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U.S. stock-market rebound faces 'huge' jobs reports after Labor Day weekend
U.S. stock and bond investors face a big employment report this week, after returning from Labor Day weekend to kick off September trading.
Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data, Canada Rate Decision in Focus
As investors increasingly anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its September meeting, focus will center on key U.S. monthly jobs data.
Australian Manufacturing PMI Flags Warnings About Inflation
Australia's manufacturing sector activity contracted at a slower speed in August, with the data bringing with it some warning signs about sticky inflation.
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China's Manufacturing Sector Declines in Fresh Sign of Economic Malaise
The country's purchasing managers index dropped more than expected to 49.1 from 49.4 in July.
South Korea's Exports Grow for 11th Straight Month
South Korea's exports expanded for an 11th straight month in August on solid demand for semiconductors, smartphones and other goods overseas.
White House Races to Lend Billions in Climate Funds Before Election
The Energy Department's Loan Programs Office was turbocharged by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, but it has only used a tiny fraction of its capacity.
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Lower Interest Rates Are Coming. So Is a Higher Unemployment Rate.
With the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates, all eyes are on the August jobs report, coming Sept. 6. Plus, investment newsletter commentary on silver's sunny outlook, AI monetization, and consumer sentiment.
The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.7% to above 38,900 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.4% to 2,723 on Monday, with Japanese shares hitting a one-month high amid a complete recovery from the selloff in early August which was triggered by the Bank of Japan’s hawkish shift and US recession fears.
A weaker yen, which declined to a near two-week low, also lent support to domestic equities.
Moreover, local stocks tracked gains on Wall Street Friday as the prospect of lower US interest rates lifted sentiment.
Meanwhile, investors digested final data showing Japanese manufacturing activity remained contractionary in August, although at a softer pace than initially thought.
Notable performances were seen from index heavyweights like SoftBank Group (1.1%), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (1.2%), Toyota Motor (1%), Advantest (3%) and Tokyo Electron (1%).
The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.5% toward 8,050 on Monday, erasing gains from the previous session, with mining stocks leading the retreat amid softer metals prices.
Investors also reacted to data showing Australia’s manufacturing sector extended its slump in August as high borrowing costs and subdued demand weighed on new orders.
Losses among mining firms were led by BHP Group (-0.4%), Pilbara Minerals (-32%), South32 (-2.1%), Rio Tinto (-0.8%) and Northern Star Resources (-2%).
In corporate news, Endeavour Group dropped 1.9% on news that Woolworths will sell its remaining shares in the company for AU$5.23 apiece.
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank also tumbled 3.3% on its ex-dividend data.
Elsewhere, The Star Entertainment Group remains on a trading suspension as investors assess the impact of regulatory findings.
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the coming week starting Sept. 2.
As investors increasingly anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its September meeting, focus will center on key U.S. monthly jobs data, while in Canada the central bank looks set for a third consecutive rate cut.
In Asia, purchasing managers' surveys and inflation data are in focus as investors look for more assurance that the region's manufacturers are recovering, and that price pressures are converging on central banks' targets. Australia's second-quarter growth data is also in the spotlight, alongside an interest-rate decision from Malaysia.
U.S.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comment at the Jackson Hole symposium that the "time has come for policy to adjust" leaves an interest-rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 18 looking highly likely. What remains uncertain is whether rates will be cut by 25 basis points or a larger 50 basis points.
Powell stressed that the Fed doesn't want to see further cooling in the labor market, which means Friday's non-farm payrolls data for August could be crucial in determining Fed rate expectations. Very weak data could make a 50 basis-point rate cut more likely, and on the other hand strong data could rule out a bigger cut.
"Even though Powell refused to comment on whether the door could be open to a 50 basis-point [rate] cut in September, we do suspect that a further clear deterioration in the labor market could steer the FOMC into more aggressive easing," said Investec economist Lottie Gosling in a note.
JOLTS job openings data for July on Wednesday and ADP private payrolls figures for August on Thursday, as well as Thursday's weekly jobless claims figures, could give advance clues on the health of the jobs market.
ISM purchasing managers' data for August on the manufacturing sector on Tuesday and the services sector on Thursday will also be watched closely after particularly weak figures the previous month as investors assess the severity of the U.S. economic slowdown.
"Markets will particularly be watching for a recovery in the manufacturing sector after the index slipped unexpectedly to 46.8 last month, igniting the recession fears," Investec's Gosling said.
U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
CANADA
The Bank of Canada announces a decision on Wednesday, where most expect a third consecutive 25 basis-point cut in the key policy rate, taking it to 4.25%.
"Growth remains weak, the unemployment rate keeps increasing and inflation is firmly on a downward trend," Bank of America rates analysts said in a note.
"In our view, all these indicators point to a cut in September and at every remaining meeting this year, with the rate at 3.75% by year-end and at 3.0% by end-2025."
