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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Carnival?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Carnival (CCL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.19 a share, just 12 days from its upcoming earnings release on September 30, 2024.
CCL has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.99%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.19 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15. Carnival is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CCL is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Las Vegas Sands (LVS) as well.
Las Vegas Sands is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 16, 2024. LVS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.58 a share 28 days from its next earnings release.
For Las Vegas Sands, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.55 is +4.57%.
CCL and LVS' positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
Carnival (CCL) closed the latest trading day at $18.03, indicating a +1.12% change from the previous session's end. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.04%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.2%.
Coming into today, shares of the cruise operator had gained 14.3% in the past month. In that same time, the Consumer Discretionary sector gained 2.35%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.54%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Carnival in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on September 30, 2024. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $1.15, indicating a 33.72% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.8 billion, up 13.73% from the prior-year quarter.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Carnival. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the company's business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. Carnival is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Investors should also note Carnival's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 15.04. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 18.35, which means Carnival is trading at a discount to the group.
The Leisure and Recreation Services industry is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 158, positioning it in the bottom 38% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
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