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** Shares of U.S. homebuilders rise in premarket trade after Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by half a percentage point
** D R Horton DHI.N up 4% at $202, Lennar LEN.N up 3% at $194, Pultegroup PHM.N up 3% at $146 and Toll Brothers TOL.N up 2% at $153
** National Association of Home Builders' Chief Economist Robert Dietz says Fed rate cut will lower interest rates on home construction business loans
** YTD, DHI up 27%, LEN up 26%, PHM up 36% and TOL up 46%, up to last close
(Reporting by Anshuman Tripathy in Bengaluru)
U.S. stocks look set for a relief rally after the market failed to sustain the upward momentum set in motion by the 50 basis-point cut announced by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The index futures point to a sharply higher opening on Thursday. Given the central bank’s focus on labor market statistics, traders may closely monitor the weekly jobless claims data. The results of a regional manufacturing survey and the Conference Board’s leading economic index may also create some ripples in the market.
With the Fed decision on the back-burner, earnings could get back to the spotlight, with FedEx Corp. due to report after the close. Tech and small-cap stocks remain poised to rally out of the gates even as most strategists warn of a tech rally cool-off. Volatility is on the wane amid the risk-on mood, with the CBOE Volatility Index, aka VIX, down about 9%.
Futures | Performance (+/-) |
Nasdaq 100 | +1.99% |
S&P 500 | +1.53% |
Dow | +1.15% |
R2K | +2.88% |
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust jumped 1.55% to $570.08 and the Invesco QQQ ETF gained 2.00% to $480.96, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session:
Wall Street closed Wednesday’s session modestly lower despite the Fed obliging with the magnitude of the cut the market was hoping for. The major indices resigned themselves to the pattern typical of a Fed decision day and moved sideways until the announcement was made. The central bank delivered and traders indulged in strong buying that took the S&P 500 Index to a new intraday high.
The dot plot suggested policymakers will likely cut rates a 25 basis points at each of the next two decisions and by at least another percentage point in 2025. While the growth outlook was left unchanged, the unemployment rate forecasts were revised. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments at the press conference spooked the market, sending stocks lower in late-afternoon trading.
Index | Performance (+/) | Value |
Nasdaq Composite | -0.31% | 17,573.30 |
S&P 500 Index | -0.29% | 5,618.26 |
Dow Industrials | -0.25% | 41,503.10 |
Russell 2000 | +0.04% | 2,206.34 |
Insights From Analysts:
It could be time for defensives and small-caps to shine, now that the rate-cutting cycle has begun and the door is open for more.
LPL Financial Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder said in a note ahead of the rate cut that value stocks outperform their growth counterparts three and six months after the initial cut. The 1995 monetary policy is the most analogous to the current one, he said, adding that during the 12 months after the cut at that time, growth stocks were slightly better. But value stocks have an edge over the first six months, he said.
Defensive sectors typically outperform in the six months after the initial rate cuts, and this was particularly evident during the 1995 period that saw a soft landing and technology buildout, the strategist said. Specifically, the defense and the telecom services sector were top performers, while consumer staples and utilities also outperformed, he said. Financials did well in the 1995 cycle and performed in-line in the 2019 period, which is more comparable to the current situation than the 2001 cycle, he added.
Surprisingly, the technology sector underperformed the S&P 500 after the 1995 rate cut, even though the internet buildout was in its early phases, Buchbinder said, referring to Netscape’s initial public offering which came after the first rate cut. Netscape is credited with creating the first internet browser.
“The takeaway here is that the technology sector, which as we know, is in a major buildout phase now with artificial intelligence, may not get a performance bump from a more accommodating Fed,” the strategist said.
Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick pointed out a positive data point that bodes well for the market. In a post on X, he said the Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs 20 times in the past. In all the instances, the S&P 500 was higher a year later.
Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrickSep 17, 2024The Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs 20 times.
The S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times.
S&P 500 at all-time highs now and the Fed is cutting tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/MSHhII1Cu4
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Crude futures rose in the early U.S. session, extending the gain from the previous session, as the dollar continues to be weak against most currencies barring the yen. Gold futures also firmed up. The 10-year T-note yield rose 1.9 basis points to 3.706%.
Bitcoin rallied strongly following the Fed decision, with the apex crypto now trading just shy of the $62.5K level.
The major Asian averages gained notably on Thursday, as they reacted to the Fed’s largesse, with Japan benefiting from the yen’s modest weakening against the greenback. European stocks were on a firmer footing in early Thursday, with traders in the region awaiting the Bank of England’s rate decision. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% although signaling reductions in the future.
Read Next:
Image via Pixabay
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Looking for broad exposure to the Mid Cap Blend segment of the US equity market? You should consider the John Hancock Multifactor Mid Cap ETF (JHMM), a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 09/28/2015.
The fund is sponsored by John Hancock. It has amassed assets over $3.92 billion, making it one of the larger ETFs attempting to match the Mid Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.
