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** Home furnishing retailer RH's shares RH.N surge ~20% to $310 premarket after at least six brokerages hike PT
** RH forecasts FY24 sales growth of 5%-7%, above LSEG est. of ~4.8%, on steady demand for its upscale home furnishing goods
** Citi raises PT to $355 from $340, retains "buy" rating
** Co still faces bumpy road, but this feels like the "all clear" moment that RH's execution is improving, brand has renewed energy to sustain building demand growth over near-to-medium term, and margins are inflecting, Citi analyst Steven Zaccone says
** TD Cowen raises PT to $350 from $325, says it is encouraged by green shoots at RH as question of recovery feels more of a "when" and not "if"
** Morgan Stanley hikes PT to $310 from $300; BofA raises PT to $359 from $310
** Eight of 21 brokerages rate stock "buy" or higher, 12 "hold" and one "sell"; their median PT is $302
** Up to Thursday's close, stock down 12% YTD
(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru)
Now that the twin inflation reports are in the rearview mirror, U.S. stocks are hanging onto the slender optimism as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting. The numbers did little to belie expectations of a cut at next week’s meeting, although they did pour cold water on a bigger cut. The major index futures are little changed in early trading. Tidings from the tech sector has been mixed, potentially triggering caution amid the week’s runup.
A consumer sentiment report with a few forward inflation expectations readings could be on traders’ radar. Some profit-taking can not be ruled out as traders digest the week’s big gains.
Looking ahead to the Fed meeting, fund manager Louis Navellier said, “The Fed cut on Wednesday is the big news of the month.” “There may be some repositioning going in, but most of the action will come afterward, especially if there is a surprise 50bps cut,” he added.
Futures | Performance (+/-) |
Nasdaq 100 | +0.08% |
S&P 500 | +0.21% |
Dow | +0.18% |
R2K | +0.87% |
In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY gained 0.25% to $560.48 and the Invesco QQQ ETF rose 0.15% to $473.95, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session:
Wall Street advanced on Thursday, thanks to a second-half recovery after stocks initially showed muted reaction to the fairly in-line August producer price inflation report and the weekly jobless claims data. After opening slightly higher, the major indices moved back and forth across the unchanged line in a narrow range in the morning session.
Sustained buying in technology stocks, especially those from the communications sector, and the rebound by energy stocks lifted the indices higher in the afternoon. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices closed higher for a fourth straight session, both ending at their highest level since Aug. 27.
The 30-stock, blue-chip Dow Industrials Average has advanced for a second straight day, ending at its best level in September.
Small-caps outperformed, potentially getting ahead of the curve, as the market awaits a Fed rate cut.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the green, with communication services, consumer discretionary and energy stocks pacing the gains.
Index | Performance (+/) | Value |
Nasdaq Composite | +1.00% | 17,569.68 |
S&P 500 Index | +0.75% | 5,595.76 |
Dow Industrials | +0.58% | 41,096.77 |
Russell 2000 | +1.22% | 2,129.43 |
With a session to go, the S&P 500 is up about 3.5% for the week, and the Nasdaq Composite a steeper 5.3%. The indices remain on track to rebound from the sharp pullback seen in the week ended Sept. 6.
Insights From Analysts:
Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett warns against investors hoping for steeper and more rapid rate cuts. The strategist said the Fed will likely be able to achieve the widely hoped-for “soft landing” of not-too-fast and not-too-slow economic growth and subdued inflation. “This scenario likely calls for slow and shallow rate reductions, in quarter-point increments toward 3.5% by the end of 2025,” she said, adding that this could disappoint investors hoping for deeper and faster cuts that could take the Fed funds rate below 3% by the end of the year.
Shalett said the recent labor, economic and financial-market signals have been mixed, warranting cautious optimism from investors. She recommended investors consider owning the equal-weighted version of the index as a better risk-adjusted exposure than the cap-weighted version, and also find compelling trends in financials, industrials, energy, materials and healthcare, plus certain parts of technology like software, and more defensive ideas in residential real-estate investment trusts and utilities.
See also: Best Futures Trading Software
Upcoming Economic Data:
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures saw additional strength in the early U.S. session, positioning the commodity to record gains for a fourth straight session. Black gold is inching toward the psychological barrier of $70 a barrel. It remains on track to snap a streak of third straight weekly declines, as Hurricane Francine disrupted oil production in the U.S. Gulf Coast.
After scaling the $2,600 intraday Thursday and settling off the highs, gold futures headed higher yet again Friday.
Bitcoin traded flattish but held above the $58K level as traders looked ahead to next week’s Fed meeting.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid 3.4 basis points to 3.646%.
Most major Asian markets, save the Japanese, Chinese and Indian markets, closed higher on Friday, tracking the buoyancy on Wall Street overnight. The Japanese market continued to suffer from the yen’s strength, given the key Nikkei 225 average is heavily weighted with export stocks.