There is a risk that the central bank could accelerate the pace of rate cuts, but Bank of America expects the bar for a 50 basis-point cut will be "quite high" unless there is evidence of a hard landing in the U.S. or "rapidly deteriorating activity" in Canada.
After that decision, Canadian jobs data for August on Friday will be watched closely for an indication of whether the labor market is continuing to deteriorate or whether it is starting to show signs of improvement. The latter could help quell prospects of a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut, Bank of America said.
Canadian trade data for July are also due on Wednesday.
EUROZONE
With recent data revealing that eurozone inflation is falling ever closer to the European Central Bank's target while the economy shows increasing signs of weakness, a further interest-rate cut at the central bank's next meeting on Sept. 12 looks increasingly likely.
Focus will now switch back to data on the economy, with final purchasing managers' data on French, German and eurozone manufacturing activity due on Monday and on services activity on Wednesday. German manufacturing orders and industrial production data for July are due on Thursday and Friday, respectively, while French July industrial production figures are scheduled for Friday.
Eurozone producer-price inflation data for July are due on Wednesday and will provide an indication of the extent of pipeline inflationary pressures.
Government bond supply will accelerate as the European holiday season ends. Germany will auction 2026-dated treasury notes on Tuesday and 2038- and 2041-dated Bunds on Wednesday, while Austria will conduct an auction for 2034- and 2086-dated bonds on Tuesday. Spain and France will have auctions on Thursday.
U.K.
In a relatively quiet week for U.K. data, investors will watch final August purchasing managers' data on manufacturing activity on Monday and on services activity on Wednesday, as well as house-price data from Halifax on Friday and the British Retail Consortium's retail sales monitor on Tuesday, both for August.
These will help build up a picture of the current health of the U.K. economy, which has recently looked slightly rosier than that of the eurozone or the U.S.
The U.K. Debt Management Office plans to launch a new January 2040 gilt via syndication in the week commencing on Sept. 2 and the sale of a July 2029 gilt via an auction on Thursday.
POLAND
Poland's central bank announces an interest-rate decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, with recent data showing headline inflation edged up in August.
Analysts at ING expect that the central bank won't cut interest rates until next year, with a first 25 basis-point reduction in the second quarter of 2025.
"We believe that the second half of next year should bring a clear decline in headline inflation, which should create space to start a monetary easing cycle," they said in a note.
SCANDINAVIA
Denmark and Norway will hold government-bond auctions on Wednesday, while Sweden will sell inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
SWITZERLAND
Swiss inflation data for August and second-quarter gross domestic product data are due on Tuesday.
Swiss inflation is low but for the Swiss National Bank this could be somewhat offset by a strong Swiss franc, said MUFG head of research Derek Halpenny in a note.
"Investors are rightly anticipating policy rates globally falling by more than in Switzerland and this could be providing the franc with support," he said.
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
In Australia, a speech by the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock, on Thursday will be the highlight.
The speech to the Anika Foundation, a charity funded by money market participants, is normally a significant event in the calendar of RBA governors.
With the flow of economic data over the week expected to underscore anemic economic growth in the second quarter, Bullock will probably reflect on the soft numbers, but highlight her bigger concern that inflation remains elevated, while stressing that there is no urgency for the RBA to cut interest rates.
Bullock will also be asked about how other central banks are now cutting, putting pressure on the RBA to follow.
But increasingly, it looks as if the RBA will be among the last of the G10 central banks to lower interest rates, with cuts more likely next year.
Economists expect the RBA will want to see two more quarterly inflation prints before feeling comfortable about cutting interest rates.
Still, money markets are happy to bet that the RBA will be wrong, with traders pricing a strong chance a cut could come in December.
Second-quarter GDP data is due on Wednesday.
CHINA
A private gauge of China's manufacturing and services activity in August is the main event in an otherwise sparse data calendar.
The Caixin PMI readings on Monday and Wednesday come on the heels of official measures of sector activity. Analysts will be looking to see if the recent decline in manufacturing is turning a corner, and if the sluggish services sector has picked up.
MALAYSIA
Malaysia's central bank announces its rate decision on Thursday, when it is widely expected to keep policy settings steady even as some of its peers signal that rate-cuts are imminent or have already kicked off their easing cycles.
Better-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter, a stronger ringgit and steady inflation despite government subsidy cuts suggest that Bank Negara is in no need of policy settings adjustments.
Markets will be watching to see if the bank makes any changes to its economic outlook, particularly tied to the potential inflationary impact of subsidy cuts for items like fuel.
Risks to inflation continue to be on the upside, according to Goldman Sachs economists, who said they think the central bank will keep the policy rate unchanged for the rest of the year.
JAPAN
A relatively light week for Japan features a services PMI reading on Wednesday and wage data on Thursday, followed by household spending data for August on Friday.
Observers will look at the Labor Ministry release for signs of sustained pay growth after real wages turned positive for the first time in more than two years in June. More evidence that wages are growing in line with the Bank of Japan's expectations could further cement the case for policy normalization.
