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American Airlines AAL will cease to be a member of the S&P 500 from Sept. 23. After exiting the coveted index, the airline become part of the S&P MidCap 400 index. The change is part of the S&P 500 index’s quarterly adjustment process and reflects AAL’s overall loss of market capitalization over time. AAL's market capitalization, as of Sept. 16, 2024, was $7.1 billion, down drastically from around $37 billion in December 2014.
Post Sept. 23, only three airline stocks will remain in the S&P 500 index — Delta Air Lines DAL, United Airlines UAL and Southwest Airlines LUV.
The erosion of market cap over time and the subsequent exit from S&P is hardly surprising, given the disappointing price performance of AAL stock. Over the past year, AAL shares have not only declined in high-double-digits but also underperformed its industry and the three airlines mentioned above.
One-Year Price Performance
American Airlines' technical indicators suggest that further downside could be ahead. The stock has been trading below the 200-day moving average, a key technical level often used by traders to gauge momentum.
200-Day Moving Average Signals Bearish Trend
Major Headwinds That Are Hurting AAL
The northward movement in operating expenses is hurting American Airlines’ bottom line, challenging its financial stability. In the first half of 2024, total operating expenses rose 7.9% year over year to $25.5 billion. The surge in operating expenses was primarily caused by an increase in labor costs and fuel expenses. Expenses on wages and benefits rose 13.1% at the same time. As a result of the deal with pilots inked last year, labor costs are surging.
The ongoing production cuts adopted by major oil-producing nations and geopolitical tensions are pushing up fuel costs. Management expects fuel prices (including taxes) to be between $2.55 and $2.75 per gallon for the third quarter of 2024. The metric is expected to be between $2.65 per gallon and $2.75 per gallon for the full year.
We are also concerned about its high debt levels. The company’s times interest earned ratio of 1.5 at 2023-end compares unfavorably with the industry’s ratio of 4.6.
Long-Term Debt to Capitalization
Given the headwinds surrounding the stock, earnings estimates have been southbound, as shown below.
AAL’s Valuation: A Silver Lining
From a valuation perspective, AAL is trading at a discount compared to the industry, going by its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio. The reading is also below its median over the last five years. The company has a Value Score of A.
Final Verdict
AAL’s attractive valuation is a positive. However, given the headwinds mentioned throughout the right-up, we believe that investors should not buy the stock at present. Instead, they should monitor the company’s developments closely for an appropriate entry point. For those who already own the stock, it will be prudent to stay invested. The stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) supports our thesis.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
The S&P 500 Index today is up by +0.43%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.65%.
Stocks today are moderately higher, with the S&P 500 climbing to a 2-month high, the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new record high, and the Nasdaq 100 rising to a 2-week high. Positive corporate and economic news today is pushing stocks higher. Intel is up more than +2% after the chipmaker won new business from Amazon.com. Also, Microsoft is up more than +1% after it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced a new $60 billion stock repurchase program. Stocks maintained moderate gains after strength in today’s US retail sales and manufacturing production reports support the outlook for a soft landing.
Aug retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline. However, Aug retail sales ex-autos rose only +0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
US Aug manufacturing production rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the largest increase in 6 months.
The markets will look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today to see whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum or whether they will decide on a larger -50 bp rate cut instead. Post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will also be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and at 69% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 1-1/2 week high and is up +0.85%. China's Shanghai Composite was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.03%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are down -5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.7 bp at 3.634%. Dec T-notes today gave up early gains and are slightly lower, and the 10-year T-note yield rebounded from a 15-month low of 3.595% and is moderately higher. The stronger-than-expected US retail sales and manufacturing production reports weighed on T-note prices. Also, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.
T-notes today initially moved higher on heightened speculation the Fed will cut interest rates by -50 bp at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting. Swap markets showed the chances of a -50 bp rate cut rose to 69% today from 52% last Friday.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.5 bp at 2.127%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 7-1/2 month low of 3.729% and is up +0.3 bp at 3.761%.
The German Sep ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index fell -15.6 to an 11-month low of 3.6, weaker than expectations of 17.0.
ECB Governing Council member Simkus said the likelihood of an October interest rate cut by the ECB is "very small."
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 32% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Intel is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the chipmaker landed Amazon.com’s AWS as a customer for its chip manufacturing business.
HP Enterprise is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $24.
GE Vernova is up more than +3% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $300.
Dell Technologies is up more than +2% after Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $135.
Microsoft is up more than +1% after it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced a new $60 billion stock repurchase program.
AppLovin is up more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $145.
Atlassian is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed CEO Cannon-Brookes sold $1.31 million shares last Friday.
Defense companies are under pressure today on a Bloomberg report that said some of Ukraine’s allies are contemplating how to negotiate a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine. As a result, L3Harris Technologies , Lockheed Martin , Northrop Grumman , General Dynamics , and RTX Corp are down more than -1%.
Viasat Inc is down more than -5% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Nucor Corp is down more than -1% after it said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS $1.30 t $1.40, weaker than the consensus of $1.89.
Acushnet Holdings is down more than -1% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
Earnings Reports (9/17/2024)
Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Alaska Air Group?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Alaska Air Group (ALK) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 17, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.98 a share.
Alaska Air Group's Earnings ESP sits at +14.84%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.98 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72. ALK is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ALK is part of a big group of Transportation stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at United Airlines (UAL) as well.
Slated to report earnings on October 15, 2024, United Airlines holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $3.25 a share 28 days from its next quarterly update.
United Airlines' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +6.73% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.05.
ALK and UAL's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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