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Xperi (XPER) closed the last trading session at $8.57, gaining 15.8% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $18.75 indicates an 118.8% upside potential.
The mean estimate comprises four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $7.89. While the lowest estimate of $12 indicates a 40% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the stock to surge 250.1% to reach $30. It's very important to note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.
However, an impressive consensus price target is not the only factor that indicates a potential upside in XPER. This view is strengthened by the agreement among analysts that the company will report better earnings than what they estimated earlier. Though a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't give any idea as to how much the stock could surge, it has proven effective in predicting an upside.
Here's What You May Not Know About Analysts' Price Targets
According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Here's Why There Could be Plenty of Upside Left in XPER
There has been increasing optimism among analysts lately about the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher. And that could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current year, one estimate has moved higher over the last 30 days compared to no negative revision. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 12.6%.
Moreover, XPER currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much XPER could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
Zacks Investment Research
Momentum investing is essentially an exception to the idea of "buying low and selling high." Investors following this style of investing are usually not interested in betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.
Everyone likes betting on fast-moving trending stocks, but it isn't easy to determine the right entry point. These stocks often lose momentum when their future growth potential fails to justify their swelled-up valuation. In that phase, investors find themselves invested in shares that have limited to no upside or even a downside. So, betting on a stock just by looking at the traditional momentum parameters could be risky at times.
It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
There are several stocks that currently pass through the screen and Xperi (XPER) is one of them. Here are the key reasons why this stock is a great candidate.
Investors' growing interest in a stock is reflected in its recent price increase. A price change of 15.8% over the past four weeks positions the stock of this media software company well in this regard.
While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. XPER meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 6.9% over the past 12 weeks.
Moreover, the momentum for XPER is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.57. This indicates that the stock moves 57% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that XPER has a Momentum Score of B, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.
In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped XPER earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, XPER is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. XPER is currently trading at 0.78 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 78 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, XPER appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
In addition to XPER, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.
However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Zacks Investment Research
Reporter Name | Kirchner Jon |
Relationship | CEO & President |
Type | Purchase |
Amount | $43,242 |
SEC Filing | Form 4 |
Jon Kirchner, CEO & President of Xperi, reported purchasing 5,000 shares of the company's common stock on September 11, 2024, at a price of $8.6485 per share, totaling $43,242. Following this transaction, Kirchner directly owns 523,692 shares of Xperi.
SEC Filing: Xperi Inc. [ XPER ] - Form 4 - Sep. 12, 2024
Xperi appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.
The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.
Individual investors often find it hard to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, since these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time. In these situations, the Zacks rating system comes in handy because of the power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements.
Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for Xperi basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices
The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, has proven to be strongly correlated with the near-term price movement of its stock. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.
Fundamentally speaking, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade for Xperi imply an improvement in the company's underlying business. Investors should show their appreciation for this improving business trend by pushing the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions
As empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, tracking such revisions for making an investment decision could be truly rewarding. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Earnings Estimate Revisions for Xperi
This media software company is expected to earn $0.54 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, which represents a year-over-year change of 5300%.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Xperi. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 12.6%.
Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
The upgrade of Xperi to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Xperi closed the last trading session at $8.94, gaining 12% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $18.75 indicates a 109.7% upside potential.
The average comprises four short-term price targets ranging from a low of $12 to a high of $30, with a standard deviation of $7.89. While the lowest estimate indicates an increase of 34.2% from the current price level, the most optimistic estimate points to a 235.6% upside. More than the range, one should note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.
But, for XPER, an impressive average price target is not the only indicator of a potential upside. Strong agreement among analysts about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier strengthens this view. While a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't gauge how much a stock could gain, it has proven to be powerful in predicting an upside.
Here's What You Should Know About Analysts' Price Targets
According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Here's Why There Could be Plenty of Upside Left in XPER
There has been increasing optimism among analysts lately about the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher. And that could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current year, one estimate has moved higher over the last 30 days compared to no negative revision. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 12.6%.
Moreover, XPER currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much XPER could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
Zacks Investment Research
Momentum investing is essentially an exception to the idea of "buying low and selling high." Investors following this style of investing are usually not interested in betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.
Everyone likes betting on fast-moving trending stocks, but it isn't easy to determine the right entry point. These stocks often lose momentum when their future growth potential fails to justify their swelled-up valuation. In that phase, investors find themselves invested in shares that have limited to no upside or even a downside. So, betting on a stock just by looking at the traditional momentum parameters could be risky at times.
It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
Xperi is one of the several great candidates that made it through the screen. While there are numerous reasons why this stock is a great choice, here are the most vital ones:
Investors' growing interest in a stock is reflected in its recent price increase. A price change of 12% over the past four weeks positions the stock of this media software company well in this regard.
While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. XPER meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 9.6% over the past 12 weeks.
Moreover, the momentum for XPER is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.56. This indicates that the stock moves 56% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that XPER has a Momentum Score of B, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.
In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped XPER earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, XPER is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. XPER is currently trading at 0.81 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 81 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, XPER appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
In addition to XPER, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.
However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Zacks Investment Research
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