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Shares of Radian Group RDN closed at $35.15 on Tuesday, near its 52-week high of $37.86. Improving mortgage insurance portfolio, declining claims, a well-performing homegenius segment, a solid capital position and effective capital deployment are driving the price higher.
Radian Group continued to benefit from positive credit performance in the mortgage insurance portfolio. With strong persistency rates and the current positive industry pricing environment, RDN expects in-force portfolio premium yield to remain stable.
Shares have gained 23.2% year to date, outperforming the industry’s increase of 16.4%, the Finance sector’s rise of 14.3% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 18.1% in the said time frame.
RDN Outperforms Industry, Sector, S&P 500 YTD
RDN shares are trading well above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
RDN’s Northbound Estimate Revision Instills Confidence
Both the analysts covering the stock raised estimates for the current and next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RDN’s 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 6.5% and 1.7% north, respectively, in the past 60 days, reflecting analyst optimism.
RDN’s Return on Capital
Return on invested capital in the trailing 12 months was 8.2%, better than the industry average of 2.4%, reflecting RDN’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income.
Factors Acting in Favor of Radian
The company has intensified its focus on the core business and services with higher growth potential, ensuring a predictable and recurring fee-based revenue stream.
New business, combined with increasing annual persistency, should drive continued growth of the insurance-in-force portfolio. Radian’s mortgage insurance portfolio creates a strong foundation for future earnings.
RDN has been witnessing a declining pattern of claim filings. Thus, we expect paid claims to decrease further. A decline in loss and claims will strengthen the balance sheet and hence improve its financial profile.
The insurer has been strengthening its capital position with capital contribution, reinsurance transaction and cash position. This, in turn, aids the insurer to engage in wealth distribution.
RDN Shares Are Undervalued
RDN shares are trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.18, lower than the industry average of 2.60. Its pricing at a discount to the industry average gives a better entry point to investors.
Shares of other insurers like MGIC Investment Corporation MTG are trading at a multiple lower than the industry average, while that of Arch Capital Group ACGL are trading at a multiple higher than the industry average.
Parting Thoughts
Radian expects that the private mortgage insurance market will be approximately $300 billion in 2024, consistent with the prior year. It expects a healthy purchase market in 2024, driven by ongoing homebuyer demand and an expected decline in interest rates, which is a positive for mortgage insurers. The company believes that the resulting pent-up demand provides strong support for future purchase volume, which drives the growth in large and valuable insurance in-force portfolio.
The 9% increase in quarterly dividend in the first quarter of 2024 marks the fifth consecutive year in which RDN has increased the quarterly dividend, with a total increase of 96% over the past four years. Its current dividend yield of 2.7% betters the industry average of 2.5%, making it an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors.
Given its attractive valuation, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) mortgage insurer is a strong contender for addition to one’s portfolio.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of MGIC Investment Corporation MTG closed at $25.30 on Tuesday, near its 52-week high of $25.93. Solid insurance in force, a decline in loss and claims payments, lower delinquency, better housing market fundamentals and prudent capital deployment are driving the price higher.
Given the strong purchase market and potential share gains from the Federal Housing Administration, MGIC Investment expects strong premium writing. Increased persistency rate should continue to boost insurance in force.
Shares have gained 31.2% year to date, outperforming the industry’s increase of 15.8%, the Finance sector’s rise of 14.1% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 18.1% in the said time frame.
MTG Outperforms Industry, Sector, S&P 500 YTD
MTG shares are trading well above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
MTG’s Northbound Estimate Revision Instills Confidence
All three analysts covering the stock raised estimates for the current and next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTG’s 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 2.2% and 1.5% north, respectively, in the past 30 days, reflecting analyst optimism.
MTG’s Return on Capital
Return on invested capital in the trailing 12 months was 11.4%, better than the industry average of 2.4%, reflecting MTG’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income.
Factors Acting in Favor of MGIC Investment
The insurance-in-force portfolio is set to grow, banking on new business and increasing annual persistency. A higher level of new and existing home sales, an increased percentage of homes purchased for cash and an improved level of refinance activity in an improving housing market should help this largest private mortgage insurer in the United States grow.
