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Seagate Technology Holdings plc’s STX stock closed the last trading session at $102.13, 10% below its 52-week high of $113.57, reached on July 24, 2024.
Over the past six months, the stock has appreciated 19.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and the sub-industry’s growth of 9.3% and 8.9%, respectively. It has also outperformed its peers. Over the same time frame, NetApp NTAP and Western Digital WDC have posted gains of 15.3% and 9.6%, respectively, while Pure Storage PSTG shares have lost 3.3%.
Solid financial performance is buoying the stock’s trajectory. The company is experiencing increasing demand for its mass capacity solutions. STX’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 80.9%.
Reflecting the positive sentiment around STX, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current and next quarters by 38.8% and 33.3% to $1.43 and $1.80 per share, respectively.
Momentum in Mass Capacity Demand Makes us Bullish on STX
Momentum in mass capacity solutions attributed to stronger nearline cloud demand remains a tailwind for Seagate. Strengthening the global cloud demand environment is fueling demand for nearline capacity demand. In the last reported quarter, nearline cloud revenues more than doubled year over year, owing to higher traditional cloud computing workloads and new AI deployments. STX expects this momentum to continue in fiscal 2025.
Overall mass capacity revenues surged 46% year over year to $1.437 billion in the last reported quarter. Sequentially, mass capacity revenues were up 22%.
Mass capacity exabyte shipments represent more than 90% of total exabyte shipments. The company shipped 103.9 exabytes for the mass-capacity storage market (including nearline, video and image applications and network-attached storage). This recorded a year-over-year increase of 38% in exabyte shipments and 17% sequentially.
The improving metrics signify that things are probably looking brighter for STX after a period of lackluster performance. Driven by incremental improvements in mass capacity demand, management anticipates first-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues to be $2.10 billion (+/- $150 million).
STX’s Mozaic Platform: Another Catalyst
Seagate’s launch of the Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform, featuring Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, is also expected to aid in capturing a greater share of the mass capacity storage solutions market.
Seagate expects HAMR to aid in exploiting megatrends like AI and machine learning, which will drive long-term demand for cost-effective mass-capacity storage solutions. The company has completed multiple qualifications for its 24TB CMR / 28TB SMR drives. It expects to begin volume shipments in the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
It shipped a small volume of Mozaic 3+ for revenues to non-cloud customers in the fiscal fourth quarter. It anticipates completing the qualification with the lead CSP customer and starting multiple qualifications with the cloud customers of the United States and China in the current quarter. It anticipates a larger volume ramp from mid-calendar 2025.
STX’s Improving Margin Performance & Solid Outlook
Higher exabyte demand trends, ongoing price adjustments and continued cost containment efforts are driving the margin performance.
In the last reported quarter, non-GAAP gross margin increased to 30.9% from 19.5% in the prior-year quarter. Non-GAAP income from operations totaled $327 million, up from $55 million a year ago. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 17.3% from 3.4% in the year-earlier quarter.
Going ahead, STX expects gross margin is expected to benefit from a higher mix of mass capacity revenues and ongoing pricing actions. At the midpoint of the revenue guidance, management expects the non-GAAP operating margin to grow in the high-teens percentage range of revenues. The non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be $270 million.
STX’s Strong Technical Indicators & Attractive Valuation
Technical indicators are also supportive of STX’s strong performance. The stock is trading above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating upward momentum and price stability. This technical strength reflects positive market perception and confidence in its growth prospects.
Seagate presents a compelling investment opportunity with its attractive forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.2X, significantly lower than the industry average of 6.3X observed over the past three years. Its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio positions Seagate as a value-driven choice with significant upside potential.
To Buy or Not to Buy STX?
Increasing demand for mass capacity solutions, strategic initiatives, attractive valuation and positive estimate revisions bode well for STX. Given the recent pullback from its 52-week high, investors have an opportunity to invest in this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Apart from a favorable rank, STX has a Growth Score of B. Per Zacks’ proprietary methodology, stocks with a combination of a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of A or B offer solid investment opportunities.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 implies a 42.8% year-over-year increase in sales and a 474% rise in EPS, signaling strong growth potential ahead.
Zacks Investment Research
Pure Storage (PSTG) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this data storage company have returned -22.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.9% change. The Zacks Computer- Storage Devices industry, to which Pure Storage belongs, has lost 9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Pure Storage is expected to post earnings of $0.43 per share, indicating a change of -14% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -15.3% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.65 points to a change of +16.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -8.8%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.91 indicates a change of +15.4% from what Pure Storage is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -1.6%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Pure Storage.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Pure Storage, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $814.18 million indicates a year-over-year change of +6.7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $3.13 billion and $3.52 billion estimates indicate +10.5% and +12.7% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Pure Storage reported revenues of $763.77 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.9%. EPS of $0.44 for the same period compares with $0.34 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $756.59 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.95%. The EPS surprise was +15.79%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Pure Storage is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Pure Storage. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
The Nasdaq 100 closed higher by around 1% during Thursday's session. Investors, meanwhile, focused on some notable insider trades.
