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Carnival Corp. shares are trading higher Wednesday, and the stock is up more than 10% over the past five days. The stock may be continuing to gain after JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss said cruise stocks are sailing into 2025 with a strong setup backed by rising demand and pricing power.
Heading into its third-quarter earnings release, the JPMorgan analyst expects Carnival to benefit from the continued surge in demand, particularly in Europe and Alaska.
“Zero signs of softening in any lead indicator,” said Boss after attending the Endless Summer Forum in Miami.
Read Next: NVIDIA, Salesforce Announce Strategic AI Collaboration: What To Know
Carnival is set to report its third-quarter financial results on Sept. 30 before the opening bell and will host a conference call to discuss the results at 10 a.m. ET the same day. According to estimates from Benzinga Pro, analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $1.15 per share and revenue of $7.816 billion.
CCL Stock Prediction 2024:
Equity research analysts on and off Wall Street typically use earnings growth and fundamental research as a form of valuation and forecasting. But many in trading turn to technical analysis as a way to form predictive models for share price trajectory.
Some investors look to trends to help forecast where they believe a stock could trade at a certain point in the future. Looking at Carnival, an investor could make an assessment about a stock's long term prospects using a moving average and trend line. If they believe a stock will remain above the moving average, which many believe is a bullish signal, they can extrapolate that trend into the future using a trend line. For Carnival, the 200-day moving average sits at $16.31, according to Benzinga Pro, which is below the current price of $18.39. For more on charts and trend lines, see a description here.
Traders believe that when a stock is above its moving average, it is a generally bullish signal, and when it crosses below, it is a more negative signal. Investors could use trend lines to make an educated guess about where a stock could trade at a later date if conditions remain stable.
CCL Price Action: According to Benzinga Pro, Carnival shares are up 1.83% at $18.36 at the time of publication Wednesday.
Read Also:
Image: Ed Junkins from Pixabay
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The S&P 500 Index today is up by +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down by -0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.11%.
Stocks today are slightly higher ahead of the FOMC’s decision on interest rates this afternoon. Today’s reports showed US housing starts and building permits for August were better than expected, bolstering the prospects for a soft landing and boosting stocks.
The markets will look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that concludes this afternoon to see whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum or whether they will decide on a larger -50 bp rate cut instead. Also, fresh quarterly projections in the form of the Fed’s “dot plot” will offer further insight into the path of interest rates and the economy. In addition, today’s post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell will be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions.
US MBA mortgage applications rose +14.2% in the week ended September 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising +5.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index rising +24.2%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -14 bp to a 2-year low of 6.15% from 6.29% in the prior week.
US Aug housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356 million, stronger than expectations of 1.318 million. Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475 million, stronger than expectations of 1.410 million.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting and at 66% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.36%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 7-1/4 month low and closed up +0.49%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.49%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are down -9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.8 bp at 3.683%. Dec T-notes today are moderately lower on negative carryover from a slide in European government bonds to 1-week lows. Also, position squaring and long liquidation are weighing on T-notes ahead of this afternoon’s decision by the FOMC on interest rates. T-notes extended their losses after US Aug housing starts and building permits rose more than expected.
European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-week high of 2.185% and is up +4.1 bp at 2.184%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.837% and is up +6.8 bp to 3.836%.
ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said, "The ECB has cut interest rates twice and should continue to cut them," as victory over inflation is "within sight."
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 32% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Super Micro Computer is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Needham & Co. initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy with a price target of $600.
Cruise line operators are climbing today, with Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings up more than +2% and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd up more than +1%.
VF Corp is up more than +5% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $22.
Victoria’s Secret & Co is up more than +5% after Barclays upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight.
United States Steel is up more than +1% after a US security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to purchase the company for $14.1 billion.
GE Healthcare is up more than +1% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $100.
ResMed is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to underperform from peer perform with a price target of $180.
Cencora is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Incyte Corp is down more than -2% after Truist Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
DaVita is down more than -2% on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed CEO Rodriguez sold $9.86 million of shares on Monday.
