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Reporter Name | Morris John Christopher |
Relationship | SVP & CTO |
Type | Sell |
Amount | $257,731 |
SEC Filing | Form 4 |
John Christopher Morris, SVP & CTO of Seagate Technology Holdings plc, sold 2,531 Ordinary Shares on September 16, 2024, at a price of $101.83 per share, totaling $257,731. Following the transaction, Morris directly owns 6,405 Ordinary Shares. The sale was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on February 6, 2024.
SEC Filing: Seagate Technology Holdings plc [ STX ] - Form 4 - Sep. 17, 2024
Seagate Technology Holdings plc’s STX stock closed the last trading session at $102.13, 10% below its 52-week high of $113.57, reached on July 24, 2024.
Over the past six months, the stock has appreciated 19.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and the sub-industry’s growth of 9.3% and 8.9%, respectively. It has also outperformed its peers. Over the same time frame, NetApp NTAP and Western Digital WDC have posted gains of 15.3% and 9.6%, respectively, while Pure Storage PSTG shares have lost 3.3%.
Solid financial performance is buoying the stock’s trajectory. The company is experiencing increasing demand for its mass capacity solutions. STX’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 80.9%.
Reflecting the positive sentiment around STX, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current and next quarters by 38.8% and 33.3% to $1.43 and $1.80 per share, respectively.
Momentum in Mass Capacity Demand Makes us Bullish on STX
Momentum in mass capacity solutions attributed to stronger nearline cloud demand remains a tailwind for Seagate. Strengthening the global cloud demand environment is fueling demand for nearline capacity demand. In the last reported quarter, nearline cloud revenues more than doubled year over year, owing to higher traditional cloud computing workloads and new AI deployments. STX expects this momentum to continue in fiscal 2025.
Overall mass capacity revenues surged 46% year over year to $1.437 billion in the last reported quarter. Sequentially, mass capacity revenues were up 22%.
Mass capacity exabyte shipments represent more than 90% of total exabyte shipments. The company shipped 103.9 exabytes for the mass-capacity storage market (including nearline, video and image applications and network-attached storage). This recorded a year-over-year increase of 38% in exabyte shipments and 17% sequentially.
The improving metrics signify that things are probably looking brighter for STX after a period of lackluster performance. Driven by incremental improvements in mass capacity demand, management anticipates first-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues to be $2.10 billion (+/- $150 million).
STX’s Mozaic Platform: Another Catalyst
Seagate’s launch of the Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform, featuring Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, is also expected to aid in capturing a greater share of the mass capacity storage solutions market.
Seagate expects HAMR to aid in exploiting megatrends like AI and machine learning, which will drive long-term demand for cost-effective mass-capacity storage solutions. The company has completed multiple qualifications for its 24TB CMR / 28TB SMR drives. It expects to begin volume shipments in the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
It shipped a small volume of Mozaic 3+ for revenues to non-cloud customers in the fiscal fourth quarter. It anticipates completing the qualification with the lead CSP customer and starting multiple qualifications with the cloud customers of the United States and China in the current quarter. It anticipates a larger volume ramp from mid-calendar 2025.
STX’s Improving Margin Performance & Solid Outlook
Higher exabyte demand trends, ongoing price adjustments and continued cost containment efforts are driving the margin performance.
In the last reported quarter, non-GAAP gross margin increased to 30.9% from 19.5% in the prior-year quarter. Non-GAAP income from operations totaled $327 million, up from $55 million a year ago. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 17.3% from 3.4% in the year-earlier quarter.
Going ahead, STX expects gross margin is expected to benefit from a higher mix of mass capacity revenues and ongoing pricing actions. At the midpoint of the revenue guidance, management expects the non-GAAP operating margin to grow in the high-teens percentage range of revenues. The non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be $270 million.
STX’s Strong Technical Indicators & Attractive Valuation
Technical indicators are also supportive of STX’s strong performance. The stock is trading above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating upward momentum and price stability. This technical strength reflects positive market perception and confidence in its growth prospects.
Seagate presents a compelling investment opportunity with its attractive forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.2X, significantly lower than the industry average of 6.3X observed over the past three years. Its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio positions Seagate as a value-driven choice with significant upside potential.
To Buy or Not to Buy STX?
Increasing demand for mass capacity solutions, strategic initiatives, attractive valuation and positive estimate revisions bode well for STX. Given the recent pullback from its 52-week high, investors have an opportunity to invest in this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Apart from a favorable rank, STX has a Growth Score of B. Per Zacks’ proprietary methodology, stocks with a combination of a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of A or B offer solid investment opportunities.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 implies a 42.8% year-over-year increase in sales and a 474% rise in EPS, signaling strong growth potential ahead.
Zacks Investment Research
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Value investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth Score
While good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
What if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Seagate (STX)
Headquartered at Dublin, Ireland, Seagate is leading provider of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions. The company’s primary product offering is hard disk drives which is commonly referred to as disk drives, hard drives or HDDs. HDDs are used as the primary medium for storing digitally encoded data on rapidly rotating disks with magnetic surfaces.
STX is a #1 (Strong Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Business Services stock. STX has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 1% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2025, five analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $1.59 to $7.41 per share. STX boasts an average earnings surprise of 80.9%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, STX should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Value investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
What if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only as a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Headquartered at Dublin, Ireland, Seagate is leading provider of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions. The company’s primary product offering is hard disk drives which is commonly referred to as disk drives, hard drives or HDDs. HDDs are used as the primary medium for storing digitally encoded data on rapidly rotating disks with magnetic surfaces.
