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Amgen (AMGN) ended the recent trading session at $332.80, demonstrating a -0.73% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.03%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.04%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 0.2%.
Coming into today, shares of the world's largest biotech drugmaker had gained 2.22% in the past month. In that same time, the Medical sector gained 2.67%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.54%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Amgen in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is expected to report EPS of $5.13, up 3.43% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $8.51 billion, indicating a 23.24% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $19.49 per share and a revenue of $33.21 billion, signifying shifts of +4.5% and +17.82%, respectively, from the last year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Amgen. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.06% lower. Amgen currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, Amgen is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 17.2. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 23.02.
Also, we should mention that AMGN has a PEG ratio of 2.98. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.28 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is part of the Medical sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 79, putting it in the top 32% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Zacks Investment Research
Amgen (AMGN) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this world's largest biotech drugmaker have returned +2.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.5% change. During this period, the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which Amgen falls in, has gained 3.1%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Amgen is expected to post earnings of $5.13 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +6.1%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $19.49 points to a change of +4.5% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.1%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $20.53 indicates a change of +5.3% from what Amgen is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.1%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Amgen is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Amgen, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $8.51 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +23.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $33.21 billion and $34.13 billion estimates indicate +17.8% and +2.8% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Amgen reported revenues of $8.39 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +20.1%. EPS of $4.97 for the same period compares with $5 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.31 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.98%. The EPS surprise was +0.81%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Amgen is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Amgen. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Amgen (AMGN) ended the recent trading session at $335.26, demonstrating a +0.85% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.13%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.55%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.52%.
Shares of the world's largest biotech drugmaker witnessed a gain of 3.43% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Medical sector with its gain of 3.34% and underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.67%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Amgen in its upcoming earnings disclosure. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $5.13, marking a 3.43% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $8.51 billion, showing a 23.24% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $19.49 per share and a revenue of $33.21 billion, representing changes of +4.5% and +17.82%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Amgen. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 0.06% fall in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Amgen is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
In the context of valuation, Amgen is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 17.06. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 23.4, so one might conclude that Amgen is trading at a discount comparatively.
It is also worth noting that AMGN currently has a PEG ratio of 2.95. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. As of the close of trade yesterday, the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry held an average PEG ratio of 2.18.
The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is part of the Medical sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 83, putting it in the top 33% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
** Viridian Therapeutics VRDN.O shares up 1.1% at $20.02 after co's equity haul exceeds expectations
** Co late Weds announced pricing ~10.7 mln shares at $18.75 and preferred stock convertible into ~1.3 mln shares for $225 mln gross proceeds
** Deal size increased from planned $150 mln raise
** VRDN shares on Tues popped ~32% after co's drug, veligrotug, significantly reduced thyroid eye disease (TED) symptoms in late-stage study, putting it in position to become the first rival to Amgen's AMGN.O blockbuster therapy Tepezza
** Shares on Weds rose another 5.6% to close at $19.80
** Co plans to use net offering proceeds to further clinical development programs, and for other general purposes
** With ~63.9 mln shares outstanding, it has ~$1.3 bln market cap
** Through Weds, stock down ~9% YTD
** Jefferies, Goldman, Stifel and RBC are jt bookrunners for stock offering
(Lance Tupper is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
(( lance.tupper@thomsonreuters.com lance.tupper@tr.com 1-646-279-6380) )
UnitedHealth Group Inc. reportedly announced on Tuesday that it will remove AbbVie Inc.’s blockbuster drug Humira from some of its preferred reimbursement lists starting January 1, 2025. The company will recommend lower-cost biosimilar versions instead.
This move is part of a larger trend in the U.S. pharmaceutical market, as health plans seek to cut costs by promoting alternatives to high-priced drugs.
Reuters highlights that Amgen Inc’s Amjevita, managed by its pharmacy benefits unit, Optum Rx, is among the biosimilars covered under UnitedHealth’s lists for commercial health plans.
With this decision, Optum becomes the last of the three largest U.S. pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) to exclude Humira.
Cigna Corporation announced last month that it would remove Humira from some of its lists in 2025, following a similar decision by CVS Health Inc’s Caremark unit in April.
CVS’s action led to a swift shift, with more patients transitioning to Sandoz Group AG’s biosimilar version of Humira in just three weeks than in the previous 15 months combined.
Cigna plans to cover biosimilars like Boehringer Ingelheim’s Cyltezo, Simlandi from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd , and Alvotech’s products, including an unbranded version of Sandoz’s Hyrimoz, as replacements for Humira.