When insiders sell shares, it could be a preplanned sale, or could indicate their concern in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as being overpriced. Insider sales should not be taken as the only indicator for making an investment or trading decision. At best, it can lend conviction to a selling decision.
Below is a look at a few recent notable insider sales. For more, check out Benzinga’s insider transactions platform.
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NetApp NTAP recently announced that Anaplan, a premier provider of business planning and decision-making platforms, is deploying NTAP’s unified data storage solution to strengthen the storage systems across its four global data centers. The initiative aims to consolidate Anaplan’s data storage across public and private clouds, streamlining its data operations and advancing innovation in artificial intelligence (AI) solutions.
Anaplan is widely recognized for its cloud-based AI-powered Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform, aiding organizations to make faster, more informed business decisions. The platform's AI capabilities aid businesses in areas like revenue growth, sales improvement and more accurate forecasting. However, its existing setup made it challenging to handle both on-premises and cloud data, increasing the effort and time required to generate AI-driven data pipelines. As the demand for faster, AI-enhanced business insights grew, Anaplan selected NetApp as its primary storage vendor.
Core Strengths of NetApp’s Cutting-Edge Solutions
NetApp’s platform delivers the performance, cost-effectiveness, scalability and availability required for Anaplan’s AI innovation. Anaplan is leveraging NetApp AFF C-Series storage systems for its primary storage requirements. The system offers the capacity and efficiency required to support Anaplan’s SaaS applications.
By tiering secondary workloads to NetApp’s FAS storage arrays, Anaplan can optimize storage costs while maintaining the necessary performance for critical AI applications. Also, NetApp’s ONTAP software allows Anaplan to manage data across the hybrid multicloud environment seamlessly, facilitating data pipeline for AI. NetApp’s MetroCluster configurations ensure that Anaplan’s data is protected and always available. Through snapshot copies for backups and disaster recovery, Anaplan can safeguard its operations.
Therefore, by leveraging NetApp’s intelligent data infrastructure, Anaplan’s IT team can focus on critical initiatives, such as experimenting with AI applications, rather than managing complex data operations.
Demand for All-flash Arrays to Aid NTAP’s Top-line Expansion
NetApp is witnessing higher demand from customers for its portfolio of modern all-flash arrays, especially the C-series capacity flash and ASA block-optimized flash. The new all-flash A-series is also picking up momentum. AFF A-Series systems were launched in May 2024, engineered to tackle demanding IT workloads like GenAI, VMware and enterprise databases. The new AFF A-Series systems extend the company’s reach in unified data storage for the next generation of workloads.
The company expects the new AFF A-series, along with its C-series and ASA products, to capture further share in the all-flash market. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, the company’s All-Flash Array Business’s annualized net revenue run rate was $3.4 billion, up 21% year over year. Total billings rose 12% to $1.45 billion.
Also, Keystone, storage-as-a-service offering is gaining significant traction, with revenues increasing more than 60% year over year in the fiscal first quarter.
Strengthening demand for NetApp’s solutions in flash, block, cloud storage and AI bodes well. In the fiscal first quarter, the company won more than 50 AI and data lake modernization deals. It now expects full-year revenues in the range of $6.48–$6.68 billion, up 5% year over year at the mid-point. Earlier it projected sales in the band of $6.45–$6.65 billion.
Nonetheless, a challenging macroeconomic backdrop that is adversely impacting IT spending remains a headwind.
NTAP’S Zacks Rank & Stock Price Performance
Currently, NTAP carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Shares of the company have gained 47.7% in the past year compared with the sub-industry’s growth of 42.5%.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some other top-ranked stocks from the broader technology space are Arista Networks, Inc. ANET, Harmonic Inc. HLIT and Ubiquiti Inc. UI. UI and HLIT presently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), whereas ANET carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Arista Networks supplies products to a prestigious set of customers, including Fortune 500 global companies in markets like cloud titans, enterprises, financials and specialty cloud service providers. It delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 15.02%. In the last reported quarter, Arista pulled off an earnings surprise of 8.25%.
Harmonic enables media companies and service providers to deliver ultra-high-quality broadcast and OTT video services to consumers globally. HLIT delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 32.5%.
Ubiquiti company offers a comprehensive portfolio of networking products and solutions for service providers and enterprises. The company’s effective management of its strong global network of more than 100 distributors and master resellers improved its visibility for future demand and inventory management techniques.
Zacks Investment Research
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – September 10, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks and featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. TSM, Micron Technology Inc. MU, NetApp Inc. NTAP, NVIDIA Corp. NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD.
Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:
Golden Opportunity to Buy AI-Focused Stocks on the Recent Dip
September syndrome is already visible in U.S. stock markets. Historically, September is the worst-performing month for Wall Street. This year, too, the situation remains challenging. In the first four trading days of this month, the three major indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — tumbled 2.9%, 4.2% and 5.8%, respectively.
The extremely overvalued artificial intelligence (AI) stocks suffered the maximum brunt of a recent stock market meltdown. Despite the recent mayhem, the AI frenzy remains intact. So far, no negative news appears for the generative AI ecosystem. Therefore, this meltdown provides a lucrative opportunity to enter AI-centric stocks on the dip for near-term gains.
Three such stocks are: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Micron Technology Inc. and NetApp Inc. All three stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Is Recession Nearby or a Knee-Jerk Expression?
Theoretically a recession means contraction of GDP (negative GDP growth rate) for two consecutive quarters. The U.S. GDP grew at 1.4% in first-quarter 2024. The second reading of second-quarter GDP was 3%. On Sept 4, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projected a 2.1% GDP growth rate for the third quarter.
Some soft key economic data over a period of time never indicate a nearby recession. In fact, the Fed was eagerly waiting for these weak economic data, especially labor market data, along with a gradually declining inflation rate, in order to initiate a rate-cut regime.
Finally, the recent AI turmoil is nothing but profit-taking, especially on the part of institutional investors. Stock markets consist of bull and bear operators. As bulls fly high, bears wait quietly for a suitable time and some reasons to be good enough for profit-booking so that they can reenter the market at a reasonably low level.
So far, this year, buy-on-the-dip remains the best investment strategy. Every dip in stocks, especially in AI-giants, has resulted in more aggressive returns in a short span. This time too, the same outcome will appear.
Three AI-Focused Stocks With Significant Price Upside
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
Taiwan Semiconductor has become a new poster boy on the global artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy. TSM is the largest manufacturer of AI-based chipsets for the world’s best AI chipset developers. The company is experiencing solid demand for its advanced technologies, such as 3-nanometer (nm) and 5nm. TSM’s growing efforts to ramp up the production of 3nm and development of 2nm is a plus.
TSM is the largest manufacturer of NVIDIA Corp.’s chipsets. NVIDIA is globally the largest developers of generative AI-based chips. TSM also caters to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and others.
Solid Earnings Estimate Revisions for TSM Stock
TSM has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 23.6% and 24.5%, respectively, for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter, current-year and next-year earnings has improved over the last 30 days.
Huge Price Upside Potential for TSM Shares
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor has jumped 50.8% year to date. In the past month shares have fallen 4.7%. Despite this, the short-term average price target of brokerage firms for the stock represents an increase of 25.1% from the last closing price of $156.82. The brokerage target price is currently in the range of $170-$250.
Micron Technology Inc.
Micron Technology has been benefiting from the enormous growth of AI applications that boosted demand for its high bandwidth memory chips. MU is a major producer of memory chips used in NVIDIA’s GPUs. MU is benefiting from improved market conditions, robust sales executions and strong growth across multiple business units.
Micron Technology anticipates the pricing of DRAM and NAND chips to increase, thereby improving its revenues. The pricing benefits will primarily be driven by rising AI servers, causing a scarcity in the availability of cutting-edge DRAM and NAND supplies. Also, 5G adoption in IoT devices and wireless infrastructure will spur demand for memory and storage.
Strong Earnings Estimate Revisions for MU Stock
MU has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 57% and more than 100%, respectively, for the current year (ending August 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter, current-year and next-year earnings has improved over the last 60 days.
Tremendous Price Upside Potential for MU Shares
The stock price of Micron Technology has advanced a meager 1.3% year to date. In the past month shares have fallen 6.2%. Despite this, the short-term average price target of brokerage firms for the stock represents a jump of 80% from the last closing price of $86.38. The brokerage target price is currently in the range of $100-$225.
NetApp Inc.
NetApp’s performance is being driven by demand across the all-flash and cloud storage portfolio. In the fourth quarter of 2024, all-Flash Array Business’ annualized revenue run rate was $3.6 billion, up 17% year over year.
NetApp expects its expertise in tackling critical customer priorities, such as AI, business analytics, cloud transitions, data security and application modernization, to drive expansion. The enterprise storage products of NTAP will allow users to boost their workload including traditional enterprise applications and generative AI.
Robust Earnings Estimate Revisions for NTAP Stock
NTAP has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 4.9% and 8.8%, respectively, for the current year (ending April 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter, next-quarter, current-year and next-year earnings has improved over the last 30 days.
Attractive Price Upside Potential for NTAP Shares
The stock price of NetApp has climbed 29.6% year to date. In the past month shares have fallen 4.2%. Despite this, the short-term average price target of brokerage firms for the stock represents an increase of 13.3% from the last closing price of $114.18. The brokerage target price is currently in the range of $108-$155.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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