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Shares of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) have gained 3.5% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $42.34, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $55.57 indicates a potential upside of 31.3%.
The average comprises seven short-term price targets ranging from a low of $40 to a high of $90, with a standard deviation of $19.30. While the lowest estimate indicates a decline of 5.5% from the current price level, the most optimistic estimate points to an 112.6% upside. More than the range, one should note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.
However, an impressive consensus price target is not the only factor that indicates a potential upside in CBRL. This view is strengthened by the agreement among analysts that the company will report better earnings than what they estimated earlier. Though a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't give any idea as to how much the stock could surge, it has proven effective in predicting an upside.
Here's What You May Not Know About Analysts' Price Targets
According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Here's Why There Could be Plenty of Upside Left in CBRL
There has been increasing optimism among analysts lately about the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher. And that could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 0.4%, as two estimates have moved higher while one has gone lower.
Moreover, CBRL currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much CBRL could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
Zacks Investment Research
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Sept. 19. In the last reported quarter, CBRL registered an earnings surprise of 57.1%.
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.17, which indicates a deterioration of 34.6% from $1.79 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $898.8 million, which implies an increase of 7.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Let’s check out the factors that might have influenced CBRL’s performance in the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play for CBRL
Cracker Barrel's fiscal fourth-quarter top line is likely to have been aided by menu innovation, higher menu pricing, expansion and other sales-building efforts. Given the growing demand for its breakfast category, including Homestyle Chicken, French Toast, Barrel Bites and beverages, Cracker Barrel introduced its $5 take-home meals at the beginning of fiscal 2024, which is expected to have aided the company’s top line.
The company is also benefiting from growth in off-premise sales. It continues to focus on off-premise initiatives, such as curbside delivery, third-party delivery and family meal baskets. These efforts are likely to have aided the off-premise sales.
Our model predicts Restaurant and Retail revenues to be $715.9 million and $168.2 million, respectively, up 7.9% and 6.9% year over year. However, dismal traffic and same-store sales are expected to have negatively impacted the company’s results. Our model predicts retail same-store sales to decline 0.5% year over year. CBRL’s retail business faces challenges stemming from broader industry pressures, particularly in discretionary categories.
Strategic investments in advertising and labor are likely to have increased costs and exerted margin pressure in the to-be-reported quarter. For fourth-quarter fiscal 2024, our model predicts labor and other related expenses to rise 9% year over year to $332.6 million. We expect store-operating expenses to increase 8.4% year over year to $821.6 million. Our model predicts adjusted-operating income to decline 30.7% year over year to $27.6 million.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Quote
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP: Cracker Barrel currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.74%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.94% and a Zacks Rank #3. Shares of Domino's have risen 6.4% in the past year. DPZ’s earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 11.2%.
Papa John's International, Inc. PZZA has an Earnings ESP of +2.11% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. Shares of Papa John's have lost 32.9% in the past year. PZZA’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 13.6%.
Starbucks Corporation SBUX currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.61% and a Zacks Rank #3. Shares of Starbucks have lost 0.5% in the past year. SBUX’s earnings beat the consensus mark in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average surprise of 1.7%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Potbelly Corporation PBPB have gained 8.7% in the past three months, outperforming the industry’s 5.3% growth. Despite facing macroeconomic pressures, the company’s ability to grow in a tough environment, alongside its successful expansion strategy, has caught the attention of investors. But does this mean it’s time to buy PBPB stock?
Major Growth Drivers for PBPB Stock
Franchise Expansion: Potbelly’s growth strategy revolves around aggressive franchising, and the company is making significant progress in expanding its footprint. With 663 open and committed shops, Potbelly is on track to reach its long-term goal of 2,000 units across the United States. Franchise expansion provides Potbelly with a capital-light growth model, allowing the company to open more stores while minimizing risk. The company is optimistic about the franchise model's potential to fuel sustained growth, as Potbelly continues to sign deals in new markets, including its entry into Georgia.
