Post-election regulatory environment is more important for Ethereum, altcoins: Bitwise CIO

The regulatory setting for Bitcoin is improving, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Wednesday, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins. That could be positive not just for bitcoin but especially for other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's price has been approaching new all-time highs in recent days, partly driven by momentum heading into the 2024 U.S. election on Nov. 5.

"Of course, in the short term, crypto favors a Trump victory over a Harris victory, but really, Bitcoin doesn't need Washington to succeed," Hougan told Yahoo Finance. "Institutions are moving into the space, adoption is rising, ETF flows are happening. I think we go higher either way."

Most national polls are still relatively split, though former President Trump's lead on Polymarket has continued to rise to its highest level yet, nearing 70%, while Vice President Harris is at her lowest odds since she took over the ticket in August. The Ethereum-based betting market's popularity surged this election season, with more than $2.6 billion in cumulative bets on the outcome.

The rising Polymarket odds of a Republican sweep for the presidency, Senate and House could pave the way for passing a series of crypto-related bills, Presto analysts said Tuesday. A Trump win would have more impact on Ethereum and other altcoins, according to the Bitwise CIO.

Regulatory clarity

"I think the regulatory clarity you're talking about actually matters more for the so-called altcoins, for Ethereum on down," Hougan said. "Those are more exposed to regulatory risks, so I would expect an altcoin rally, even more so than a Bitcoin rally in the event of a Trump win. But regardless, I think both are moving higher."

Hougan said Bitcoin already has more regulatory clarity than Ethereum and other digital assets thanks to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CFTC having declared it a commodity and the embrace of spot bitcoin ETFs. That's not true for solana, aptos and other altcoins, he said.

"I suspect if we get a new SEC, that will become clear, that will drive institutional adoption, and we'll see that rising tide lift all of those boats," Hougan said. In either case, he said 2025 will look even better than 2024.

Earlier this month, Bitwise predicted a bitcoin melt-up to the $80,000 level by the end of this year.

“To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way. And barring a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will, with the Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry,” Hougan wrote in an Oct. 9 memo to clients.

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Crypto analyst Tony Severino has said that the Bitcoin price is approaching the strongest part of the bull run. Based on his analysis, Tony provided insights into how high the flagship crypto could rise as it approaches its peak in this market cycle.

Bitcoin Price Target For Strongest Part Of This Bull Run

Tony revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price could reach a market top of $133,000 in this bull run. He explained that the BTC 2-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70, which has ignited the strongest part of every past bull run. In 2012, this led to a price surge of 11,000%. Meanwhile, it led to a price rally of 2,700% and 437% in the 2016 and 2020 bull run, respectively.

The analyst noted that each peak in the successive bull run has been roughly around 20% of the previous cycle peak. Therefore, 20% of the 437% rally recorded in the 2021 bull run will put the Bitcoin price at this $133,000 price target. A potential rise to this target would give those buying BTC at its current price level a return of around 87%.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also suggested buying the Bitcoin price as this level may not be a late entry. In an X post, he explained that the Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has crossed over its 365-SMA (Simple Moving Average), a development that often signals major bull rallies. He added that this golden cross has just happened again.

The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price increased by 236% the last time this happened. Therefore, this indicates that despite the recent rally above $73,000, there is still so much upside for the flagship crypto in this market cycle.

BTC Could Rise To $462,000

Ali Martinez provided a more bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price than Tony regarding how high the flagship crypto could rise in this bull run. In an X post, he noted that BTC peaked between the 1.618 and 2.272 Fibonacci retracement levels in the past bull cycles.

If the Bitcoin price were to follow a similar pattern, Martinez remarked that the next BTC top could land between $174,000 and $462,000. Predictions on what could mark the top for Bitcoin in this market cycle continue to differ, although the consensus remains that the flagship crypto would rise above $100,000.

Experts like Standard Chartered have even predicted that the Bitcoin price could rise above this $100,000 target this year if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $72,300, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Can decentralized finance (DeFi) address its hacking problem with another layer of decentralized tech? Israeli cybersecurity firm Ironblocks' new network is betting on it.

On Wednesday, the firm is beginning a phased roll-out of a new Web3 security layer it's developing, called Venn. The transaction pre-screening network seeks to create "a new economy" for crypto security, said creator Or Dadosh, also Ironblocks' CEO.

Venn plans to match security operators and their technical know-how with crypto apps that want extra eyes on their transaction flow. A participating DeFi app might pay out crypto rewards to auditors and cybersecurity firms who vet pending transactions, Dadosh said.

