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Tutor Perini (TPC) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this construction company have returned +13.9%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.9% change. During this period, the Zacks Building Products - Heavy Construction industry, which Tutor Perini falls in, has gained 6.5%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Tutor Perini is expected to post earnings of $0.33 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +146.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The consensus earnings estimate of $0.95 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +128.8%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.65 indicates a change of +73.7% from what Tutor Perini is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Tutor Perini is rated Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Tutor Perini, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $1.13 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $4.5 billion and $4.98 billion estimates indicate +16.1% and +10.6% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Tutor Perini reported revenues of $1.13 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.4%. EPS of $0.19 for the same period compares with -$0.72 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -4.34%. The EPS surprise was +18.75%.
Over the last four quarters, Tutor Perini surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Tutor Perini is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Tutor Perini. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
While "the trend is your friend" when it comes to short-term investing or trading, timing entries into the trend is a key determinant of success. And increasing the odds of success by making sure the sustainability of a trend isn't easy.
The trend often reverses before exiting the trade, leading to a short-term capital loss for investors. So, for a profitable trade, one should confirm factors such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, etc. that could keep the momentum in the stock alive.
Our "Recent Price Strength" screen, which is created on a unique short-term trading strategy, could be pretty useful in this regard. This predefined screen makes it really easy to shortlist the stocks that have enough fundamental strength to maintain their recent uptrend. Also, the screen passes only the stocks that are trading in the upper portion of their 52-week high-low range, which is usually an indicator of bullishness.
There are several stocks that passed through the screen and
Tutor Perini
(TPC) is one of them. Here are the key reasons why this stock is a solid choice for "trend" investing.
A solid price increase over a period of 12 weeks reflects investors' continued willingness to pay more for the potential upside in a stock. TPC is quite a good fit in this regard, gaining 5.8% over this period.
However, it's not enough to look at the price change for around three months, as it doesn't reflect any trend reversal that might have happened in a shorter time frame. It's important for a potential winner to maintain the price trend. A price increase of 13.9% over the past four weeks ensures that the trend is still in place for the stock of this construction company.
Moreover, TPC is currently trading at 82.3% of its 52-week High-Low Range, hinting that it can be on the verge of a breakout.
Looking at the fundamentals, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises -- the key factors that impact a stock's near-term price movements.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Another factor that confirms the company's fundamental strength is its Average Broker Recommendation of #1 (Strong Buy). This indicates that the brokerage community is highly optimistic about the stock's near-term price performance.
So, the price trend in TPC may not reverse anytime soon.
In addition to TPC, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our "Recent Price Strength" screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.
However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Zacks Investment Research
The joint venture (“JV”) of Tutor Perini Corporation TPC with its subsidiary Black Construction Corporation, has won a $38.3 million contract from the Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command, Pacific District.
For the P-324 9th Engineering Support Battalion Headquarters Project at Marine Corps Base, GU, the JV’s work scope includes constructing low-rise facilities to support the third Marine Expeditionary Force of the 9th Engineering Support Battalion.
The building construction work will feature reinforced concrete structural frame walls, floor, roof and a concrete shallow foundation system. Furthermore, the administration building will comprise the battalion or squadron headquarters and company or battery headquarters, which will offer private and open offices, meeting rooms and miscellaneous support spaces.
The project work is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and be completed by November 2026. Tutor Perini will consider this contract’s value under its third-quarter 2024 backlog.
Following the contract announcement, shares of TPC gained 2.5% during the trading hours and 1.5% in the after-hours on Thursday.
TPC’s Consistent Contract Wins
Tutor Perini’s efficient project execution, diversified delivery methods and services have aided it in bagging new contracts and awards consistently. This is the company's primary growth driver, which adds to its backlog level, thus determining its long-term growth prospects in this everchanging economy.
At the end of June 30, 2024, the company backlog was $10.42 billion, which was up sequentially from $9.98 billion and from $10.16 billion on Dec. 31, 2023. TPC’s significant new awards and contract adjustments in the second quarter of 2024 included the $1.3 billion Connecticut River replacement bridge project for Amtrak, the $216 million airport terminal connector project at Fort Lauderdale International Airport, $144 million of additional funding for certain mass transit projects in California, and the $136 million I-64 Bridge and Highway Project in the Midwest for Lunda Construction.
Furthermore, the $127 million electrical project in New York at the Hillview Reservoir, the $74 million Child Development Center at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam for Black Construction and $71 million of additional funding for various health care projects in California with Rudolph and Sletten added to the backlog value.
Given this robust growth trend, the TPC stock surged 156.4% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Heavy Construction industry’s 59.6% growth. Tutor Perini believes that its backlog is expected to grow notably during the second half of 2024 and in 2025, given the fair share of various large project opportunities on its way.
TPC’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
Tutor Perini currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Construction sector include Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX, M/I Homes, Inc. MHO and Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Comfort Systems delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.6%, on average. The stock has surged 79.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FIX’s 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates growth of 29.4% and 57.8%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.
M/I Homes has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.8%, on average. Shares of MHO have risen 70.2% in the past year. The consensus estimate for MHO’s 2024 sales and EPS implies an increase of 9.6% and 21.9%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.
Frontdoor delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 279%, on average. The stock has gained 50.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTDR’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 3% and 21.3%, respectively, from a year ago.
Zacks Investment Research
For those looking to find strong Construction stocks, it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) is a stock that can certainly grab the attention of many investors, but do its recent returns compare favorably to the sector as a whole? Let's take a closer look at the stock's year-to-date performance to find out.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is a member of our Construction group, which includes 91 different companies and currently sits at #5 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different groups, measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the sector to gauge the strength of each group.
The Zacks Rank is a successful stock-picking model that emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions. The system highlights a number of different stocks that could be poised to outperform the broader market over the next one to three months. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for GLDD's full-year earnings has moved 11.1% higher. This is a sign of improving analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook trend.
Based on the latest available data, GLDD has gained about 22.9% so far this year. At the same time, Construction stocks have gained an average of 14.9%. This shows that Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is outperforming its peers so far this year.
One other Construction stock that has outperformed the sector so far this year is Tutor Perini (TPC). The stock is up 150.2% year-to-date.
The consensus estimate for Tutor Perini's current year EPS has increased 1.8% over the past three months. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Looking more specifically, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock belongs to the Building Products - Heavy Construction industry, which includes 10 individual stocks and currently sits at #11 in the Zacks Industry Rank. This group has gained an average of 59.7% so far this year, so GLDD is slightly underperforming its industry in this area. Tutor Perini is also part of the same industry.
Investors interested in the Construction sector may want to keep a close eye on Great Lakes Dredge & Dock and Tutor Perini as they attempt to continue their solid performance.
Zacks Investment Research
The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks.
Of these, value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.
On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today.
One stock to keep an eye on is Tutor Perini (TPC). TPC is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value. The stock has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.39. This compares to its industry's average Forward P/E of 18.61. Over the last 12 months, TPC's Forward P/E has been as high as 18.74 and as low as -3.96, with a median of 12.06.
Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. TPC has a P/S ratio of 0.28. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.7.
These are just a handful of the figures considered in Tutor Perini's great Value grade. Still, they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment. Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook, and we can clearly see that TPC is an impressive value stock right now.
Zacks Investment Research
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