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Sensex and Nifty skyrocketed to record highs at the open on September 19 as the street cheered the US Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut announced overnight. Rate-sensitive sectors—banking and IT—spearheaded the rally.
At 9.20 AM, the Sensex was up 581 points or 0.7 percent at 83,529 and the Nifty 50 was up 168 points at 25,546. About 1,916 shares advanced, 629 shares declined, and 113 shares remained unchanged.
The positive sentiment extended to the broader markets, with BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gaining over half a percent. Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility index, eased by nearly 9 percent to 12.
The optimism flowed into the broader markets as well with both BSE Midcap and Smallcap rising over half a percent. The volatility index, India VIX, declined by almost 9 percent to 12.
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Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities said that the Fed's move is a positive development, especially for emerging markets like India, which has maintained a tight monetary policy. "This shift could benefit Indian markets in the medium to short term," he said.
Bathini now anticipates an early rate cut in India, potentially as early as December. "While the exact timing is uncertain, the key takeaway is that the liquidity tightening cycle appears to be over, and India is entering a period of lower interest rates," he said.
"This start to the easing cycle provides some space to (emerging markets) EMs to kick-start theirs too, but with low global volatility thus far, the RBI is likely to remain focused on domestic dynamics," Emkay Global said in its FOMC review report. "With the global market reaction having been muted thus far, the RBI still has flexibility to remain focused on domestic inflation and risk management."
Also Read | FIIs favour India vs other EMs so far in September, buying spree may build on, say experts
Meanwhile, Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking said that most market participants anticipated a 25 basis point cut. "This larger cut could send mixed signals, especially with the US job data providing caution, while other indicators like consumption data were more positive," he said. He suggested that the supersized rate cut might indicate further economic challenges, such as a mild recession or stagflation.
All 13 sectoral indices were trading in the green, with Nifty IT leading the charge. The IT index climbed 1.5 percent driven by gains in Infosys, TCS, and LTIMindtree. Nifty Bank also advanced nearly 1 percent, supported by HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank.
Among individual stocks, Grasim, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, LTIMindtree, and NTPC led the Nifty 50 gainers list, rising 1.5-3.7 percent. Meanwhile, Dr. Reddy's, Bajaj Finserv, BPCL, HCLTech, and ONGC emerged as the worst performers, slipping 0.1-1 percent.
Asia-Pacific markets rose in volatile trading today reacting to the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut, while US stocks closed with minor losses after an initial intraday surge overnight.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Asian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts edged higher Wednesday morning with the S&P Asia 50 ADR Index up 0.2% to 1,926.59.
From North Asia, the gainers were led by brand management platform 36Kr and education company 17 Education & Technology Group , which rose 9.8% and 2.9% respectively. They were followed by fintech firms Jiayin Group and Pintec Technology , which were up 2.5% and 2% respectively.
The decliners from North Asia were led by automotive ecommerce platform TuanChe and electric vehicle maker NIO , which fell 6.7% and 3.8% respectively. They were followed by mobile healthcare platform 111 and property technology company Fangdd Network Group , which dropped 3.1% and 2.9% respectively.
From South Asia, the gainers were led by tech conglomerate Sea and financial services company ICICI Bank , which increased 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. They were followed by telecommunications operator Telekomunikasi Indonesia and financial services company HDFC Bank , which were up 1.1% and 0.2% respectively.
The decliners from South Asia were led by IT firms Infosys and Wipro , which lost 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. They were followed by telecommunications operator PLDT and IT firm Sify Technologies , which were down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively.
Sensex and Nifty ended lower on September 18, reversing earlier gains that saw both indices hit record highs ahead of the Fed meeting outcome. Selling pressure in IT and energy stocks dampened the mood, while banking stocks provided some support, gaining on the day of expiry of the BANKNIFTY futures contracts.
At close, the Sensex was down 210 points or 0.3 percent at 82,869 and the Nifty was down 74 points at 25,345. About 1,452 shares advanced, 2,342 shares declined, and 103 shares remained unchanged.
Broader market indices underperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices declining by 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, volatility surged, with India VIX climbing over 6 percent to 13.4 points.
"Market participants seem a bit watchful ahead of the FOMC announcement," said Sameet Chavan, Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One.