All this happens before any crypto transaction actually executes. In the Venn model, pending trades, swaps, borrows and transfers pass through its network first. Security operators flag and freeze any suspicious actions. They forward regular activity onto the blockchain for confirmation.

"It's just like a firewall in the Web2 world," Dadosh said.

DeFi heavy hitters including Ether.Fi and Ethena are joining Venn's public testnet, according to Dadosh. A bevy of security firms are, too. The network itself will be distributed across the firms, who act as node operators.

Can decentralized finance (DeFi) address its hacking problem with another layer of decentralized tech? Israeli cybersecurity firm Ironblocks' new network is betting on it.

On Wednesday, the firm is beginning a phased roll-out of a new Web3 security layer it's developing, called Venn. The transaction pre-screening network seeks to create "a new economy" for crypto security, said creator Or Dadosh, also Ironblocks' CEO.

Venn plans to match security operators and their technical know-how with crypto apps that want extra eyes on their transaction flow. A participating DeFi app might pay out crypto rewards to auditors and cybersecurity firms who vet pending transactions, Dadosh said.

All this happens before any crypto transaction actually executes. In the Venn model, pending trades, swaps, borrows and transfers pass through its network first. Security operators flag and freeze any suspicious actions. They forward regular activity onto the blockchain for confirmation.

"It's just like a firewall in the Web2 world," Dadosh said.

DeFi heavy hitters including Ether.Fi and Ethena are joining Venn's public testnet, according to Dadosh. A bevy of security firms are, too. The network itself will be distributed across the firms, who act as node operators.

Florida's chief financial officer proposed that the funds that support retired state workers should dabble in crypto, inspired by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's support for the U.S. government stockpiling bitcoin {{BTC}}.

"I believe this forethought and innovative thinking from a successful businessman like President Trump must not be taken for granted," state CFO Jimmy Patronis said in a letter to the executive director of Florida's State Board of Administration, advocating for his state to join others that have already made such investments. "Bitcoin is often called 'digital gold,' and it could help diversify the state’s portfolio and provide a secure hedge against the volatility of other major asset classes."

He suggested the organization that manages the state pensions that serve Florida's retired firefighters, teachers and other public workers should study how crypto investing may fit into one of its funds and offer "potential benefits we cannot afford to overlook," according to the letter dated on Tuesday.

Patronis, who is one of three trustees along with the governor and state attorney general, asked the organization to come back with a report that can inform state lawmakers before the next session. If Florida were to make that change, it would follow in the footsteps of states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

"There’s no telling what the future of cryptocurrency will be, but it’s important that the State of Florida stays ahead of the curve when considering new investments and providing the best returns for Floridians," he wrote.

Patronis indicated he'd been inspired by Trump's rhetoric earlier this year at a prominent Bitcoin conference in Nashville, where the former president spoke of a strategic crypto reserve for the U.S. Such an idea has also been discussed by U.S. lawmakers, though it hasn't yet made significant progress.

Florida's chief financial officer proposed that the funds that support retired state workers should dabble in crypto, inspired by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's support for the U.S. government stockpiling bitcoin {{BTC}}.

"I believe this forethought and innovative thinking from a successful businessman like President Trump must not be taken for granted," state CFO Jimmy Patronis said in a letter to the executive director of Florida's State Board of Administration, advocating for his state to join others that have already made such investments. "Bitcoin is often called 'digital gold,' and it could help diversify the state’s portfolio and provide a secure hedge against the volatility of other major asset classes."

He suggested the organization that manages the state pensions that serve Florida's retired firefighters, teachers and other public workers should study how crypto investing may fit into one of its funds and offer "potential benefits we cannot afford to overlook," according to the letter dated on Tuesday.

Patronis, who is one of three trustees along with the governor and state attorney general, asked the organization to come back with a report that can inform state lawmakers before the next session. If Florida were to make that change, it would follow in the footsteps of states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

"There’s no telling what the future of cryptocurrency will be, but it’s important that the State of Florida stays ahead of the curve when considering new investments and providing the best returns for Floridians," he wrote.

Patronis indicated he'd been inspired by Trump's rhetoric earlier this year at a prominent Bitcoin conference in Nashville, where the former president spoke of a strategic crypto reserve for the U.S. Such an idea has also been discussed by U.S. lawmakers, though it hasn't yet made significant progress.