Accelerating Higher After Breaking Key Resistance

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have had an impact on oil prices, but natural gas prices are more sensitive to these developments. Additionally, cold weather is driving increased demand for energy in the market.

BUY NAT.GAS

EXP

TRADING

3.578

Entry Price

4.960

2.909

3.388 -0.116 -3.31%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2.909

Exit Price

3.578

Entry Price

4.960

Fundamentals

Natural gas prices have surged by approximately 15% since early November, hitting a 2024 high of $3.540/MMBtu this week.

Forecasts suggest colder weather in the US, and increased heating demand is driving prices higher. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected on November 13 that natural gas prices might peak in January 2025. Utility companies are injecting gas into storage at a faster-than-expected pace, signaling sufficient inventory to meet rising demand during the cold season.

Additionally, the intensifying geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine continues to bolster energy prices. Ukraine launched US-made missiles at Russia and reportedly followed up with British-made missiles earlier this week. Market risks hinge on whether Ukraine targets Russia's energy infrastructure and the uncertainty surrounding Russia's potential retaliation to these attacks.

The EU, the second-largest natural gas consumer, remains vulnerable to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The TTF benchmark closed up nearly 2.5% yesterday, driven by geopolitical risk and Gazprom's suspension of natural gas supply to OMV. Markets are also closely monitoring Russian pipeline flows to Europe, which have remained stable through Ukraine so far. Meanwhile, European natural gas storage has fallen below 90%, slightly under the five-year average of 91% for this time of year.

Accelerating Higher After Breaking Key Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices have recently surged, breaking above the June high of $3.200 and testing the November 2022 high at $3.724.

The breakout above the multi-month resistance level of $3.150 has marked a reversal of the downtrend that began in May and led to a strong rally.

Given the clear daily uptrend, prices are expected to rise toward the next resistance at $3.750, the primary target of a butterfly harmonic pattern. Further gains could see a test of the D point at $3.957.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3.375

Target Price: 4.960

Stop Loss: 2.909

Valid Until: Dec 6, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 3.200, 2.953, 2.677

Resistance: 3.709, 3.957, 4.262

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $97,000, fueled by optimism over potential regulatory changes under Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

97500.0

Entry Price

110000.0

92000.0

97806.3 +1146.4 +1.19%

1095.5

Pips

Profit

92000.0

98595.5

Exit Price

97500.0

Entry Price

110000.0

Bitcoin (BTC) has achieved another milestone, skyrocketing to $97,000 on Thursday, setting a fresh all-time high. The digital asset is edging closer to the psychologically significant $100,000 threshold, a level once deemed speculative but now increasingly plausible. Market sentiment appears driven by a convergence of factors, including regulatory optimism tied to Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House, increased institutional interest, and broader adoption on a global scale.

The cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with optimism as Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric gains traction. Throughout his campaign, Trump vowed to transform the United States into the "crypto capital of the planet." His proposals include fostering innovation in the blockchain sector and accumulating a national Bitcoin reserve to position the U.S. as a leader in the global financial ecosystem.

Such promises are already showing tangible market effects. Since the election results, U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows exceeding $4 billion, underscoring renewed investor confidence. For comparison, these inflows dwarf those witnessed during Bitcoin's previous rally in late 2021. This momentum reflects growing anticipation that a pro-crypto administration could provide regulatory clarity, thereby reducing compliance risks for both institutional and retail investors.

Adding to the bullish narrative, countries and corporations alike are increasingly allocating resources to Bitcoin. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) that governments are beginning to adopt Bitcoin in larger volumes as part of their financial strategies. Novogratz's comments align with reports that countries with unstable currencies are turning to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

This trend is significant because it signals a growing acceptance of Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as a legitimate store of value. The implications of such global adoption could further underpin Bitcoin’s trajectory toward becoming a mainstream financial instrument.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's ascent has not been without its hurdles. After reaching the $97,000 milestone, BTC/USD faced resistance near $97,500, triggering a minor pullback. This correction is attributed to bearish signals from the stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the cryptocurrency might need to consolidate before its next leg higher.

The exponential moving average (EMA50) continues to lend support to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, with the key support level currently pegged at $93,260. For traders, maintaining this support is crucial to sustain the broader uptrend. Should Bitcoin break below $93,260, it could signal a reversal, but such a scenario seems unlikely given the prevailing macroeconomic and regulatory tailwinds.

