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Investors in Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Jan. 17, 2025 $25 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Molson Coors shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Molson Coors is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Beverages - Alcohol industry that ranks in the Bottom 12% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, two analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while four have dropped their estimates. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.74 per share to $1.68 in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Molson Coors right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
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Zacks Investment Research
Tilray Brands, Inc. TLRY has concluded the acquisition of Atwater Brewery from Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP. This marks the acquisition of the last one as part of its deal with Molson Coors to buy four breweries. Earlier this month, Tilray acquired three craft breweries, namely Hop Valley Brewing Company, Terrapin Beer Co. and Revolver Brewing, from Molson Coors.
Atwater Brewery is a well-established craft brewery with a strong presence in Michigan. This acquisition enhances Tilray’s footprint in the Great Lakes region and fortifies its craft beer portfolio. The company is eager to integrate Atwater Brewery and leverage its resources to drive growth, broaden distribution and make its outstanding beers available to more consumers.
The earlier acquisitions of Hop Valley Brewing Company, Terrapin Beer Co. and Revolver Brewing added 30% more beer-buying accounts into Tilray's portfolio, providing access to new customers and driving revenue growth. This expansion is also expected to create cost synergies by optimizing operations and enhancing Tilray’s distribution network, allowing the company to reach a wider audience.
Unlocking Opportunities for TLRY Post Acquisition
With the acquisition of the four craft breweries from Molson Coors, TLRY expanded its presence in key beer states like Texas and Michigan, with Texas being the second-largest beer-consumption state. The acquired craft beer brands are set to be the key growth drivers for Tilray. With this acquisition, TLRY’s beer business is projected to grow to 15 million cases annually.
These acquisitions will position Tilray as the 5th largest craft brewer in the country and the top craft brewer in the Pacific Northwest and Georgia, bolstering its leadership position in the U.S. craft beer market. This move is a part of TLRY's broader strategy to diversify its portfolio and expand its presence beyond the cannabis beverages category.
With this expansion, Tilray's beverage portfolio now features a diverse range of products, including top craft beers, spirits and non-alcoholic brands. The impressive lineup includes SweetWater Brewing Company, Montauk Brewing Company, Alpine Beer Company, Green Flash Brewing Company, Shock Top, Breckenridge Brewery, Breckenridge Distillery, Blue Point Brewing Company, 10 Barrel Brewing Company, Redhook Brewing Company, Widmer Brothers Brewing, Square Mile Cider Company, HiBall Energy and Happy Flower CBD. This strategic diversification strengthens its already strong position in Canada’s recreational cannabis and THC beverage markets.
Tilray is transforming its craft beer portfolio by integrating these exceptional new brands with its skilled team. Management expects this acquisition to enhance Tilray’s standing in the craft beverage market and create global growth opportunities, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value. The company remains focused on delivering high-quality products and meeting consumer demands while maximizing the potential of its expanded brand portfolio.
Conclusion
Management expects the addition of Molson Coors breweries to drive growth, enhance market position, and create global opportunities, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value. Looking ahead, TLRY plans to leverage its expertise in product innovation and distribution to fully capitalize on these brands, boost sales, streamline operations and expand its presence across the United States.
Shares of Tilray have declined 26.1% in the year-to-date period against the industry’s rise of 3.6%. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
2 Consumer Staples Stocks to Consider
We have highlighted two better-ranked stocks from the Consumer Staple sector, namely The Chef's Warehouse CHEF and Coca-Cola KO.
The Chef's Warehouse offers specialty food products in the United States. CHEF presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.7%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for CHEF’s current financial year’s sales and EPS indicates growth of 9.7% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures.
Coca-Cola, the global beverage giant, currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KO’s current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 0.6% and 6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures.
Zacks Investment Research
NEW YORK, Sept. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tilray Brands, Inc. (“Tilray”, “our”, “we” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: TLRY; TSX: TLRY), a global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company, has successfully completed the previously announced acquisition of Atwater Brewery, from Molson Coors Beverage Company (“Molson Coors”) (NYSE: TAP).
Irwin D. Simon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Tilray Brands, said, "Atwater Brewery is a renowned craft brewery with a rich history and a loyal following in Michigan. This acquisition expands our reach in the Great Lakes region and further strengthens our position in the craft beer industry. We are excited to welcome Atwater Brewery to Tilray Brands and are committed to leveraging our expertise and resources to drive growth, expand distribution, and provide beer lovers with access to Atwater's exceptional brews.”
