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Monday.com (MNDY) closed the most recent trading day at $261.17, moving +0.87% from the previous trading session. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.29%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.25%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.31%.
Shares of the project management software developer witnessed a loss of 3.63% over the previous month, trailing the performance of the Computer and Technology sector with its loss of 1.17% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Monday.com in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.61, signifying a 4.69% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $245.56 million, reflecting a 29.79% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $2.76 per share and revenue of $959.02 million, which would represent changes of +49.19% and +31.43%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Monday.com. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Monday.com is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Monday.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 93.72 right now. This denotes a premium relative to the industry's average Forward P/E of 31.23.
Investors should also note that MNDY has a PEG ratio of 2.22 right now. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. The Internet - Software was holding an average PEG ratio of 2.01 at yesterday's closing price.
The Internet - Software industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, finds itself in the top 30% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Zacks Investment Research
Monday.com (MNDY) closed the most recent trading day at $258.93, moving -1.6% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.03% gain on the day. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.04%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.2%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the project management software developer had lost 2.54% over the past month. This has lagged the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 1.2% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.54% in that time.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Monday.com in its upcoming release. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $0.61, marking a 4.69% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $245.56 million, indicating a 29.79% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $2.76 per share and a revenue of $959.02 million, signifying shifts of +49.19% and +31.43%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Monday.com. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Currently, Monday.com is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Monday.com is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 95.24. This represents a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 30.89.
Investors should also note that MNDY has a PEG ratio of 2.26 right now. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. MNDY's industry had an average PEG ratio of 2 as of yesterday's close.
The Internet - Software industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, which puts it in the top 30% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Monday.com (MNDY).
Monday.com currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.50, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 20 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.50 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 20 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 14 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 70% and 10% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for MNDY
The ABR suggests buying Monday.com, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABR
In spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Is MNDY a Good Investment?
Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Monday.com, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $2.76.
Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Monday.com. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Monday.com.
Zacks Investment Research
Monday.com MNDY, a cloud-based work management platform, has seen its stock price skyrocket 33.2% year to date, outpacing the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's rise of 17.6% and many of its tech peers. This impressive rally has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike. So, is now the time to buy Monday.com stock, or should potential investors exercise patience?
MNDY provides Work OS, a cloud-based visual work operating system that consists of modular building blocks used and assembled to create software applications and work management tools. The outperformance can be attributed to the robust adoption of its cutting-edge products, strategic growth initiatives and resilient operational management.
Year-to-date Performance
MNDY Capitalizes on the Digital Workplace Revolution
Monday.com has emerged as a standout performer in the workplace productivity software sector, demonstrating robust growth and resilience in a competitive market. The company's success can be attributed to several key factors that position it for continued expansion and market leadership.
At the core of Monday.com's growth strategy is its efficient go-to-market model, which has proven highly effective in acquiring new customers across various segments, including enterprise, mid-market and SMBs. This approach, coupled with a net dollar retention rate exceeding 110%, underscores the platform's stickiness and pricing power, indicating strong customer satisfaction and upselling potential.
The company's commitment to innovation is evident in its substantial R&D investments and ability to attract top technical talent. With an open platform architecture, Monday.com is well-positioned to shape the future of work and challenge established productivity suites. Its product roadmap suggests a trajectory of sustained growth, with projections of maintaining over 40% growth in the coming years.
Monday.com's addressable market in workplace operating systems and workflow applications is estimated at a staggering $117 billion, providing ample room for expansion. The anticipated launch of the new Monday service product in late 2024 further broadens its offering portfolio, potentially opening new revenue streams.
Financial performance has been consistently strong, with the company surpassing expectations in recent quarters. In the second quarter of 2024, revenues grew 34% year over year to $236.1 million. This performance led to an upward revision of full-year revenue guidance to $956 million- $961 million, indicating 31-32% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 revenues is pegged at $959.02 million, which suggests 31.4% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.76 per share, which implies a 49.2% increase.
