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The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces an intense sell-off as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces an intense sell-off as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September. The CPI report showed that the annual headline inflation softened to 1.7%. Price pressures were expected to decelerate but at a slower pace to 1.9% from 2.2% in August. Month-on-month headline inflation remained flat.
The core CPI inflation – which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, oil, and tobacco – decelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 3.2%, from the estimates of 3.4% and the former reading of 3.6%. Services inflation, a closely watched indicator by Bank of England (BoE) officials, grew at a slower pace of 4.9% from 5.6% in August. A sharp deceleration in price pressures is expected to force traders to raise bets supporting interest rate cuts in each of the two policy meetings remaining this year.
Currently, financial market participants expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in one of the policy meetings scheduled in November and December.
Market experts were anticipating a slowdown in the service inflation as growth in the UK’s Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a wage growth measure that drives consumer spending, in the three months ending August was the slowest in two years. The wage growth measure rose expectedly by 4.9%, slower than the prior release of 5.1%.
The Pound Sterling falls vertically below the psychological support of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s London session. The US Dollar stays afloat near a more than two-month high as traders have priced in moderate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the remaining policy meetings this year, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding onto gains near 103.30. The Fed started the policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual size of 50 basis points (bps) in September.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data suggests that there will be interest rate cuts by 25 bps in the November and December meetings.
Traders have priced out expectations of another 50 bps rate cut in November after a string of better-than-expected United States (US) data for September, which showed signs of economic resilience. US data such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the ISM Services PMI grew at a robust pace, diminishing fears of an economic slowdown.
Apart from the upbeat US data, price pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace in September, signaling that the battle against inflation is far from over.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the monthly US Retail Sales data for September, which will be published on Thursday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have grown by 0.3%.
The Pound Sterling slides below 1.3000 against the US Dollar in European trading hours. The GBP/USD pair weakens after breaking below the four-day trading range of 1.3020-1.3100. The Cable was already under pressure after slipping below the upward-sloping trendline plotted from the 28 December 2023 high of 1.2827 earlier in October.
The near-term trend of the major appears to be vulnerable as the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.3135 and 1.3100, respectively, are sloping downwards.
A downside move in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 40.00 suggests a bearish momentum.
Looking down, the 200-day EMA near 1.2840 will be a major support zone for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the round-level figure of 1.3100.
Dutch chipmaker ASML sent shockwaves through the broader equity market yesterday. In its earnings report that it accidentally published one day ahead of schedule, Europe’s high-profile tech company cut the outlook for next year amid far less orders than investors expected. The EuroStoxx50 fell of a cliff after word from the economy-sensitive company got out, eventually tumbling about 2%.
US stock markets ate the dust, the chip sector and broader tech in particular. The Nasdaq slipped around 1%. Asian stocks this morning lose territory in most cases but recovered from intraday lows. Chinese shares flirt with the green ahead of tomorrow’s news conference by the country’s housing minister. Long-term US yields were pressured as another sharp drop in oil prices capped the recent rise of inflation expectations.
A disappointing NY manufacturing index (-11.9 vs +3.6 expected, from 11.5) and the risk-off resulted in losses of more than 9 bps (30-yr) eventually. The front end barely budged on any of the aforementioned triggers, suggesting markets are comfortable with current Fed pricing as we head into the November 5 US elections.
German rates fell 4.7-5.4 bps across the curve. The USD eked out additional technical gains. EUR/USD broke below the 1.10 neckline of the double top formation earlier this month and slipped sub 1.0907 (50% retracement of the 2024 YtD low-high) yesterday. The 1.08 area still looks to be its short-term destination with the journey unhindered by today’s empty economic calendar. USD/JPY’s rally ran into resistance around the 150 lever.
After a strong labour market report yesterday that pushed EUR/GBP back towards the YtD lows, UK inflation numbers this morning do the exact opposite. The pair jumps back higher (0.836) after the headline price level stabilized on a monthly basis to be 1.7% higher y/y. It’s the first sub 2% reading since April 2021 and fell short of a 1.9% consensus estimate. Underlying gauges such as core inflation (3.2%, down from 3.6%) and services inflation (4.9%, down from 5.6%) missed the bar for 3.4% and 5.2% respectively. Below-consensus PPIs topped it off.