MTG has been witnessing a declining pattern of claim filings. A decline in loss and claims will strengthen the balance sheet and improve the insurer’s financial profile.
The insurer is improving its capital position with capital contribution, reinsurance transactions and cash position. Both leverage and times interest earned ratios have been improving.
A solid capital position supports MTG in wealth distribution. The company currently has $724 million remaining in its authorization kitty through December 2026. Its share repurchase activity reflects continued strong mortgage credit performance.
MTG’s Optimistic Growth Outlook
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.76 per share, suggesting an increase of 9.1% on 4.7% higher revenues of $1.2 billion. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings per share is $2.76, flat year over year on 4.6% higher revenues of $1.3 billion. The long-term expected earnings growth rate is 6.8%.
MTG Shares Are Undervalued
MTG shares are trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.28, lower than the industry average of 2.60. Its pricing, at a discount to the industry average, gives a better entry point to investors.
Shares of other insurers like Radian Group RDN are trading at a multiple lower than the industry average, while that of Arch Capital Group ACGL are trading at a multiple higher than the industry average.
Parting Thoughts
MTG has been seeing improving housing market fundamentals, such as household formations and home sales and the current capital status. Higher premiums, outstanding credit quality and new business will continue to induce growth for MCIG.
The latest 13% increase in its quarterly dividend to 13 cents per share marked four straight years of dividend increases at a compound annual growth rate of 21%. Its current dividend yield is 2.1%.
Given its attractive valuation and upbeat prospects, this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) mortgage insurer is a strong contender for addition to one’s portfolio.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Leading insurer Aon plc AON continues to expand its analytics capabilities and gain from strong retention and new business generation. The company has seen its shares rise 17.3% in the past three months, outpacing the industry’s 15.2% growth. The company also outperformed the S&P 500’s return of 2.4% during this period. Currently trading at $349.20, AON remains just below its 52-week high of $353.54.
Given the impressive performance, can investors still consider buying AON stock, or should you book profits?
AON’s Three-Month Price Performance
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum. This proximity to its 52-week high underscores investor confidence and market optimism about this insurance brokerage company’s prospects.
Reasons to Like AON
Improving product offerings and expanding its product portfolio helps the company retainits client base and generate new businesses. For example, its recent launch of the newly integrated Radford McLagan Compensation Database will expand the analytics capabilities for its existing Human Capital clients. We expect more such moves to come in the future. This helps in organic revenue growth.
Prudent acquisitions and partnerships form one of the main growth strategies at the company and it has sealed many buyouts over the past few years to scale its business and expand product offerings. The company closed the NFP acquisition, a privately held middle-market property and casualty broker, in April 2024. It is expected to boost AON’s top line, driven primarily by incremental M&A.
The company continues to streamline operations, getting rid of less profitable assets and focusing more on improving efficiencies. Its Aon United restructuring program will support its margin expansionary targets in the long run. However, in the short run, charges from the program might tame profit growth a bit.
Its cash-generating abilities help in making shareholder-friendly moves. In 2023, the company bought back shares worth $800 million. It repurchased shares worth $500 million in the first half of 2024. It had around $2.8 billion of authorization left under its share repurchase program as of June 30, 2024. Its solid double-digit free cash flow growth outlook in the long term will allow management the financial flexibility to continue returning wealth to shareholders.
AON’s Favorable Valuation
From a valuation perspective, AON appears relatively cheap. The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 20.80X, lower than the industry average of 22.39X.
Estimates for AON
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 adjusted earnings for AON is currently pegged at $15.23 per share, indicating 7.7% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for next year suggests a further 14.4% jump. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 revenues signals 17.5% and 11.5% year-over-year growth, respectively.
Key Concerns for AON
There are a few factors that investors should keep an eye on.
The company’s long-term debt is 74.6% of total capital, significantly higher than the industry’s average of 48.4%. AON exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $974 million, significantly lower than long-term debt of $17.6 billion.
Its trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 8.2%, lagging behind the industry average of 9.7%. This indicates that the company is less efficient at generating returns from its invested capital compared to its peers, signaling weaker capital utilization.
