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December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ24) today is down -65 (-0.83%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ24) is down -88 (-1.63%).
Cocoa prices today gave up an early advance and turned lower as a stronger dollar sparked long liquidation in cocoa futures. Losses in London coca accelerated today after the British pound rallied to a 2-1/2 year high, undercutting cocoa priced in terms of sterling.
Today, cocoa prices initially rose to a 3-week high on tighter cocoa inventories. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 15 months and fell to a 15-year low Wednesday of 2,249,161 bags.
Lower cocoa production in the Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, is bullish for cocoa prices. Government data Monday showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.72 MMT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to September 15, down by -28% from the same time last year.
Cocoa also has carryover support from last Wednesday when the Ghana government raised the price that its cocoa regulator pays farmers for cocoa by 45% to $3,063 per ton for the 2024/25 season that began this month. The price increase was below expectations of 65%, which may prompt Ghana's cocoa farmers to hoard beans in the hopes of even higher prices.
Late last month, NY cocoa rallied to a 2-1/2 month high due to concern that excessively dry conditions in West Africa could curb the region's cocoa production. Forecaster Maxar Technologies recently said that top cocoa-producing countries Ivory Coast and Ghana had seen a "significant decrease in shower activity" over the past month, leading to below-normal soil moisture and limited crop growth.
Cocoa also has support after Ghana's Cocoa Board (Cocobod) cut its 2024/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate on August 20 to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana's 2023/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. Ghana is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, and its 2024/25 cocoa harvest begins in October.
An increase in cocoa production by Cameroon, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, is bearish for cocoa prices. On August 21, Cameroon's National Cocoa and Coffee Board reported that 2023/24 (Aug/July) Cameroon cocoa production rose +1.2% y/y to 266,725. Also, on August 28, Nigeria's July cocoa exports jumped +31% y/y to 17,456 MT. Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest cocoa producer.
Cocoa prices have been supported by better-than-expected cocoa demand. The National Confectioners Association reported on July 18 that North America Q2 cocoa grindings rose +2.2% y/y to 104,781 MT, stronger than estimates for a slight decline. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported on July 18 that Asian Q2 cocoa grindings fell -1.4% y/y to 210,958 MT, a smaller decline than expectations of -2.0% y/y. The European Cocoa Association reported on July 11 that Q2 European cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose +4.1% y/y to 357,502 MT, versus expectations of a -2% y/y decline.
In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on August 30 raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -462,000 MT from May's -439,000 MT. ICCO also cut its 2023/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.330 MMT from May's 4.461 MMT. ICCO projected a 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio of a 46-year low of 27.4%.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
December arabica coffee (KCZ24) today is down -1.85 (-0.70%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX24) is down -72 (-1.35%).
Coffee prices are moving lower today as forecasts for rain in Brazil sparked long liquidation coffee futures. Today's two-week Global Forecast System model showed rain is expected for Brazil's coffee-growing regions next week during the all-important flowering period for Brazil's coffee trees.
The downside in coffee prices is limited today after Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024 Brazil coffee production forecast to 54.8 million bags from 58.8 million bags forecast in May.
Strength in the Brazilian real is bullish for arabica coffee prices as the real rallied to a 1-month high against the dollar today, discouraging export selling from Brazil's coffee producers.
On Monday, Dec arabica and Nov robusta posted contract highs, while nearest-futures (U24) robusta posted a new all-time high. Coffee prices have rallied sharply over the past week as adverse global weather events threaten coffee production. Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below normal since April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received no rain over the past week. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Also, robusta coffee has support after heavy rain from typhoon Yagi may have damaged Vietnam's robusta coffee fields.
Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production. Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season. Last Wednesday, the General Department of Vietnam Customs reported that Vietnam's August coffee exports fell -9.9% y/y to 76,214 MT and that Vietnam's Jan-Aug coffee exports fell -12.1% y/y to 1.06 MMT.
Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's Aug green coffee exports rose +1.4% y/y to 3.41 million bags. The rise in Brazil's green coffee exports was consistent with other recent news showing higher exports. The Brazilian Trade Ministry reported on August 7 that Brazil's July coffee exports rose +44% y/y to 202,000 MT. Also, Cecafe reported on July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags. On a global basis, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on September 6 that global coffee exports rose +12.2% y/y in July to 11.29 million bags and that global exports during Oct-July rose +10.5% y/y to 115.01 million bags.
A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is negative for prices. Last Thursday, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 1-1/2 year high of 858,474 bags, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023. Also, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on July 25 rose to a 1-year high of 6,521 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024.
In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production climbed +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also said global 2023/24 coffee consumption rose +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
The USDA's bi-annual report on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24. The USDA's FAS projects that Brazil's 2024/25 arabica production would climb +7.3% y/y to 48.2 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage. The USDA's FAS also forecasts that 2024/54 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, will climb +1.6% y/y to 12.4 mln bags.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
WINNIPEG, Manitoba--The ICE Futures canola market slipped back into the red on Thursday despite mostly positive sentiment in comparable oils.
One trader said canola could be pivoting into a move sideways and could stay rangebound between C$560 to C$590. He also noted a lack of direction in soybeans.
Chicago soyoil was higher, as well as Malaysian palm oil. However, European rapeseed was mixed. Crude oil was also making small gains.
The Canadian dollar was up less than one-tenth of a United States cent compared to Wednesday's close. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by half of a percentage point on Wednesday, its first reduction in four years, it was having little effect on the commodities.
About 24,800 contracts have traded at 10:12 CDT.
Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
Nov 577.40 dn 5.70
Jan 589.80 dn 5.90
Mar 602.00 dn 5.40
May 610.80 dn 5.40
Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV24) today is up +0.83 (+1.17%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV24) is up +4.10 (+2.04%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today rose to 2-week highs and are moderately higher. Crude is climbing today after the Fed's aggressive 50 bp interest rate cut on Wednesday sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets. Crude oil prices are also higher on the hope that the Fed's aggressive rate cut will spur economic growth that boosts energy demand. In addition, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows optimism in the economic outlook that is bullish for energy demand. Strength in the dollar today is limiting gains in crude.
Concerns that conflict in the Middle East may widen and disrupt the region's crude supplies in bullish for crude. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant announced a "new phase" in the war with regional Islamist groups as Israel moved troops toward the Lebanon border, raising fears about a wider conflict that could involve Iran, a major oil producer.
Strength in the crude crack spread is bullish for crude prices as the crack spread climbed to a 2-week high today, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine it into gasoline and distillates.
Today's US economic reports were mixed for energy demand and prices. On the positive side, weekly initial unemployment claims fell -12,000 to a 4-month low of 219,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 230,000. Also, the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +8.7 to 1.7, stronger than expectations of 0.0. On the negative side, Aug existing home sales fell -2.5% m/m to a 10-month low of 3.86 million, weaker than expectations of 3.90 million.
Reduced Libyan oil production and exports support oil prices as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse in Libya over control of the country's central bank, leading to reduced crude exports. Libya's crude exports fell to 314,000 bpd last week from 468,00 bpd at the beginning of this month. Earlier this month, Libya's eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country's central bank and oil revenues.
Signs of weakness in European fuel demand are bearish for crude prices after Italian refiner Eni SpA and Spain's Repsol SA, which together account for about 13% of Europe's oil refining capacity, said they were reducing processing at their plants because of weak margins, a sign of lackluster fuel demand in Europe.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -1.5% w/w to 65.53 million bbl in the week ended September 13.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +110,000 bpd to 3.25 million bpd in the week to September 15. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Tuesday that Russia's Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 13 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 13 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.2 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 13 rose by +5 rigs to 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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