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Shares of Potbelly Corporation PBPB have gained 8.7% in the past three months, outperforming the industry’s 5.3% growth. Despite facing macroeconomic pressures, the company’s ability to grow in a tough environment, alongside its successful expansion strategy, has caught the attention of investors. But does this mean it’s time to buy PBPB stock?
Major Growth Drivers for PBPB Stock
Franchise Expansion: Potbelly’s growth strategy revolves around aggressive franchising, and the company is making significant progress in expanding its footprint. With 663 open and committed shops, Potbelly is on track to reach its long-term goal of 2,000 units across the United States. Franchise expansion provides Potbelly with a capital-light growth model, allowing the company to open more stores while minimizing risk. The company is optimistic about the franchise model's potential to fuel sustained growth, as Potbelly continues to sign deals in new markets, including its entry into Georgia.
Digital Transformation: Potbelly has made significant strides in growing its digital sales. During the second quarter of 2024, digital channels accounted for 40% of total shop sales, up 200 basis points year over year. The company’s enhanced loyalty program, Potbelly Perks, is playing a major role in this success. Customers who join the Perks program demonstrate increased frequency in visits and higher engagement, making it a powerful tool for customer retention and sales growth. The ongoing shift toward Potbelly-owned digital channels also enhances profitability, as it reduces reliance on third-party platforms. As Potbelly continues to innovate in this space, it is likely to drive higher frequency and increased sales from its growing base of loyal customers.
Value-Driven Menu: With inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending, Potbelly has positioned itself as a value-driven brand. The introduction of the $7.99 Everyday Value Combo has been a notable success, attracting price-conscious customers while still protecting margins. This value-driven menu strategy has not only driven incremental sales but has also boosted customer satisfaction and return intent, making Potbelly a go-to option in a price-sensitive market.
Strong Future Outlook: Potbelly is set to continue expanding, with plans to open at least 30 new shops in 2024 and even more in 2025. The strong performance of recently opened shops, which are outperforming sales forecasts, is another indicator of the company’s successful market planning and operational execution. While the broader economic environment remains uncertain, Potbelly’s proactive approach to customer value, operational efficiency and digital transformation ensures that it is well-positioned for future growth.
The Bottom Line: Should You Buy PBPB Now?
Potbelly’s recent success is undeniable. The company is firing on all cylinders — expanding through franchising, transforming digitally and offering great value to customers. However, PBPB stock is currently trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 33.10X, well above the industry average of 24.59X. This high valuation, combined with an uncertain economic climate, means that it may not be the best time now to dive into a fresh purchase.
For current shareholders, holding onto your PBPB stock and watching how the company continues to grow seems like a smart move. But for new investors, it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point before jumping in.
PBPB's Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
PBPB currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector include Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL and El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Texas Roadhouse has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. TXRH’s shares have risen 65.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXRH’s 2024 sales and earnings per Share (EPS) indicates 15.6% and 39.2% growth, respectively, from the year-earlier actuals.
Cracker Barrel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. CBRL’s shares have declined 38.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s 2024 EPS indicates 0.94% growth from the year-earlier actuals.
El Pollo Loco Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 52.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS indicates 2% and 12.7% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.
Zacks Investment Research
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH has been on a sizzling run this year, with its stock climbing an impressive 35.4%, outpacing the industry’s modest 1.9% growth. But what’s fueling this surge and is there still room for investors to enjoy more gains?
The company’s stellar performance can be attributed to a combination of strong same-store sales, a growing digital presence and aggressive expansion initiatives. Not only has Texas Roadhouse exceeded earnings expectations in four of the last five quarters but also analysts are bullish on its future. Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been raised by 4.5% and 4%, respectively, signaling confidence in the company’s outlook.
Major Growth Drivers for TXRH Stock
Same-Store Sales and Traffic Gains: TXRH continues to benefit from impressive same-store sales performance. In the second quarter of 2024, Texas Roadhouse’s same-store sales increased 9.3% year over year, reflecting a robust demand for the brand’s offerings. The upside was driven by a rise in guest traffic along with an increase in our per-person average check. The increase in store weeks was due to new store openings.
The company’s ability to maintain strong traffic growth is underpinned by its commitment to providing a high-quality dining experience. Texas Roadhouse’s traffic rose 4.5% in the second quarter, which, combined with a 4.8% increase in average check, led to solid sales momentum. The brand’s unique proposition, centered on value and customer loyalty, has kept it competitive in the casual dining industry despite rising competition and promotional activity from rivals.