Atwater Brewery joins Tilray Brands’ impressive beverage portfolio which includes leading craft beer, spirits, and non-alcohol beverage brands such as SweetWater Brewing Company, Montauk Brewing Company, Alpine Beer Company, Green Flash Brewing Company, Shock Top, Breckenridge Brewery, Breckenridge Distillery, Blue Point Brewing Company, 10 Barrel Brewing Company, Redhook Brewing Company, Widmer Brothers Brewing, Hop Valley Brewery, Terrapin Beer Co, Revolver Brewery, Square Mile Cider Company, HiBall Energy, Happy Flower CBD, along with Canada's top recreational cannabis and THC beverage brands, Mollo and XMG.
AdvisorsTD Securities acted as financial advisor, and DLA Piper LLP (US) acted as external legal counsel to Tilray Brands.
About Tilray BrandsTilray Brands, Inc. (“Tilray”) (Nasdaq: TLRY; TSX: TLRY), is a leading global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company with operations in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, and Latin America that is leading as a transformative force at the nexus of cannabis, beverage, wellness, and entertainment, elevating lives through moments of connection. Tilray’s mission is to be a leading premium lifestyle company with a house of brands and innovative products that inspire joy, wellness and create memorable experiences. Tilray’s unprecedented platform supports over 40 brands in over 20 countries, including comprehensive cannabis offerings, hemp-based foods, and craft beverages.
For more information on how we are elevating lives through moments of connection, visit Tilray.com and follow @Tilray on all social platforms.
Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements in this communication that are not historical facts constitute forward-looking information or forward-looking statements (together, “forward-looking statements”) under U.S. and Canadian securities laws and within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are intended to be subject to the “safe harbor” created by those sections and other applicable laws. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as “forecast,” “future,” “should,” “could,” “enable,” “potential,” “contemplate,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “project,” “will,” “would” and the negative of these terms or similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. Certain material factors, estimates, goals, projections, or assumptions were used in drawing the conclusions contained in the forward-looking statements throughout this communication. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our intentions, beliefs, projections, outlook, analyses or current expectations concerning, among other things: the timing and certainty of closing the acquisition; expected sales, distribution and market share growth, revenue generation, synergies and accretion related to the acquisition; Tilray’s ability to expand upon distribution and sales of alcohol products in the U.S.; Tilray’s ability to enhance the value of its brand portfolio; and Tilray’s anticipated investments in particular businesses, including craft beer. Many factors could cause actual results, performance, or achievement to be materially different from any forward-looking statements, and other risks and uncertainties not presently known to Tilray or that Tilray deems immaterial could also cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements contained herein. For a more detailed discussion of these risks and other factors, see the most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K (and other periodic reports filed with the SEC) of Tilray made with the SEC and available on EDGAR and in Tilray’s Canadian securities filings. The forward-looking statements included in this communication are made as of the date of this communication, and, while Tilray believes that information provides a reasonable basis for these statements, these statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on these statements. You should not rely upon forward-looking statements or forward-looking information as predictions of future events and Tilray does not undertake any obligation to publicly update such forward-looking statements to reflect new information, subsequent events or otherwise unless required by applicable securities laws.
Media: news@tilray.com
Investors: investors@tilray.com
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP appears to be in good shape, thanks to the immense strength in its brands and strong performances across its portfolio. Smooth progress of the Acceleration Plan and the premiumization of its portfolio have been aiding results. The company has been seeing strong success in EMEA&APAC, Canada and Latin America. However, in the United States, it has plans on track to drive improvement.
Let us delve deeper.
Details on Molson Coors’ Strategies
Last year, Molson Coors introduced its Acceleration Plan, which had been built upon the success accomplished under its Revitalization Plan implemented in 2019. The plan looks to deliver growth in the coming years. The initiative revolves around five pillars, including core power brands’ growth, portfolio premiumization, beyond beer expansion, investment in capabilities and support to its people and communities.
The company has been aggressively focusing on portfolio premiumization, in both Beer and Beyond Beer, to boost the shape of its product portfolio. It has also been making impressive innovations, especially in Beyond Beer. TAP’s goal for its Above Premium portfolio is to reach nearly one-third of its brand net revenues, excluding contract brewing, in the medium term.