Why Mid Cap Blend
Compared to large and small cap companies, mid cap businesses tend to have higher growth prospects and are less volatile, respectively, with market capitalization between $2 billion and $10 billion. Thus, companies that fall under this category provide a stable and growth-heavy investment.
Typically holding a combination of both growth and value stocks, blend ETFs also demonstrate qualities seen in value and growth investments.
Costs
When considering an ETF's total return, expense ratios are an important factor, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts in the long term if all other factors remain equal.
Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.42%, putting it on par with most peer products in the space.
It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.03%.
Sector Exposure and Top Holdings
Even though ETFs offer diversified exposure that minimizes single stock risk, investors should also look at the actual holdings inside the fund. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.
This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Industrials sector--about 19.40% of the portfolio. Financials and Information Technology round out the top three.
Looking at individual holdings, United Rentals Inc (URI) accounts for about 0.62% of total assets, followed by Lennar Corp A (LEN) and Hartford Financial Svcs Grp (HIG).
The top 10 holdings account for about 4.77% of total assets under management.
Performance and Risk
JHMM seeks to match the performance of the John Hancock Dimensional Mid Cap Index before fees and expenses. The John Hancock Dimensional Mid Cap Index comprises of a subset of securities in the U.S. Universe issued by companies whose market capitalizations are between the 200th and 951st largest U.S. company.
The ETF has added about 12.23% so far this year and was up about 22.14% in the last one year (as of 09/19/2024). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $44.18 and $58.94.
The ETF has a beta of 1.08 and standard deviation of 19% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 664 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.
Alternatives
John Hancock Multifactor Mid Cap ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, JHMM is a good option for those seeking exposure to the Style Box - Mid Cap Blend area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.
The Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO) and the iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH) track a similar index. While Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF has $68.41 billion in assets, iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF has $89.43 billion. VO has an expense ratio of 0.04% and IJH charges 0.05%.
Bottom-Line
Retail and institutional investors increasingly turn to passively managed ETFs because they offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; these kind of funds are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.
To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.
Zacks Investment Research
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +1.48%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +2.03% this morning on expectations the Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point rate cut will steer the U.S. economy toward a “soft landing,” while investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data and an earnings report from delivery services giant FedEx.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point yesterday, marking its first rate reduction in over four years. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% after maintaining it at its highest level in two decades for over a year. In their statement, policymakers indicated they will contemplate “additional adjustments” to rates depending on “incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned not to presume that the half-point move establishes a pace that policymakers will maintain. “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%, ” Powell said in a press conference.
Projections released after the Fed’s two-day meeting revealed that a slim majority, 10 out of 19 policymakers, supported cutting rates by at least an additional half-point during the two remaining 2024 meetings. Also, Fed officials penciled in an additional percentage point of cuts in 2025, according to their median forecast.
“The markets got what they wanted - a big first cut by the Fed. Now we’ll see if they remain satisfied,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “The Fed has a well-deserved reputation for not rushing, so there’s the potential for some disappointment if it’s seen to be moving too slowly, especially if economic data continues to soften. But today they delivered.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. ResMed slumped over -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to Underperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $180. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Intel sliding more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow and Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia falling nearly -2%. On the bullish side, U.S. Steel advanced over +1% after a U.S. security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to acquire the company for $14.1 billion. In addition, Intuitive Machines surged more than +38% after announcing that it was awarded a NASA contract worth up to $4.82 billion for providing communication and navigation services for near-space missions.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475M in August, stronger than expectations of 1.410M. Also, U.S. August housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356M, stronger than expectations of 1.310M.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.1% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November.
On the earnings front, notable companies like FedEx , Lennar , and Darden Restaurants are slated to release their quarterly results today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will come in at -0.8, compared to last month’s value of -7.0.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists predict this figure will hold steady at 230K, consistent with last week’s number.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 3.92M in August, compared to 3.95M in July.
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index will be reported today as well. Economists expect the August figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.6% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.707%, up +0.38%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +1.31% this morning as investors digested the Fed’s first rate cut in four years and looked ahead to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Mining stocks led the gains on Thursday. Data from the European Central Bank released Thursday revealed that the Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed in July due to a smaller trade surplus and a decline in primary income. Meanwhile, investor focus is now shifting to the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision due later in the session, with the central bank widely anticipated to keep rates unchanged. In corporate news, Next Plc gained about +2% after the British clothing retailer announced it is on track to achieve an annual profit of nearly 1 billion pounds.
Eurozone’s Current Account data was released today.
Eurozone July Current Account came in at 39.6B euros, weaker than expectations of 40.3B euros.
Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.69%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.13%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, reversing earlier losses amid optimism that an aggressive U.S. rate cut could give Chinese authorities more leeway to ease policy further to bolster the economy. Software and property stocks led the gains on Thursday. Still, a bleak economic outlook and the absence of robust policy support measures in the country kept sentiment subdued. According to analysts and policy advisers, Chinese policymakers are expected to intensify efforts to help the economy achieve its increasingly challenging growth target for 2024, focusing more sharply on stimulating demand to counter persistent deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, just hours after the Fed’s meeting, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reduced the city’s base rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%. The HKMA follows the Fed’s monetary policy to maintain the Hong Kong dollar’s fixed exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. In other news, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao stated in Brussels on Wednesday that China will persist in negotiating “until the last minute” on the European Union’s electric vehicle probe. In corporate news, Hongrun Construction Group rose over +3% after securing a 242 million yuan wharf construction project from Hengli Shipbuilding. Investors are now shifting their focus to China’s loan prime rate decision on Friday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, climbing above the 37,000 level for the first time since September 5th. Export-oriented stocks led the gains on Thursday as the yen weakened against the dollar, driven by expectations that the Fed might opt for smaller rate cuts ahead. A softer yen enhances the prospects for Japan’s export-driven industries and encourages investors to pursue higher-yielding assets. Technology stocks also gained ground. Meanwhile, market participants are now turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday, where it is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged but hint at further rate hikes. Japanese consumer inflation data, set for release on Friday, will also be closely watched by investors. In corporate news, Ichiyoshi Securities gained over +1% after announcing a provisional semi-annual dividend of 17 yen per share for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2025. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -5.20% to 25.73.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Steelcase plunged over -9% in pre-market trading after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and provided below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance.
Progyny plummeted more than -22% in pre-market trading after disclosing the loss of a “significant client.”
Five Below fell about -1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral.
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - September 19th
FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet Research (FDS), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Endava (DAVA), Cracker Barrel Old (CBRL), Research Solutions (RSSS).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Homebuilder stocks are hitting new highs as anticipation builds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision. Both Lennar Corp and PulteGroup, Inc. surged to 52-week highs on Sept. 18, with Lennar reaching $190.12 and PulteGroup hitting $141.43.
The rally comes as investors bet that the Fed’s expected rate cut could further boost the already resurgent housing market.
Lower Rates To Benefit Home Builder Stocks
A note from Bank of America Securities highlights that the rally in homebuilder stocks has been underway since early July, coinciding with a drop in 30-year mortgage rates from 7% to 6.2%.
“Lower rates would benefit home demand,” the note added, suggesting that a Federal Reserve cut of 25 to 50 basis points would add fuel to the fire for the housing sector.
Read Also: Homebuilder Stocks Outperform Ahead Of Potential Rate Cuts — But What’s Next?
Lennar’s Cash Flow Yield In Focus As It Reports Q3 Earnings
Lennar, up 26.78% year to date and nearly 60% over the past year, has been a standout performer, benefiting from strong demand and improved earnings multiples. The company is expected to release its third-quarter earnings tomorrow (Thursday), which could provide further insights into its performance.
Bryn Talkington of Requisite Capital Management also pointed to Lennar's impressive free cash flow yield of 11%, making it an attractive play for investors seeking value amid the rate cut frenzy.
PulteGroup’s Margins Continue To Impress Investors
PulteGroup, up a whopping 82.46% over the past year, followed a similar path. The company, which develops single-family homes under well-known brands such as Pulte Homes and Centex, continues to enjoy top-of-the-line margins despite industry headwinds like inflation and a soft labor market.
Analysts believe the Fed's expected rate cut will temporarily relieve the housing affordability crisis, though long-term challenges remain.
Lennar and PulteGroup are positioned to keep riding the wave as the Fed’s decision looms. Investors eyeing exposure to the housing sector may want to watch closely.
Read Next:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
New construction on single-family homes in the U.S. jumped in August as mortgage rates trend downward and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday for the first time in four years.
Single-family housing starts last month came in at an annualized rate of 992,000 units, up 15.8% from a revised figure of 857,000 for July, according to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday.
Starts for all privately-owned housing in August totaled an annualized rate of 1.356 million units, up 9.6% from the July revised estimate of 1.237 million and up 3.9% from the August 2023 rate of 1.305 million.
Single-family housing completions reached an annualized rate of 1.029 million in August, registering a 5.6% decline from July’s revised rate of 1.09 million.
Completions for all privately-owned homes in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.788 million, up 9.2% from the July revised estimate of 1.637 million and 30.2% above the July 2023 rate of 1.373 million.
Read Also: Housing Starts Rebound, Lift Homebuilder Stocks: Sign Of Economic Resilience
Building permits also rose last month, Commerce Department data showed.
Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 967,000, up 2.8% from the revised July figure of 941,000.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,475,000. That’s up 4.9% from the July revised rate of 1.406 million but below the August 2023 rate of 1.578 million.
The average rate for 30-year mortgages fell 14 basis points in the week ended Sept. 13 to 6.15%, marking the lowest rate since September 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key interest rate ranging from 5% to 5.25% on Wednesday by either 25 or 50 basis points, signifying its first rate decline in four years.
Price Action: Homebuilders slid into Wednesday’s mid-day trading.
Exchange-traded funds that hold homebuilder stocks showed gains and losses.
Read Now:
Image: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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