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Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. With a market cap of $31.7 billion, this leader in energy transformation and expansion provides essential power resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. The company is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities.
Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and VST perfectly fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this mark, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the independent utilities power producers industry. Vistra’s diversified energy portfolio, spanning nuclear, coal, natural gas, and solar, positions the company for resilience and stability. The strategic acquisition of Energy Harbor boosts capacity to 41 gigawatts, enhancing market leadership.
Despite its notable strength, VST has slipped 15% from its 52-week high of $107.24, achieved on May 28. Over the past three months, VST stock has gained 4.1%, underperforming the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund 13.4% gains during the same time frame.
However, VST looks more appealing in the longer term, as its shares rose 136.7% on a YTD basis and climbed 172.3% over the past 52 weeks, significantly outperforming XLU’s YTD gains of 23.9% and 21.9% returns over the last year.
To reinforce the bullish trend, VST has consistently traded above its 200-day moving average over the past year and is currently positioned above its 50-day moving average in a couple of trading sessions.
Vistra's strong performance can be attributed to a license extension for one of its plants and rising power market prices. The utility company partnered with Sunrun Inc. to launch the TXU Energy & Sunrun Battery Rewards program in Texas, allowing homeowners with solar panels and batteries to contribute stored energy to the grid during peak demand. The company’s persistent innovation in energy efficiency, like the recent completion of the DeCordova Energy Storage Facility, which provides 260 megawatts of emission-free power to the grid, further bolsters its performance.
On Sep. 13, VST shares closed up more than 6% after Jeffries named the stock its top pick in the power sector with a “Buy” recommendation and a price target of $99.
On Aug. 8, VST shares closed up more than 6% after reporting its Q2 earnings results. Its revenue stood at $3.8 billion, up 20.6% year over year. Plus, its full-year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.
In the competitive arena of independent utility power producers, Talen Energy Corporation has taken the lead over VST, showing resilience with a 167.2% uptick on a YTD basis and solid 211.5% gains over the past 52 weeks.
Wall Street analysts are highly bullish on VST’s prospects. The stock has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating from the 10 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $115 suggests a potential upside of 26.1% from current price levels.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The most recent trading session ended with Sunrun (RUN) standing at $20.30, reflecting a -0.05% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. This change was narrower than the S&P 500's 0.29% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.25%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.31%.
The solar energy products distributor's shares have seen an increase of 6.39% over the last month, surpassing the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 2.45% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Sunrun in its upcoming release. In that report, analysts expect Sunrun to post earnings of -$0.21 per share. This would mark a year-over-year decline of 152.5%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $561.33 million, indicating a 0.33% decrease compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$0.16 per share and a revenue of $2.14 billion, indicating changes of +97.76% and -5.41%, respectively, from the former year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Sunrun should also be noted by investors. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 59.8% higher within the past month. Sunrun presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Solar industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 177, positioning it in the bottom 31% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Zacks Investment Research
Technology and innovation are the backbone of the global economy and the U.S. stock market. While there are times when commodity stocks, old economy companies, and value-oriented stocks can outperform, history teaches us that the most robust gains come from disruptive companies within the technology sector. For example, Meta Platforms (META) unique social media platforms caught fire in the 2000s and led to breathtaking profits for investors. Though Alphabet (GOOGL) was not first in the search engine arena, the company mastered search and later video with its YouTube platform. Jeff Bezos proved that e-commerce could be scaled through Amazon (AMZN).
It would take years for me to list even a portion of America’s success stories. The good news for investors who missed these moves is that the wheels of America’s top tech innovators are constantly turning. As investors, our job is to identify megatrends, uncover the top innovators, and ride the trends as long as possible. Below are my top two megatrends to watch over the next decade:
Space Stocks
Technological advancements (such as rocket reusability), efficiency gains, and the evolution of public-private partnerships are rapidly transforming the space industry from pipedream to reality. Though getting to this level has been a long and frustrating road, the “final frontier” promises fruitful rewards for successful space companies. McKinsey estimates that “the global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023.”
Space Industry: Satellites and Defense
While accessibility to space has increased dramatically, profitability is still mainly prevalent in two areas: satellites and defense.
· Satellites: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) rocketed more than 50% today after NASA awarded the company a deal valued up to $4.82 billion to provide satellites to NASA’s Artemis program. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), a company building a space-based cellular broadband network, is up nearly 500% year-to-date.
· Defense: U.S. defense spending jumped from $320 billion in 2000 to over $800 billion in 2024.The trend of higher defense spending is highly unlikely to subside, especially as the world’s superpowers jockey for dominance in space. As a result, defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) should continue to benefit.
AI Stocks
Artificial intelligence has been discussed by technologists for decades. However, like the space industry, until recently, the AI industry was a pipedream. However, monumental breakthroughs in the semiconductor industry, mainly from Nvidia (NVDA), have led to new possibilities and a burgeoning mega trend. Below are three AI areas to watch:
· Chatbots: OpenAI made headlines recently as news fundraising talks could value the ChatGPT operator at a mind-boggling $150 billion. Though OpenAI and its largest investor Microsoft (MSFT), have to make strides in profitability, investors should not ignore the area industry that brought industry that brought AI to the public conscience.
