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If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider KB Home (KBH). This company, which is in the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.
This homebuilder has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 16.80%.
For the most recent quarter, KB Home was expected to post earnings of $1.78 per share, but it reported $2.15 per share instead, representing a surprise of 20.79%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1.56 per share, while it actually produced $1.76 per share, a surprise of 12.82%.
With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for KB Home. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
KB Home has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on September 24, 2024.
When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Zacks Investment Research
In the latest trading session, KB Home (KBH) closed at $86.75, marking a +0.39% move from the previous day. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.04%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.2%.
The homebuilder's shares have seen an increase of 6.27% over the last month, surpassing the Construction sector's gain of 5.35% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.54%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of KB Home in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on September 24, 2024. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $2.04, reflecting a 13.33% increase from the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $1.73 billion, up 8.88% from the prior-year quarter.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $8.38 per share and revenue of $6.84 billion. These totals would mark changes of +19.2% and +6.68%, respectively, from last year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for KB Home. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Right now, KB Home possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Digging into valuation, KB Home currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.31. This expresses a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 10.34 of its industry.
It is also worth noting that KBH currently has a PEG ratio of 0.87. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Building Products - Home Builders industry stood at 1.02 at the close of the market yesterday.
The Building Products - Home Builders industry is part of the Construction sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 42, this industry ranks in the top 17% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Zacks Investment Research
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Considering these trends, value investing is clearly one of the most preferred ways to find strong stocks in any type of market. Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are being undervalued by the market at large.
Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today.
KB Home (KBH) is a stock many investors are watching right now. KBH is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.27 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 11.80. Over the past year, KBH's Forward P/E has been as high as 9.80 and as low as 5.72, with a median of 8.19.
Investors should also note that KBH holds a PEG ratio of 0.78. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. KBH's industry currently sports an average PEG of 0.91. KBH's PEG has been as high as 1.04 and as low as 0.64, with a median of 0.76, all within the past year.
Another notable valuation metric for KBH is its P/B ratio of 1.55. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This company's current P/B looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/B of 1.97. Within the past 52 weeks, KBH's P/B has been as high as 1.64 and as low as 0.88, with a median of 1.29.
Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. KBH has a P/S ratio of 1. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 1.13.
Finally, investors should note that KBH has a P/CF ratio of 9.87. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook. KBH's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 10.92. Within the past 12 months, KBH's P/CF has been as high as 10.34 and as low as 5.04, with a median of 8.02.
These are only a few of the key metrics included in KB Home's strong Value grade, but they help show that the stock is likely undervalued right now. When factoring in the strength of its earnings outlook, KBH looks like an impressive value stock at the moment.
Zacks Investment Research
Have you been paying attention to shares of PulteGroup (PHM)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 13.8% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $140.77 in the previous session. PulteGroup has gained 35.2% since the start of the year compared to the 19.1% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 28.4% return for the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on July 23, 2024, PulteGroup reported EPS of $3.58 versus consensus estimate of $3.21 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 2.72%.
For the current fiscal year, PulteGroup is expected to post earnings of $13.36 per share on $17.43 billion in revenues. This represents a 13.99% change in EPS on an 8.49% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $13.58 per share on $18.35 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 1.65% and 5.29%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
PulteGroup may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
PulteGroup has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 10.4X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 10.3X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 11X versus its peer group's average of 10.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.55. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, PulteGroup currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if PulteGroup passes the test. Thus, it seems as though PulteGroup shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.
How Does PHM Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of PHM have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is KB Home (KBH). KBH has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of F.
Earnings were strong last quarter. KB Home beat our consensus estimate by 20.79%, and for the current fiscal year, KBH is expected to post earnings of $8.38 per share on revenue of $6.84 billion.
Shares of KB Home have gained 8.5% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 10.26X and a P/CF of 10.83X.
The Building Products - Home Builders industry is in the top 10% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for PHM and KBH, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
Zacks Investment Research
KB Home (KBH) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this homebuilder have returned +2.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.9% change. During this period, the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, which KB Home falls in, has gained 8.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, KB Home is expected to post earnings of $2.04 per share, indicating a change of +13.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.38 points to a change of +19.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.99 indicates a change of +7.2% from what KB Home is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for KB Home.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For KB Home, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $1.73 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +8.9%. For the current and next fiscal years, $6.84 billion and $7.41 billion estimates indicate +6.7% and +8.3% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
KB Home reported revenues of $1.71 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -3.1%. EPS of $2.15 for the same period compares with $1.94 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.64 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.33%. The EPS surprise was +20.79%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
KB Home is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about KB Home. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
The latest trading session saw KB Home (KBH) ending at $79.71, denoting a -0.98% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 1.07% for the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.31%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 2.17%.
Heading into today, shares of the homebuilder had gained 0.12% over the past month, lagging the Construction sector's gain of 2.28% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.92% in that time.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of KB Home in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on September 24, 2024. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $2.04, indicating a 13.33% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $1.73 billion, indicating an 8.88% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $8.38 per share and revenue of $6.84 billion, indicating changes of +19.2% and +6.68%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for KB Home. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the company's business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. At present, KB Home boasts a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
In the context of valuation, KB Home is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 9.6. This signifies no noticeable deviation in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 9.6 for its industry.
Also, we should mention that KBH has a PEG ratio of 0.81. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. The Building Products - Home Builders industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 0.96 as of yesterday's close.
The Building Products - Home Builders industry is part of the Construction sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 27, placing it within the top 11% of over 250 industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
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