Customer metrics are equally impressive, with the number of paid customers generating over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reaching 1,009, a 49% increase from the previous year. This growth across customer segments demonstrates the platform's broad appeal and scalability.
Monday.com's capital-efficient business model is noteworthy. The company generated a free cash flow of $50.8 million in the second quarter, driven by low customer acquisition costs, high gross margins of around 91%, and disciplined marketing spending. This financial strength allows Monday.com to self-fund its growth initiatives without diluting shareholder value or incurring debt.
Monday.com is on track to achieve sustainable non-GAAP operating profitability in 2024, with projected non-GAAP operating margins of 10-11% by year-end.
As the company continues to scale, its high operating leverage is expected to drive significant margin expansion and profitability, cementing its position as a leader in workplace innovation and productivity solutions.
Stiff Competition, Stretched Valuation Remain Overhangs
Potential investors should consider several factors before jumping in. The stock's current valuation may be seen as stretched, with its three-year forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 10.64X being significantly higher than the Internet - Software industry average of 2.5X. This elevated valuation could make the stock vulnerable to short-term volatility, especially if the company fails to meet high growth expectations in future quarters.
MNDY’s Price/Sales F12M Ratio Depicts Stretched Valuation
Additionally, the competitive landscape in the work management software sector is intensifying. Monday.com faces competition from established tech giants and specialized productivity tools. Key rivals include Asana ASAN, Trello, Smartsheet and Airtable. Among the larger players, Microsoft MSFT, with Microsoft Teams and Planner, and Atlassian TEAM, with Jira and Confluence, continuously enhance their offerings, which could potentially put pressure on Monday.com's market share and growth prospects in the long run.
Investors should also keep an eye on the broader economic environment. With concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes looming, high-growth tech stocks like Monday.com could face headwinds if market sentiment shifts toward more defensive sectors.
Conclusion
While Monday.com's year-to-date stock surge is impressive and reflective of the company's strong execution, potential investors should carefully weigh the growth prospects against the current valuation and market risks. New investors should wait for a better entry point for Monday.com, which currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Monday.com (MNDY) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this project management software developer have returned -5.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change. The Zacks Internet - Software industry, to which Monday.com belongs, has gained 1.1% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Monday.com is expected to post earnings of $0.61 per share, indicating a change of -4.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +75% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.76 points to a change of +49.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +304.2%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.18 indicates a change of +15% from what Monday.com is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +14%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Monday.com.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Monday.com, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $245.56 million indicates a year-over-year change of +29.8%. For the current and next fiscal years, $959.02 million and $1.21 billion estimates indicate +31.4% and +26.3% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Monday.com reported revenues of $236.11 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +34.4%. EPS of $0.94 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $227.96 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +3.57%. The EPS surprise was +74.07%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Monday.com is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Monday.com. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Monday.com is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this project management software developer have returned +12.7%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3% change. During this period, the Zacks Internet - Software industry, which Monday.com falls in, has gained 8.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Monday.com is expected to post earnings of $0.61 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +75%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.76 points to a change of +49.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +304.2%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.18 indicates a change of +15% from what Monday.com is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +14%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Monday.com is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Monday.com, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $245.56 million indicates a year-over-year change of +29.8%. For the current and next fiscal years, $959.02 million and $1.21 billion estimates indicate +31.4% and +26.3% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Monday.com reported revenues of $236.11 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +34.4%. EPS of $0.94 for the same period compares with $0.41 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $227.96 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +3.57%. The EPS surprise was +74.07%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Monday.com is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Monday.com. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Technology stocks were flat to higher pre-bell Monday as the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund was unchanged and the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF recently advanced by 0.2%.
Daqo New Energy shares were down more than 7% after the company reported that it swung to an adjusted loss in Q2 as revenue declined during the period.
Monday.com shares were up more than 1% after saying it has achieved $1 billion in annual recurring revenue.
International Business Machines is shutting down its research and development division in China, which will impact more than 1,000 employees in several cities including Beijing and Shanghai, multiple news outlets reported. IBM shares were 0.1% lower premarket.
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