Bank of England governor recently called for a more activist approach in monetary easing, provided inflation continues to decelerate. Market importance of today’s numbers therefore outweigh that of yesterday’s. A 25 bps November cut is priced in.
Inflation in New-Zealand dropped to 2.2% Y/Y in Q3 from 3.3% in Q2. It was the first time since March 2021 that annual inflation returned within the 1-3% target band of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. ‘Prices are still rising, but not as much as previously recorded’, consumer prices manager Nicola Growden of Statistics New Zealand said.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous quarter (was 0.4% in Q2), but this was still slightly below the 0.7% consensus estimate. Higher rent prices were the biggest contributor to annual inflation, up 4.5%. Price for local authority rates and payments increased by 12.2%. They were responsible for half of the quarterly 0.6% increase. Pharmaceutical prices increased 17% Q/Q. Tradables goods’ prices declined -0.2% Q/Q and -1.6% Y/Y. Non-tradeables rose 1.3% Q/Q and 4.9% Y/Y.
RBNZ expected inflation at 2.3% in its August monetary policy statement. Inflation returning to target probably will convince the RBNZ that it can further reduce policy restrictiveness in order to support poor growth. Markets discount another 50 bps reduction at the November 27 meeting. Some even see a chance of a 75 bps step (35%). The kiwi dollar continues to trade in the defensive this morning at NZD/USD 0.606.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York yesterday published its survey of consumer expectations. Consumers’ inflation expectations are mixed over the three horizons. Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and rose to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. Expectations on the labour market improved.
The probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased to 20.4% from 19.1% percent and the perceived probability of finding a job in the event of job loss increased to 52.7% from 52.3%. Year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0% and 4.9% respectively. Perceptions and expectations of credit access improved compared to a year ago. However, the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2 % from 13.6%, the highest reading of the series since April 2020.
Europe’s biggest company revealed its results a day earlier – by accident – and the results were not good at all. ASML booked about half of the orders pencilled in by analysts last quarter as demand outside AI continued to struggle. The company also cut its 2025 forecast and more details are to come, as the company wasn’t supposed to release earnings yesterday. Needless to say that ASML shares plunged 16% yesterday – the most in 26 years. The selloff dragged the Stoxx 50 down by 1.87%.
More bad news: stimulus measures that China announced by the end of September could’ve miraculously shown in the Q3 results of LVMH – which reported after the market close – but they did not. The Chinese didn’t rush to pop the champagne and to buy Vuitton bags as soon as they heard that China would be cutting the interest rates – among other measures – to reverse the fortunes of the country. LVMH results came as an early hint that the luxury item makers will have to wait longer before uncorking the champagne, on their side.
And the US’ advanced chipmakers didn’t have a good session, either, but for different reasons. The US announced yesterday that it will restrict the advanced chip exports from Nvidia to AMD to countries that do have connections to Gulf countries, for national security reasons as war in the Middle East is taking an uglier turn by the day. And well, the gulf countries are thirsty for AI and have deep pockets. The news resonated loudly across the chipmakers. Nvidia dived more than 4.50% from near record, AMD dropped more than 5%, and VanEck’s Semiconductor ETF took a 5% dive. Nasdaq 100 gave back 1.37%, as the S&P500 retreated 0.76% thanks to big US banks’ better-than-expected Q3 results.
Elsewhere, crude oil sold off heavily for the second session on relied that Israel is planning to hit Iran’s military rather than its energy structure. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $70pb level and rebounded to close the session with a 2% loss. US crude trades a touch below the $71pb this morning, the MACD index on the daily chart just turned negative supporting the idea that oil is back to its bearish trend. Resistance is seen near $72pb, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on summer retreat. The Chinese struggle and deteriorating global demand outlook are the major catalysts for potentially deeper losses. A move below the $70pb should pave the way to $65/67pb range.