Beyond Texas Roadhouse - Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers: TXRH operates not only the Texas Roadhouse brand but also Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers, both of which are gaining significant traction. During the second quarter, Bubba’s 33 reported impressive weekly sales of $123,000 and continues to build guest loyalty. Jaggers, the company’s quick-service brand, witnessed rising consumer awareness, with weekly sales of $73,000. Additionally, Jaggers is expanding its international footprint, with its first franchise location set to open in South Korea. This multi-brand strategy diversifies Texas Roadhouse’s revenue streams and boosts long-term growth potential.
Tech-Driven Efficiency: Texas Roadhouse continues to invest in technology, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer experience. In the second quarter, the company completed the rollout of its "Roadie First" technology system, which enhances mobile accessibility for employees.
Moreover, Texas Roadhouse is investing in digital kitchen upgrades, with a full rollout expected by 2025. These enhancements aim to streamline service, reduce wait times and boost overall efficiency, which will not only improve margins but also strengthen its competitive edge in a fast-evolving dining landscape.
What’s Next for Texas Roadhouse?
The company’s growth story shows no signs of slowing down. In the first four weeks of third quarter 2024, same-store sales are up by 8%, continuing the momentum from the previous quarter. Texas Roadhouse’s disciplined approach to menu pricing is helping it maintain its value proposition, even inflationary pressures remain a concern. With strong traffic, expanding brands and technology investments set to enhance margins, Texas Roadhouse looks well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory.
Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
TXRH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector include Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL, Potbelly Corporation PBPB and El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Cracker Barrel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. CBRL’s shares have declined 38.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s 2024 earnings per share (EPS) indicates 0.94% growth from the year-earlier actuals.
Potbelly Corporation has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 77.5%, on average. The stock has dropped 1.1% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBPB’s fiscal 2024 EPS implies 33% growth on 6.5% lower revenues from the year-ago levels.
El Pollo Loco Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 52.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS indicates 2% and 12.7% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors looking for stocks in the Retail - Restaurants sector might want to consider either Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) or Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks? Let's take a closer look.
Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The proven Zacks Rank emphasizes companies with positive estimate revision trends, and our Style Scores highlight stocks with specific traits.
Currently, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Chipotle Mexican Grill has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell). This system places an emphasis on companies that have seen positive earnings estimate revisions, so investors should feel comfortable knowing that CBRL is likely seeing its earnings outlook improve to a greater extent. But this is just one piece of the puzzle for value investors.
Value investors are also interested in a number of tried-and-true valuation metrics that help show when a company is undervalued at its current share price levels.
The Style Score Value grade factors in a variety of key fundamental metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a number of other key stats that are commonly used by value investors.
CBRL currently has a forward P/E ratio of 12.68, while CMG has a forward P/E of 53.21. We also note that CBRL has a PEG ratio of 1.04. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.41.
Another notable valuation metric for CBRL is its P/B ratio of 2.11. The P/B is a method of comparing a stock's market value to its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. By comparison, CMG has a P/B of 21.27.
These metrics, and several others, help CBRL earn a Value grade of A, while CMG has been given a Value grade of F.
CBRL sticks out from CMG in both our Zacks Rank and Style Scores models, so value investors will likely feel that CBRL is the better option right now.
Zacks Investment Research
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors rely on traditional forms of analysis on key valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are undervalued, leaving room for profits.
Luckily, Zacks has developed its own Style Scores system in an effort to find stocks with specific traits. Value investors will be interested in the system's "Value" category. Stocks with both "A" grades in the Value category and high Zacks Ranks are among the strongest value stocks on the market right now.
One stock to keep an eye on is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL). CBRL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 11.81 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 24.56. CBRL's Forward P/E has been as high as 16.59 and as low as 9.19, with a median of 12.86, all within the past year.
Investors will also notice that CBRL has a PEG ratio of 0.97. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. CBRL's PEG compares to its industry's average PEG of 1.70. Within the past year, CBRL's PEG has been as high as 7.15 and as low as 0.90, with a median of 2.18.
Value investors will likely look at more than just these metrics, but the above data helps show that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is likely undervalued currently. And when considering the strength of its earnings outlook, CBRL sticks out at as one of the market's strongest value stocks.
