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At its keynote Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed Chair Powell explicitly reconfirmed the change in the Fed’s assessment on the balance between fighting inflation and preserving maximum employment it already signaled at the July policy meeting. ‘The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.’ The Fed’s confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2.0% is growing. The labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. Even as the rise in unemployment mainly comes from a rise in labour supply rather from layoffs, the Fed doesn’t seek or welcome a further cooling of the labour market. With respect to the potential pace of easing Powell stated that while keeping a data-dependent approach. ‘The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.’ With this kind of remarks, Powell left all options open but didn’t formally challenge the market view that the Fed might move to 50 bps steps in a not that distant future. US yields on Friday closed between 8.8 bps (2-y) and 3.5 bps (30-y) lower. Markets now see more than 100 bps of cumulative rate cuts before the end of this year, with the low of the cycle seen near 3.0% (end 2025/early 2026). Despite Friday’s decline, US bond yields didn’t break recent (intraday) lows and are holding above the lows from the early August risk-off move. Still, the picture for the 2-y yield remains fragile. German yields declined between 2.5 bps (5-y) and 0.5 bps (30-y). The direction of travel for the dollar remains clear: south. DXY closed at a 100.72 (from 101.46). EUR/USD tested the 1.12 big figure (close 1.1192). Equity investors embraced the prospect of further, Fed-led easing of (global) financial conditions. US indices gained op to 1.47% (Nasdaq). The S&P 500 (+1.15%) closed less than 1.0% below its all-time peak. The Eurostoxx 50 added 0.5%.
Today’s calendar is modestly interesting with US durable goods orders and German Ifo confidence. US activity data are gaining importance as the Fed is putting less weight on inflation, but the durables’ series is very volatile. Even so, we look out whether the decline in US yields might slow as quite some easing is already discounted. German Ifo confidence is expected to confirm weakness in other recent data evidence. For German/EMU bond markets, inflation to be published on Thursday (Germany) and Friday (EMU), probably are more important. For now, we don’t fight the broader USD downtrend as long markets maintain the view that the Fed can move to 50 bps steps in a not that distant future. Key USD support kicks in at DXY 99.58 and EUR/USD 1.1276 (2023 top).
Bank of England governor Bailey said that policy settings will need to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation remaining sustainably around the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. “The course will therefore be a steady one.” The UK central bank chief is nevertheless becoming more confident that things are heading in the right direction. Second round inflation effects appear to be smaller than the BoE expected. They are revising down their assessment on how persistent these pressures would be, though don’t take it for granted yet. Bailey gave no guidance for the outcome of the next, September, policy meeting. UK money markets attach a 25% chance to back-to-back rate cuts with the more likely scenario being that the BoE only implements a next 25 bps rate cut in November, when the new quarterly Monetary Policy Report will be released. Sterling continues outperforming both EUR and USD with cable (GBP/USD), breaching 1.32 for the first time since Q1 2022.
Brazil central bank governor Campos Neto warned at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole conference that the country’s tight labour market is challenging the central bank’s bid to rein in inflation. Consumer prices have been picking up across Latin America with Brazilian inflation hitting the 4.5% Y/Y ceiling of the tolerance range (3% +- 1.5 ppt) in July. With economic activity picking up, Campos Neto warned that the central bank’s data dependency could result in an higher policy rate if needed. The Brazilian central bank raised its policy rate from 2% in 2021 to a 13.75% peak by mid-2022. They started a gradual easing cycle in mid-2023, but paused it in June at a 10.50% policy rate. arlier this month, influential board member Galipolo who is rumoured to succeed Campos Neto when his term ends in December, indicated that a rate hike is on the table at the next (September) policy meeting.
The ECB cut policy rates by 25 bps in June. Stubborn inflation (core, services) make follow-up moves less evident. Markets nevertheless price in two to three more cuts for 2024 as disappointing US and unconvincing EMU activity data rolled in, dragging the long end of the curve down. The move accelerated during the early August market meltdown.
The Fed in its July meeting paved the way for a first cut in September. It turned attentive to risks to the both sides of its dual mandate as the economy is moving to a better in to balance. Markets tend to err in favour of a 50 bps lift-off. The pivot weakened the technical picture in US yields with another batch of weak eco data pushing the 10-yr sub 4%. Powell at Jackson Hole didn’t challenge markets’ positioning.