Speaking of energy, Microsoft has announced – a few weeks earlier – that it would team up with Constellation energy to bring some nuclear reactors in the Three Mile Island back to life to satisfy its growing thirst for energy as AI is very, very energy-intensive, remember. Yesterday, Google announced that it’s investing in the development of next generation nuclear power by backing a company that’s building small modular reactors, from which it will buy energy when the sites start supplying energy. Capital inflows into nuclear have been stagnating for the past decade, but started gaining momentum since the war in Ukraine raised the urge of a rapid transition toward alternative energy sources that solar and wind alone can’t satisfy as our energy demands are rising very rapidly with AI. The investment world is turning toward the nuclear option: VanEck’s Uranium and Nuclear ETF is up by 73% since the war in Ukraine started and up by 62% since the beginning of 2023, when ChatGPT joined our lives. And the nuclear outlook is increasingly positive.
The US dollar index consolidated gains yesterday near the 100-DMA and half-way on the summer selloff. The EURUSD extended losses below the 1.09 mark and the euro bears are eyeing a further retreat toward and below the 200-DMA, near 1.0875. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets tomorrow and is expected to announce another 25bp cut. The headline inflation in the Eurozone lately dipped below the 2% policy target and European economies are struggling with Germany thought to be in mild recession. The only thing that could hold the ECB back from a dovish cut would be sticky core and services inflation. If that’s the case, the ECB could deliver a hawkish cut. In that case, we could see a rebound in the EURUSD but given the deteriorating fundamentals of the Eurozone and the resilience of the US economy, the single currency could and should lose more ground against the greenback.
And speaking of inflation and Europe, inflation in Britain not only fell below 2% in September but came in significantly lower than expected (1.7%y-o-y vs 1.9% expected). Although core inflation remains sticky near 3.2%, that number also surprised to the downside. British inflation’s downward trajectory, combined with slowing wages growth, emphasizes Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s latest comments that the bank will get ‘more aggressive’ on its rate policy. That meaningful dovish shift in BoE stance, backed by inflation data, will likely send Cable back below the 1.30 level.
Senator Elizabeth Warren and crypto lawyer John Deaton exchanged blows over crypto policy in their first debate in the race for a United States Senate seat.
Deaton, a Republican candidate for Massachusetts’ US Senate spot, called out Democrat rival and incumbent Warren during the Oct. 15 debate for focusing on building an “anti-crypto army” instead of prioritizing other issues impacting the lower and middle class in the state.
“With illegal immigration bankrupting the state, with inflation pricing regulator people out of the economy [...] why did this Senator wake up one day and say with all that, I will build an anti-crypto army,” Deaton said.
Warren claimed she’s “fine” with people who want to buy and sell crypto but wants to make sure the industry “follows the same rules” as banks and stockbrokers — namely consumer protection and counter-terrorism laws.
The Senator added she believes crypto is often used by terrorists, drug traffickers and rogue notions to finance their illicit activities.
Warren and Deaton both agreed that traditional banking has failed many Americans.
However, Deaton claimed banking access hasn’t been a priority for Warren — pointing to a December Senate Banking Committee hearing where Warren spoke to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and focused her line of questioning on crypto crime rather than banking failures.
“She had the CEO of JPMorgan Chase available for questioning and they finance the largest child sex trafficking operation in history with Jeffrey Epstein and Senator Warren didn’t ask a single question.”
Warren hit back, saying that 90% of the funds supporting Deation’s campaign to unseat her has come from the crypto industry and they’d expect “return on investment” should he make the Senate.
Deaton didn’t directly respond to the claim but said he often upsets the crypto industry with controversial takes and has beef with many “crypto billionaires.”
The faceoff with Warren came after Deaton won the Republican nomination for the US Senate in the Massachusetts primary election on Sept. 4.
Warren has a 22.5% lead on Deaton based on six polls, The Hill’s 2024 Elections data shows.
Deaton is bidding to break an 11-year streak as Democrats have controlled both of Massachusetts’ seats in the US Senate since 2013.
