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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider United Airlines?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. United Airlines (UAL) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.25 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 15, 2024.
United Airlines' Earnings ESP sits at +6.73%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.25 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.05. UAL is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
UAL is part of a big group of Transportation stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Alaska Air Group (ALK) as well.
Alaska Air Group is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 17, 2024. ALK's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.90 a share 31 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air Group is $1.64, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +15.78%.
UAL and ALK's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Zacks Investment Research
Designed to provide broad exposure to the Industrials - Transportation/Shipping segment of the equity market, the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 04/30/2015.
Retail and institutional investors increasingly turn to passively managed ETFs because they offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; these kind of funds are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.
Additionally, sector ETFs offer convenient ways to gain low risk and diversified exposure to a broad group of companies in particular sectors. Industrials - Transportation/Shipping is one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification. It is currently ranked 14, placing it in bottom 13%.
Index Details
The fund is sponsored by U.S. Global Investors. It has amassed assets over $1 billion, making it one of the average sized ETFs attempting to match the performance of the Industrials - Transportation/Shipping segment of the equity market. JETS seeks to match the performance of the U.S. Global Jets Index before fees and expenses.
The U.S. Global Jets Index tracks the performance of Airline Companies across the globe with an emphasis on domestic passenger airlines.
Costs
Investors should also pay attention to an ETF's expense ratio. Lower cost products will produce better results than those with a higher cost, assuming all other metrics remain the same.
Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.60%, making it on par with most peer products in the space.
Sector Exposure and Top Holdings
It is important to delve into an ETF's holdings before investing despite the many upsides to these kinds of funds like diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk. And, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.
Looking at individual holdings, Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) accounts for about 10.48% of total assets, followed by American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL).
The top 10 holdings account for about 56.12% of total assets under management.
Performance and Risk
The ETF has added roughly 1.31% and it's up approximately 7.65% so far this year and in the past one year (as of 09/16/2024), respectively. JETS has traded between $14.74 and $21.18 during this last 52-week period.
The ETF has a beta of 1.43 and standard deviation of 31% for the trailing three-year period, making it a high risk choice in the space. With about 57 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.
Alternatives
U.S. Global Jets ETF holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Because of this, JETS is a great option for investors seeking exposure to the Industrials ETFs segment of the market. There are other additional ETFs in the space that investors could consider as well.
SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) tracks S&P Transportation Select Industry Index and the iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) tracks Dow Jones Transportation Average Index. SPDR S&P Transportation ETF has $199.54 million in assets, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF has $613.82 million. XTN has an expense ratio of 0.35% and IYT charges 0.40%.
Bottom Line
To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.
Zacks Investment Research
Adds further details from ALPA statement in paragraph 6-7
By Gnaneshwar Rajan
Sept 15 (Reuters) - Air Canada AC.TO said early on Sunday it had reached a tentative agreement with its pilots union over a new four-year collective agreement, in a last-minute deal that will avert a near-term strike or lockout.
Before the tentative agreement was reached, Canada's largest airline had been preparing to progressively cancel flights over three days and to completely shut down its operations as early as 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Wednesday, Sept. 18.
Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, which operate nearly 670 flights per day carrying about 110,000 daily passengers as well as freight, will now continue flying as normal, the airline said.
Air Canada said in a statement the terms of its new agreement with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) representing more than 5,200 pilots will remain confidential, pending a ratification vote by its members expected to be completed over the next month.
The ALPA said deal would mean an additional C$1.9 billion ($1.40 billion) in value for members over its four-year term, representing a 46% increase over the old contract that expired in September 2023.
"After several consecutive weeks of intense round-the-clock negotiations, progress was made on several key issues including compensation, retirement, and work rules," said First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA master executive council.
The two sides have been negotiating a new contract for the past 15 months, with the pilots demanding wage rates that would narrow the pay gap with their counterparts at major U.S. carriers such as United Airlines UAL.O.
Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon said in a post on X that travel disruptions for Canadians were prevented thanks to the hard work of the parties and federal mediators.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday the Canadian government would not intervene to end the dispute like it did last month within 24 hours to end a strike at the two largest rail companies, Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP.TO and Canadian National Railway CNR.TO.
Air Canada had earlier offered a wage increase of more than 30%, as well as improved pension and health benefits. But the union said the proposal was not good enough for their members who have been working under pay rates and quality-of-life provisions negotiated in 2014.
