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Tractor Supply Company TSCO seems to be in a good spot, thanks to its strong business strategies. The company is reaping the benefits of its Life Out Here Strategy and the Neighbor’s Club membership program. Its ‘ONETractor’ strategy, which is aimed at connecting stores and online shopping, appears encouraging too. The company has been accelerating its digital capabilities, which has been leading to higher customer engagement and improvement in the conversion rate. The overall customer base has been robust with healthy customer engagement.
Given the changing consumer trends, Tractor Supply is focused on integrating its physical and digital operations to offer consumers a seamless shopping experience. The company’s omnichannel investments include curbside pickup, same-day and next-day delivery, a re-launched website and a new mobile app.
TSCO is significantly enhancing its Neighbor's Club offering. Growth in customer counts and customer retention remain sturdy. Tractor Supply launched Hometown Heroes, which helps recognize military service members, veterans and first responders. This program comes with one banner, which is supporting selfless men and women. We note that nearly 20% of the Hometown Heroes as of the second quarter of 2024 were new to Neighbor's Club and 15% new to Tractor Supply.
In the most recent quarter, Neighbor's Club comp sales surpassed the company’s overall sales. Tractor Supply has reached an all-time high in its sales penetration, recording membership of more than 36 million. About 5 million members were added in the last 12 months. The company concentrates on improving personalization capabilities, mainly its customer data platform, which is expected to be implemented later in the year. Its live goods performance also bodes well.
Regarding its store-growth initiatives, Tractor Supply is persistently focused on the expansion of its store base and the incorporation of technological advancements to boost traffic. These store investments target higher market share and boost productivity across existing and new stores. Its new store productivity seems appealing. The addition of new product categories, greater ease of shopping and modern services enables the company to serve its customers efficiently.
Factors Hindering TSCO’s Growth
Despite its robust initiatives, Tractor Supply is not immune to the difficulties of the current economic landscape. The company grapples with softness in goods. The ongoing shift in spending from goods to services has been a headwind. It has also been witnessing softness in its discretionary businesses like clothing, footwear and decor and in the hardline products of the business, including ag, fencing and pet kennels. As for the retail price, the company’s plans continue to show a headwind from deflation in the third quarter with a moderation in the fourth quarter.
Tractor Supply is reeling under higher depreciation and amortization along with the costs related to the opening of a distribution center. Cost inflation is also concerning. Due to these factors, selling, general and administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, as a percentage of sales, expanded 58 basis points year over year in the second quarter. In dollar terms, the metric rose 4.1%. Management anticipates modest fixed cost deleverage ahead. This is likely to affect the company’s profitability in the near term.
Conclusion
Nevertheless, shares of this leading rural lifestyle retailer have gained 37.4% in a year, outperforming the industry’s 14.2% growth. TSCO’s growth efforts have driven this outperformance.
Analysts seem quite optimistic about the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) is currently pegged at $14.9 billion and $10.23, respectively. These estimates indicate corresponding growth of 2.4% and 1.4% year over year. The consensus estimate for 2025 sales and EPS is presently pegged at$15.8 billion and $11.13, respectively, implying a year-over-year increase of 5.7% and 8.9%.
Investors who already invested in the stock can retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company.
Key Picks
We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks, namely Abercrombie ANF, Boot Barn BOOT and Deckers DECK.
Abercrombie & Fitch, a leading casual apparel retailer, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 13.1% from the year-ago figure. ANF delivered an earnings surprise of 16.8% in the last reported quarter.
Boot Barn, a leading footwear, apparel and accessories retailer, presently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1. BOOT delivered an average earnings surprise of 7.1% in the trailing four quarters.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 11.6% from the year-ago figure.
Deckers, a footwear and accessories dealer, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). DECK delivered an average earnings surprise of 47.2% in the trailing four quarters.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales indicates growth of 11.5% from the year-ago figure.