Headline CPI inflation eased in September to 1.6% year-on-year (y/y), below expectations for a 1.8% y/y print and less than the 2.0% y/y reading from August.
The deceleration was led by gasoline, which was down 10.7% y/y and 7.1% in September alone. Fears over weakening global economic growth have pulled down oil prices, which has fed through to cheaper prices at the pump.
Encouragingly, inflation in services has started to ease (4.0% y/y from 4.3% y/y in August). Shelter costs have been a big driver of services inflation, but with lower interest rates, mortgage interest cost inflation has decelerated (16.7% y/y from 18.8% y/y in August), while rent prices too are easing (8.2% y/y from 8.9% y/y in August). Another swing factor over the last few months has been the cost of air travel. With the end of the summer travel season, this category is starting to drop (-4.4% y/y).
The Bank of Canada’s preferred “core” inflation measures held firm at 2.4% y/y in September. On a three-month annualized basis, the average moved from 2.3% in August to 2.1% in September, essentially at the BoC’s target. This points to further easing in the core metrics in the months ahead.
With headline inflation now decisively below the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) target and core inflation looking likely to follow, inflation risks have eroded over the last few months. Below the surface, this trend looks to continue with housing costs finally starting to subside, with inflation excluding shelter running at a paltry 0.4% y/y. All in, the inflation outlook is looking a bit softer than we expected in our recently published forecast.
The BoC is scheduled to meet next week and debate over whether the central bank will go big with a 50 basis point cut is rising. Thus far, the bank has been predictable, with a steady streak of 25 bp cuts over the last three meetings. Given the persistent strength of the jobs market, the BoC would be validated in maintaining its steady rate cutting pace. On the other side, market participants are increasingly betting on a 50 bp cut, assuming that the BoC will focus on the downside risks now that headline inflation has moved closer to the bottom end of its target range. Either way, it will be a close call for the BoC next week.
The ringgit has shown stronger performance versus regional currencies, driven by investor confidence in the country's reform agenda.
Malaysia's Finance Minister II Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan said that their confidence is premised on the clear direction of the Madani Economy Framework and the implementation of policy reforms, including the Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act, as well as targeted subsidies for electricity, water, and diesel.
"The Madani Economy Framework is further supported by policies such as the New Industrial Master Plan 2030, which outlines the country's investment strategies and focus areas to support the economic transition towards greater prosperity, sustainability, and inclusiveness," he said.
He said this in a written reply read by Deputy Works Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan during a question-and-answer session in the Dewan Rakyat on Wednesday.
Amir Hamzah was replying to a question from Chong Zhemin (Pakatan Harapan-Kampar) on factors supporting the encouraging performance of the ringgit, which is projected to rise to 3.55 against the US dollar by end-2025.
According to the minister, the ringgit's performance this year has been driven by global market developments and strong domestic fundamentals, including the economy, inflation, and unemployment rates.
"With the shift in monetary policy stances of major global economies, particularly the US which has begun lowering its base rate, investor sentiment has also shifted as the interest rate differentials start to narrow.
"This development has increased investors' risk appetite for emerging-market currencies, including the ringgit," Amir Hamzah explained.
At the same time, he said the government and Bank Negara Malaysia are making coordinated efforts to encourage the repatriation and conversion of foreign investment income into ringgit by government-linked companies and corporates.
This has helped create more vibrant two-way flows in the domestic foreign exchange market, further supporting the strengthening of the local currency.
The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3070-1.3075 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the UK consumer inflation figures.
Heading into the key data risk, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) might be headed towards speeding up its rate-cutting cycle continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick offers some support to the currency pair and helps limit the downside.
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022 touched last month. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone.
This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the downside. Hence, a subsequent slide to the 1.3020 area, or a one-month low touched last Thursday, en route to the 1.3000 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. The downfall could extend towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around mid-1.2900s.
On the flip side, the 1.3100 round figure is likely to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.3125 horizontal zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the GBP/USD pair to aim to reclaim the 1.3200 mark. Spot prices could climb further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 1.3235-1.3240 region.
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