"Investors assess the potential for a short-term underperformance of equity given the elevated valuation and correction of metal prices," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. "Commodities, including oil prices, are steadily declining, suggesting a potential tempering of economic growth. Investor caution is evident as gold prices rise, likely due to anticipated dollar weakness following the rate cut," Nair added.
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"The tension is playing out as the Fed debates whether to cut interest rates by a quarter-point or a half-point," said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital - Prabhudas Lilladher. "Importantly, this rate cut is just the beginning. By itself, one rate cut isn't a panacea for borrowers grappling with high financing costs and has a minimal impact on the overall household budget. What will be more significant is the cumulative effect of a series of interest rate cuts over time," Kasat said.
Among sectoral indices, only two of the 13 were in the green—Nifty Bank and Nifty Private Bank. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank led the gains in the banking index.
On the flip side, the Nifty IT index tumbled over 3 percent, with all 10 constituents falling between 2 and 6 percent. Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, TCS, and HCLTech were the biggest losers on the Nifty 50 index, each declining 2.6-3.5 percent.
Also Read | ICICI Bank mcap hits Rs 9 lakh crore milestone for first time
The sharp decline in the IT sector followed Accenture's 5 percent drop in share price on September 17 on news that the company will delay promotions by six months due to a challenging consultancy environment. Bloomberg reported that Accenture has informed employees that most promotions will now take place in June, instead of the usual December. Analysts also pointed to profit booking in IT stocks, which have outperformed in recent months.
Among the top gainers in the Nifty 50 were ICICI Bank, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, and Shriram Finance, rising 1.6-4.4 percent. The Bajaj Twins—Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv—rallied as Bajaj Housing Finance more than doubled investors' wealth in a stellar stock market debut. Additionally, Morgan Stanley's 'overweight' rating on Bajaj Finance, forecasting a 19 percent upside, further fueled the rally.
Investors await the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, expected to be the first in four years, as the Fed concludes its two-day meeting today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled confidence in easing rates, with inflation near the 2 percent target. The September 17-18 Fed meeting marks the sixth monetary policy meeting of 2024.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
The benchmark indices hit a new closing high despite volatility on September 17, ending the session with moderate gains despite negative breadth. About 1,515 shares declined, and 946 shares advanced on the NSE. The Nifty 50 is expected to consolidate before starting a new leg of upmove. Below are some trading ideas for the near term:
Ashish Kyal, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
Hero MotoCorp | CMP: Rs 5,961
On the daily chart, Hero MotoCorp has broken out of a rounding bottom formation accompanied by increased volume, signaling a new wave of buying interest in the stock. Additionally, prices made a fresh high and closed above the previous day's high, suggesting growing bullish momentum. Currently, prices are trading near the upper Bollinger Band, and a decisive breakout could accelerate positive momentum. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator has recently crossed the zero line, moving upwards, indicating increasing strength in the trend. Overall, the sentiment for Hero MotoCorp is bullish. Use a buy-on-dips strategy.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 6,450
Stop-Loss: Rs 5,720
PB Fintech | CMP: Rs 1,848.5
In the previous session, PB Fintech witnessed a 2.85 percent rally, despite the muted market performance. The stock has made a lifetime high of Rs 1,871.4. It has been in a strong uptrend and is trading at the upper end of the Keltner channel on the daily chart. Prices are about to give a breakout from this channel, which could lead to good momentum. Along with this, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has shown a bullish crossover, but follow-up action is needed for confirmation. The trend for PB Fintech remains bullish. A breach above Rs 1,875 can lift the price towards Rs 2,000, as long as Rs 1,770 holds on the downside.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 2,000
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,770
Century Plyboards | CMP: Rs 885
Century Plyboards showed a sharp rally of 10.4 percent in the previous session in a single trading day. The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern and closed above Rs 850, confirming a breakout of the said pattern. On the daily chart, the ADX (Average Directional Index) is suggesting strong momentum with a reading of 58.17, well above 25. For now, a buy-on-dips approach is advised to ride the trend. The trend for Century Plyboards is bullish, and dips towards Rs 865–875 can be used as buying opportunities for a move towards Rs 960–970, as long as Rs 835 holds on the downside.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 960, Rs 970
Stop-Loss: Rs 835
Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities
Birlasoft | CMP: Rs 648.5
Birlasoft is showing strong support at the anchor VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) level of Rs 625, with additional support below at Rs 619. The stock has an upside target of Rs 690. Traders are advised to buy at Rs 624, with a stop-loss at Rs 610. The RSI (Relative Strength Index 14) is currently at 51, indicating neutral momentum, but the overall trend remains positive. A breakout could drive the stock higher towards the target level.
