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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock was down Monday as China’s lackluster economic data led to a sell-off, SCMP reports.
The economy also bears the brunt of the U.S. advanced semiconductor sanctions by restricting its access to sophisticated artificial intelligence chips from Nvidia Corp and peers.
Hyperscalers like Alibaba and Baidu, Inc need the chips to accomplish their AI ambitions. AI can prove to be a crucial benefactor for its e-commerce, logistics and cloud businesses, something that Amazon.Com Inc accomplished.
Also Read: Alibaba And Tencent Lap Up Meta’s AI Large Language Model
Last week, the Biden administration announced tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, steel, aluminum, EV batteries, and critical minerals, effective September 27.
Economic data showed that Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment were disappointing in August. Home prices reported a record low in nine years.
Barclays flagged to SCMP the urgency of stepping up policy easing and boosting domestic demand.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) told SCMP it could slash banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps, followed by another half-point cut in the first half of next year.
Alibaba stock is down close to 3% in the last 12 months.
Alibaba Stock Forecast For 2030
Predicting the future in stock prices over long periods of time is challenging. Wall Street analysts use complex models that take into account interest rates, economic growth, competitive advantages, management teams and historical profitability, among a host of other factors.
If, as an investor, you want to assume most of the major factors remain stable, you can use trend analysis as a helpful tool. Using a longer term trend line or historical performance of the stock, you can aim to forecast a stock's annual rate of return.
For Alibaba, over the past 5 years, it's annualized stock performance is -13.4%, and if you assume that trend continues for another 5 years, you can expect a stock to trade at $40.81.
Using a trend line (see how to perform this function here), If you choose to use a trend line, connect your two points and look into the future to the point in time in which you're curious. Once you've identified that stock price, you may want to consider what type of conditions would need to exist for the stock to justify the share price – be it an outside influence or managerial decision making.
Price Action: BABA stock is down 1.04% at $83.81 at the last check on Monday.
Also Read:
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Nvidia Inc (NVDA) stock is still cheap, as analysts have higher price targets. Moreover, investors can make extra income shorting out-of-the-money put options - 2%+ yields are available at 5% OTM strike prices over 3 weeks.
NVDA stock is at $117.17 in morning trading on Monday, Sept. 16. This is up from recent lows below $100 per share in early August and another recent low of $102.83 on Sept. 6.
This article will discuss why it makes sense now to sell short out-of-the-money put options, especially for existing shareholders.
Target Prices Higher
Nevertheless, analysts still have much higher price targets. For example, Yahoo! Finance reports that the average price target of 50 analysts is $145.22 per share. Barchart's survey shows a similar high price target with a mean of $149.22.
Moreover, AnaChart.com, a sell-side analyst stock recommendation tracking site, reports that 38 analysts who've recently written on NVDA stock have an average target of $148.49. That represents an upside of over 26% from today's price.
These are 12-month price targets. It may take some time and future quarterly reports of exceptional earnings and cash flow for the price target to be hit. As a result, it makes sense for existing shareholders to sell short out-of-the-money put options—that way they can make extra income with potentially lower buy-in price targets.
Shorting OTM Puts
I discussed doing this kind of trade in my last Barchart article on Aug. 13, “Shorting Out-of-the-Money Nvidia Puts Is Working - 2%+ Yields Over 3 Weeks.” The stock was at $114.33 on Aug. 13 and I suggested shorting the $105.00 put options that were to expire on Aug. 30. The premium received was $3.50 for a put contract that was over 8.5% below the stock price.
As it turned out, NVDA closed at $119.37 on Aug. 30, and the investors made an income of 3.33% over 3 weeks (i.e., $3.50/$105.00). And investors who also held NVDA shares made a 4.44% unrealized capital gain.
This kind of trade can now be repeated. For example, look at the Oct. 4 expiration period. It shows that the $109 strike price put contract has a premium of $2.28 per contract. That brings an immediate yield of 2.09% to the short seller of these puts (i.e., $2.28/$109.00).
This is for a strike price over 7.5% below today's spot price for NVDA. In other words, the investor who secures $10,900 in cash with their brokerage firm can make $228 in immediate income per put contract sold short.
Moreover, even if the stock falls to $109, the investor's breakeven price, given the income already received, is $109-$2.28, or $106.72. That's about $10 below today's price, or 8.56% out-of-the-money (i.e., $106.72/$116.72-1).
This looks like a very good trade for most investors, especially those looking to buy into NVDA stock should it fall again. It is also a way for existing investors to make extra income while they wait for the stock to rise.