Molson Coors is among the largest brewers in the world. With a view to accelerate portfolio premiumization, it has been aggressively growing its above-premium portfolio. The company remains committed to growing its market share through innovation and premiumization.
TAP’s Brand Performance
Molson Coors consistently focuses on growing its core power brands’ revenues. The company’s core power brands comprise Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet in the United States and key brands in the international markets such as Molson trademark in Canada, Carling in the United Kingdom and Ozujsko in Croatia.
Strength in Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet appears encouraging. In the United States, Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet, on a combined basis, volume share fell 0.5 share point of industry in the second quarter from a year ago. However, these brands were up 2 full share points from the second quarter of 2022, reflecting that the company retained about 80% of its peak share gains on the core power brands.
Among these brands, Coors Banquet is performing really well. It registered brand volume growth of 13% in the first half of 2024 and gained share at the fastest rate in the top 15 brands within the beer category. The company also successfully launched a core power brand, Caraiman, in Romania, which has reached about 150,000 hectoliters since March. Further, it is also gaining from the successful launch of Madri, which registered revenue growth in double digits in the reported quarter.
Bottlenecks to TAP’s Growth
Molson Coors has been witnessing cost inflation with respect to materials and manufacturing expenses. In second-quarter 2024, the underlying cost of goods sold per hectoliter rose 2.9% in constant currency, mainly owing to cost inflation with respect to materials and manufacturing costs, deleveraged volumes and unfavorable mix on lower contract brewing volumes in the Americas segment, somewhat offset by cost savings. Though inflation moderated, the same remains a headwind in 2024.
The continued exit of Pabst contract brewing volumes is impacting the company’s results. This reduced second-quarter 2024 financial volumes by 580,000 hectoliters with decreases accelerating from the prior quarter. Also, first-half 2024 financial volumes were more than 900,000 hectoliters, indicating an above 50% fall in Pabst contract volume from the half of 2023. Management cited that Pabst is a headwind to total volume and net sales in the near term.
A Glance at Molson Coors’ Performance
Despite the headwinds, Molson Coors’ shares have been performing well on the bourses. Shares of this global manufacturer and seller of beer and other beverage products have gained 8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 4.7% growth.
The company put up a stellar show in the second quarter, wherein the bottom and top lines beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Adjusted earnings of $1.92 per share increased 7.9% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.68. Gross profit increased 9.1% year over year and the gross margin expanded 310 basis points to 34.6%. Solid results in the EMEA & APAC segment, owing to favorable net pricing, premiumization and higher brand volumes, have bolstered the overall performance.
The company has commenced a new multiyear project in the United Kingdom to boost its brewing and packaging capacity. Management projects 2024 net sales to increase in the low-single digits year over year on a constant-currency basis. Underlying earnings per share are estimated to rise in the mid-single digits. The aforementioned strengths are likely to boost TAP’s performance, thereby retaining the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s momentum in the future.
Stocks to Consider
The Chef's Warehouse CHEF, a distributor of specialty food products in the United States, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CHEF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.7%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHEF’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates growth of 9.7% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.
Flowers Foods FLO offers baked items and has a Zacks Rank # 2 (Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.9%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Flowers Foods’ current financial-year sales and earnings implies growth of 1% and 4.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.
Utz Brands Inc. UTZ, which manufactures a diverse portfolio of salty snacks, currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. UTZ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Utz Brands’ current financial-year EPS indicates growth of 28.1% from the year-ago reported number.
Zacks Investment Research
For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
For value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth Score
While good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
What if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)
Molson Coors Beverage Company, previously known as Molson Coors Brewing Company, was formed by the merger of Molson Inc. and Adolph Coors Co. in February 2005. The global manufacturer and seller of beer and other beverage products has an impressive diverse portfolio of owned and partner brands. These brands include global priority brands such as Blue Moon, Miller Lite, CoorsBanquet, Coors Light, Miller Genuine Draft and Staropramen; as well as regional champion brands like Carling, Molson Canadian. The company also boasts some other major country-specific brands, along with craft and specialty beers, namely, Creemore Springs, Henry's Hard, Cobra, Doom Bar and Leinenkugel's.
TAP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 9.37; value investors should take notice.
For fiscal 2024, eight analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.07 to $5.75 per share. TAP boasts an average earnings surprise of 20%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, TAP should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
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