Zacks Investment Research
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. will release earnings results for its fourth quarter, before the opening bell on Thursday, Sept. 19.
Analysts expect the Lebanon, Tennessee-based company to report quarterly earnings at $1.10 per share, down from $1.79 per share in the year-ago period. Cracker Barrel projects to report quarterly revenue of $897.38 million for the quarter, compared to $836.73 million a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
On July 18, Cracker Barrel named Sarah Moore as new Chief Marketing Officer.
Cracker Barrel shares rose 3.1% to close at $40.45 on Monday.
Benzinga readers can access the latest analyst ratings on the Analyst Stock Ratings page. Readers can sort by stock ticker, company name, analyst firm, rating change or other variables.
Let's have a look at how Benzinga's most-accurate analysts have rated the company in the recent period.
Considering buying CBRL stock? Here’s what analysts think:
Read This Next:
Latest Ratings for CBRL
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dec 2021 | Benchmark | Initiates Coverage On | Hold | |
Nov 2021 | MKM Partners | Maintains | Neutral | |
Nov 2021 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Hold |
View More Analyst Ratings for CBRL
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO stock has shown remarkable performance in the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 and the industry. In the same time frame, LOCO has surged 62.5% compared with the industry’s 2.3% increase and the S&P 500’s 9.3% rise. The company is focused on repositioning itself for growth under the leadership of CEO Liz Williams. Williams, who has been in her role for about six months, is undertaking efforts to modernize the brand and improve unit-level margins.
As of Friday, the stock closed at $13.60, below its 52-week high of $14.25 but above its 52-week low of $8.11. It also outperformed other industry players like Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG, up 1.2%, Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR, down 14.1%, and Brinker International, Inc. EAT, up 49.5% in the past six months.
Stock Price Performance
Technical indicators suggest continued strong performance for LOCO. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving averages, signaling robust upward momentum and price stability. This technical strength underscores positive market sentiment and confidence in LOCO's financial health and prospects.
50-Day Moving Averages
Factors Favoring LOCO Stock Surge
The company is benefiting from an increase in system-wide comparable restaurant sales. In the fiscal second quarter, LOCO reported a 4.5% increase in system-wide comparable restaurant sales, driven by their iconic Fire-Grilled Chicken, focus on value offerings and consistent operations.
El Pollo Loco is taking a strategic approach to its cost-saving measures, ensuring that food quality and customer experience are enhanced throughout the process. The company made strategic hires, including a new chief development officer, to streamline operations and reduce unit build costs. These efforts are expected to improve franchise growth and financial performance in the coming years. A new prototype design is expected to reduce the unit build cost to $1.8 million, which will further fuel franchise growth in 2025.
By leveraging fresh leadership perspectives and the expertise of long-standing team members, LOCO aims to realize the benefits of these initiatives by fourth-quarter 2024. These savings are expected to help balance the investments being made. With the progress achieved so far and a clear plan for the year ahead, the company is optimistic about reaching 18% restaurant contribution margins by 2025, strengthening its confidence in sustainably achieving 18-20% margins in the future.
El Pollo Loco relaunched its fire-grilled burritos and introduced new creamy chipotle sauce and queso blanco at competitive price points, enhancing the value perception of its menu. This contributed to positive feedback and sales growth.
To drive growth, a new chief development officer and franchisee development incentives were introduced, to accelerate expansion in 2025. Management is committed to building a strong franchise pipeline and proving the brand’s geographic scalability.
Estimate Revision Favoring the LOCO Stock
Reflecting the positive sentiment around LOCO, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have raised their estimates for the current and next fiscal by 12.7% to 80 cents and 14.1% to 89 cents, respectively.
LOCO Trading at a Discount
The company is currently valued at a discount compared with the industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. LOCO’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15.7, significantly lower than the industry’s ratio of 24.57 and the S&P 500's ratio of 21.45.
P/E (F12M)
Conclusion
Despite the stock's impressive gain in the past six months, investors can still consider buying the stock. Strategic leadership under Williams and successful cost-saving initiatives are expected to improve margins and boost franchise growth. With the company's forward-thinking approach, including new menu innovations and unit-build cost reductions, along with upward revisions in earnings estimates and a favorable P/E valuation compared with the industry, the Zacks Rank # 2 (Buy) company presents a compelling opportunity for long-term growth at a discounted price.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
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