For example, if this trade can be repeated every three weeks for a quarter, the expected return (ER) is $228 x 4, or $912. That works out to an ER yield of 8.37% (i.e., $912/$10,900), assuming the same put yield can be made each time.
The bottom line is that NVDA looks cheap here and this short-put play is one way to take advantage of the stock's volatility and higher price targets.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The S&P 500 Index today is down by -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down by -0.92%.
Stocks today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new record high. Apple is down more than -3% today to weigh on the overall market on signs of weak demand for the new iPhone. Also, the weakness in chip makers today is a drag on the broader market. However, Intel is up more than +4% to lift the Dow Jones Industrials after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Today’s US economic news was hawkish for Fed policy after the Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose +16.2 to a 2-1/3 year high of 11.5, stronger than expectations of -4.0.
Corporate news today is mixed for stocks. On the negative side, Apple is down more than -2% after TF International said weekend pre-order sales show demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weaker than expected. On the positive side, Oracle is up more than +4% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy.
This week, the market will focus on Tuesday’s US Aug retail sales report to see if consumer spending is holding up. The consensus is that Aug retail sales will fall by -0.2% m/m but that Aug retail sales ex-autos will increase by +0.2% m/m. The markets will also look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum or whether they will decide for a larger -50 bp rate cut instead. Post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will also be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 63% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Signs of weakness in China’s economy are negative for global growth prospects. China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y. Also, China Aug retail sales rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. In addition, China Aug new home prices fell -0.73% m/m, the largest decline in 9-3/4 years.
Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.37%. China's Shanghai Composite was closed for the Mid-autumn Festival holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 was closed for the Respect-for-the-Aged Day holiday.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are up +2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.5 bp at 3.636%. Dec T-notes today are slightly higher on heightened speculation the Fed will cut interest rates by -50 bp at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting. Swap markets showed the chances of a -50 bp rate cut rose to 63% today from 52% last Friday. T-notes fell back from their best levels today after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose more than expected to a 2-1/3 year high. Also, rising inflation expectations are negative for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-1/2 week high today of 2.100%.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.7 bp at 2.121%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.0 bp at 3.758%.
ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, "There's still more risk inflation will be higher over the medium term than we expect," and the ECB "will almost surely need to wait until December for a clearer picture before making its next move" on interest rates.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 31% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Apple is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after TF International said demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weak, with first-weekend pre-order sales of about 37 million units, down about -12.7% y/y from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales. Apple suppliers are falling as well, with Qorvo down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Skyworks Solutions is down more than -6%.
Chip makers are under pressure today and are weighing on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Micron Technology is down more than -4%, and Broadcom is down more than -3%. In addition, KLA Corp , Lam Research , and ASML Holding NV are down more than -2%. Finally, Nvidia , Marvell Technology , GlobalFoundries , Applied Materials , Microchip Technology , and Texas Instruments are down more than -1%.
Intel is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Oracle is up more than +4% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $210.
Charles Schwab is up more than +3% after it reported new brokerage account in August rose +4% y/y to 324,000 and that it expects Q3 revenue will climb as much as 3% from Q2.
Elf Beauty is down more than -3% after Piper Sandler cut its price target on the stock to $162 from $260.
MKS Instruments is down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Nova Ltd is down more than -5% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Yelp Inc is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underperform with a price target of $30.
Exact Sciences is up more than +5% after releasing data from a study of its blood-based colon cancer screening that showed sensitivities of 88% for colorectal cancer and 31% for advanced precancerous lesions at 90% specificity.
Nuvalent is up more than +23% after presenting updated data from two early-stage trials of its lead cancer programs that impressed analysts.
Builders FirstSource is up more than +3% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $220.
Zillow is up more than +4% after Wedbush upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $80.
Earnings Reports (9/16/2024)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Silver Is The New AI Play
Please click here for an enlarged chart of silver ETF iShares Silver Trust .
Note the following:
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc , Amazon.com, Inc. , and Alphabet Inc Class C .
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Microsoft Corp , NVIDIA Corp , and Tesla Inc .
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 .
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust . The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV. The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF .
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is seeing light selling.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a well-known political figure from Georgia, has made headlines for more than just her political stances. Greene's stock trading activity has caught attention for its volume and timing, with her latest regulatory filings showing investments of approximately $112,000 in a variety of companies. Her recent activity continues a trend of significant investments she has been making throughout 2024.