UnitedHealth noted that patients would still have access to Humira until the FDA designates the preferred biosimilars as interchangeable with the original drug, per the report. The FDA is expected to make this designation in 2025.
Despite the growing competition, AbbVie has managed to retain a dominant share of the U.S. Humira market throughout 2023. This has been achieved through favorable negotiations with PBMs, even as biosimilar alternatives from companies like Pfizer Inc entered the market.
As per a Reuters report, Humira has still managed to retain over 80% of its patients even after facing lower-priced rivals in the U.S. over the past year.
Following their launch last year, pharmacy benefit managers largely influenced patient access, with minimal incentive for doctors to switch to these alternatives.
In May, Cantor Fitzgerald said AbbVie had positioned itself to absorb Humira biosimilar erosion and achieve modest operational revenue growth.
Price Action: UNH stock is down 2% at $587.07 at last check Wednesday.
Photo via Shutterstock
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Shares of Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. VRDN surged 32.1% on Sept. 10 after the company announced positive top-line data from the phase III THRIVE study, which evaluated its lead pipeline drug, veligrotug (formerly known as VRDN-001) for treating patients with active thyroid eye disease (TED).
The THRIVE study met all the primary and all secondary endpoints by demonstrating highly statistically significant improvements in all measured signs and symptoms of TED at week 15 of treatment with veligrotug, an anti-IGF-1R antibody.
Data from the study showed that five intravenous infusions with veligrotug led to substantial improvements in proptosis, clinical activity score and diplopia in patients with TED.
Shares of Viridian have lost 13.9% so far this year compared with the industry’s decline of 1.6%.
Data From VRDN’s THRIVE Study
Data from the THRIVE study showed that patients who received veligrotug had a 70% proptosis responder rate (PRR) compared with 5% for patients receiving a placebo. PRR was the study’s primary endpoint. Also, the mean reduction in proptosis from baseline was 2.9 mm in the veligrotug arm versus 0.5 mm reduction in the placebo arm.
Patients receiving veligrotug had 54% complete resolution of diplopia compared with 12% of patients who received a placebo. Also, 63% of patients treated with veligrotug achieved a diplopia response versus 20% of patients receiving a placebo.
Meanwhile, 64% of patients who were treated with veligrotug achieved maximal or near-maximal therapeutic effect on clinical activity score (CAS) of 0 or 1 versus 18% of patients who received placebo.
67% of patients who received veligrotug achieved an overall response versus 5% of patients who were treated with a placebo. Treatment with veligrotug was generally safe and well tolerated.
VRDN’s Upcoming Plans for Veligrotug & Other Eye Candidate
Viridian is also evaluating veligrotug, an IV-administered antibody, in the phase III THRIVE-2 study for treating chronic TED. Top-line data from this study is expected by 2024-end.
The company plans to file a biologics license application (“BLA”) for veligrotug for the treatment of TED in the second half of 2025.
Apart from veligrotug, Viridian is developing another candidate, VRDN-003, a subcutaneously (SC)-administered antibody, in two late-stage studies for treating active and chronic TED.
Last month, the company initiated the phase III REVEAL-1 and REVEAL-2 studies evaluating VRDN-003 in active and chronic TED, respectively. Top-line data from the studies are expected in the first half of 2026.
The BLA for VRDN-003 for the treatment of TED is expected to be filed by the end of 2026.
Per management, both veligrotug and VRDN-003 inhibit IGF-1R, which has been proven effective in treating TED.
Competition in the TED Market
If successfully developed and approved, Viridian’s veligrotug and VRDN-003 are likely to face strong competition from Amgen’s AMGN Tepezza, which is the first and only approved drug for TED.
Please note that Tepezza is administered intravenously (IV). Compared to IV drugs, SC drugs can be administered more comfortably and take much less time to be administered.
Amgen is also evaluating an SC formulation of Tepezza in a late-stage study in the TED indication.
Tepezza is part of Amgen’s rare disease franchise, which was added to its portfolio following the acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics in October 2023.
Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider
Viridian currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the biotech sector are Krystal Biotech, Inc. KRYS and Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. FULC, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the past 60 days, estimates for Krystal Biotech’s 2024 earnings per share have increased from $1.98 to $2.38. Earnings per share estimates for 2025 have improved from $4.33 to $7.31. Year to date, shares of KRYS have risen 49.2%.
KRYS’ earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 45.95%.
In the past 60 days, estimates for Fulcrum Therapeutics’ 2024 loss per share have narrowed from $1.24 to 48 cents. Loss per share estimates for 2025 have narrowed from $1.71 to $1.51. Year to date, shares of FULC have jumped 24.9%.
FULC’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 393.18%.
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