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Gartner, Inc. , headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, is a leading global research and advisory company providing comprehensive insights, advice, and tools for business leaders across various sectors. With a by focusing on data-driven analysis, client-focused strategies, and expert advice and research services to help clients make informed decisions and drive successful business outcomes.
Companies valued at $10 billion or more are classified as "large-cap" stocks, and Gartner exemplifies this designation, highlighting its significant scale, stability, and influence in the global research and advisory industry. As a leading provider of business insights and advisory services, Gartner's large-cap status reflects its robust international presence, strong market leadership, and dedication to offering data-driven solutions that empower organizations to make informed decisions and achieve business success.
IT shares are trading marginally below their 1.4% decline over the same time frame.
In the longer term, IT is up 13.2% on a YTD basis, and the shares have gained 44.6% over the past 52 weeks. The VGT has gained 17.6% in 2024 and 32% over the past year.
To confirm the bullish price action, IT has been trading above its 50-day moving average since mid-June and its 200-day moving average since early June.
Shares of Gartner jumped 5.9% after the release of its strong Q2 earnings on Jul. 30. The company's revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $1.6 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s expectation. Its net income saw a year-over-year surge of 15.9% to $229.5 million.
Highlighting the contrast in performance, rival FORR has underperformed both IT and the border sector, with a 28.7% gain on a YTD basis.
Given IT's recent outperformance compared to the VGT, analysts are moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from 10 analysts in coverage. The mean price target is $512.90, reflecting a marginal premium over current levels.
On the date of publication, Rashmi Kumari did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Investors in Forrester Research, Inc. FORR need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Sep 20, 2024 $15 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Forrester Research shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Forrester Research is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in the Computer - Services industry that ranks in the Bottom 29% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 30 days, no analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while two analysts have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from 40 cents per share to 35 cents in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Forrester Research right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
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Zacks Investment Research
For the quarter ended June 2024, Forrester Research reported revenue of $121.83 million, down 10.2% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.68, compared to $0.94 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $121.21 million, representing a surprise of +0.51%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -2.86%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.70.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Forrester Research performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Revenue- Research
: $83.66 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $79.23 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -4.6%.Revenue- Advisory services and other (Consulting & Events)
: $38.16 million compared to the $32.99 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of -20.3% year over year.Revenue- Consulting
: $24.81 million versus $24.29 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -17.2% change.Revenue- Events
: $13.35 million versus $17.30 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -25.5% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Forrester Research here>>>
Shares of Forrester Research have returned +10.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Forrester Research came out with quarterly earnings of $0.68 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.70 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.94 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -2.86%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this technology research company would post earnings of $0.22 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.14, delivering a surprise of -36.36%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Forrester Research, which belongs to the Zacks Computer - Services industry, posted revenues of $121.83 million for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $135.59 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Forrester Research shares have lost about 29.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 14.5%.
What's Next for Forrester Research?
While Forrester Research has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Forrester Research: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.40 on $104.22 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.58 on $440.24 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Computer - Services is currently in the bottom 36% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
PDF Solutions , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2024. The results are expected to be released on August 8.
This provider of software and services for semiconductor makers is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -21.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
PDF Solutions' revenues are expected to be $41.6 million, unchanged compared to the year-ago quarter.
Zacks Investment Research
The S&P 500 Index Tuesday closed down -0.50%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index closed up +0.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed down -1.38%.
US stocks settled mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-1/2 week high and the Nasdaq 100 falling to an 8-week low. Stocks gave up early gains Tuesday and traded mixed on an escalation of geopolitical risks after Israel’s military struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut, which threatens to widen the conflict in the Middle East and sparked long liquidation in stocks. A slump in chip stocks Tuesday also weighed on the broader market.
Stocks on Tuesday initially moved higher on some favorable corporate earnings results. Howmet Aerospace closed up more than +12% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, Stanley Black & Decker closed up more than +9% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 net sales. In addition, PayPal Holdings closed up more than +7% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 net revenue and boosting its 2024 profit forecast.
On the negative side, Merck & Co. closed down more than -9% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings closed down more than -9% on reports that Delta Air Lines is seeking compensation from the company for the IT outage it caused earlier this month. In addition, Corning closed down more than -7% after forecasting weaker-than-expected Q3 core sales.
Tuesday’s US economic news was stronger than expected, a hawkish factor for Fed policy that was negative for stocks.
The US May S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +6.81% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.60% y/y.
US Jun JOLTS job openings fell -46,000 to 8.184 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 8.000 million.
The Conference Board US Jul consumer confidence index rose +2.5 to 100.3, stronger than expectations of 99.7.
Major central banks are meeting this week to decide on monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to release details of plans to cut monthly bond purchases after its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and possibly begin raising interest rates after a report Tuesday from public broadcaster NHK said that BOJ board members would discuss raising interest rates to 0.25% from the current range of 0% to 0.1% on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is likely to signal its intention to cut interest rates in September after its two-day meeting on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to cut its bank rate by 25 bp to 5.00% from 5.25%.