Edwards Lifesciences is down nearly -1% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
Hilton Grand Vacations is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $31.
Earnings Reports (9/18/2024)
Ennis Inc (EBF), General Mills Inc (GIS), Steelcase Inc (SCS).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Carnival?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Carnival (CCL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.19 a share, just 12 days from its upcoming earnings release on September 30, 2024.
CCL has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.99%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.19 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15. Carnival is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CCL is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Las Vegas Sands (LVS) as well.
Las Vegas Sands is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 16, 2024. LVS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.58 a share 28 days from its next earnings release.
For Las Vegas Sands, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.55 is +4.57%.
CCL and LVS' positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
Carnival (CCL) closed the latest trading day at $18.03, indicating a +1.12% change from the previous session's end. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.04%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.2%.
Coming into today, shares of the cruise operator had gained 14.3% in the past month. In that same time, the Consumer Discretionary sector gained 2.35%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.54%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Carnival in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on September 30, 2024. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $1.15, indicating a 33.72% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.8 billion, up 13.73% from the prior-year quarter.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Carnival. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the company's business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. Carnival is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Investors should also note Carnival's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 15.04. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 18.35, which means Carnival is trading at a discount to the group.
The Leisure and Recreation Services industry is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 158, positioning it in the bottom 38% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
Cruise stocks are cruising in the fast lane, and according to analysts, the seas ahead look crystal clear. Royal Caribbean Group , Carnival Corp , and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd are poised for a strong setup in 2025, backed by rising demand and pricing power, according to JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss.
‘Zero Signs’ Of Demand Softening For Cruise Lines
"Zero signs of softening in any lead indicator," said Boss after attending the Endless Summer Forum in Miami. That includes everything from booking curves to onboard spending – with Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line’s management confirming the industry's sturdy footing.
With nearly half of 2025's capacity already booked, cruises are setting sail much earlier than usual, extending bookings as far as 2027.
Royal Caribbean ‘In A Very Good Spot’
RCL is leading the charge. CFO Naftali Holtz stated, “We're in a very good spot,” citing how 70% of passengers make pre-cruise purchases, which translates to a significant onboard spending boost. The company is banking on long-term drivers, including the arrival of new ships like “Utopia of the Seas” and “Star of the Seas” to fuel further growth.
Carnival Prepares For Q3 Earnings
Meanwhile, Carnival is ready to ride the wave, with its third quarter earnings expected to get a lift from the continued surge in demand, particularly in Europe and Alaska.
The company remains optimistic about maintaining its pricing power, which remains about 25% lower than land-based alternatives – a strong selling point for thrifty travelers.
Norwegian’s Management Is ‘Very Confident’
Norwegian Cruise Line remains neutral in JPMorgan’s outlook but sees clear skies ahead. Management expressed "very confident" expectations of hitting a $300 million cost savings target, driven by initiatives such as optimizing fuel use and streamlining menus—all while keeping passengers satisfied.
Read Also: Norwegian Cruise Line Sails Into Troubled Waters As Financial Struggles, Bearish Trends Persist
As Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings navigate the post-pandemic recovery, each is showing unique strengths.
Royal Caribbean’s focus on new ship launches and immersive experiences, Carnival's strong booking trends and cost-efficiency strategies, and Norwegian's premium offerings suggest that all three are well-positioned to benefit from increasing consumer demand. The cruise industry, with its multi-generational appeal and rising demand, seems to be taking a larger slice of the $1.9 trillion global vacation pie.
However, challenges such as inflationary pressures and rising operational costs could impact profitability. Investors will need to weigh these factors as they consider which cruise line is best positioned to capitalize on the industry’s recovery and continue gaining market share.
Read Next:
Image via Unsplash
Latest Ratings for CCL
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2022 | Jefferies | Initiates Coverage On | Hold | |
Dec 2021 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | |
Dec 2021 | Credit Suisse | Maintains | Outperform |
View More Analyst Ratings for CCL
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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