STX is a #1 (Strong Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Business Services stock. STX has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 1.6% over the past four weeks.
Five analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $1.59 to $7.41 per share. STX boasts an average earnings surprise of 80.9%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, STX should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Seagate . Shares have lost about 4.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Seagate due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Seagate's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates
Seagate reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 non-GAAP earnings of $1.05 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 40%. The company reported a non-GAAP loss of 18 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Management anticipated fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 non-GAAP earnings to be 70 cents (+/- 20 cents).
Non-GAAP revenues of $1.887 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. The figure increased 18% on a year-over-year basis and 14% sequentially. Management projected revenues to be $1.85 billion (+/- $150 million) for the fiscal fourth quarter.
Higher mass capacity revenues were driven by stronger global cloud demand. Mass capacity revenues surged 46% year over year to $1.437 billion. Its exabyte shipments now represent more than 90% of total exabyte shipments. Nearline cloud revenues more than doubled year over year, owing to higher traditional cloud computing workloads and new AI deployments.
Exabyte Shipments in Detail
In the reported quarter, Seagate shipped 114.2 exabytes of HDD storage, up 25% year over year and 15% sequentially.
Average mass capacity increased 45% year over year and 6% sequentially to 9.3TB.
The company shipped 103.9 exabytes for the mass-capacity storage market (including nearline, video and image applications, and network-attached storage). This recorded a year-over-year increase of 38% in exabyte shipments and 17% sequentially. Average mass capacity per drive slightly increased sequentially to 12.6 TB from 12.5 TB.
In the nearline market, it shipped 84.3 exabytes of HDD, up 54% year over year and 18% sequentially.
Seagate shipped 10.3 exabytes for the legacy market (which includes mission-critical notebooks, desktops, gaming consoles, digital video recorders or DVR and external consumer devices), down 36% year over year and 3% sequentially. Average capacity increased 2% year over year to 2.5 TB.
Revenues by Product Group
Total revenues of HDD (91.5% of revenues) rose 25% year over year to $1.727 billion in the reported quarter. On a sequential basis, revenues were up 17%.
Systems, SSD & Other segment’s revenues (8.5%), including enterprise data solutions, cloud systems and solid-state drives, were $160 million, down 27% on a year-over-year basis and 10% sequentially.
Our estimates for revenues from HDD and non-HDD segments were $1.674 billion and $178 million, respectively.
Margin Details
Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 30.9% from 19.5% in the prior year quarter.
Non-GAAP operating expenses were down 1% on a year-over-year basis to $256 million.
Non-GAAP income from operations totaled $327 million, up from $55 million a year ago. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 17.3% from 3.4% in the year-earlier quarter.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
As of Jun 28, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $1.358 billion compared with $795 million as of Mar 29.
As of Jun 28, 2024, long-term debt (including the current portion) was $5.674 billion compared with $5.671 billion as of Mar 29.
Cash flow from operations was $434 million compared with $188 million in the previous quarter. Free cash flow amounted to $380 million compared with $128 million in the prior quarter. This includes $226 million from the sale of System-on-Chip Operations, net of transaction costs.
The company paid $147 million as dividends in the fiscal fourth quarter. It exited the quarter with 210 million shares outstanding.
For the fiscal year, Seagate reported $918 million in cash flow from operations and $664 million in free cash flow. It paid cash dividends of $585 million in the fiscal year.
Outlook
Management anticipates first-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues to be $2.10 billion (+/- $150 million). Seagate expects incremental improvements in mass capacity demand, owing to strengthening demand from global cloud customers and modest improvement in the nearline enterprise market. The increase in mass capacity revenues is likely to offset lower revenues from legacy markets.
Gross margin is expected to benefit from a higher mix of mass capacity revenues and ongoing pricing actions.
For VIA, management anticipates sales to fluctuate in the second half of the calendar 2024. Though smart cities are the biggest end-market opportunity, the near-term budget visibility remains blurry amid existing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Non-GAAP earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 are expected to be $1.40 per share (+/- 20 cents).
The non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be $270 million. At the midpoint of the revenue guidance, management expects the non-GAAP operating margin to grow in the high-teens percentage range of revenues.
Management expects fiscal 2025 capex to be at or below the low end of its long-term target range of 4-6% of revenues.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 26.7% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Seagate has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Seagate has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Zacks Investment Research
Seagate Technology Holdings plc , headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global leader in data storage solutions. With a diverse portfolio that includes HDD, SSD, and cloud storage products, the company has established itself as a key player in the industry. Seagate is currently valued at $21.7 billion by market cap.
Shares of this global storage solutions leader have considerably outperformed the broader market over the past year. STX has gained 59.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 27.8%. In 2024, STX stock is up 22.3%, surpassing SPX’s 17.8% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, STX’s outperformance is evident when compared to Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF . The exchange-traded fund has gained about 37% over the past year. Moreover, STX’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 20.3% returns over the same time frame.
On Jul. 23, Seagate Technology released its Q4 earnings, and the stock climbed 4% in the subsequent trading session. It reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.89 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.87 billion, indicating that the decline in disk drive sales is coming to an end. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.05, substantially surpassing the estimated EPS of $0.56.
For the current fiscal year, ending in June 2025, analysts expect STX’s EPS to grow 873.9% to $6.72 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat or met the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 20 analysts covering STX stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 10 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” seven “Holds,” and two “Strong Sells.”
This configuration has been consistent over the past months.
On July 22, Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson reiterated his “Outperform” rating on Seagate Technology and raised the price target from $100 to $130.
The mean price target of $118.44 represents a 13.4% premium to STX’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $142 suggests an upside potential of 36%.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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