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Novo Nordisk (NVO) closed the latest trading day at $132.06, indicating a +0.05% change from the previous session's end. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.29%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.25%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.31%.
Coming into today, shares of the drugmaker had lost 2.81% in the past month. In that same time, the Medical sector gained 1.59%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.57%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Novo Nordisk in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on November 6, 2024. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.91, signifying a 24.66% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $10.79 billion, up 25.8% from the year-ago period.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $3.11 per share and revenue of $42.61 billion, indicating changes of +15.19% and +26.4%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Novo Nordisk. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company's business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant. Novo Nordisk is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Novo Nordisk has a Forward P/E ratio of 42.5 right now. This denotes a premium relative to the industry's average Forward P/E of 16.05.
It is also worth noting that NVO currently has a PEG ratio of 1.44. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 1.69 as of yesterday's close.
The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 79, this industry ranks in the top 32% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
Wednesday, Canada-based NanoVation Therapeutics announced a multi-year partnership with Novo Nordisk A/S to advance the development of novel genetic medicines targeting cardiometabolic and rare diseases.
The partnership combines NanoVation Therapeutics' proprietary long-circulating lipid nanoparticle (lcLNP) technology for RNA delivery to cells outside the liver with Novo Nordisk's expertise in cardiometabolic and rare disease R&D and clinical translation.
Under the agreement, Novo Nordisk and NanoVation will collaborate on two lead programs to develop base-editing therapies for certain rare genetic diseases and up to five additional future targets for cardiometabolic and rare diseases.
Novo Nordisk will receive a defined exclusive, worldwide license to use NanoVation's LNP technology for the two lead programs. NanoVation will receive research funding and is eligible to receive up to approximately $600 million in up-front cash, potential milestone payments, and tiered royalties on future product sales.
NanoVation has an extensive and continuously growing library of novel lipids and LNP compositions.
In preclinical studies, NanoVation's lcLNP technology has demonstrated the ability to deliver nucleic acids to various cell types beyond the liver with improved potency, safety, and stability compared to conventional systems.
On Monday, Korro Bio Inc. announced a collaboration with Novo Nordisk to advance the discovery and development of new genetic medicines. The initial target is cardiometabolic diseases.
The collaboration will focus on developing RNA editing product candidates for two undisclosed targets using Korro's proprietary platform.
Korro is eligible to receive up to $530 million in upfront, development, and commercial milestone payments, in addition to tiered royalties and R&D funding.
Korro will advance up to two programs through preclinical development, after which Novo Nordisk could further advance the programs through clinical studies.
Price Action: NVO stock is up 0.62% at $132.82 at the last check on Wednesday.
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The weight-loss drug market is heating up with the introduction of GLP-1 pills. Novo Nordisk’s NVO Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s LLY Zepbound have been dominating this market and several other companies are also vying for a slice of the lucrative business. The latest data from Roche Holdings RHHBY, Novo Nordisk and smaller biotech proved that an oral option could be as effective as injectables.
The new drugs in the pipeline are getting approval with potential for improvements such as less frequent administration by pill rather than by injection and fewer side effects (patients currently report nausea and vomiting and even more serious side effects such as intestinal blockage).
Investors seeking to tap the boom in weight-loss drug treatments could consider Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF OZEM, Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF THNR and GLP-1, Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF HRTS.
Weight-Loss Pills Take Center Stage
Last week, Roche’s early Phase 1 clinical trial data showed its pill provided 6.1% weight loss over four weeks. The study's sample size was small, just 12 patients, which is typical of early-stage trials.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk and another biotech firm, Terns Pharmaceuticals, also released data last week for their oral GLP-1 candidates. Novo Nordisk's oral candidate beat the company's own injectable weight-loss drug, Wegovy. Patients showed 13.1% weight loss after 12 weeks on the pill, compared to 6% after 12 weeks in Wegovy's early trial. Terns’ data showed its early-stage candidate caused 4.9% weight loss over four weeks, which is in line with competitors. However, the company said it would start the second phase of trials next year.
According to estimates from analysts at Morningstar and Pitchbook, the market for weight-loss treatment is expected to see 16 new drugs by 2029 that will potentially expand the market size to $200 billion by 2031. Spherical Insights projects the global weight loss supplement market to grow from $28.65 billion in 2023 to $101.83 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 13.5% (read: ETFs to Profit from the Weight Loss Drug Boom).
Obesity has become a major global health crisis impacting every corner of the world, with more than 1 billion individuals living with obesity. Obesity is linked to numerous health risks, including diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cancer.
GLP-1 medications mimic the effects of the naturally occurring hormone glucagon-like peptide-1, which is produced in the intestine after eating. These drugs were initially used to treat diabetes but were later found to control blood sugar levels, reduce appetite and promote weight loss.
Overall, recent studies have shown that GLP-1 drugs have led to a 10-20% reduction in body weight and lowered the risk of heart attack, stroke and cardiovascular death by approximately 20%.
ETFs to Tap
Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (OZEM)
Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF is the world’s first GLP-1 ETF and is actively managed. Roundhill believes that weight loss drugs, including GLP-1 agonists, represent one of the most revolutionary advancements in the global pharmaceutical industry. OZEM holds 29 stocks in its basket, with a higher concentration on the top two holdings.
Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF has accumulated $47.1 million in its asset base since its inception in late May and charges 59 bps in annual fees. It trades in an average daily volume of 34,00 shares (see: all the Healthcare ETFs here).
Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF (THNR)
Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF provides access to global companies involved in the pharmaceutical manufacturing of GLP-1 agonist or enablers of such businesses. It tracks the VettaFi Weight Loss Drug & Treatment Index and holds 27 stocks in its basket, with a heavy concentration on the top two firms.
Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF charges 59 bps in annual fees and has AUM of $4.4 million. It trades in an average daily volume of 3,000 shares.
GLP-1, Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF (HRTS)
GLP-1, Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF seeks to provide long-term growth of capital by investing in GLP-1 and weight loss companies leading the fight against obesity and cardiometabolic diseases. It holds 45 stocks in its basket with a modest concentration on the top firms.
GLP-1, Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF has AUM of $88.6 million and charges 75 bps in annual fees. It trades in a volume of 25,000 shares a day on average.
Zacks Investment Research
Health care stocks were falling late Tuesday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index dropping 1.4% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) shedding 1.2%.
The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) eased 0.3%.
In corporate news, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic is "very likely" to be one of the next drugs to face price negotiations with the US government, a company executive said Tuesday at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference in New York, Bloomberg reported. Novo shares were falling 3.4%.
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals shares jumped 7% after JMP Securities initiated coverage on the stock with outperform.
Moderna shares rose 4% after the company received Health Canada's approval for its updated Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine targeting the KP.2 sub-lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in people six months of age and older.
Cigna said its Express Scripts by Evernorth unit sued the Federal Trade Commission in Missouri federal court, demanding a retraction of the agency's July 2024 drug pricing report on the pharmacy benefit manager industry. Cigna shares fell 3%.
Health care stocks were falling late Tuesday afternoon with the NYSE Health Care Index dropping 1.4% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) retreating 1.2%.
The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) eased 0.3%.
In corporate news, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic is "very likely" to be one of the next drugs to face price negotiations with the US government, a company executive said Tuesday at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference in New York, Bloomberg reported. Novo shares were falling 3.3%.
Eli Lilly and Company’s LLY stock has risen 21.1% in six months compared with an increase of 10.5% for the industry. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500 as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Lilly has seen unparalleled success with its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound. In the past couple of years, it has received approvals for several new drugs like Kisunla, Omvoh and Jaypirca and witnessed pipeline and regulatory success. Its new drugs have been contributing significantly to its top-line growth in 2024. Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in areas like obesity, diabetes and Alzheimer’s.
Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze what is driving the stock price gain and how to play the stock.
Mounjaro & Zepbound: Key Top-Line Drivers for Lilly
Mounjaro and Zepbound include the same compound tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist (GIP/GLP-1 RA). The GLP-1 segment is a very important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity. Mounjaro was approved in May 2022 for type II diabetes. Zepbound was launched in November 2023 to treat obesity.
Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. Since 2020, Lilly has committed more than $18 billion to build, upgrade or acquire facilities in the United States and Europe, and the benefit of these investments is showing now as the supply of the drugs is increasing. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated sales of almost $6.7 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for around 44% of the company’s total revenues.
Tirzepatide is also being developed for other indications like obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), cardiovascular risks and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Approval for these expanded indications and launch in additional geographies can further boost sales.
Last month, Lilly launched a discounted single-dose vial version of Zepbound, which is expected to broaden access for obesity patients, especially those without insurance.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s NVO semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Wegovy sales have also remained strong. Though Novo Nordisk is also making efforts to improve the supply of its semaglutide drugs, it has not been as successful as Lilly yet.
LLY’s New Drugs & Pipeline Success
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past year. These included Omvoh for ulcerative colitis and BTK inhibitor Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Lilly expects its new drugs Mounjaro, Omvoh, Zepbound, Ebglyss and Jaypirca to drive its top line in the second half of 2024.
In July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Lilly believes Kisunla can generate blockbuster sales. Kisunla is only the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen BIIB and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi. Interestingly, Kisunla’s label mentions that physicians may consider stopping the dosing of Kisunla based on the reduction of amyloid plaques, which can prove to be a competitive advantage.
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has 11 new molecules currently in clinical development, including two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist. Several phase III data readouts are expected in 2025. While competitors like Amgen (AMGN) and Viking Therapeutics are making rapid progress in their GLP-1-based diabetes/obesity candidates, we believe they will take time to catch up.
LLY Premium Valuation, Rising Estimates
The stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2024 have risen from $13.72 to $16.49 per share over the past 60 days. For 2025, earnings estimates have risen from $19.42 to $23.97 per share over the same timeframe.
LLY Estimate Movement
Invest in LLY's Stock
Lilly has consistently reported strong revenues and profits and dealt well with expiring patents and increasing competition. The stupendous success of Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of more than $840 billion. Lilly’s stock has gone up by more than 730% in the past five years, mainly due to its solid pipeline potential, particularly its obesity drugs. The stock is also trading above its 200-day moving average since past several months and started trading above its 50-day moving average from early September.
Lilly’s revenue growth is being driven by higher demand for Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio and others, which will make up for declining sales from Trulicity. Incremental contribution for new drugs, rapid pipeline progress in areas like obesity, diabetes and Alzheimer’s and regular M&A activity will keep the stock afloat.
Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio currently based on its strong overall financial performance and robust drug pipeline. Consistently rising earnings estimates clearly highlight analysts’ optimistic outlook for further growth. Though LLY currently trades at a premium to the industry, investors should still consider adding this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock as the company is on a roll, achieving key clinical and regulatory victories and delivering exceptionally strong financial performance.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
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