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American Airlines AAL received encouraging tidings on the labor front when the Association of Professional Flight Attendants or APFA announced that flight attendants of the airline have ratified a new five-year contract, increasing the value of their current agreement by $4.2 billion.
With 95% of eligible flight attendants casting their votes, 87% of American Airlines flight attendants voted in favor of the contract, which takes effect from Oct. 1, 2024. This contract represents a significant milestone for American Airlines flight attendants, delivering immediate wage increases of up to 20.5% and substantial retroactive pay to compensate for the time spent negotiating.
APFA National President Julie Hedrick said, “Among the many improvements, the contract includes a new sit rig for compensation for long sits between flights, and American Airlines Flight Attendants become the first unionized workgroup to lock in pay for boarding.”
In addition to offering industry-leading pay rates, the agreement provides wage increases for future years, addresses numerous quality-of-life issues and improves the rules for scheduling, rescheduling and reserving work.
The contract negotiations started in January 2020 but paused at the height of the pandemic and resumed in June 2021. The contract becomes amenable on Oct. 1, 2029.
With U.S. airlines grappling with the labor shortage, the bargaining power of various labor groups has increased as air travel demand is buoyant, having bounced back very strongly from the pandemic lows. As a result of the increased bargaining power, various labor deals have been witnessed in the airline space of late.
AAL’s Stock Price Performance
AAL is currently encountering several headwinds, ranging from high costs to escalated debt. As a result, the stock has declined 23.4% over the past six months compared to its industry’s 2.5% uptick.
AAL’s Zacks Rank
American Airlines currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks for investors’ consideration in the Zacks Transportation sector include C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. CHRW has an expected earnings growth rate of 25.2% for the current year.
The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 7.3%. Shares of CHRW have risen 14.2% in the past year.
WAB carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present and has an expected earnings growth rate of 26% for the current year.
The company has a discouraging track record with respect to the earnings surprise, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 11.8%. Shares of WAB have climbed 57.4% in the past year.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Seattle, WA-based airline heavyweight Alaska Air Group (ALK) have had a good time on the bourses of late, improving in double-digits over the past 30 days. The encouraging price performance resulted in ALK outperforming its industry in the said time frame. Moreover, ALK’s price performance compares favorably with that of fellow U.S. airline operators Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) and Delta Air Lines DAL in the same time frame.
One-Month Price Comparison
Currently trading at $41.34, the stock rebounded 34.44% from its 52-week low of $30.75 on Nov. 1, 2023. However, it still reflects a significant 10.42% discount from its 52-week high of $46.15 reached on April 22.
Given the recent rally, the question that naturally arises is whether ALK stock can sustain its bullish price performance or should investors book profits now. Before that, let's delve deep to unearth the reasons behind this northward price movement.
ALK Issues Bullish Q3 View on Upbeat Summer Travel
ALK has raised its third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to the range of $2.15-$2.25 from the previously guided range of $1.40 to $1.60. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS is currently pegged at $1.64. Improved revenue and fuel cost outlook have led to the encouraging EPS forecast.
Backed by the upbeat demand, Alaska Air now expects its third-quarter 2024 revenue per available seat mile (a key measure of unit revenues) to be up 2% on a year-over-year basis, an improvement from the previous forecast of flat to positive.
ALK continues to expect third-quarter capacity (measured in available seat miles) to increase in the range of 2-3% on a year-over-year basis.
Declining fuel expenses (owing to the moderating crude oil and West Coast refining margins) mark another major positive. ALK now anticipates third-quarter 2024 economic fuel cost per gallon in the range of $2.60-$2.70 (prior view: $2.85-$2.95). Lower fuel costs should boost the company’s bottom line, as fuel expenses represent a key input cost for any transportation player.
Apart from the air travel demand strength, additional revenues in July related to the CrowdStrike CRWD-induced disruptions across the industry and stronger performance in August and September also contributed to ALK’s top-line growth. The global technology outage on July 19, caused by security software provider CrowdStrike’s software update, has hit some of the major U.S. airlines, leading to multiple flight cancelations. ALK reaped the benefits from the troubles of its competitors’ flight cancelations.
Driven by upbeat air-travel demand, ALK has introduced new routes. ALK has also increased the number of daily flights in its network that fly to popular destinations. The expansion of capacity to meet the demand swell in summer seems to have paid off.