· Data Center & Utilities: Large, energy-sucking data centers are required to build AI models that run large language models (LLMs). Names like Vertiv (VRT), which is a leader in AI infrastructure, and utilities likeVistra (VST) are “picks and shovels” to the upcoming AI gold rush.
· Robotaxis and Robots: Autonomous driving has already proven safer than today’s distracted human drivers. Tesla (TSLA) and other autonomous vehicle makers will make the roads safer and generate revenue by cutting out the need for human drivers in ridesharing services like Uber (UBER). Meanwhile, Tesla’s visionary CEO Elon Musk promises to unveil the Tesla Bot” robot in the coming years (the robot is already completing tasks for Tesla). With labor costs increasing, robots could be a way for companies to cut costs.
Bottom Line
Technological advances are at the heart of the most significant stock market advances. As the wheels of innovation continue to turn, investors should focus their research on burgeoning megatrends in AI and space over the next decade.
Zacks Investment Research
Sunrun (RUN) reached a significant support level, and could be a good pick for investors from a technical perspective. Recently, RUN broke through the 20-day moving average, which suggests a short-term bullish trend.
A well-liked tool among traders, the 20-day simple moving average offers a look back at a stock's price over a 20-day period. This is very beneficial to short-term traders, as it smooths out short-term price trends and gives more trend reversal signals than longer-term moving averages.
The 20-day moving average can show signals that are similar to other SMAs as well. If a stock's price is moving above the 20-day, the trend is considered positive. When the price falls below the moving average, it can signal a downward trend.
RUN has rallied 6.4% over the past four weeks, and the company is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at the moment. This combination suggests RUN could be on the verge of another move higher.
Looking at RUN's earnings estimate revisions, investors will be even more convinced of the bullish uptrend. There have been 10 revisions higher for the current fiscal year compared to none lower, and the consensus estimate has moved up as well.
Investors should think about putting RUN on their watchlist given the ultra-important technical indicator and positive move in earnings estimate revisions.
Zacks Investment Research
For Immediate Releases
Chicago, IL – September 18, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Broadcom AVGO, Warner Bros. Discovery WBD, Super Micro Computer SMCI, Vistra VST and AES Corp AES.
Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:
5 Stocks That Led the SPY ETF to Its Best Week of 2024
Wall Street surged last week marking strong weekly gains as market watchers raised its expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Last week was the best week of the year for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
For the week, the Nasdaq rose more than 5%. U.S. semiconductor stocks logged a rally last week.The S&P 500 gained 4%, and the Dow increased by 2%. These gains came amid a volatile market, but the rapid recovery coincided with intensifying debate over interest rate policy.
Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise
The market’s upward momentum was aided by increasing anticipation of a half-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which was previously viewed as unlikely. Traders are now assigning a 49% probability to a 50-basis point cut next week, up from just 15% on Sept. 12, 2024.
This shift in expectations was aided by reports from the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, suggesting the Fed's decision on Sept. 18 will be closely contested. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley added to the speculation, stating there is a "strong case" for a deeper rate cut.
Treasury Yields Fall Amid Rate Cut Debate
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury declined to 3.66% on Sept. 13, 2024 from 3.70% recorded on Sept. 9, 2024. The recent fluctuations in Treasury yields reflect ongoing market uncertainty over whether the Fed will opt for a 0.25% or 0.5% rate cut, as concerns over a labor market weakness and recession risks continue to cause volatility.
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few stocks that helped the S&P 500 and its related exchange traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to log the best week of this year.
Winning Stocks of the Week
Broadcom– Up 20.8% Last Week
The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is a premier designer, developer and global supplier of a broad range of semiconductor devices with a focus on complex digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) based devices and analog III-V based products.
The average earnings surprise of AVGO for the past four quarters is 3.28%.
Warner Bros. Discovery– Up 17.1% Last Week
The Zacks Rank #3 Warner Bros. Discovery is a premier global media and entertainment company that combines WarnerMedia Business’s premium entertainment, sports and news assets with Discovery’s leading non-fiction and international entertainment and sports businesses, thus offering audiences a differentiated portfolio of content, brands and franchises across television, film, streaming and gaming.
Although WBD failed to post the positive average earnings surprise for the past four quarters, the media conglomerate’s shares surged on Friday due to a deal with Charter Communications that will bring the Max streaming service to standard cable packages.
Super Micro Computer– Up 16.4% Last Week
Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells energy-efficient, application optimized server solutions based on the x86 architecture. The stock has a Zacks Rank #3.
The average earnings surprise of SMCI for the past four quarters is 0.60%.
Vistra – Up 14.2% Last Week
The Zacks Rank #3 Vistra Energy Corp. is an energy company. It offers electricity and power generation, distribution and transmission solutions. Vistra Energy Corp. is based in Dallas, United States.
Although Vistra couldn’t deliver the positive average earnings surprise for the past four quarters, shares of Vistra Corp. surged on Friday as the nuclear power generator announced a license extension for one of its plants and power market prices soared.
AES Corp – Up 14.2% Last Week
The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Arlington, VA-based the AES Corporation, is a global power company. The company’s businesses are spread across four continents in 14 countries. The company has four Strategic Business Units (SBUs) located in the United States and other regions across the globe.
The average earnings surprise of AES for the past four quarters is 19.18%.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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