For today, the expected trading range is between $94,000 (support) and $98,500 (resistance), with a bullish bias still dominating. A successful breach of the $97,500 resistance would set the stage for Bitcoin to target the coveted $100,000 level in the near term then $110,000.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY BITCOIN

ENTRY PRICE: 97500

STOP LOSS: 92000

TAKE PROFIT: 110000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Despite finding some support following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s meeting minutes indicating cooled expectations for near-term rate cuts, the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces ongoing pressure against the strengthening US Dollar (USD). While the RBA's cautious stance on inflation provides a floor for AUD, the prevailing trend of USD strength weighs heavily on the currency pair.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.65186

Entry Price

0.63800

0.65900

0.64972 -0.00131 -0.20%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.63800

Exit Price

0.65186

Entry Price

0.65900

Fundamentals

On November 9th, the RBA released its meeting minutes, revealing continued vigilance over rising inflation. The central bank noted that core inflation remains elevated, projecting it will take until 2026 for underlying prices to reach the 2%-3% target range sustainably.

This suggests a reduced likelihood of rate cuts before inflation is adequately contained, tempering market anticipation for immediate easing measures, thereby lending some support to AUD.

However, the USD's ascending trajectory has become a dominant force. Market forecasts indicate that the incoming Trump administration could stoke inflationary pressures, potentially curtailing the Fed's path toward rate cuts, and further bolstering the USD's upward momentum. Consequently, downward pressure on AUD/USD persists.

Technical Analysis

Based on the monthly chart, AUD/USD remains beneath a downtrend. After approaching the trendline, the price action was met with renewed weakness, suggesting that the bearish trend may persist. This implies that AUD/USD might test lower levels again, potentially reaching fresh lows.

The daily chart illustrates AUD/USD's ongoing descent within a bearish channel, hinting at further declines. Coupled with the RSI below 50, this increases the probability of continued depreciation.

Presently, AUD/USD has retreated below the resistance level of 0.6550, signaling a resumption of the downtrend. The initial target could be the monthly support at 0.6350, suggesting a bearish bias. Therefore, selling at highs is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6520

Target price: 0.6380

Stop loss: 0.6590

Validity Till: Dec 05, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 0.6484/0.6442/0.6348

Resistance: 0.6543/0.6570/0.6687

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY faces increasing downward pressure, with technical indicators aligning to confirm a bearish trend.

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

195.800

Entry Price

189.560

198.000

193.315 -1.233 -0.63%

167.7

Pips

Profit

189.560

194.123

Exit Price

195.800

Entry Price

198.000

The GBP/JPY currency pair is experiencing mounting selling pressure, with the daily chart revealing a bearish undertone. As of Thursday’s European session, the pair trades around 195.80, paring earlier gains and staying within a descending channel pattern that has defined its trajectory in recent sessions. This price action reflects a market still grappling with a broader downturn fueled by weakening technical indicators and a risk-averse sentiment.

A deep dive into the technical landscape paints a grim picture for GBP/JPY bulls. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains firmly below the 14-day EMA, signaling persistent weakness in short-term momentum. This alignment underscores a market where bearish forces are maintaining control, leaving little room for optimism in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a critical momentum oscillator, hovers just below the neutral 50 mark. This subtle but crucial positioning further reinforces the pair’s bearish inclination, suggesting that sellers are likely to dominate unless a strong catalyst emerges.

Additionally, GBP/JPY has settled near the lower boundary of its descending channel at the 193.50 level. This zone serves as the immediate support and a critical juncture for price action. A decisive break below this support could accelerate losses, potentially dragging the pair toward the two-month low of 189.56, last seen on September 30.

On the upside, immediate resistance is evident at the nine-day EMA of 196.46, followed closely by the 14-day EMA at 196.63. These levels represent hurdles for any potential recovery attempts, as sellers are likely to defend these zones vigorously.

Should the pair manage to breach the upper boundary of the descending channel, located around 197.70, the bearish bias could be nullified, paving the way for a retest of the four-month high at 199.81, recorded on October 30. However, given the prevailing market dynamics, such a scenario seems increasingly improbable without a significant shift in sentiment.

The pair’s recent price behavior further substantiates the bearish outlook. GBP/JPY briefly tested the 197.78 resistance earlier this week but failed to sustain gains, retreating to its current levels. This inability to hold higher ground confirms the dominance of sellers, who have effectively capped upward momentum.