Market participants will likely monitor Bank of Japan policy committee member Hajime Takata's meeting with local leaders in Ishikawa, Japan, on Thursday for further clues on the central bank's monetary policy outlook. BOJ is slated to hold its next monetary policy meeting on Sept. 19-20.
The Finance Ministry is scheduled to auction 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday and 900 billion yen of 30-year JGBs on Thursday. The auctions may garner interest from Japanese bond investors, particularly pension funds and life insurers that typically invest in longer-term government securities.
SOUTH KOREA
Inflation data will be in focus in South Korea, as traders digest the latest trade print from the export powerhouse.
Data due on Sunday, Sept. 1, is expected to have shown that Korean exports stayed on course for an 11th straight month of growth on solid demand for semiconductors and cars. Exports are forecast to have expanded 13.0% on the year in August, following a 13.9% increase in July, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
The consensus is for imports to have risen 7.8% on the year in August after a 10.5% gain in July, resulting in a $3.94 billion trade surplus. Shipments to China are growing at a stronger pace while those to the U.S. are maintaining a solid pace of growth, Hana Securities economist Chun Kyu-yeon said.
A release on Tuesday is tipped to show that headline inflation likely slowed in August largely due to a higher comparison base a year earlier.
The median forecast from a WSJ poll of 11 analysts is for a 2.0% on-year increase in the benchmark consumer-price index, following a 2.6% gain in July. A favorable base effect is expected to keep CPI growth hovering at the low 2% levels from August through October, Citigroup economists Jiuk Choi and Jin-Wook Kim said.
Inflation may rebound in November as the base effect may taper off, the economists added. Inflation was well over 3% for most of the second half of 2023.
SOUTHEAST ASIA CPIs
August inflation prints are due from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan, which are broadly expected to show further moderation in price pressures.
Indonesia's August inflation print on Monday will likely be little changed from July, ANZ economists estimate. Though there could be some volatility from food prices or education costs, the data will likely show that Indonesia's inflation is well contained at 2.2%, ANZ's chief Greater China economist Raymond Yeung said.
A print showing inflation in line with the central bank's 1.5%-3.5% annual target range could boost expectations of rate cuts, especially as Bank Indonesia has already hinted at room for cuts in the fourth quarter.
Inflation data from the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan are due Thursday. The latter two could draw more focus as neither economy's central bank has yet made rate cuts.
The UOB Global Economics & Markets Research team thinks inflation in the Philippines will keep easing, supported by favorable base effects and non-monetary government intervention measures.
Thailand's inflation likely remained tepid in August, HSBC economists said. Only when base effects fade in the final quarter of the year do they expect inflation to rise. Regardless of the inflation trajectory, they continue to expect the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate on hold throughout 2024 and 2025 to keep a lid on household debt.
Taiwan's inflation reading is expected to move toward the central bank's 2% target, ANZ's Yeung said. The economy's inflation pressures seem to be under control but though many central banks in Asia could take their cue from the Federal Reserve on rate cuts, Taiwan isn't likely to join, the economist said.
The Taiwanese central bank is likely to move very cautiously as it presses on with property-market cooling measures.
ASIA PMIs
On Monday, a slew of PMIs for Asia, including for export heavyweights Taiwan and South Korea, will shed light on how the region's manufacturing recovery is faring.
The August readings will be watched to see if the momentum at the start of the second half of the year has continued, with survey data signaling fairly healthy factory activity in July despite the continued threat of inflation and a pullback in demand.
Gauges of price inputs and outputs, as well as business confidence, will be in focus as markets look for indicators about demand, inflation pressures and manufacturers' outlook for the months ahead.
SINGAPORE
A key gauge of Singapore's manufacturing activity for August is due on Monday and will be watched for signs of continued recovery in the sector.
Strength in manufacturing, particularly in the key electronics segment, could brighten the outlook for economic growth during the quarter.
In July, the purchasing managers index compiled by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management stretched its run of expansion to an 11th straight month.
Singapore also reports retail sales for July on Thursday, which will offer insight into consumer demand during the month.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com
New Zealand's equities dropped 27 points or 0.2% to 12,421 in early deals on Monday, after a rise in the prior session, mainly dragged by losses from energy, industrials, and utilities.
Traders await a private survey for August's Chinese factory activity figure later today after Saturday's officials' data showed the private sectors in the mainland grew the least in 20 months, with manufacturing sectors shrinking the most in six months while the services sector expanding slightly more than expected.
Caution also built as investors anticipate US key jobs data later this week amid expectations that the Fed will rate cuts this month.
Limiting the falls was a rally on Wall Street Friday after the PCE price index matched expectations amid hopes the Fed rate cuts this month.
Some early decliners were Ampol Group (-2.3%), Auckland International Airport (-1.7%), Meridian Energy (-1.2%), Infratil (-0.8%), Fisher & Paykel (-0.6%), and Westpac Banking Corp. (-0.6%).
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