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Stocks held by consumer-lending firms fell last week after Wall Street executives warned of lower-income borrowers’ struggling to pay bills.
What Happened: Banking executives at a recent Barclays conference in New York noted how delinquencies are on the rise, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The average interest rate on a credit card as of May was 21.51%, up from around 15% in 2019, Federal Reserve data shows.
About 9.1% of credit card balances turned delinquent over the past 12 months to mark the highest rate in over a decade, according to an August report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
"What that tells you is if people do get behind on their payments in this environment, it's tougher to get out of them," TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch said.
Why It Matters: Bread Financial, a credit card company that serves lower-income borrowers, said it expects higher charge-off rates — balances that banks write off as a result of lack of payments — this year.
Late payments and charge-offs on auto loans were higher than expected in July and August as borrowers grapple with the cost of living and a worsening labor market, Ally Financial Inc. CFO Russ Hutchinson said.
This worried investors because car payments are usually the last bills to go delinquent because cars are needed for transportation.
The average interest rate on a 60-month loan for a new car was 8.2% as of May, according to Fed data, up from 5.3% in 2019.
Over the past year, roughly 8% of auto loans turned delinquent, according to the New York Fed, the highest rate in over a decade.
Price Action: Consumer-lending companies trended upward into Tuesday’s early afternoon trading.
Car-loan providers also rose on Tuesday.
Read Now:
Image: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Top Wall Street analysts changed their outlook on these top names. For a complete view of all analyst rating changes, including upgrades and downgrades, please see our analyst ratings page.
Considering buying GOOGL stock? Here’s what analysts think:
Read More:
Latest Ratings for GOOGL
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
Feb 2022 | MKM Partners | Maintains | Buy | |
Feb 2022 | Mizuho | Maintains | Buy | |
Feb 2022 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight |
View More Analyst Ratings for GOOGL
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Shares of Ally Financial ALLY, one of the leading auto lenders, tumbled 16.6% last week. This was steeper than the industry’s decline of 0.4%.
One-Week Price Performance
What Triggered the Sell-off in the ALLY Stock?
If you observe the above price chart, you will see that Ally Financial shares plunged on Tuesday, Sept. 10 and remained on that level till the end of the week.
On Sept. 10, Russ Hutchinson, ALLY’s chief financial officer, presented at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in New York. During the conference, he warned of the deteriorating credit condition of its borrowers.
Hutchinson said, “Our borrower is struggling with high inflation and cost of living, and now, more recently, a weakening employment picture.” He also noted that the company is witnessing increased delinquencies in its retail auto-loan business. Demand for auto loans is also subdued because of higher rates.
In July and August, ALLY’s delinquencies rose about 20 basis points (bps) above what was expected. Further, its net charge-offs or NCOs (debts that are not likely to be recovered) in the retail auto business were 10 bps higher than expectations in these two months.
Hutchinson stated that the company’s NCO rate is expected to rise further in the coming months (especially in the 61-plus-day delinquency bucket) as a large number of borrowers are struggling amid the weakening economic outlook.
What Next for Ally Financial?
As ALLY stock plunged last week, it is now trading at a loss in the year-to-date time frame. On the other hand, the industry gained 9.8%.
Its close peers – Capital One COF and SLM Corporation SLM – are better off. Shares of COF have rallied 6% so far this year and SLM is up 11%.
Year-to-Date Price Performance
Now, Ally Financial’s focus will be on managing capital levels and expenses. Nonetheless, Hutchinson noted that, for now, the company’s 2024 guidance remains unchanged.
ALLY expects loan losses to increase in 2024. Retail auto NCO rates are projected to be approximately 2.1% (a rise from 1.9% expected earlier), while consolidated NCOs are likely to be in the 1.45-1.5% range.
With the Federal Reserve embarking on its first interest rate cut since March 2020 later this week, Ally Financial will likely gain from it. The company’s net interest margin (NIM) in the third quarter is expected to expand in the low end of the 5-15 bps range from 3.3% in the second quarter of 2024.
The metric will rise further in the fourth quarter and reach 3.45-3.50%. This will result in a full-year 2024 NIM of almost 3.30%. NIM is expected to touch 4% by the end of 2025 as deposits eventually reprice in a lower interest rate environment.
Hence, rate cuts are expected to be immensely beneficial for ALLY’s top and bottom lines.
Sales Estimates
EPS Estimates
Nonetheless, as the company is expected to witness an increase in loan losses in the near term, its earnings will be under pressure. Hence, analysts are moving their earnings estimates lower over the past seven days.
Estimate Revision Trend
Also, ALLY stock is trading below its 50-day simple moving average. This is often seen as a bearish signal. This movement suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend, at least in the short term.
50-Day Moving Average
While it can easily be said that ALLY stock is a good long-term investment option, investors need to keep an eye on management comments and the third-quarter 2024 results (to be announced next month) before making any investment decision.
Currently, Ally Financial carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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