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Consumer stocks were edging higher pre-bell Wednesday as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced by 0.1% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund was up 0.2% recently.
General Mills shares declined by almost 3% after the company reported lower fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales.
Mondee Holdings shares were up about 2% after the company said it got a $15 million letter of credit from Morgan Stanley , which was a condition to extensions to its term loan and preferred equity.
Arko plans to sell its convenience store operations in a deal potentially valued at about $2 billion as a shift away from expansion due to slowing sales, Reuters reported, citing sources. Arko shares were up over 1% premarket.
ARKO Corp. (ARKO) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +5.9%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.6% change. During this period, the Zacks Consumer Products - Staples industry, which ARKO falls in, has gained 2.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
ARKO is expected to post earnings of $0.16 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The consensus earnings estimate of $0.31 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +29.2%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $0.33 indicates a change of +6.5% from what ARKO is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for ARKO.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For ARKO, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $2.43 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -7.4%. For the current and next fiscal years, $9.18 billion and $9.19 billion estimates indicate -2.5% and +0.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
ARKO reported revenues of $2.39 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -3.3%. EPS of $0.11 for the same period compares with $0.11 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -0.79%. The EPS surprise was -38.89%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
ARKO is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about ARKO. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 0.1% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust was 0.2% higher in Wednesday's premarket activity, as investors weighed the size of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut later in the day.
US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.2% before the start of regular trading.
US mortgage applications rose 14.2% for the week ended Sept. 13, driven by declining mortgage rates, with refinancing up 24% and new home applications rising 5%, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages dropped to 6.15%, the lowest since September 2022.
The housing starts and permits data for August will be released at 8:30 am ET. This month's Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations report releases at 10 am ET, followed by the weekly domestic petroleum inventories report at 10:30 am ET.
The US Federal Reserve is slated to announce its rate decision at 2 pm ET, with Chair Jerome Powell to hold a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.
In premarket action, bitcoin was down by 0.1% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was 0.4% lower.
Power Play:
Industrial
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund was 0.3% higher while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund and the iShares US Industrials ETF were inactive.
Intuitive Machines shares were up more than 49% before the opening bell after the company said late Tuesday that the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration has awarded the firm a Near Space Network contract with a maximum potential value of $4.82 billion.
Winners and Losers:
Health Care
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund was flat. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund , the iShares US Healthcare ETF , and the iShares Biotechnology ETF were inactive.
MannKind shares were up 2.1% premarket after the company said it received clearance from Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency to begin the phase 3 trial of its Clofazimine Inhalation Suspension treatment for lung disease.
Consumer
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund was flat, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund was inactive. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 0.1%. The VanEck Retail ETF was inactive, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF was up 0.1%.
General Mills was down 1.4% pre-bell after the company reported lower fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales.
Energy
The iShares US Energy ETF was up nearly 1.5%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund was down by 0.3%.
Crown LNG Holdings shares were 1% higher before Wednesday's opening bell. The company said it received a Nasdaq notification for failing to meet the minimum bid price requirement for continued listing, with its shares closing below $1 for 30 consecutive business days.
Technology
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund was flat, and the iShares US Technology ETF was 0.9% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF was up 0.5%. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose by 0.1%.
Clarivate was up 1% in recent Wednesday premarket activity after the company said it had launched a generative AI-powered academic research tool dubbed Primo Research Assistant.
Financial
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 0.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares was up 0.4%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares was 0.1% lower.
Commodities
Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated 0.9% to $70.57 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas was up nearly 1% at $2.35 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund fell by 1%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund advanced by 1.1%.
Gold futures for December were up 0.5% at $2,606.20 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures slipped 0.1% at $31.02 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares gained 0.4%, and iShares Silver Trust was 0.1% lower.
For Immediate Releases
Chicago, IL – September 18, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Micron Technology, Inc. MU, Morgan Stanley MS and NVIDIA Corporation NVDA.
Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:
Death Cross for MU Stock: Time to Buy Micron Based on Fundamentals?
One of the leading providers of semiconductor memory solutions, Micron Technology, Inc., recently flashed a bearish chart pattern after an eminent investment bank cut off its price target. So, what’s next for Micron investors? Shall they sell the stock or have faith in Micron’s fundamentals and hang on to it? Let’s see –
Micron Stock Is Falling; Death Cross Pattern Appears
Micron’s shares and an array of other semiconductor stocks took a beating on Monday. The Micron stock slumped 4.4% and a death cross chart pattern appeared. The short-term 50-day moving average (DMA) went below the long-term 200-DMA, indicating an imminent downtrend.