European stocks extended their gains, with most major averages in the region firmer in early trading. The European Central Bank on Thursday cut rates, in line with expectations, as growth sags. The central bank also reduced its growth forecast for the region.
Read Next:
Image Created Using Midjourney
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.23%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +0.08% this morning, while Treasury yields slumped after fresh U.S. economic data left investors uncertain about the size of an anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green. Warner Bros. Discovery climbed over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company announced the early renewal of its multiyear distribution partnership with Charter Communications. Also, Kroger advanced more than +7% after raising the lower end of its full-year sales guidance. In addition, Roku gained over +5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $93. On the bearish side, Moderna plunged more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing plans to reduce its research and development budget by about 20% over the next three years, aiming for a $1.1 billion decrease in its annual R&D expenses by 2027. Also, Micron Technology slid over -3% after Exane BNP Paribas double-downgraded the stock to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $67.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand increased by +0.2% m/m in August, exceeding the +0.1% m/m anticipated and accelerating from 0.0% m/m in July (revised from +0.1% m/m). On an annual basis, headline PPI rose +1.7% in August, slightly below the +1.8% increase expected and slowing from the +2.1% gain in the previous month (revised from +2.2%). Also, core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y in August, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly rose +2K to 230K, compared with the 227K expected.
“With PPI basically repeating [Wednesday’s] CPI reading and jobless claims in line with expectations, the decks have been cleared for the Fed to kick off a rate-cutting cycle,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, market participants are now anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, though investors remain split on whether it will be a quarter- or half-point reduction. Former New York Fed President William Dudley stated at a forum in Singapore on Friday that he sees potential for a half-point rate cut at next week’s meeting. “I think there’s a strong case for 50,” Dudley said. “I know what I’d be pushing for.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 57.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43.0% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
In other news, Deutsche Bank lifted its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,750 from 5,500, attributing the adjustment to rising stock buybacks, solid corporate earnings, and strong inflows.
Today, all eyes are focused on the preliminary reading of the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the Michigan consumer sentiment index will come in at 68.3 in September, compared to last month’s value of 67.9.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes for August will also be reported today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be -0.1% m/m and the import price index to be -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.635%, down -1.13%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.33% this morning as investors continued to focus on the monetary policy outlook. Mining stocks led the gains on Friday. Final data from statistics agency Insee released on Friday showed that France’s annual inflation rate stood at 1.8% in August, down from the preliminary estimate of 1.9% and from 2.3% in July. Separately, data from the European Union statistics agency Eurostat on Friday showed that the Eurozone’s monthly industrial production fell for the fourth consecutive month in July. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on Thursday, as expected, marking its second cut this year. However, policymakers gave few clues about the next steps, stating they will maintain a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach. In corporate news, AstraZeneca Plc fell over -2% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold.
France’s CPI and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.
The French August CPI has been reported at m/m and y/y, than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
Eurozone July Industrial Production arrived at -0.3% m/m and -2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.6% m/m and -2.7% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.48% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.68%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, hitting a new seven-month low as investors trimmed their holdings ahead of a long holiday. Consumer-related stocks led the declines on Friday. At the same time, mainland developers listed in Hong Kong surged after Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that China is set to reduce interest rates on over $5 trillion in outstanding mortgages as soon as this month. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday urged government officials at all levels to meet the country’s “full-year economic and social development goals.” “All regions and departments should studiously implement all the major economic initiatives and measures introduced by the Central Committee and deliver on the economic tasks for the third and fourth quarters,” Xi said. However, analysts pointed out that he downplayed the emphasis on achieving the full-year GDP target. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a 22-year low on Friday, fueled by sustained strong demand for long-dated treasuries, despite regulators’ repeated warnings and interventions to curb a sharp price rally. In other news, ANZ economists said in a note that China is likely considering a stimulus package that includes fiscal and monetary easing as well as asset price intervention. Investors are now focusing on Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, set for release over the weekend.
Chinese markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday for a public holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as the yen strengthened against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on Japanese equities and global assets. A stronger yen hurts the profit outlook for Japan’s export-driven industries and prompts investors to unwind yen carry trades. Export-oriented stocks lost ground on Friday, while chip-related stocks advanced. Data released on Friday showed that Japan’s industrial production growth for July was revised upward, primarily driven by strong rebounds in the output of electrical machinery, information and communication electronics equipment, production machinery, and electronic parts and devices. Meanwhile, five out of nine Bank of Japan board members have recently signaled their intention to raise rates again if the central bank’s inflation outlook is met. According to a Bloomberg survey, slightly more than half of BOJ watchers anticipate the next rate hike to occur in December, while none foresee a policy adjustment during next week’s meeting. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +7.82% to 28.82.
The Japanese July Industrial Production came in at +3.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.8% m/m.
Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for a public holiday.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Adobe slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the company provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance.
RH surged more than +18% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results and offered upbeat Q3 guidance.