Pilots at U.S. airlines have negotiated hefty pay raises in new contracts in the past two years amid a travel boom and staffing shortages. United's new pilot contract, for example, included pay increases of about 42%.
As a result, some United pilots now earn 92% more than their counterparts at Air Canada, the pilots' association's data shows. In 2013, the pay gap was just 3%.
($1 = 1.3585 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh in Chicago; Editing by Jamie Freed)
(( Gnaneshwar.Rajan@thomsonreuters.com ;))
Keywords: AIR CANADA-LABOR/ (UPDATE 3, PIX)
Consumer stocks rose late Friday afternoon with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) increasing 0.5% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) adding 0.6%.
In corporate news, Azul shares surged 29%. The company is close to finalizing a deal with lessors to restructure about $600 million in debt, offering them equity in the company, Reuters reported Friday.
Xenia Hotels & Resorts shares rose 3.3% as Wells Fargo upgraded its rating on the company to overweight from equalweight, with a price target of $15.
RH shares surged jumped 25%. The company recorded better-than-expected fiscal Q2 results amid higher demand that is projected to accelerate through this year and into next.
United Airlines shares added 1% after it said Friday it signed a deal with SpaceX to equip its planes with Starlink's Wi-Fi service.
Consumer stocks rose Friday afternoon with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) increasing 0.7% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) adding 0.9%.
In corporate news, RH shares surged nearly 25%. The company recorded better-than-expected fiscal Q2 results amid higher demand that is projected to accelerate through this year and into next.
United Airlines shares added 2% after it said Friday it signed a deal with SpaceX to equip its planes with Starlink's Wi-Fi service.
Advance Auto Parts faces significant near- and longer-term hurdles even as the company's new leadership demonstrates a "strategic focus and energy," Oppenheimer said after a meeting with senior executives Thursday. Advance Auto shares were rising 4%.
Shares of Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) have not had a good time on the bourses of late, declining in double-digits year to date. The disappointing price performance resulted in CPA underperforming its industry in the said time frame. Additionally, CPA’s price performance compares unfavorably with that of fellow U.S. airline operators United Airlines UAL and Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK in the same time frame.
YTD Price Comparison
Given the significant pullback in CPA’s shares currently, investors might be tempted to snap up the stock. But is this the right time to buy CPA? Let’s find out.
Factors Weighing on CPA Stock
Copa Holdings is currently mired in multiple headwinds, which, we believe, have led to its unimpressive price performance.
Escalating operating expenses are hurting Copa Holdings’ bottom line. In the first half of 2024, total operating expenses increased 3.8% year over year, owing to higher capacity. Expenses on wages, salaries and benefits rose 10% year over year in first-half 2024 due to an increase in operational staff to support current capacity and cost of living salary adjustments. High fuel costs (up 2.4% in first-half 2024) are pushing up operating costs as well.
The Cargo segment’s performance is disappointing. In 2023, cargo and mail revenues declined 4.6% year over year due to lower cargo volumes and yields. In first-half 2024, cargo and mail revenues fell 0.2% year over year due to lower cargo yields.
A decline in passenger yield is a concern as it results in reduced unit revenues. Passenger yield declined 6.3% year over year in first-half 2024, leading to a 6.1% reduction in total revenue per available seat miles (a measure of unit revenues). This decrease was due to a revision of the unredeemed ticket revenue provision for tickets sold so far in the current year.
Given the headwinds surrounding the stock, earnings estimates have been southbound, as shown below.
Upbeat Air Travel Demand: A Major Tailwind
Upbeat air travel demand has been aiding Copa Holdings' revenues. As a reflection of this, in 2023, total operating revenues increased 16.7% year over year, driven by a 17.5% uptick in passenger revenues. With more people taking to the skies in the post-pandemic scenario, CPA's passenger revenues (which accounted for most of the top line) increased 2% in first-half 2024 despite low yield. Driven by high passenger traffic, management expects the current-year load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) to be 86.5%.
From a valuation perspective, CPA is trading at a discount compared to the industry, going by its forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio. The reading is also below its median over the last five years. The company has a Value Score of A.
To Conclude
It is understood that CPA stock is attractively valued and upbeat passenger revenues are contributing to CPA’s top line. However, given the abovementioned headwinds, we believe that it is not at all advisable to buy the dip in this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock until the company demonstrates substantial improvement in its performance.
We believe investors should monitor the company’s developments closely for an appropriate entry point. For those who already own the stock, it will be prudent to stay invested. The stock’s Zacks Rank supports our thesis.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
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