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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Palo Alto due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Palo Alto Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Palo Alto Networks reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.51 per share for the fiscal fourth quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.41. The bottom line improved 4.9% from the year-ago quarter’s non-GAAP earnings of $1.44 per share and came above the company’s earlier guidance of $1.40-$1.42.
Palo Alto’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenues of $2.19 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 billion and rose 12.3% from the year-ago reported figure. Fourth-quarter revenues also came above management’s previously provided guidance of $2.15-$2.17 billion.
The top line was primarily driven by growth across the Products, Services and Subscription segments. Additionally, the increased adoption of Palo Alto’s Next-Generation Security platforms, driven by the hybrid work culture and the heightened need for stronger security, also aided fiscal fourth-quarter results.
The company’s strong quarterly performance reflects its sustained focus on product innovation, a shift in its business model to subscription-based services, building sales capability, platform integration and continued investments in the go-to-market strategy.
Billings increased 11% to $3.5 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter and outpaced the company’s projection of $3.43-$3.48 billion.
Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Performance
Product revenues increased 5% year over year to $481 million and contributed to 22% of the total revenues. The company’s Subscription and Support revenues, which accounted for 78% of the total revenues, improved 18.2% to $1.71 billion.
Deferred revenues at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter were $5.54 billion. Palo Alto’s remaining performance obligation climbed to $12.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20%.
Palo Alto’s next-generation security annualized recurring revenues were $4.22 billion in the reported quarter, which grew 43% year over year and 11.3% from the previous quarter.
Non-GAAP gross profits increased 11.5% to $1.68 billion. The non-GAAP gross margin contracted 50 basis points (bps) to 76.8%.
The non-GAAP operating income rose 6% to $588 million. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margin contracted 150 bps to 26.9% compared with the year-ago quarter.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
Palo Alto exited the fiscal fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $2.56 billion, down from $2.89 billion at the end of the previous quarter. As of Jul 31, 2024, the company had long-term operating lease liabilities of $380.5 million.
PANW generated an operating cash flow of $512.7 million and non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow of $485.3 million in the fiscal fourth quarter. The non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow margin for the quarter came in at approximately 22.2%. In fiscal 2024, the company generated an operating cash flow of $3.26 billion and non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow of $3.12 billion.
FY25 and First-Quarter Guidance
For fiscal 2025, Palo Alto expects revenues between $9.10 billion and $9.15 billion. Remaining Performance Obligation is projected in the range of $15.2-$15.3 billion. Next-Gen Security ARR is estimated in the band of $5.42-$5.47 billion.
PANW’s fiscal 2025 non-GAAP operating margin is projected in the range of 27.5-28%. Its adjusted free cash flow margin is estimated in the range of 37-38%. The company expects net income per share in the range of $6.18-$6.31.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2025, PANW projects revenues between $2.10 billion and $2.13 billion, which suggests year-over-year growth of 12-13%. Remaining Performance Obligations are anticipated between $12.4 billion and $12.5 billion. Next-Gen Security ARR is expected in the band of $4.33-$4.38 billion.
Non-GAAP earnings are projected in the range of $1.47-$1.49 per share.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 9.55% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Palo Alto has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Palo Alto has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Palo Alto is part of the Zacks Internet - Software industry. Over the past month, HubSpot (HUBS), a stock from the same industry, has gained 1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2024 more than a month ago.
HubSpot reported revenues of $637.23 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +20.4%. EPS of $1.94 for the same period compares with $1.34 a year ago.
For the current quarter, HubSpot is expected to post earnings of $1.89 per share, indicating a change of +18.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
HubSpot has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
Zacks Investment Research
For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
For value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
What if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: HubSpot (HUBS)
Headquartered in Cambridge, MA, HubSpot Inc. provides inbound marketing and sales application over the cloud. The software-as-a-service (SaaS) vendor helps businesses attract more customers through search engine optimization (SEO), social media, blogging, website content management, marketing automation, email, Customer Relationship Management (CRM), analytics and reporting.
HUBS is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Computer and Technology stock. HUBS has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 1% over the past four weeks.
12 analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.31 to $7.64 per share. HUBS boasts an average earnings surprise of 18.8%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, HUBS should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Growth stocks are shares of companies that are still in the process of growing. They allow investors with a high risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon to earn significant returns when the underlying business thrives.