Final Verdict: Hold AON Stock Now
While AON has strong long-term potential with a growing focus on expanding its product portfolio and scaling its business, the specific challenges facing the company cannot be ignored. AON remains one of the best-positioned professional services firms with a favorable valuation to achieve margin expansion.
Overall, the outlook is largely neutral for AON shares. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-Ranked Players
Investors interested in the broader Finance space may look at some better-ranked players like MGIC Investment Corporation MTG, Jackson Financial Inc. JXN and Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO. While MGIC Investment currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Jackson Financial and Brown & Brown carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGIC Investment’s current-year earnings suggests a 9.1% year-over-year increase. During the past month, MTG has witnessed one upward estimate revision against none in the opposite direction. The consensus mark for current-year revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a 4.7% increase from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jackson Financial’s current-year earnings is pegged at $18.49 per share, which indicates 44% year-over-year growth. It witnessed two upward estimate revisions in the past 60 days against no downward movement. The consensus mark for JXN’s current year revenues suggests a 116.7% surge from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brown & Brown’s 2024 earnings indicates 31% year-over-year growth. During the past 60 days, BRO has witnessed six upward estimate revisions against none in the opposite direction. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.8%.
Zacks Investment Research
Have you been paying attention to shares of Arch Capital Group (ACGL)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 10.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $114.69 in the previous session. Arch Capital Group has gained 53.4% since the start of the year compared to the 16.6% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 27.8% return for the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on July 30, 2024, Arch Capital reported EPS of $2.57 versus consensus estimate of $2.17 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 0.66%.
For the current fiscal year, Arch Capital is expected to post earnings of $9.01 per share on $15.56 billion in revenues. This represents a 6.63% change in EPS on a 15.33% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $9.23 per share on $16.98 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 2.46% and 9.16%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Arch Capital may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Arch Capital has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are D and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 12.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 13.6X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 12.8X versus its peer group's average of 13.2X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.06. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Arch Capital currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Arch Capital passes the test. Thus, it seems as though Arch Capital shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.
How Does ACGL Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of ACGL have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB). WRB has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of A.
Earnings were strong last quarter. W.R. Berkley Corporation beat our consensus estimate by 13.04%, and for the current fiscal year, WRB is expected to post earnings of $4.03 per share on revenue of $13.55 billion.
Shares of W.R. Berkley Corporation have gained 1.4% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 14.42X and a P/CF of 16.99X.
The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is in the top 8% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for ACGL and WRB, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
Zacks Investment Research
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL –September 18, 2024 – Zacks Equity Research shares Erie Indemnity ERIE, as the Bull of the Day and Dollar Tree DLTR, as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM, Barclays PLC BCS and Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL.
Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:
Bull of the Day:
Erie Indemnity, a current Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), issues, renews, and underwrites insurance products for personal liability, property, boat, recreational vehicles, home, flood, and auto. The company’s earnings outlook is notably bullish across all timeframes.
In addition to favorable earnings estimate revisions, the stock resides in the Zacks Insurance – Brokerage industry, currently ranked in the top 4% of all Zacks industries. Let’s take a closer look at how the company currently stacks up.
ERIE Reports Strong Growth
Since becoming a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on July 30th, ERIE shares have gained nearly 20%, widely outperforming relative to the S&P 500. Favorable quarterly results have helped the stock all year long in general, up 60% on a YTD basis.
Income-focused investors could find ERIE shares attractive, with the company currently sporting a shareholder-friendly 7.4% five-year annualized dividend growth rate paired with a sustainable payout ratio sitting at 50% of its earnings.
While the current yield has been pushed down by strong share performance, the company’s dividend growth can’t be overlooked.
Shares got a nice boost following its latest set of quarterly results, with the company posting 40% earnings growth on 18% higher sales. Earnings results have regularly exceeded our expectations, with the company beating the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate by an average of 12% across its last four releases.
Bottom Line
Investors can implement a stellar strategy to find expected winners by taking advantage of the Zacks Rank – one of the most powerful market tools that provides a massive edge.
The top 5% of all stocks receive the highly coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). These stocks should outperform the market more than any other rank.
