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The S&P 500 Index Wednesday closed down by -0.29%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index closed down by -0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed down by -0.45%.
Stocks on Wednesday gave up mid-session gains and turned lower as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell pushed bond yields higher and sparked the selling of chip stocks when he said the Fed was in no rush to ease monetary policy.
Stocks initially rallied Wednesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials climbing to new record highs and the Nasdaq 100 climbing to a 3-week high. The FOMC’s decision Wednesday to cut the fed funds target range by -50 bp and project another -50 bp worth of rate cuts by year-end pushed stock prices higher. Also, Wednesday’s US housing starts and building permits reports were better than expected, bolstering the prospects for a soft landing and supporting stocks.
The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds target range by -50 bp to 4.75%-5.00% and said the committee is "strongly committed to supporting maximum employment" and returning inflation to its 2% goal.
The FOMC cut its federal funds forecast for the end of 2024 to 4.375% from 5.125% in June, implying another 50 bp of rate cuts by the end of the year.
The FOMC cut its 2024 US GDP forecast to +2.0% from +2.1% in June and cut its 2024 core PCE estimate to +2.6% from +2.8% in June. The FOMC also raised its 2024 unemployment forecast to 4.4% from 4.0% in June.
Fed Chair Powell said, "We made a good, strong start" by cutting rates by 50 bp Wednesday, and the Fed is "squarely focused" on its dual mandate of inflation and employment. He added that the Fed is not in a rush to ease policy and "we will move as fast or as slow" as policymakers consider appropriate based on the data.
US MBA mortgage applications rose +14.2% in the week ended September 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising +5.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index rising +24.2%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -14 bp to a 2-year low of 6.15% from 6.29% in the prior week.
US Aug housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356 million, stronger than expectations of 1.318 million. Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475 million, stronger than expectations of 1.410 million.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut at the November 6-7 FOMC meeting and at 36% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Overseas stock markets Wednesday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.52%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 7-1/4 month low and closed up +0.49%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.49%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Wednesday closed down -9.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.1 bp to 3.687%. Dec T-notes Wednesday fell to a 1-week low, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.173%. T-notes were under pressure Wednesday on negative carryover from a slide in European government bonds to 1-week lows. T-notes also fell on Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected US Aug housing starts and building permits reports. In addition, rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate Wednesday rose to a 2-week high of 2.166%.
T-notes erased their losses and briefly moved higher Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by -50 bp and projected another -50 bp of rate cuts this year. Also, the action by the FOMC to cut its US 2024 GDP forecast and its core PCE price estimate were bullish for T-notes. However, T-notes gave up their gains and fell to their lows Wednesday afternoon after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is in no rush to ease monetary policy.
European government bond yields on Wednesday moved higher. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-week high of 2.195% and finished up +4.7 bp to 2.190%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.854% and finished up +7.9 bp to 3.847%.
ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said, "The ECB has cut interest rates twice and should continue to cut them," as victory over inflation is "within sight."
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 32% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Weakness in chip stocks weighed on the overall market. Intel closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100. Also, Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices , Marvell Technology , Micron Technology , KLA Corp , Lam Research , Analog Devices , Applied Materials , and ON Semiconductor closed down more than-1%.
ResMed closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to underperform from peer perform with a price target of $180.
Sysco closed down more than -4% after CEO Hourican said restaurant traffic industrywide had softened a bit in the current quarter.
Cencora closed down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Incyte Corp closed down more than -1% after Truist Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
Hilton Grand Vacations closed down nearly -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $31.
General Motors closed up more than +2% as its customers with electric vehicles (EVs) now have access to 17,800 Tesla Superchargers starting this month, which may boost EV sales for GM as customer concerns ease about charging infrastructure with the expanded charger access.
PayPal Holdings rose more than +1% after announcing a new partnership with Amazon Buy with Prime.
VF Corp closed up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $22.
Victoria’s Secret & Co closed up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight.
GE Healthcare closed up nearly +2% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $100.
United States Steel closed up more than +1% after a US security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to purchase the company for $14.1 billion.
Extra Space Storage closed up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $204.
Earnings Reports (9/19/2024)
Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), FedEx Corp (FDX), Lennar Corp (LEN).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
On CNBC's “Halftime Report Final Trades,” Bill Baruch of Blue Line Capital named Micron Technology, Inc. , saying all the bad news is fleshed out.