Furthermore, growth stocks with a "strong buy" consensus rating on Wall Street reflect analysts' confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
Wall Street is bullish on tech stocks Semtech Corporation and Hubspot , especially now that the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is in full swing, rating both a "strong buy." Let's learn more about these two growth stocks.
#1. Semtech Corporation
Valued at $2.8 billion, Semtech Corporation is a leading supplier of high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, and has been a key player in the technology industry for decades. SMTC is well-known for its innovations in the IoT, broadband, and data center markets.
Semtech stock has soared 100% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500 Index's gain of 18.4%.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Semtech posted revenues of $215.4 million - lower than $238.4 million in the year-ago quarter, but still reflecting a resilient performance in the face of challenging conditions.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell to $0.11, down from $0.13 in the year-ago quarter. Both revenue and earnings surpassed consensus estimates. The company’s adjusted gross margin remained robust at around 50.4%, showcasing its ability to maintain profitability.
The company's focus on the industrial and communications sectors, including its LoRa (Long Range) technology, has been a major growth driver. LoRa, a critical component in the Internet of Things (IoT), enables long-distance communication with low power consumption.
Semtech is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding IoT market trend. Management highlighted in the Q2 earnings call that “LoRa consumption in industrial applications continue to grow” particularly in a wide “range of applications from healthcare, smart utilities and smart city to factory automation with a recent deployment in automotive facilities.”
Semtech has been actively expanding its portfolio, particularly in the IoT space, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth in the years ahead.
Management believes infrastructure could be the strongest short-term tailwind. For the third quarter, the company expects sales to increase by 15.9% to $233 million (plus or minus $5 million). Furthermore, EPS could be around $0.23 per share
Analysts that cover Semtech expect earnings to jump 387.1% to $0.68 per share in fiscal 2025, with further gains of 129.3% to $1.56 in fiscal 2026. Trading at 27 times forward 2026 earnings, Semtech seems like a reasonable AI stock to buy now.
What Does Wall Street Say About Semtech Stock?
Overall, Wall Street rates Semtech stock a “strong buy.” Out of the 12 analysts that cover SMTC, 10 rate it a “strong buy,” while one recommends a “moderate buy,” and one suggests a “hold.”
Based on analysts' average price target of $49.20, Wall Street sees a potential upside of about 12.3% over the next 12 months. Wall Street has assigned a high target price of $60 for Semtech, which implies a potential price jump of 36.9% from current levels.
#2. HubSpot
HubSpot is an emerging player in the customer relationship management (CRM) software space. It is well-known for its user-friendly software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which has helped it build a loyal customer base and achieve consistent revenue growth.
As the company expands its product offerings and enters new markets, Wall Street remains optimistic about its long-term prospects.
Valued at $25.5 billion, Hubspot stock has dipped 14% YTD, compared to the broader market's gain this year.
In the second quarter, the number of customers grew by 23% to 228,054. Total revenue increased by 20% to $637.2 million, thanks to a 20% increase in subscription revenue and an 18% increase in professional services revenue. Adjusted net income for the quarter stood at $1.94 per diluted share, up from $1.38 in the prior-year quarter.
Hubspot reported $1.9 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter, as well as $92 million in free cash flow. This cash balance should allow the company to use AI to innovate its products. In its Q2 earnings call, management said that AI is being integrated into all of its hubs, as well as the smart CRM.
Management expects revenue to range between $2.567 billion and $2.573 billion for the full year, representing an 18% increase at the midpoint. Furthermore, EPS could range between $7.64 and $7.70, below the consensus estimate.
Analysts expect HUBS earnings to rise by 30.8% and 15.7%, respectively, over the next two years. The stock's valuation appears to be high, trading at 64 times forward 2024 earnings and 9 times forward sales. Comparatively, Salesforce is valued at 25 times forward 2025 earnings.
HubSpot's expansion into new markets, continued product innovation, and strategic acquisitions are all expected to drive future growth. While HubSpot has established a strong presence in the growing CRM and SaaS markets, it faces stiff competition from larger CRM players, such as Salesforce and Microsoft .
Until Hubspot maintains a consistent earnings growth trajectory, starting with a small stake in this cloud software stock would be a wise decision right now.
What Does Wall Street Say About Hubspot Stock?