Zacks Investment Research
Boot Barn Holdings Inc. is a leading specialty retailer of western and work apparel, footwear, and accessories. Customers include outdoor enthusiasts, ranchers, farmers, hunters, anglers, fashionistas, and rugged western country lifestyle enthusiasts. The company started with one store in 1978 and has grown to become the largest western lifestyle and workwear retailer in the nation, with 411 stores across the United States. The company's vision is "to offer a piece of the American spirit."
Boot Barn competes with footwear and workwear retailers in the retail/wholesale sector, which includes companies like Wolverine World Wide Inc. , Tractor Supply Co. , V.F. Corp. and Columbia Sportswear Co. .
Boot Barn’s Competitive Advantages
The company possesses a number of competitive advantages:
Solid Growth Metrics in Fiscal Q1 2025
Boot Barn has an average of 9% in-store sales (SSS) between fiscal 2020 and 2025 estimates. The company reported fiscal Q1 2025 EPS of $1.26, beating consensus estimates by 19 cents. Net income was $38.9 million, up from $34.3 million in the year-ago period. Merchandise margin rose 100 bps, offset by 100 bps, deleveraging in buying, occupancy, and distribution center costs. The merchandise margin rate was due to supply chain efficiencies, while the deleveraging was due to costs driven by the addition of new stores. Revenues rose 10.3% YoY to $423.4 million, beating $415.04 million consensus estimates. SSS grew 1.4% YoY, which was comprised of 0.8% growth in its retail stores and 6.7% YoY growth in e-commerce sales.
Raising the Full Year 2025 Guidance
Boot Barn raises its fiscal full year 2025 forecasts for EPS of $5.05 to $5.35, up from previous guidance of $4.55 to $4.85 versus $4.99 consensus estimates. Full-year 2025 revenue of $1.816 billion to $1.85 billion, up from the previous estimate of $1.766 billion to $1.800 billion versus $1.82 billion consensus analyst estimates. The company plans on opening 60 new stores in fiscal 2025, with SSS to range from down 1% to up 1.2% YoY. Gross profit is expected between $672 million to $688.8 million or 37% to 37.2% of sales.
Boot Barn CEO Jim Conroy commented, “During the first quarter, we grew merchandise margin by 100 basis points. Exclusive brand penetration increased slightly over last year to 38.1%, wrapping an outsized 630 basis points of growth in the prior year period.”
Surprise Comp SSS Update
On Sept. 10, 2024, Boot Barn provided a surprise update stating that quarter-to-date (QTD) comps for fiscal Q2 2025 indicated SSS growth of 4%. This was comprised of 3.4% retail comps and 9.2% e-commerce comps for the first 10 weeks of fiscal Q2 2025. While it is 10 weeks into the second quarter, the 4% YoY SSS growth is a vast improvement over its previous guidance of negative 1% to position 1% in Q2 2025.
This acceleration of the improving SSS trend, which had negative 0.3% in July, 6% in August, and 8.2% in the first part of September, sent shares surging to new all-time highs.
BOOT Triggers a Rare Bullish Megaphone Breakout
A bullish megaphone is comprised of an ascending upper trendline resistance comprised of higher highs and a descending trendline support comprised of lower lows. This forms the shape of a megaphone. The breakout occurs when the stock surges above the upper trendline.
BOOT triggered the bullish megaphone breakout on the SSS update, indicating 4% YoY growth, which was a significant improvement from previously forecast SSS growth of negative 1% to positive 1%. This caused a gap from $140.47 to 148.32, the gap fill range. Shares peaked at $162.16 before retesting the upper gap fill. The daily relative strength index (RSI) turned back up towards the 68-band. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $148.32, $140.47, $128.69 and $123.49.
Boot Barn’s average consensus price target is $141.10, and its highest analyst price target sits at $165.00.
Actionable Options Strategies
Bullish investors can buy on pullbacks using cash-secured puts at the fib pullback support levels to buy the dip and write covered calls to execute a wheel strategy for income.
A Poor Man’s Covered Call (PWCC) strategy is less capital intensive on this speculation, which involves buying a deep in-the-money (ITM) back-month call and selling out-of-the-money (OTM) front-month calls.
For the full text of this story please click the following link: http://www.moodys.com/page/viewresearchdoc.aspx...
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