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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Franco-Nevada (FNV). Shares have added about 3.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Franco-Nevada due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Franco-Nevada Q2 Earnings Miss, Revenues Decline Y/Y
Franco-Nevada reported adjusted earnings of 75 cents per share in second-quarter 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. The bottom line decreased 21% year over year.
The company generated revenues of $260 million in the reported quarter, down 21.2% year over year. The downside was driven by lower contributions from Antapaccay, Candelaria and Energy assets, partially offset by record gold prices. In the June-end quarter, 74.2% of revenues were sourced from Precious Metal assets (60.3% gold, 10.8% silver and 3.1% platinum group metals).
The company sold 82,350 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) from precious metal assets in the reported quarter, down from the prior-year quarter’s 132,033 GEOs.
In the reported quarter, adjusted EBITDA was down 19.5% year over year to $222 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 85.3% in the quarter under review compared with the prior-year quarter’s 83.5%.
Financial Position
The company had $1.44 billion cash in hand at the end of the second quarter of 2024, up from $1.42 billion as of the end of 2023. It recorded an operating cash flow of $373 million in the first half of 2024, down from $472 million in the prior-year period.
Franco-Nevada is debt-free and uses its free cash flow to expand its portfolio and pay out dividends. FNV now has an available capital of $2.4 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Franco-Nevada has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Franco-Nevada has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Franco-Nevada belongs to the Zacks Mining - Gold industry. Another stock from the same industry, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), has gained 1.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.
Agnico reported revenues of $2.08 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +20.9%. EPS of $1.07 for the same period compares with $0.65 a year ago.
Agnico is expected to post earnings of $0.90 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +104.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.5%.
Agnico has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
Zacks Investment Research
The most recent trading session ended with Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) standing at $79.10, reflecting a +0.24% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.07%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.31%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 2.17%.
Heading into today, shares of the gold mining company had gained 1.81% over the past month, outpacing the Basic Materials sector's loss of 0.59% and lagging the S&P 500's gain of 2.92% in that time.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Agnico Eagle Mines in its upcoming earnings disclosure. On that day, Agnico Eagle Mines is projected to report earnings of $0.90 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 104.55%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $1.83 billion, up 11.17% from the prior-year quarter.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $3.65 per share and a revenue of $7.9 billion, indicating changes of +63.68% and +19.23%, respectively, from the former year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Agnico Eagle Mines should also be noted by investors. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. Agnico Eagle Mines currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Digging into valuation, Agnico Eagle Mines currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 21.65. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 15.77, so one might conclude that Agnico Eagle Mines is trading at a premium comparatively.
One should further note that AEM currently holds a PEG ratio of 0.77. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. Mining - Gold stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.77 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Mining - Gold industry is part of the Basic Materials sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 94, which puts it in the top 38% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.
Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Value investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
What if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only as a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
Toronto, Canada-based Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland, and exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. It successfully completed its merger with Kirkland Lake Gold in February 2022.
AEM is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of B thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 21.33; value investors should take notice.
Six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.31 to $3.65 per share. AEM boasts an average earnings surprise of 15.7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, AEM should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Newmont Corporation’s NEM shares have rallied 24.8% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 12.4%. Forecast-topping earnings performance in the second quarter on the back of higher selling prices and production, along with a surge in gold prices, has contributed to the run-up in NEM’s shares.
The stock is currently trading at a roughly 6% discount to its 52-week high of $53.88, reached on Aug. 30, 2024.
Technical indicators show that NEM has been unremittingly trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 23, 2024. After a series of ebbs and flows, the stock broke the 50-day SMA on July 3, 2024. Following a golden crossover on May 13, 2024, the 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day moving average, manifesting a bullish trend, with the 200-day SMA acting as the support level.
Newmont's Shares Trade Above 50-Day SMA
Is the time right to buy NEM’s shares for potential upside? Let’s take a look at the stock’s fundamentals.
NEM Stock Well Poised on Key Projects & Newcrest Buyout
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and Cadia Block Caves in Australia. These projects should expand production capacity and extend mine life, thereby driving revenues and profits.
The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has also created an industry-leading portfolio with a multi-decade gold and copper production profile in the most favorable mining jurisdictions globally. The combination of Newmont and Newcrest is expected to deliver significant value for shareholders and generate meaningful synergies, with $500 million in total annual pre-tax benefits expected by the end of 2025. NEM also remains on track to meet its 2024 gold production target of around 6.9 million ounces with solid performances of its managed Tier 1 assets and contributions of the sites acquired from the Newcrest buyout.
