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The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Nice (NICE) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
Nice currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.07, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 15 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.07 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 15 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 14 are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 93.3% and 6.7% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for NICE
While the ABR calls for buying Nice, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near -term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks Rank
In spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Should You Invest in NICE?
In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Nice, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $10.73.
Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Nice. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Nice.
Zacks Investment Research
Nice NICE shares have risen 4.3% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s decline of 2.2%.
The upside can be attributed to Nice’s diverse portfolio, which is helping it gain new customers. Actimize, Evidencentral, CXone and Inform Elite are some of the solutions that have been gaining popularity. NICE’s focus on its Evidencentral platform has been a key catalyst.
Nice recently announced that the Pinal County Attorney’s Office in Arizona would be adopting its NICE Justice digital evidence management solution, part of the AI-driven Evidencentral platform.
The latest development aims to transform how the office handles digital evidence, providing a streamlined, cloud-based system that enhances efficiency and service delivery.
Nice Price and Consensus
Nice price-consensus-chart | Nice Quote
With its AI-powered features for object detection, automated case building and evidence management, NICE Justice will ease the burden on Pinal County’s legal professionals, enabling them to focus more on its core mission of providing exceptional legal representation and ensuring community safety.
However, does the strong portfolio and expanding clientele make the NICE stock attractive? Let’s look at its fundamentals.
Robust Portfolio Boosts Nice’s Prospects
NICE’s expanding portfolio has been a major growth driver of its success. In August, NICE announced that the Augusta (Georgia) Judicial Circuit DA’s Office would deploy NICE Justice to expedite case processing and enhance digital evidence management.
Nice has a diverse portfolio, which is helping it gain new customers. Its partnerships with AT&T T and Microsoft MSFT have been a key catalyst.
NICE recently expanded its collaboration with AT&T to offer a unified incident capture and data analytics solution for NextGen 9-1-1 centers, showcasing it at APCO 2024.
A deepening partnership with Microsoft is noteworthy. NTR-X Compliance Recording and Assurance Solution has secured transactable solution status in Microsoft’s Azure Marketplace.
NICE’s expanding cloud offerings, mainly its CXone platform, are a plus. During the second quarter of 2024, it reported cloud revenues of $482 million, up 26% year over year.
NICE’s policy of frequently updating its portfolio has been a key catalyst as it aids in fending off competitors from other industry players like Five9 FIVN, Salesforce and 8X8, who are also expanding their portfolio in the CX market.
In June, Five9 announced an enhanced collaboration with Salesforce, integrating AI-powered solutions to improve customer experiences in contact centers.
NICE’s Q3 Guidance Positive
Nice’s efforts to enhance its customer experience with its robust cloud solutions are expected to drive top-line growth.
For the third quarter of 2024, NICE projects non-GAAP revenues to be between $676 million and $686 million, calling for 13% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Non-GAAP earnings are estimated in the $2.62-2.72 per share band, suggesting 18% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $682.67 million, indicating 13.52% growth year over year. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.68 per share, increased by a penny over the past 30 days, indicating an 18.06 % year-over-year increase.
Here’s What Investors Should do With NICE Stock
Despite Nice’s strong portfolio and growing client base, the foreign exchange headwinds in the APAC market and stiff competition are major concerns.
The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for Nice stands at 4.18, higher than its Zacks Computers - IT Services sector’s 2.99, reflecting a stretched valuation.
Nice currently carries Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which suggests that it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point in the stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Nice (NICE) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this software company have returned +4.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change. The Zacks Internet - Software industry, to which Nice belongs, has gained 1.1% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Nice is expected to post earnings of $2.68 per share, indicating a change of +18.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.73 points to a change of +22.1% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +1.3%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $12.19 indicates a change of +13.6% from what Nice is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.3%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Nice.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Nice, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $682.67 million indicates a year-over-year change of +13.5%. For the current and next fiscal years, $2.73 billion and $3.01 billion estimates indicate +14.7% and +10.5% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Nice reported revenues of $664.4 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +14.3%. EPS of $2.64 for the same period compares with $2.13 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $662.88 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.23%. The EPS surprise was +2.33%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Nice is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nice. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Nice has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this software company have returned -1.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change. During this period, the Zacks Internet - Software industry, which Nice falls in, has gained 8.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Nice is expected to post earnings of $2.68 per share, indicating a change of +18.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.73 points to a change of +22.1% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +1.3%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $12.19 indicates a change of +13.6% from what Nice is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.3%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Nice.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Nice, the consensus sales estimate of $682.67 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +13.5%. The $2.73 billion and $3.01 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +14.7% and +10.5%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Nice reported revenues of $664.4 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +14.3%. EPS of $2.64 for the same period compares with $2.13 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $662.88 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.23%. The EPS surprise was +2.33%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Nice is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nice. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Pure Storage?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Pure Storage earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.39 a share, just seven days from its upcoming earnings release on August 28, 2024.
PSTG has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.63%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.39 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38. Pure Storage is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
PSTG is one of just a large database of Computer and Technology stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Nice .
Nice, which is readying to report earnings on November 21, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $2.72 a share, and NICE is 92 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nice is $2.68, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1.68%.
PSTG and NICE's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
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