EUR/USD moved above the 1.09 resistance area as the dollar lost interest rate support at stealth pace. US recession risks and bets on fast and large (50 bps) rate cuts trumped traditional safe haven flows into USD. EUR/USD 1 1.1276 (2023 top) serves as next technical reference.
The BoE delivered a hawkish cut in August. Policy restrictiveness will be further unwound gradually on a pace determined by a broad range of data. The strategy similar to the ECB’s balances out EUR/GBP in a monetary perspective. Risk-off proved a more important driver of GBP recently, triggering a brief return from 0.84 towards 0.86.
India’s national elections, held from April through June, resulted in a coalition government after almost a decade of one-party rule. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will remain in office but will be forced to negotiate with coalition partners for the first time in his career. Although India’s foreign and economic policies remain consistent, we can expect changes on the domestic front as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition alliance face off in the approaching state elections.
India views the current global geopolitical landscape as favorable for its domestic, economic and foreign policy goals. The United States-China rivalry, the potential for a multi-polar world order and the rise of the global majority (sometimes referred to as the Global South) all increase India’s international leverage. At a time when popular sovereignty seems to be under fire, India’s elections have reinforced its status as the world’s largest democracy. On the economic front, it remains the fastest growing big economy, in spite of the array of challenges posed by market forces, protectionism and populism.
The election result was a surprise. Instead of a clean sweep, Mr. Modi’s party won only 240 out of 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. Although still the largest party in parliament, the BJP will need the support of the two other big parties in its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition – Janata Dal United or JUD(U), led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu – as well as smaller groups. It will face strong opposition from the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by Indian National Congress (INC) leader Rahul Gandhi.
The election results cast a shadow over Mr. Modi’s personal achievement of being elected for a third term – a feat previously managed only by India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. To deliver effective governance, Mr. Modi and his advisors will need to put their commitment to Hindutva ideology on the back burner. This step away from the party’s ideals, combined with the need to manage its coalition partners, will pose a new challenge for the prime minister.
Still, managing demanding coalition partners may prove easier than dealing with a reinvigorated opposition. For the last decade, the BJP’s dominance meant that there was little resistance to the government’s policies in parliament. Now, parliamentary debate will be robust, as was apparent in the monsoon session held in July and August. The recent rollbacks of three contentious pieces of legislation – on the broadcast bill, on the Waqf amendment and on lateral entry all show that the government will find it easier to advance populist welfare policies than to trudge through contentious legislation on social or economic issues.
Control of the upper house of parliament is at stake in the upcoming elections in India’s 28 states and eight union territories. Polls are due before the end of the year in Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as well as in Delhi and Bihar in 2025. The BJP needs to retain power in Maharashtra and Haryana, and make gains in others, to garner sufficient support in the upper house to prevent the opposition from impeding legislation.
Though historically unstable, coalition governments in India have generally been capable of implementing some changes in the economy; the last major reforms, in 1991, were carried out by a coalition government. But the demands of electoral politics may prevent large-scale change in the coming months. The election result suggests that much-needed reform of the markets for land, labor and capital will be difficult to implement. Although India seeks to become more integrated into global supply chains, a strong protectionist tradition makes it skeptical of foreign trade.
The swing to the opposition revealed widespread economic distress despite India’s status as the world’s fastest growing emerging economy. Unemployment stands at 6.1 percent and youth unemployment is at 45.4 percent. In large parts of the country, first- or second-time young voters indicated that they were not impressed by the prospect of India becoming the world’s third largest economy by 2030, as they were unlikely to benefit from the growth. In the months ahead, the government might embrace welfare economics to improve the ruling party’s electoral appeal.
One area where the effect of the election will be minimal is foreign and security policy. India continues to pursue its ideal of a multipolar world, maintaining close ties with all major powers, as well as countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia and especially the Middle East.
During Mr. Modi’s third term, India will continue to favor the U.S. as its partner of choice in order to solidify its position as a regional counterweight to China, acquire advanced technologies and expand the economy. Closer alignment between the U.S. and India has garnered strong, bipartisan support in both countries, but India still seeks to maintain its strategic autonomy and is unlikely to give in to U.S. demands to minimize ties with Russia.
In addition to India seeing Russia as its continental backer on the Asian landmass, providing balance against the rise of China, over 62 percent of India’s military hardware is of Russian origin and Russia has remained a major oil supplier. The hope is to prevent Russia from becoming so dependent on China that it begins to disregard India’s interests.
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