Solid Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the second quarter of 2024, Newmont had liquidity of $6.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $2.6 billion. Its operating cash flow more than doubled year over year to around $1.4 billion. NEM also generated $594 million in free cash flow and returned roughly $539 million to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the quarter.
As a leading gold producer, Newmont also stands to benefit significantly from the record-setting upswing in gold prices, which should boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation. Gold prices are hitting record highs this year, and the yellow metal has been among the best-performing assets.
Prices skyrocketed to surpass the $2,500 per ounce level for the first time on Aug. 2, 2024, as ebbing inflation raised hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut in September. Increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns over an economic slowdown also fueled safe-haven demand. Prices rallied to a record high of $2,531.70 per ounce on Aug. 20, 2024, on growing Fed rate cut expectations.
NEM offers a healthy dividend yield of 2% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 47% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 15.5%. Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
NEM’s Higher Production Costs A Concern
Newmont is being challenged by higher production costs, which will likely weigh on its margins over the near term. Its gold costs applicable to sales rose roughly 13% year over year in 2023. Newmont also saw a 19% surge in all-in-sustaining costs — the most important cost metric of miners. Both cost metrics increased year over year in the second quarter of 2024. The impacts of increased direct operating costs are leading to cost inflation. Higher materials, labor and contract services costs, despite easing somewhat lately, remain as concerns.
Newmont’s Earnings Estimates Going Up
Earnings estimates for NEM have been going up over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 have been revised upward over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is currently pegged at $2.82, reflecting an expected year-over-year growth of 75.2%. Earnings are expected to register a roughly 20.6% growth in 2025. NEM has a long-term EPS growth rate of 48.5% versus 28.1% for its industry.
NEM’s Valuation: A Bit Stretched But Reasonable
Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.74X, a roughly 4.9% premium to the industry average of 15X. The valuation looks reasonable, considering the company’s healthy earnings trajectory.
Newmont Outperforms S&P 500
Thanks to the rally in gold prices, NEM’s shares have racked up a gain of 22.6% year to date, underperforming the industry’s 24% rise but topping the S&P 500’s rise of 13.3%. Its gold mining peers, Barrick Gold Corporation GOLD, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM and Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, have gained 6.6%, 41.8% and 40.8%, respectively, over the same period.
NEM's YTD Price Performance
How Should Investors Play the NEM Stock?
NEM presents an attractive investment case backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, solid financial health and bullish technicals. Other positives include a healthy growth trajectory, rising earnings estimates and an attractive dividend yield. Rallying gold prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. Despite the upbeat growth prospects, its high production costs warrant caution. Holding onto this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Agnico Eagle Mines . Shares have added about 7.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Agnico due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Agnico Eagle's Q2 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates
Agnico Eagle reported adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share in the second quarter of 2024, up from 65 cents in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 93 cents.
The company generated revenues of $2,076.6 million, up nearly 21% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,719 million.
Operational Highlights
Payable gold production was 895,838 ounces in the reported quarter, up from 873,204 ounces in the prior-year quarter. The figure surpassed our estimate of 843,693 ounces.
Total cash costs per ounce for gold were $870, up from $840 a year ago. It was lower than our estimate of $878.
Realized gold prices were $2,342 per ounce in the quarter, up from $1,975 a year ago. It was above our estimate of $2,021.
All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) were $1,169 per ounce in the quarter compared with $1,150 per ounce a year ago. It was lower than our estimate of $1,193.
Financial Position
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $922 million, up 113% year over year. Long-term debt was around $1,101.7 million, down 46.7% year over year.
Total cash from operating activities amounted to $961.3 million in the second quarter, up from $722 million a year ago.
Outlook
In 2024, the company anticipates producing 3.35-3.55 million ounces of gold. The company projects total cash costs per ounce in the range of $875-$925 and AISC per ounce to be between $1,200 and $1,250. Excluding capitalized exploration, capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to be between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 12.03% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Agnico has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Agnico has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Agnico belongs to the Zacks Mining - Gold industry. Another stock from the same industry, Newmont Corporation , has gained 7.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.
Newmont reported revenues of $4.4 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +64.1%. EPS of $0.72 for the same period compares with $0.33 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Newmont is expected to post earnings of $0.71 per share, indicating a change of +97.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +4% over the last 30 days.
Newmont has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
Zacks Investment Research
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