Digital Transformation: Potbelly has made significant strides in growing its digital sales. During the second quarter of 2024, digital channels accounted for 40% of total shop sales, up 200 basis points year over year. The company’s enhanced loyalty program, Potbelly Perks, is playing a major role in this success. Customers who join the Perks program demonstrate increased frequency in visits and higher engagement, making it a powerful tool for customer retention and sales growth. The ongoing shift toward Potbelly-owned digital channels also enhances profitability, as it reduces reliance on third-party platforms. As Potbelly continues to innovate in this space, it is likely to drive higher frequency and increased sales from its growing base of loyal customers.
Value-Driven Menu: With inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending, Potbelly has positioned itself as a value-driven brand. The introduction of the $7.99 Everyday Value Combo has been a notable success, attracting price-conscious customers while still protecting margins. This value-driven menu strategy has not only driven incremental sales but has also boosted customer satisfaction and return intent, making Potbelly a go-to option in a price-sensitive market.
Strong Future Outlook: Potbelly is set to continue expanding, with plans to open at least 30 new shops in 2024 and even more in 2025. The strong performance of recently opened shops, which are outperforming sales forecasts, is another indicator of the company’s successful market planning and operational execution. While the broader economic environment remains uncertain, Potbelly’s proactive approach to customer value, operational efficiency and digital transformation ensures that it is well-positioned for future growth.
The Bottom Line: Should You Buy PBPB Now?
Potbelly’s recent success is undeniable. The company is firing on all cylinders — expanding through franchising, transforming digitally and offering great value to customers. However, PBPB stock is currently trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 33.10X, well above the industry average of 24.59X. This high valuation, combined with an uncertain economic climate, means that it may not be the best time now to dive into a fresh purchase.
For current shareholders, holding onto your PBPB stock and watching how the company continues to grow seems like a smart move. But for new investors, it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point before jumping in.
PBPB's Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
PBPB currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector include Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL and El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Texas Roadhouse has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. TXRH’s shares have risen 65.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXRH’s 2024 sales and earnings per Share (EPS) indicates 15.6% and 39.2% growth, respectively, from the year-earlier actuals.
Cracker Barrel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. CBRL’s shares have declined 38.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s 2024 EPS indicates 0.94% growth from the year-earlier actuals.
El Pollo Loco Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 52.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS indicates 2% and 12.7% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.
Zacks Investment Research
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH has been on a sizzling run this year, with its stock climbing an impressive 35.4%, outpacing the industry’s modest 1.9% growth. But what’s fueling this surge and is there still room for investors to enjoy more gains?
The company’s stellar performance can be attributed to a combination of strong same-store sales, a growing digital presence and aggressive expansion initiatives. Not only has Texas Roadhouse exceeded earnings expectations in four of the last five quarters but also analysts are bullish on its future. Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been raised by 4.5% and 4%, respectively, signaling confidence in the company’s outlook.
Major Growth Drivers for TXRH Stock
Same-Store Sales and Traffic Gains: TXRH continues to benefit from impressive same-store sales performance. In the second quarter of 2024, Texas Roadhouse’s same-store sales increased 9.3% year over year, reflecting a robust demand for the brand’s offerings. The upside was driven by a rise in guest traffic along with an increase in our per-person average check. The increase in store weeks was due to new store openings.
The company’s ability to maintain strong traffic growth is underpinned by its commitment to providing a high-quality dining experience. Texas Roadhouse’s traffic rose 4.5% in the second quarter, which, combined with a 4.8% increase in average check, led to solid sales momentum. The brand’s unique proposition, centered on value and customer loyalty, has kept it competitive in the casual dining industry despite rising competition and promotional activity from rivals.
Beyond Texas Roadhouse - Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers: TXRH operates not only the Texas Roadhouse brand but also Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers, both of which are gaining significant traction. During the second quarter, Bubba’s 33 reported impressive weekly sales of $123,000 and continues to build guest loyalty. Jaggers, the company’s quick-service brand, witnessed rising consumer awareness, with weekly sales of $73,000. Additionally, Jaggers is expanding its international footprint, with its first franchise location set to open in South Korea. This multi-brand strategy diversifies Texas Roadhouse’s revenue streams and boosts long-term growth potential.