Wall Street has assigned a “strong buy” rating to HUBS stock. Out of 28 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it a “strong buy,” three recommend a “moderate buy,” and four rate it a "hold.”
Its mean target price of $625.16 suggests a potential upside of 25.3% over current levels. The Street-high target price for HUBS of $730 implies a potential upside of 46.3%.
On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Friday, August 23, 2024
The Zacks Research Daily presents the best research output of our analyst team. Today's Research Daily features new research reports on 16 major stocks, including Costco Wholesale Corp. , Merck & Co., Inc. and Linde plc , as well as two micro-cap stocks Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co. and Armanino Foods of Distinction, Inc. . The Zacks microcap research is unique as our research content on these small and under-the-radar companies is the only research of its type in the country.
These research reports have been hand-picked from the roughly 70 reports published by our analyst team today.
You can see all of today’s research reports here >>>
Costco’s shares have outperformed the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry over the year-to-date period (+34.2% vs. +23.2%). This company Being a consumer defensive stock, has been surviving the market turmoil pretty well. The discount retailer’s key strengths are strategic investments, a customer-centric approach, merchandise initiatives, and an emphasis on membership growth.
These factors have been helping it register decent sales and earnings numbers. This outlook reflects Costco’s ability to navigate the challenging operating environment, generate solid sales, and register high membership renewal rates.
A favorable product mix, steady store traffic, pricing power, and strong liquidity position should help Costco keep outperforming. While trading at a premium to its peers, its long-term growth prospects should help the stock see a solid upside.
(You can read the full research report on Costco here >>>)
Shares of Merck have gained +8.0% over the year-to-date period against the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry’s gain of +28.9%. The company is witnessing generic competition for several drugs and rising competitive pressure, mainly on the diabetes franchise, will continue to be overhangs on the top line.
There are concerns about Merck’s ability to grow its non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity later in the decade. However, Merck beat second-quarter estimates for earnings and sales. Products like Keytruda and Gardasil have been driving sales. With continued label expansion into new indications, particularly earlier-stage launches, Keytruda is expected to see continued growth.
Animal health and vaccine products are core growth drivers. Merck boasts a strong cancer pipeline, including Keytruda, which should drive long-term growth. Merck is investing in M&A activity to strengthen its pipeline.
(You can read the full research report on Merck here >>>)
Linde’s shares have outperformed the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry over the year-to-date period (+14.6% vs. -17.5%). The company being a global leader in industrial gas manufacturing, supplies a wide range of essential gases to industries such as energy, steel, healthcare, manufacturing and electronics.
The firm secures long-term contracts with key on-site clients that feature minimum purchase agreements. This helps stabilize earnings during economic downturns, supported by its robust business model. Linde reported strong second-quarter earnings, driven by higher pricing from the Americas segment.
However, increasing competition for new projects poses a challenge to the company's return on investment. Additionally, the volatility of energy prices, particularly for natural gas and diesel fuel, presents a significant concern for profitability. An increasing regulatory burden may also negatively impact the industrial gas producer’s overall financial health.
(You can read the full research report on Linde here >>>)
Shares of Hamilton Beach Brands have outperformed the Zacks Household Appliances industry over the year-to-date period (+66.3% vs. -13.8%). This microcap company with market capitalization of $383.56 million reports robust second-quarter 2024 results, driven by a 590-bps year-over-year improvement in the gross profit margin to 25.9%, reflecting effective cost management and strategic pricing.
Revenues grew 14% year over year to $156.2 million, fueled by a strong core market performance in the United States, Mexico and Latin America, and a strategic focus on flagship brands. HBB's financial position strengthened significantly in the second quarter, with net debt reduced to $12.8 million and cash reserves rising to $37.2 million.
Sales in premium markets grew 20%, supported by innovation and strategic licensing. The company’s initiatives and solid global commercial market performance underpin a positive outlook for sustained growth.
(You can read the full research report on Hamilton Beach Brands here >>>)
Armanino Foods of Distinction’s shares have outperformed the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry over the year-to-date period (+19.8% vs. +3.0%). This microcap company with market capitalization of $179.57 million delivered record sales and profitability in second-quarter 2024, with a 16% year-over-year increase in net sales to $17.48 million and a 90% surge in pre-tax income, driven by cost efficiencies and margin improvements.
