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Investors are on edge in the lead-up to the Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision that is expected to deliver the first cut to the federal funds rate in over four years.
The market is divided on the magnitude of the anticipated rate cut. Traders are assigning a 59% probability to a 50-basis-point cut, while a 41% chance is placed on a more modest 25-basis-point reduction. The size of the rate cut is crucial as it could trigger significant market reactions.
Should the Fed opt for a 50-basis-point cut, it may be perceived as an acknowledgment that interest rates are overly restrictive. This could lead to increased expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months, potentially fueling risk sentiment and driving stock prices higher.
Conversely, a 25-basis-point cut might disappoint investors who are betting on a more aggressive measure.
Since the start of 2022, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , has experienced an average move of plus or minus 1.3% during FOMC events, reflecting the market’s high sensitivity to Fed policy decisions.
Goldman Sachs equity analysts, including John Marshall, analyzed stock movements during the first rate cuts in the previous three Fed easing cycles (Sept. 18, 2007, July 31, 2019 and March 3, 2020).
The data highlights the average moves of several key S&P 500 stocks with liquid options during these periods.
Read Next:
Federal Reserve illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Investors interested in stocks from the Medical - Products sector have probably already heard of Phibro Animal Health (PAHC) and Abbott (ABT). But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look.
The best way to find great value stocks is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The proven Zacks Rank puts an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions, while our Style Scores work to identify stocks with specific traits.
Phibro Animal Health and Abbott are sporting Zacks Ranks of #2 (Buy) and #4 (Sell), respectively, right now. Investors should feel comfortable knowing that PAHC likely has seen a stronger improvement to its earnings outlook than ABT has recently. But this is just one factor that value investors are interested in.
Value investors also tend to look at a number of traditional, tried-and-true figures to help them find stocks that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.
The Style Score Value grade factors in a variety of key fundamental metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a number of other key stats that are commonly used by value investors.
PAHC currently has a forward P/E ratio of 15.58, while ABT has a forward P/E of 25.34. We also note that PAHC has a PEG ratio of 1.80. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. ABT currently has a PEG ratio of 2.94.
Another notable valuation metric for PAHC is its P/B ratio of 3.53. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. For comparison, ABT has a P/B of 5.20.
These are just a few of the metrics contributing to PAHC's Value grade of A and ABT's Value grade of C.
PAHC is currently sporting an improving earnings outlook, which makes it stick out in our Zacks Rank model. And, based on the above valuation metrics, we feel that PAHC is likely the superior value option right now.
Zacks Investment Research
The most recent trading session ended with Abbott (ABT) standing at $117.63, reflecting a +1.06% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 0.13% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.55%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.52%.
The maker of infant formula, medical devices and drugs's shares have seen an increase of 4.86% over the last month, surpassing the Medical sector's gain of 3.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.67%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Abbott in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $1.20, reflecting a 5.26% increase from the same quarter last year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $10.52 billion, indicating a 3.75% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $4.66 per share and revenue of $41.73 billion, indicating changes of +4.95% and +4.05%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Abbott. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company's business and profitability.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Abbott currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at its valuation, Abbott is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 24.97. This signifies no noticeable deviation in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 24.97 for its industry.
Investors should also note that ABT has a PEG ratio of 2.9 right now. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Medical - Products industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.1 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Medical - Products industry is part of the Medical sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 76, finds itself in the top 31% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
Zacks Investment Research
High Tide Inc. (HITI) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.01 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.02 per share. This compares to loss of $0.03 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 150%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.01 per share when it actually produced break-even earnings, delivering a surprise of 100%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
High Tide, which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Products industry, posted revenues of $96.04 million for the quarter ended July 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.50%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $93.17 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
High Tide shares have added about 36.8% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 18%.
What's Next for High Tide?
While High Tide has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for High Tide: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.01 on $97.24 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$0.03 on $375.72 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Medical - Products is currently in the top 31% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, Abbott (ABT), is yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024.
This maker of infant formula, medical devices and drugs is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +5.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Abbott's revenues are expected to be $10.52 billion, up 3.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Zacks Investment Research
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