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By Robb M. Stewart
Barrick Gold suspended most of the operations at a mine in Papua New Guinea in an effort to safeguard employees after two workers were killed in violence off site.
The majority of operations at the Porgera gold mine have been suspended until Thursday while the government works to restore law and order in the surrounding area, the operation said in a statement.
The company said two employees were killed in violence sparked by what has been described as a tribal conflict in the area, not related to the mine or its activities. The government has implemented a state of emergency, it said.
The Papua New Guinea Post-Courier on Monday reported that two mine security officers were among 30 people killed in fighting in recent weeks in a giant mining township in the country's Enga province. The two workers were killed while waiting for transport after work, the newspaper said.
The Porgera mine resumed operations in December after being halted in April 2020. The operation received a new special mining lease last year as part of an arrangement that saw Barrick's stake in the mine fall to 24.5% from 47.5%. Porgera is 51% held by Papua New Guinea government and local owners and 49% by a Barrick affiliate that the Toronto-based miner owns equally with Zijin Mining.
Barrick has forecast Porgera will contribute between 50,000 and 70,000 ounces of gold to the 3.9 million to 4.3 million the company expects to produce this year.
Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com
Barrick Gold Corporation GOLD stated that it sees 30% growth in the production of gold-equivalent ounces from its existing assets by the end of this decade, while continuing to unlock the value embedded in its portfolio. At the Gold Forum Americas, GOLD highlighted that it remains alert to potentially value-accretive opportunities arising from industry consolidation. However, the company enjoys the advantage of doing so from an asset base that will support organic growth well into the future.
Five years ago, Barrick set out to build a sustainably profitable gold and copper business focused on world-class assets. The company did not have to acquire these assets at a premium; they were already embedded in the merged portfolio of Barrick and Randgold, requiring only the unlocking of their value. Barrick boasts six Tier One gold mines, with more in development. Its long-term plans are centered on high-quality orebodies with industry-leading grades, which are driving improved cost profiles. In addition to its robust gold portfolio, GOLD is expanding its copper business to meet the rising demand for the strategic metal, enhancing its growth options with copper-gold porphyries.
Barrick highlighted three world-class gold opportunities, all located in Nevada, which it considers the premier mining jurisdiction globally. The recently-commissioned Goldrush mine is ramping up to a targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. In Nevada, the 14-million-ounce Leeville project is expected to be a significant growth driver, with the potential to double or triple Carlin’s reserves and extend its life beyond 2045.
On the copper side, two major projects are progressing toward first production in 2028. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 400,000 tons of copper and 500,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. In Zambia, the Lumwana Super Pit project is set to double the mine’s production over a mine life of more than 30 years.
Barrick Gold Corporation Price and Consensus
Barrick Gold Corporation price-consensus-chart | Barrick Gold Corporation Quote
Mining requires constant replacement of the ounces it depletes. GOLD is a leader in orebody expansion and has more than replaced the gold reserves it has mined in the past five years. The newly added ounces are of the same or better grade than reserves that were mined.
Since 2019, Barrick has built an industry-leading balance sheet, reducing net debt by $3.5 billion, investing $11.2 billion in life-of-mine plans for key mines and returning more than $5 billion to shareholders. The company’s strong operating cash flows provide the financial flexibility to fund its growth projects.
Despite these achievements, Barrick believes its shares remain undervalued. According to analysts’ consensus net asset value calculations, the value of Barrick’s interest in Nevada Gold Mines and its copper portfolio almost exceeds the company’s current market capitalization. This implies that the rest of Barrick’s business, including its interest in three Tier One gold mines outside Nevada, the world-class Fourmile project and its development pipeline, is valued at only $3.3 billion. Furthermore, this valuation does not account for the company’s exploration teams’ unparalleled success in discovering new ounces. Based on the current share price, GOLD believes the case for investing in its stock is compelling.
Barrick’s shares have gained 25.4% in the past year compared with a 38.7% rise in the industry.
Zacks Rank & Key Picks
Barrick currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are IAMGOLD Corporation IAG, Eldorado Gold Corporation EGO and Hawkins, Inc. HWKN. While IAMGOLD and Eldorado Gold sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Hawkins carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IAMGOLD’scurrent-year earnings is pegged at 41 cents per share, indicating a rise of 355.6% from the year-ago level. IAG’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 200%. The stock has surged nearly 118.6% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eldorado Gold’s current year earnings is pegged at $1.35 per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 136.8%. EGO beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 430.3%. The company's shares have surged nearly 73.8% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hawkins’ current fiscal-year earnings is pegged at $4.14 per share, indicating a rise of 15.3% from the year-ago level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWKN’s current fiscal-year earnings has increased 12.8% in the past 60 days.The stock has appreciated around 100.4% in the past year.
Zacks Investment Research
This year has been a record breaker for gold, as the safe-haven metal has surged to all-time highs on the back of heavy central bank buying, sticky inflation, and persistently elevated geopolitical tensions. Spot gold prices are up 24.5% on a year to date basis, with the popular currency hedge outperforming both the S&P 500 Index (+18.1% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite ($NASX) (+17.4% YTD). Most recently, December gold futures (GCZ24), the most active contract, set a new high as recently as Monday's session, peaking north of $2,617 per ounce.