Arm gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Raymond James initiated coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and $160 price target.
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - September 13th
SelectQuote (SLQT).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.23%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +0.08% this morning, while Treasury yields slumped after fresh U.S. economic data left investors uncertain about the size of an anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green. Warner Bros. Discovery climbed over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company announced the early renewal of its multiyear distribution partnership with Charter Communications. Also, Kroger advanced more than +7% after raising the lower end of its full-year sales guidance. In addition, Roku gained over +5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $93. On the bearish side, Moderna plunged more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing plans to reduce its research and development budget by about 20% over the next three years, aiming for a $1.1 billion decrease in its annual R&D expenses by 2027. Also, Micron Technology slid over -3% after Exane BNP Paribas double-downgraded the stock to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $67.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand increased by +0.2% m/m in August, exceeding the +0.1% m/m anticipated and accelerating from 0.0% m/m in July (revised from +0.1% m/m). On an annual basis, headline PPI rose +1.7% in August, slightly below the +1.8% increase expected and slowing from the +2.1% gain in the previous month (revised from +2.2%). Also, core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y in August, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly rose +2K to 230K, compared with the 227K expected.
“With PPI basically repeating [Wednesday’s] CPI reading and jobless claims in line with expectations, the decks have been cleared for the Fed to kick off a rate-cutting cycle,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, market participants are now anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, though investors remain split on whether it will be a quarter- or half-point reduction. Former New York Fed President William Dudley stated at a forum in Singapore on Friday that he sees potential for a half-point rate cut at next week’s meeting. “I think there’s a strong case for 50,” Dudley said. “I know what I’d be pushing for.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 57.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43.0% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
In other news, Deutsche Bank lifted its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,750 from 5,500, attributing the adjustment to rising stock buybacks, solid corporate earnings, and strong inflows.
Today, all eyes are focused on the preliminary reading of the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the Michigan consumer sentiment index will come in at 68.3 in September, compared to last month’s value of 67.9.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes for August will also be reported today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be -0.1% m/m and the import price index to be -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.635%, down -1.13%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.33% this morning as investors continued to focus on the monetary policy outlook. Mining stocks led the gains on Friday. Final data from statistics agency Insee released on Friday showed that France’s annual inflation rate stood at 1.8% in August, down from the preliminary estimate of 1.9% and from 2.3% in July. Separately, data from the European Union statistics agency Eurostat on Friday showed that the Eurozone’s monthly industrial production fell for the fourth consecutive month in July. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on Thursday, as expected, marking its second cut this year. However, policymakers gave few clues about the next steps, stating they will maintain a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach. In corporate news, AstraZeneca Plc fell over -2% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold.
France’s CPI and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.
The French August CPI has been reported at m/m and y/y, than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
Eurozone July Industrial Production arrived at -0.3% m/m and -2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.6% m/m and -2.7% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.48% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.68%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, hitting a new seven-month low as investors trimmed their holdings ahead of a long holiday. Consumer-related stocks led the declines on Friday. At the same time, mainland developers listed in Hong Kong surged after Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that China is set to reduce interest rates on over $5 trillion in outstanding mortgages as soon as this month. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday urged government officials at all levels to meet the country’s “full-year economic and social development goals.” “All regions and departments should studiously implement all the major economic initiatives and measures introduced by the Central Committee and deliver on the economic tasks for the third and fourth quarters,” Xi said. However, analysts pointed out that he downplayed the emphasis on achieving the full-year GDP target. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a 22-year low on Friday, fueled by sustained strong demand for long-dated treasuries, despite regulators’ repeated warnings and interventions to curb a sharp price rally. In other news, ANZ economists said in a note that China is likely considering a stimulus package that includes fiscal and monetary easing as well as asset price intervention. Investors are now focusing on Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, set for release over the weekend.
Chinese markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday for a public holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as the yen strengthened against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on Japanese equities and global assets. A stronger yen hurts the profit outlook for Japan’s export-driven industries and prompts investors to unwind yen carry trades. Export-oriented stocks lost ground on Friday, while chip-related stocks advanced. Data released on Friday showed that Japan’s industrial production growth for July was revised upward, primarily driven by strong rebounds in the output of electrical machinery, information and communication electronics equipment, production machinery, and electronic parts and devices. Meanwhile, five out of nine Bank of Japan board members have recently signaled their intention to raise rates again if the central bank’s inflation outlook is met. According to a Bloomberg survey, slightly more than half of BOJ watchers anticipate the next rate hike to occur in December, while none foresee a policy adjustment during next week’s meeting. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +7.82% to 28.82.
The Japanese July Industrial Production came in at +3.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.8% m/m.
Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for a public holiday.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Adobe slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the company provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance.
RH surged more than +18% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results and offered upbeat Q3 guidance.
Arm gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Raymond James initiated coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and $160 price target.
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - September 13th
SelectQuote (SLQT).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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