Stock investors will continue to focus on tech stocks, with key earnings reports on tap for this week. Magnificent 7 companies reporting this week include Microsoft after Tuesday’s close, Meta on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Nvidia is expected to report earnings on August 28. Tesla and Alphabet were the first of the Magnificent 7 to report earnings, with their reports last Wednesday.
The market consensus is that Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 companies will rise +9% y/y. About one-third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported thus far. According to Bloomberg, most reporting companies have beaten their earnings consensus, but only 43% have beaten revenue expectations, the lowest percentage in five years.
The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 4% for this week's FOMC meeting on Tue/Wed and 100% for the following meeting on September 17-18 if the FOMC does not cut rates next week.
Overseas stock markets Tuesday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.53%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 5-1/2 month low and closed down -0.43%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 Index closed up by +0.15%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU24) Tuesday closed up +7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.9 bp to 4.145%. Sep T-notes Tuesday rallied to a 5-1/2 month nearest-futures high, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-1/2 month low of 4.128%. T-notes jumped Tuesday on a surge in safe-haven demand due to rising geopolitical tensions after Israel carried out a strike in Lebanon targeting a Hezbollah commander. T-notes also had carryover support from a rally in European government bonds.
T-notes Tuesday initially turned lower due to stronger than expected US economic reports on May S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home prices, Jun JOLTS job openings, and Jul consumer confidence, hawkish factors for Fed policy.
European government bond yields on Tuesday moved lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3-1/2 month low of 2.333% and finished down -1.9 bp at 2.340%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -0.6 bp to 4.043%.
Eurozone Q2 GDP grew +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.5% y/y.
Eurozone Jul economic confidence fell -0.1 to 95.8, stronger than expectations of 95.2.
German Jul CPI (EU harmonized) rose +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 95% for the September 12 meeting.
US Stock Movers
CrowdStrike Holdings closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on reports that Delta Air Lines is seeking compensation from the company for the IT outage it caused earlier this month from a failed software upgrade.
Merck & Co closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $7.94-$8.04 from a previous forecast of $8.53-$8.65.
A slump in chip stocks Tuesday pressured the overall market. Nvidia closed down more than -7%. Also, Qualcomm and ARM Holdings Plc closed down more than -6%. In addition, ON Semiconductor , Micron Technology , Broadcom , Lam Research , Western Digital , and Applied Materials closed down more than -4%. Finally, GlobalFoundries closed down more than -3%, and Marvell Technology and KLA Corp closed down more than -2%.
Corning closed down more than -6% after forecasting Q3 core sales of about $3.70 billion, weaker than the consensus of $3.81 billion.
Procter & Gamble closed down more than -4% after reporting Q4 net sales of $20.53 billion, below the consensus of $20.74 billion.
Amkor Technology closed down more than -18% after forecasting Q3 net sales of $1.79 billion-$1.89 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.87 billion.
Symbiotic closed down more than -23% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $455 million-$475 million, well below the consensus of $516.9 million.
Archer-Daniels-Midland closed down more than -1% after reporting Q2 revenue of $22.25 billion, weaker than the consensus of $23.33 billion.
Howmet Aerospace closed up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.53-$2.57 from a previous estimate of $2.31-$2.39, well above the consensus of $2.38.
PayPal Holdings closed up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $7.89 billion, above the consensus of $7.82 billion and boosted its 2024 profit forecast to an increase of “low-to-mid-teens” from a previous forecast of “mid-to-high-single digit” growth.
F5 Inc closed up more than +12% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $695.5 million, above the consensus of $685.8 million, and forecasting Q4 revenue of $720 million-$740 million, stronger than the consensus of $715.2 million.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed up more than +9% after reporting Q2 net sales of $4.02 billion, above the consensus of $4.01 billion.
Gartner Inc closed up more than +5% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.22, above the consensus of $3.00.
Philips 66 closed up more than +4% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.31, stronger than the consensus of $1.98.
Sysco closed up more than +4% after reporting Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $1.30 billion, better than the consensus of $1.26 billion.
Zebra Technologies closed up more than +3% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.22 billion, above the consensus of $1.18 billion.
Earnings Reports (7/31/2024)
Aflac Inc (AFL), Albemarle Corp (ALB), Allstate Corp/The (ALL), Altria Group Inc (MO), American International Group Inc (AIG), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), ANSYS Inc (ANSS), APA Corp (APA), Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB), Boeing Co/The (BA), BorgWarner Inc (BWA), Bunge Global SA (BG), CDW Corp/DE (CDW), Cencora Inc (COR), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Corteva Inc (CTVA), Dayforce Inc (DAY), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), eBay Inc (EBAY), Etsy Inc (ETSY), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Eversource Energy (ES), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), FMC Corp (FMC), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hess Corp (HES), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX Corp (IEX), Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR), Johnson Controls International (JCI), KKR & Co Inc (KKR), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR), Mastercard Inc (MA), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MetLife Inc (MET), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), PTC Inc (PTC), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Trane Technologies PLC (TT), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), Waters Corp (WAT), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC), Western Digital Corp (WDC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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