While Vice President Kamala Harris and former POTUS Donald Trump have stayed close in presidential polls, analysts at Saxo Bank recently noted that gold should come out as a winner no matter who takes this November's election. “Either administration would inevitably expand the deficit in an economic slowdown,” wrote the firm's Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. "It doesn’t appear either party is set to deliver on fiscal austerity, which raises inflation risks, a gold positive."
ETF issuer Global X agrees that higher gold prices are likely to continue, "potentially supported by likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the possibility of a ‘higher for longer’ inflationary environment, and recently robust physical market demand,” and adds that it sees likelihood of particular upside for gold miners, given the group's attractive valuations.
For investors who might be looking to add broad exposure to gold miners or participate in rising gold prices more directly, here are three popular gold ETFs that could rise alongside the precious metal.
1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Established in 2004 as a trust that holds physical bullion, SPDR Gold Shares is the world's largest physically backed gold ETF, with assets under management (AUM) of about $72.3 billion. The ETF holds physical gold bars and issues shares representing those holdings. The price of GLD shares is designed to track the price of gold bullion, minus the ETF's expenses. State Street Global Advisors acts as the trustee of the SPDR Gold Shares.
Up 24.2% on a YTD basis, GLD has an expense ratio of 0.40%. Its average daily share volume is close to 6 million, making it extremely liquid.
Notably, for investors who want to play gold via options, GLD is a strong choice; the fund's calls and puts are actively traded, with weekly expiration dates available.
2. ProShares Ultra Gold 2X ETF (UGL)
Founded in 2009, the ProShares Ultra Gold 2X ETF is a leveraged ETF designed to provide investors with twice the daily return (or loss) of the gold price, as measured by the Bloomberg Gold Subindex. This means that UGL aims to deliver a 2x daily return on gold's price movement. The fund's AUM currently stands at $315.15 million.
Shares of the ETF are up 43.6% on a YTD basis, with an expense ratio of 0.95%. UGL's average daily share volume is around 170,000, though options volume on the fund is very light.
As is typical with most leveraged ETFs, ProShares warns that the targeted leverage goals of the fund may deviate significantly beyond holding periods longer than one day. However, for investors seeking amplified gains who don't mind the heightened risk (and fees), UGL could be worth considering.
3. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
We conclude our list of gold ETFs with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF , the third-largest gold ETF in the country with an AUM of $15.2 billion. GDX seeks to track the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, which is composed of companies involved in gold mining and exploration. By investing in this ETF, investors can gain exposure to the gold mining industry without having to invest directly in individual mining companies.
GDX is up 27.4% on a YTD basis. It also has healthy liquidity, with an average daily volume of about 17 million shares. The fund also has a fairly active options market, including weekly expiration dates.
GDX offers a dividend yield of 1.25%, and carries an expense ratio of 0.51%.
The fund's top three holdings consist of Newmont Mining (15.27%), Agnico-Eagle Mines (10.21%), and Barrick Gold (9.05%).
On the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The leading gold miner, Barrick Gold , is projecting a 30% growth in gold-equivalent ounces from its existing assets by the end of the decade.
Speaking at the Gold Forum Americas in Colorado Springs on Tuesday, CEO Mark Bristow pointed out the company's differing approach in the era of M&A, with the latest multi-billion transaction occurring just days ago.
"Chronic underinvestment in exploration, which I have often flagged at this forum, has led to a dearth of new projects, forcing companies into M&A," Bristow noted, elaborating on the company's asset base for prolonged organic growth.
"We have six Tier One gold mines with more in the making, and our long-term plans are based on quality orebodies with industry-leading grades," he said.
Now read: Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Higher, Takes A Downbeat Stance On Iron Ore
One of Barrick's key growth regions is Nevada, which Bristow described as "the world's premier mining jurisdiction." The newly commissioned Goldrush mine is set to ramp up to 400,000 ounces per year by 2028. Adjacent to Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile project, which boasts gold grades double that of Goldrush, making it a tier-one mine in the making.
Additionally, the 14-million-ounce Leeville project is positioned to significantly enhance Carlin's reserves, potentially extending its life beyond 2045 and becoming a major growth driver for the company.
Beyond gold, Barrick is also expanding its copper portfolio, leveraging the rising demand for the strategic metal. In its second phase, the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is expected to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper and 500,000 ounces of gold annually.
Meanwhile, the Lumwana Super Pit in Zambia, which should complete a feasibility study by year's end, is slated to double its production over a 30-year life. This move should expand Barrick's presence in the copper sector and diversify its revenue streams.
Barrick's growth plans get a boost from prudent financial management. Since 2019, the company has reduced its net debt by $3.5 billion, invested $11.2 billion in long-term mine plans, and returned over $5 billion to shareholders.
This solid financial position and robust operating cash flows provide Barrick with the flexibility to fund usually expansive commodity production growth.
However, Bristow believes the market is undervaluing the company, which trades at 14.4 times its forward earnings.
"Based on analysts' consensus net asset value calculations, the value of just our interest in Nevada Gold Mines and our copper portfolio almost exceeds our current market capitalization," he said.
Read Next:
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