On Sept. 16, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintained Micron Technology with an Equal-Weight rating and lowered the price target from $140 to $100.
Micron on Tuesday announced the availability of the Crucial P310 2280 Gen4 NVMe solid-state drive (SSD) which expands Micron's P310 portfolio to address PCs, laptops and PlayStation 5. The company said a version with a heatsink will be released in the coming months, suited for use with PlayStation 5 and desktop gaming PCs.
"Micron's Crucial P310 2280 SSD delivers blazing fast gaming-level speeds, allowing users to do it all faster — from gaming to booting Windows to running multiple creative apps at the same time — without compromising on quality," said Jonathan Weech, senior director of product marketing for Micron's Commercial Products Group.
Shannon Saccocia of NB Private Wealth picked iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF , saying rates are coming down.
Don't forget to check out our premarket coverage here
Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management named iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF as his final trade. The S&P Energy sector is trading at 10 times forward earnings and one times sales.
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
For Immediate Releases
Chicago, IL – September 18, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Micron Technology, Inc. MU, Morgan Stanley MS and NVIDIA Corporation NVDA.
Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:
Death Cross for MU Stock: Time to Buy Micron Based on Fundamentals?
One of the leading providers of semiconductor memory solutions, Micron Technology, Inc., recently flashed a bearish chart pattern after an eminent investment bank cut off its price target. So, what’s next for Micron investors? Shall they sell the stock or have faith in Micron’s fundamentals and hang on to it? Let’s see –
Micron Stock Is Falling; Death Cross Pattern Appears
Micron’s shares and an array of other semiconductor stocks took a beating on Monday. The Micron stock slumped 4.4% and a death cross chart pattern appeared. The short-term 50-day moving average (DMA) went below the long-term 200-DMA, indicating an imminent downtrend.
Micron’s stock closed at $87.18 yesterday, while the 50-DMA was $104 below the 200-DMA at $104.75. For the Micron stock, such a death cross pattern happened for the first time since April 28, 2022.
Bearish bets have increased on the Micron stock, with analysts at Morgan Stanley slashing the price target as they remain pessimistic about the computer memory maker’s earnings growth in the coming quarters. Morgan Stanley said the Micron stock was $140 a share. But now they expect the shares to be as little as $100.
Will Micron Stock Turn Around?
Micron is known to be a cyclical stock, so naturally, the stock would face volatility along with the economy. However, the long term bodes well for the Micron stock mostly because of the boom in artificial intelligence (AI). After all, AI needs data centers that require a lot of memory, and Micron is a memory specialist.
In AI graphic cards, Micron’s high-bandwidth memory chips (HBM) are used by tech behemoths like NVIDIA Corporation. The AI industry is expected to grow beyond $184 billion in the current year and surpass $826 billion by 2030, according to Statista.
Management is optimistic about Micron’s HBM chips, and they are expecting the HBM market to notch $86 billion in revenues by 2030 from a meager $1.8 billion last year, a CAGR of 68%.
Management also confirmed that the company has already utilized its full production capacity to fulfill the ever-growing demand for HBM chips. Interestingly, Morgan Stanley analysts still believe that strong demand by AI companies for HBM chips will boost Micron’s bottom line.
What Fundamentals Say About MU Stock?
Micron is a cash-rich company. This helps the company get involved in tactical acquisitions and other growth initiatives that enhance shareholders’ wealth. The company’s cash and investments came in at a solid $9.2 billion in the fiscal third quarter of 2024.
Micron’s revenues are also expected to improve since the demand for DRAM memory is widely projected to be soon at an all-time high. As a result, the $1.20 Zacks Consensus Estimate for MU’s earnings per share is up 160.3% yearly.
Buy, Hold or Sell MU Stock?
Based on a strong cash balance, and an increase in demand for HBM chips, it’s just a matter of time before the Micron stock would bounce back. Moreover, the Micron stock is less pricey than its peers, encouraging one to buy the dip without burning a hole in the pocket. Per the price/earnings ratio, MU trades at 9.3X forward earnings, while the Semiconductor Memory industry’s forward earnings multiple is 10.4X.
However, if a death cross is playing on your mind, and has apprehensions about Micron stock’s present performance, it’s prudent to wait for an opportune moment to buy the stock. Those who have already bought it, don’t panic, investment in Micron would be beneficial in the long run. Micron has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.
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