Micron’s stock closed at $87.18 yesterday, while the 50-DMA was $104 below the 200-DMA at $104.75. For the Micron stock, such a death cross pattern happened for the first time since April 28, 2022.
Bearish bets have increased on the Micron stock, with analysts at Morgan Stanley slashing the price target as they remain pessimistic about the computer memory maker’s earnings growth in the coming quarters. Morgan Stanley said the Micron stock was $140 a share. But now they expect the shares to be as little as $100.
Will Micron Stock Turn Around?
Micron is known to be a cyclical stock, so naturally, the stock would face volatility along with the economy. However, the long term bodes well for the Micron stock mostly because of the boom in artificial intelligence (AI). After all, AI needs data centers that require a lot of memory, and Micron is a memory specialist.
In AI graphic cards, Micron’s high-bandwidth memory chips (HBM) are used by tech behemoths like NVIDIA Corporation. The AI industry is expected to grow beyond $184 billion in the current year and surpass $826 billion by 2030, according to Statista.
Management is optimistic about Micron’s HBM chips, and they are expecting the HBM market to notch $86 billion in revenues by 2030 from a meager $1.8 billion last year, a CAGR of 68%.
Management also confirmed that the company has already utilized its full production capacity to fulfill the ever-growing demand for HBM chips. Interestingly, Morgan Stanley analysts still believe that strong demand by AI companies for HBM chips will boost Micron’s bottom line.
What Fundamentals Say About MU Stock?
Micron is a cash-rich company. This helps the company get involved in tactical acquisitions and other growth initiatives that enhance shareholders’ wealth. The company’s cash and investments came in at a solid $9.2 billion in the fiscal third quarter of 2024.
Micron’s revenues are also expected to improve since the demand for DRAM memory is widely projected to be soon at an all-time high. As a result, the $1.20 Zacks Consensus Estimate for MU’s earnings per share is up 160.3% yearly.
Buy, Hold or Sell MU Stock?
Based on a strong cash balance, and an increase in demand for HBM chips, it’s just a matter of time before the Micron stock would bounce back. Moreover, the Micron stock is less pricey than its peers, encouraging one to buy the dip without burning a hole in the pocket. Per the price/earnings ratio, MU trades at 9.3X forward earnings, while the Semiconductor Memory industry’s forward earnings multiple is 10.4X.
However, if a death cross is playing on your mind, and has apprehensions about Micron stock’s present performance, it’s prudent to wait for an opportune moment to buy the stock. Those who have already bought it, don’t panic, investment in Micron would be beneficial in the long run. Micron has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.
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Media Contact
Zacks Investment Research
800-767-3771 ext. 9339
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
Zacks Investment Research
The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some improvement in the overall market sentiment, but the index remained in the “Neutral” zone on Tuesday.
U.S. stocks settled mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing the session near the flatline after surging to a record high. Major indices recorded gains last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 4% and the Nasdaq adding 5.9%. The Dow also climbed 2.6% last week.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to cut interest rates.
Compass Minerals International, Inc. shares jumped 21% on Tuesday after the company announced preliminary third-quarter revenue above estimates. Intel Corporation shares gained 2.7% after the company announced a strategic collaboration with AWS to help advance US-based chip manufacturing.
On the economic data front, U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% month-over-month in August compared to a revised 1.1% gain in July, topping market estimates of a 0.2% decline. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 41 in September versus 39 in the prior month. Total business inventories rose by 0.4% month-over-month in July compared to a 0.3% gain in June, topping market expectations of a 0.3% increase.
Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a positive note, with consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials stocks recording the biggest gains on Tuesday. However, healthcare and consumer staples stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.
The Dow Jones closed lower by around 16 points to 41,606.18 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.03% to 5,634.58, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20% at 17,628.06 during Tuesday's session.
Investors are awaiting earnings results from General Mills, Inc. , Steelcase Inc. , and Sangoma Technologies Corporation today.
What is CNN Business Fear & Greed Index?
At a current reading of 54.9, the index remained in the “Neutral” zone on Tuesday, versus a prior reading of 54.1.
The Fear & Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.
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