Erie Indemnity would be an excellent stock for investors to consider, as displayed by its Zack Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Bear of the Day:
Dollar Tree, a discount retailer, offers a wide range of quality everyday general merchandise in many categories, including housewares, seasonal goods, candy, food, toys, health and beauty care, and many other consumer items.
Analysts have taken a bearish stance on the stock’s outlook, lowering their earnings expectations across the board and pushing it into an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
In addition, the company is in the Zacks Retail – Discount Stores industry, which is currently ranked in the bottom 25% of all Zacks industries. Let’s take a closer look at the company.
DLTR Faces Post-Earnings Pressure
DLTR’s recent quarterly results haven’t been positive, with the company falling short of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate by an average of 11% across its last four releases. Concerning its latest print, Dollar Tree fell short of both consensus earnings and revenue expectations, with EPS falling nearly 30% alongside a modest 0.7% sales increase.
Down nearly 50% in 2024, shares have regularly faced post-earnings selling pressure.
The company trimmed its current-year sales guidance following its latest release, helping explain the post-earnings share plunge. Analysts have revised their sales expectations accordingly as well, with the $30.1 billion expected for its current fiscal year (FY24) down 4% over the last year and reflecting a marginal 0.3% Y/Y climb.
A key piece of the Dollar Tree story lies in their consumer demographics. As a discount retailer, the company attracts many lower-income consumers looking for value, but the company is also more susceptible to economic slowdowns when these types of consumers get pinched the most.
Bottom Line
Narrowed guidance and weak quarterly results paint a challenging picture for the discount retailer’s shares in the near term.
Dollar Tree is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook.
For those seeking strong stocks, a great idea would be to focus on stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – these stocks sport a notably stronger earnings outlook paired with the potential to deliver explosive gains in the near term.
Additional content:
3 Financial Stocks to Buy in the Current Environment
To control inflation, the Fed raised interest rates for 10 straight policy meetings before finally opting for a rate pause in June 2023. It barely raised rates till the end of 2023 and promised at least three rate cuts in 2024. However, it is only in September of this year that we are finally going to see the first slashing of rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has continued to suggest that he is fairly certain of rate cuts this year, but the Fed would embark on that journey only after reviewing further data. From his recent remarks, as well as comments made by other Fed officials, it is now amply evident that the inflation level is at the mark that the Fed wants it to be at. That also indicates that we are going to witness the much awaited rate cuts from September itself. In fact, it is the extent of the rate cuts that is currently being debated.
While a September rate cut is almost a certainty, the Fed has resisted committing to further cuts as of now. Yet, with both consumer and producer-side inflation coming in line with expectations, investor mood has been upbeat about the Fed bringing down rates more than expected earlier. Per CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 69% likelihood that the Fed would announce a 50 basis point cut from its meeting.
This, however, does not indicate that interest rates are not going to come down rapidly. It merely addresses the problem of immediate relief needed by consumers. In reality, if rates fall by 50 basis points and are held at a target rate of 475-500, it is still pretty high. When interest rates are high, banks and other financial institutions generally see higher profitability due to increased lending rates. The gap between such lending rates is considered a long-term asset for banks. Also, short-term liabilities such as deposits increase and boost net interest margins.
Stocks of banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions go up with continuous interest rate hikes. This is because financial services companies can earn more on the money they have and on the credit they issue to their customers. As a result, the S&P 500 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) soared 10.1% year to date as of June 30.
Also, financial stocks are very popular investments on their own. Most companies within the sector issue dividends and are judged on the overall strength of their financial health. It is thus prudent that one adds a few to their portfolio.
Our Choices
The stocks below flaunt a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Rank #2 (Buy). The search was also narrowed down with a VGM Score of A or B. Here, V stands for Value, G for Growth and M for Momentum. The score is a weighted combination of these three metrics. Such a score allows you to eliminate the negative aspects of stocks and select winners. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a diversified financial institution that provides various financial products and services. CM’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 7.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 6.1% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a VGM Score of B.
Barclays PLC is a global financial services company. BCS’ expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 21.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 4.4% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a VGM Score of B.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance products company. ACGL’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 6.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 5% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a VGM Score of B.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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