (646) 261-7893; ))
Keywords: USA-PRODUCTS/CASH
The most recent trading session ended with Marathon Petroleum (MPC) standing at $164.67, reflecting a +0.49% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.29%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.25%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.31%.
Shares of the refiner witnessed a loss of 4.51% over the previous month, trailing the performance of the Oils-Energy sector with its loss of 2.45% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Marathon Petroleum in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on November 5, 2024. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $3.02, marking a 62.9% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $31.58 billion, showing a 24.07% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $13.50 per share and a revenue of $134.66 billion, demonstrating changes of -42.87% and -10.41%, respectively, from the preceding year.
Furthermore, it would be beneficial for investors to monitor any recent shifts in analyst projections for Marathon Petroleum. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 3.57% downward. As of now, Marathon Petroleum holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
With respect to valuation, Marathon Petroleum is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.14. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 14.03.
One should further note that MPC currently holds a PEG ratio of 2.02. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.86.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 208, this industry ranks in the bottom 18% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
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