Impressive Valuation Picture for ALK Stock
From a valuation perspective, ALK is trading at a discount compared to the industry, going by its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio. The reading is also below its median over the last five years. The company has a Value Score of A.
Rising Expenses Weigh on Alaska Air Stock
Escalating operating expenses due to the rise in labor and airport costs are hurting ALK’s bottom line. Expenses on wages and benefits increased 7% during the first half of 2024. Evidently, operating expenses were up 2% during the first half of 2024.
Consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) rose 4% year over year to 10.67 cents in the first half of 2024.
For third-quarter 2024, consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) are expected to increase in the high single digits.
Given this headwind surrounding the stock, earnings estimates have been southbound, as shown below.
To Conclude
It is understood that ALK stock is attractively valued, and upbeat air travel demand is contributing to ALK’s top line. However, investors should refrain from rushing to buy ALK now due to the headwinds that it faces.
Instead, they should monitor the company’s developments closely for a more appropriate entry point. For those who already own the stock, it will be prudent to stay invested. The stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) supports our thesis. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
American Airlines AAL will cease to be a member of the S&P 500 from Sept. 23. After exiting the coveted index, the airline become part of the S&P MidCap 400 index. The change is part of the S&P 500 index’s quarterly adjustment process and reflects AAL’s overall loss of market capitalization over time. AAL's market capitalization, as of Sept. 16, 2024, was $7.1 billion, down drastically from around $37 billion in December 2014.
Post Sept. 23, only three airline stocks will remain in the S&P 500 index — Delta Air Lines DAL, United Airlines UAL and Southwest Airlines LUV.
The erosion of market cap over time and the subsequent exit from S&P is hardly surprising, given the disappointing price performance of AAL stock. Over the past year, AAL shares have not only declined in high-double-digits but also underperformed its industry and the three airlines mentioned above.
One-Year Price Performance
American Airlines' technical indicators suggest that further downside could be ahead. The stock has been trading below the 200-day moving average, a key technical level often used by traders to gauge momentum.
200-Day Moving Average Signals Bearish Trend
Major Headwinds That Are Hurting AAL
The northward movement in operating expenses is hurting American Airlines’ bottom line, challenging its financial stability. In the first half of 2024, total operating expenses rose 7.9% year over year to $25.5 billion. The surge in operating expenses was primarily caused by an increase in labor costs and fuel expenses. Expenses on wages and benefits rose 13.1% at the same time. As a result of the deal with pilots inked last year, labor costs are surging.
The ongoing production cuts adopted by major oil-producing nations and geopolitical tensions are pushing up fuel costs. Management expects fuel prices (including taxes) to be between $2.55 and $2.75 per gallon for the third quarter of 2024. The metric is expected to be between $2.65 per gallon and $2.75 per gallon for the full year.
We are also concerned about its high debt levels. The company’s times interest earned ratio of 1.5 at 2023-end compares unfavorably with the industry’s ratio of 4.6.
Long-Term Debt to Capitalization
Given the headwinds surrounding the stock, earnings estimates have been southbound, as shown below.
AAL’s Valuation: A Silver Lining
From a valuation perspective, AAL is trading at a discount compared to the industry, going by its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio. The reading is also below its median over the last five years. The company has a Value Score of A.
Final Verdict
AAL’s attractive valuation is a positive. However, given the headwinds mentioned throughout the right-up, we believe that investors should not buy the stock at present. Instead, they should monitor the company’s developments closely for an appropriate entry point. For those who already own the stock, it will be prudent to stay invested. The stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) supports our thesis.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Alaska Air Group?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Alaska Air Group (ALK) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 17, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.98 a share.
Alaska Air Group's Earnings ESP sits at +14.84%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.98 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72. ALK is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ALK is part of a big group of Transportation stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at United Airlines (UAL) as well.
Slated to report earnings on October 15, 2024, United Airlines holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $3.25 a share 28 days from its next quarterly update.
United Airlines' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +6.73% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.05.
ALK and UAL's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider American Airlines?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. American Airlines (AAL) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.32 a share 30 days away from its upcoming earnings release on October 17, 2024.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.32 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.04 Zacks Consensus Estimate, American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +674.82%. Investors should also know that AAL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AAL is one of just a large database of Transportation stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Copa Holdings (CPA).
Copa Holdings is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 20, 2024. CPA's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.50 a share 64 days from its next earnings release.
For Copa Holdings, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.43 is +1.9%.
AAL and CPA's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
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