Armanino Foods of Distinction boasts 84 consecutive profitable quarters and a solid balance sheet, with $21.39 million in cash reserves, supporting its growth initiatives. Armanino increased its dividend by 10% and launched a $7-million stock buyback program, highlighting management's confidence.
Strategic geographic expansion, strong market penetration and product diversification, including a 65% market share in food service pesto, enhance its competitive edge. Armanino's commitment to quality, evidenced by its BRC Grade AA certification, underpins its market leadership and positions the company for continued growth.
(You can read the full research report on Armanino Foods of Distinction here >>>)
Other noteworthy reports we are featuring today include Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. , Truist Financial Corp. and M&T Bank Corp. .
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor
Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>
Today's Must Read
Decent Comparable Sales Run to Fuel Costco's Top Line
Keytruda to Remain Merck's Key Top-Line Driver
Linde's Long-Term Contracts With Minimum Volume Aid
Featured Reports
Chipotle Banks on Digital Initiatives, High Costs Ail
Per the Zacks analyst, Chipotle's consistent strength in digital sales, rise in menu prices and new restaurant openings bode well. However, elevated labor expense is a concern.
High Rates, Fee Income Aid Truist Financial , Costs Ail
Per the Zacks analyst, Truist Financial's efforts to improve fee income and the current high-rate environment will aid the top line. Elevated costs due to investments in technology will hurt profits.
Loan Growth Supports M&T Bank , Rising Costs a Woe
Per the Zacks analyst, M&T Bank's top line gets support from increasing loans and deposits balances. However, an escalating expense base keep bottom line under pressure.
Cost Management & Regulated investment Aid Exelon
Per the Zacks analyst Exelon's cost management initiatives will have positive impact on margins and its planned $34.5B investments through 2027 will strengthen its operation.
Strong Momentum Across Segments Aids HubSpot's Revenues
Per the Zacks Analyst, strong user engagement across all segments is boosting HubSpot's top line. Integration of AI across its product suite further aids the company.
Expanding Clientele, Hybrid-Working Solutions Aids Zoom
Per the Zacks analyst, Zoom is benefiting from solid adoption of hybrid-working solutions like Zoom Phone and expanding subscriber base driven by the need for digital transformation among enterprises.
Improving User Engagement, Partnerships to Drive Snap
Per the Zacks analyst, extended partnerships with the likes of Comcast and Viacom related to new content production are expected to boost Snap's audience base as well as user engagement.
New Upgrades
Strong Demand, Price Hikes Aid Packaging Corporation
Per the Zacks analyst, Packaging Corp will gain on robust packaging demand backed by e-commerce and rising requirement for packaging of food, beverages and medicines as well as its pricing actions.
Universal Health Rides on Solid Acute Care Platform
Per the Zacks Analyst, growing patient admissions and expansion initiatives in the Acute Care Hospital Services unit drive revenue growth. An adequate cash balance ensures business investments.
Rising Orders at Architectural Services to Aid Apogee
Per the Zacks analyst, a solid backlog and a strong project pipeline in its Architectural Services segment will drive Apogee's performance. Focus on improving efficiency will aid margins.
New Downgrades
Copa Holdings' Prospects Hurt by High Operating Costs
High fuel and labor expenses at Copa Holdings bother the Zacks analyst. Weakness pertaining to passenger yield and cargo revenues represents another headwind.
Excess Inventory & Declining Order Backlog Ail Winnebago
Per the Zacks analyst, the presence of excess inventory in the motorhome RV and marine categories poses challenges to Winnebago. The declining backlog in motorized RV & towable RV is also concerning.
Destocking and FX Headwind To Ail West Pharmaceutical
Per the Zacks analyst, higher customer destocking across West Pharmaceutical's business units is likely to continue in upcoming quarters, hurting sales. FX headwind to hurt 2024 revenues by $5 million
Zacks Investment Research
Reporter Name | Halligan Brian |
Relationship | Executive Chair |
Type | Sell |
Amount | $4,245,155 |
SEC Filing | Form 4 |
Brian Halligan, serving as Executive Chair and Director at HubSpot, sold 8,500 shares of Common Stock on August 20, 2024, at a price of $499.43 per share, totaling $4,245,155. Following this transaction, Halligan directly owns 518,152 shares of HubSpot. The sale was executed under a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on February 29, 2024.
SEC Filing: HUBSPOT INC [ HUBS ] - Form 4 - Aug. 21, 2024
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