The Latest Stock Trades: Building on Her Tech-Focused Strategy
In her most recent filing on September 4, 2024, Greene disclosed new stock purchases in companies such as Amazon , Digital Realty Trust , Palo Alto Networks , and FedEx , adding to her already tech-heavy portfolio. This follows earlier purchases disclosed in August, when she added stocks like Alphabet , Intel , Nvidia , and Kinder Morgan . The tech-centric nature of her investments signals her confidence in the continued growth of AI and cybersecurity sectors despite recent market volatility.
Greene's Investment History: Tech Dominates, But Results Vary
Greene's stock trading journey has been filled with aggressive moves, particularly in the technology space. Earlier in 2024, she made notable purchases in Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia. This tech-focused strategy has concentrated her portfolio with some of the most innovative and high-growth sectors in the market.
Although Greene holds some of the top tech stocks, her stock returns have been mixed. She faced a major setback when CrowdStrike stock dropped 30% after a significant outage. This was just days after she purchased stocks of the company. Similarly, her Intel investment, which came after the company's stock suffered a significant decline, has not yet paid off, with shares dropping 9% since her purchase. Furthermore, Dell has declined by 13% since her purchase in July.
Following in Pelosi's Footsteps?
Greene's aggressive stock trading has drawn comparisons to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is widely known for her success in the stock market. Greene may be mirroring Pelosi's trading strategy, buying into some of the same high-profile names. Greene has recently added stocks favored by Pelosi, such as Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks. While some of her trades reflect Pelosi's strategy, Greene has been more concentrated in technology investments, compared to Pelosi.
Two other congressman, John James and Peter Sessions, also announced trades in Nvidia and other chip and cybersecurity plays.
With her continued stock trading activity, Greene, like many other politicians, has been subject to scrutiny. As in the case of other lawmakers, questions about potential access to insider information often arise when politicians engage in substantial stock trading.
Conclusion: Should Investors Follow Greene's Strategy?
Marjorie Taylor Greene's recent stock picks illustrate her confidence in the future of AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. While these sectors hold strong growth potential, they also come with heightened risk, especially in a market currently experiencing volatility.
For investors looking to emulate Greene's strategy, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and consider their own risk tolerance. While high-profile politicians like Greene may have access to expert advice, following their trades without due diligence can be extremely risky.
On the date of publication, Caleb Naysmith did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Sept 16 (Reuters) - Teamsters:
TEAMSTERS: AMAZON DRIVERS IN QUEENS, NEW YORK JOIN TEAMSTERS UNION
Further company coverage: AMZN.O
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. , headquartered in Kirkland, Washington, designs, develops, markets, and sells semiconductor-based power electronics solutions for the storage and computing, automotive, enterprise data, consumer, communications, and industrial markets. With a market cap of $44.5 billion, the company offers power management IC, isolated gate drivers, power modules, battery and chargers, load switches, inductors, analog input devices, sensors, motor drivers and controllers, and electronic components.
Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and MPWR perfectly fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this mark, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the semiconductors industry. MPWR’s fabless manufacturing model enables a focus on semiconductor design while minimizing capital expenditures and fixed costs by partnering with third-party foundries. This approach has strengthened its balance sheet, allowing for significant cash reserves and manageable debt levels, providing financial stability to invest in R&D and growth opportunities.
Despite its notable strength, MPWR slipped 4.7% from its 52-week high of $959.64, achieved on Aug. 29. Over the past three months, MPWR stock has gained 11.9%, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s ($NASX) marginal gains during the same time frame.
In the longer term, shares of MPWR rose 44.9% on a YTD basis and climbed 94.3% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming NASX’s YTD gains of 17.8% and solid 28% returns over the last year.
MPWR has recently been trading above its 50-day moving average and over its 200-day moving average since November 2023, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
MPWR has outperformed the market this year thanks to strong revenue growth driven by demand for AI-related data center solutions, offsetting weaker performance in other areas. The company is strategically positioned in AI data centers, poised to benefit as enterprises upgrade their cloud infrastructure. With innovative power management technologies and partnerships, including one with NVIDIA Corporation to enhance AI capabilities, the company is well-positioned for growth in the semiconductor industry.
On Aug. 1, MPWR shares closed down more than 9% after reporting its Q2 results. Its adjusted EPS of $3.17 beat Wall Street expectations of $3.07. The company’s revenue was $507.4 million, exceeding Wall Street forecasts of $489.9 million.
Highlighting the contrast in performance, MPWR’s rival, ON Semiconductor Corporation , has had a rough ride. ON's shares plummeted 14.1% in 2024 alone and 25.9% over the past 52 weeks.
Wall Street analysts are highly bullish on MPWR’s prospects. The stock has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating from the 12 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $951.30 suggests a potential upside of 4.1% from current price levels.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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