Tech-Driven Efficiency: Texas Roadhouse continues to invest in technology, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer experience. In the second quarter, the company completed the rollout of its "Roadie First" technology system, which enhances mobile accessibility for employees.
Moreover, Texas Roadhouse is investing in digital kitchen upgrades, with a full rollout expected by 2025. These enhancements aim to streamline service, reduce wait times and boost overall efficiency, which will not only improve margins but also strengthen its competitive edge in a fast-evolving dining landscape.
What’s Next for Texas Roadhouse?
The company’s growth story shows no signs of slowing down. In the first four weeks of third quarter 2024, same-store sales are up by 8%, continuing the momentum from the previous quarter. Texas Roadhouse’s disciplined approach to menu pricing is helping it maintain its value proposition, even inflationary pressures remain a concern. With strong traffic, expanding brands and technology investments set to enhance margins, Texas Roadhouse looks well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory.
Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
TXRH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector include Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL, Potbelly Corporation PBPB and El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Cracker Barrel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. CBRL’s shares have declined 38.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s 2024 earnings per share (EPS) indicates 0.94% growth from the year-earlier actuals.
Potbelly Corporation has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 77.5%, on average. The stock has dropped 1.1% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBPB’s fiscal 2024 EPS implies 33% growth on 6.5% lower revenues from the year-ago levels.
El Pollo Loco Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 52.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS indicates 2% and 12.7% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors looking for stocks in the Retail - Restaurants sector might want to consider either Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) or Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks? Let's take a closer look.
Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The proven Zacks Rank emphasizes companies with positive estimate revision trends, and our Style Scores highlight stocks with specific traits.
Currently, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Chipotle Mexican Grill has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell). This system places an emphasis on companies that have seen positive earnings estimate revisions, so investors should feel comfortable knowing that CBRL is likely seeing its earnings outlook improve to a greater extent. But this is just one piece of the puzzle for value investors.
Value investors are also interested in a number of tried-and-true valuation metrics that help show when a company is undervalued at its current share price levels.
The Style Score Value grade factors in a variety of key fundamental metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a number of other key stats that are commonly used by value investors.
CBRL currently has a forward P/E ratio of 12.68, while CMG has a forward P/E of 53.21. We also note that CBRL has a PEG ratio of 1.04. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.41.
Another notable valuation metric for CBRL is its P/B ratio of 2.11. The P/B is a method of comparing a stock's market value to its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. By comparison, CMG has a P/B of 21.27.
These metrics, and several others, help CBRL earn a Value grade of A, while CMG has been given a Value grade of F.
CBRL sticks out from CMG in both our Zacks Rank and Style Scores models, so value investors will likely feel that CBRL is the better option right now.
Zacks Investment Research
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors rely on traditional forms of analysis on key valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are undervalued, leaving room for profits.
Luckily, Zacks has developed its own Style Scores system in an effort to find stocks with specific traits. Value investors will be interested in the system's "Value" category. Stocks with both "A" grades in the Value category and high Zacks Ranks are among the strongest value stocks on the market right now.
One stock to keep an eye on is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL). CBRL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 11.81 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 24.56. CBRL's Forward P/E has been as high as 16.59 and as low as 9.19, with a median of 12.86, all within the past year.
Investors will also notice that CBRL has a PEG ratio of 0.97. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. CBRL's PEG compares to its industry's average PEG of 1.70. Within the past year, CBRL's PEG has been as high as 7.15 and as low as 0.90, with a median of 2.18.
Value investors will likely look at more than just these metrics, but the above data helps show that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is likely undervalued currently. And when considering the strength of its earnings outlook, CBRL sticks out at as one of the market's strongest value stocks.
Zacks Investment Research
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