Strategy: buy
Target: Rs 690
Stop-Loss: Rs 610
Kotak Mahindra Bank | CMP: Rs 1,846.65
Kotak Mahindra Bank presents a buying opportunity at Rs 1,843, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,825. The stock is poised for a potential rally towards Rs 1,900, supported by favourable price action and increasing buying interest. A sustained move above Rs 1,850 could trigger accelerated gains. The technical setup remains bullish, making it an attractive buy at current levels, with risk management through a tight stop-loss.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 1,900
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,825
HDFC Bank | CMP: Rs 1,668.8
HDFC Bank is trading near key support, offering a solid entry point at Rs 1,668, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,650. The stock is targeting Rs 1,700 and Rs 1,720, driven by positive sentiment and strong technical indicators. A breakout above Rs 1,700 could lead to further upside. Traders should maintain a tight stop-loss to manage downside risk while capitalizing on the potential rally.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 1,700, Rs 1,720
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,650
Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities
UTI Asset Management Company | CMP: Rs 1,291.4
UTI AMC exhibits higher highs and higher lows, confirming a strong and sustained uptrend. The stock is trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average but remains in a consolidation phase. A decisive breakout above Rs 1,302 could trigger a fresh rally to higher levels. The daily RSI remains steady at around 70, reflecting strong traction. Moreover, increasing volume alongside the price rise further strengthens the positive momentum. One can initiate a long position at the current market price (CMP) of Rs 1,291 for a target price of Rs 1,400.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 1,400
Stop-Loss: Rs 1,245
JSW Infrastructure | CMP: Rs 335.9
JSW Infrastructure has broken its declining trendline after establishing a strong base around Rs 315, signaling upward momentum with robust volume participation in Tuesday's session. The stock is currently trading above its 20 and 50 DMAs. The daily RSI remains steady at 60. A move above Rs 340 could trigger strong traction on the higher side. One can initiate a long position at the CMP of Rs 335.9.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 375
Stop-Loss: Rs 312
CG Power and Industrial Solutions | CMP: Rs 731
CG Power, which was in a consolidation phase, is now showing a gradual upward trend with a strong base and the formation of a double bottom (a bullish pattern). Minor resistance remains around Rs 740, a level to watch. Breaking this level could trigger further gains. Strong volume participation and the stock sustaining above its 20 DMA confirm the bullish trend. Based on this technical structure, one can initiate a long position at the CMP of Rs 731.
Strategy: Buy
Target: Rs 790
Stop-Loss: Rs 730
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Asian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were moving slightly lower Tuesday morning, declining 0.2% to 1,929.84 on the S&P Asia 50 ADR Index.
From North Asia, the gainers were led by video-streaming service iQIYI and internet and data center provider VNET Group , which rose 6.9% and 6.2% respectively. They were followed by financial services company CNFinance and computer hardware maker Canaan , which were up 6% and 5.8% respectively.
The decliners from North Asia were led by financial services company Dunxin Financial and automotive e-commerce platform TuanChe , which fell 34% and 4.1% respectively. They were followed by property technology company Fangdd Network Group and financial services company Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , which were down 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.
From South Asia, the gainers were led by IT firm Sify Technologies , which increased 3.5%, followed by business process management company WNS and financial services company HDFC Bank , which rose 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
The decliners from South Asia were led by tech conglomerate Sea and IT firm Infosys , which lost 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. They were followed by telecommunications operator Telekomunikasi Indonesia , which was off 1.1%.
HDFC Bank said on Monday that the company's board will meet on Saturday, 19 October 2024 to consider Q2 FY25 financial results. "We wish to inform you that a meeting of the Board of Directors of HDFC Bank Limited will be held on Saturday, October 19, 2024 to inter-alia consider the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results of the Bank for the quarter and half year ending September 30, 2024," India's largest lender said in a notice to stock exchanges.
Further, it said that the trading window for dealing in HDFC Bank securities will remain closed from Tuesday, September 24, 2024 to Monday, October 21, 2024 (both days inclusive) for the designated employees, directors, etc, according to SEBI regulations.
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