Adding to the bearish narrative, the pair is consolidating near the 55-day Moving Average (MA55), which acts as a dynamic resistance. Stochastic oscillators also indicate a downward bias, suggesting that fresh bearish momentum could drive the pair lower in the coming sessions.

The immediate focus is on the 193.50 mark, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel. A breach of this level could expose GBP/JPY to further declines, with 194.10 and 194.80 acting as interim targets. Beyond this, the two-month low at 189.56 becomes a realistic downside target.

On the flip side, resistance at 196.46 (nine-day EMA) and 196.63 (14-day EMA) serves as initial barriers. The upper boundary of the descending channel at 197.70 represents a more significant hurdle, and only a decisive breakout here could signal a shift in trend.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 195.80

STOP LOSS: 198.00

TAKE PROFIT: 189.56

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices have risen for the fourth consecutive session, hitting a one-and-a-half-week high at $2,660.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2665.00

Entry Price

2800.00

2560.00

2703.28 +33.83 +1.27%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2560.00

Exit Price

2665.00

Entry Price

2800.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their rally into a fourth straight day, climbing to a one-and-a-half-week high near $2,660 during Thursday's European session. The yellow metal has garnered strength as escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war drive investors toward safe-haven assets. Despite these gains, elevated U.S. bond yields and a resilient U.S. dollar are capping the upside for gold, reflecting a complex interplay of risk factors influencing market dynamics.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a dominant force behind gold's bullish momentum. Recent developments, including Russian President Vladimir Putin's alarming shift in nuclear strike policies, have heightened global uncertainty. As geopolitical risks intensify, gold’s allure as a hedge against systemic risks grows, underscoring its role as a critical component of diversified portfolios during periods of heightened volatility.

On the other hand, the gold market is contending with significant headwinds. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, which reflect investor expectations of tighter monetary conditions, continue to exert pressure. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged on Wednesday, marking its largest weekly advance, as inflationary concerns take center stage.

Complicating matters further is the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar, supported by resilient economic data and hawkish undertones from Federal Reserve officials. Although the dollar experienced a modest pullback in the latest session, it remains near year-to-date highs, limiting gold's upside potential as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook remains pivotal for gold’s trajectory. While a cautious tone from Fed officials suggests a pause in interest rate cuts, market participants remain divided. Recent comments from key policymakers such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlight concerns over inflation’s persistent nature and the potential need for additional rate hikes.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in just over a 50% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. This uncertainty has kept market participants on edge, as any deviation from current expectations could trigger sharp moves in both the dollar and gold prices.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold remains on solid footing, supported by its position above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). The precious metal successfully breached the $2,655 level, opening the door for further gains toward $2,800. However, a break below $2,620 could introduce downside risks, with initial targets at $2,560 and extended declines potentially reaching $2,513.

The immediate trading range is expected to lie between $2,640 as support and $2,675 as resistance. While the broader trend remains bullish, traders should exercise caution given the potential for volatility stemming from geopolitical and macroeconomic developments.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2665

STOP LOSS: 2560

TAKE PROFIT: 2800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

The lingering shadow of weak global oil demand refuses to dissipate, and there is limited support from geopolitical tensions. Oil prices struggle to rise.

SELL BRENT

EXP

TRADING

72.673

Entry Price

69.000

74.500

73.442 -0.398 -0.54%

0.0

Pips

Flat

69.000

Exit Price

72.673

Entry Price

74.500

Fundamentals

Recently, with the U.S. election results settled and tensions in the Middle East significantly reduced, the crude oil market briefly returned to a downtrend. However, a series of escalating conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with Moscow's lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, have heightened tensions again, providing additional support for crude oil prices.

Nevertheless, the crude oil market is still dominated by supply and demand fundamentals. The impact of short-term geopolitical tensions on oil prices is limited. With the resumption of production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions have been offset. Furthermore, the latest increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.75 million barrels indicates that demand for crude oil remains weak, echoing the recent downward revisions of global oil demand forecasts by major energy agencies and investment banks. Even if OPEC+ postpones production increases again, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market. The outlook for oil prices is worrisome.

Technical Analysis

Converging Trendlines Indicate Imminent Market Shift_1

In the daily chart, oil prices continue to hover in the lower region of the year, with lower highs and converging trendlines. A new market turning point is getting closer. Once the key support around 70.7 is effectively broken, oil prices may accelerate their decline, potentially reaching the 2021 low of around 65.0.

Converging Trendlines Indicate Imminent Market Shift_2

Looking at the 1-hour chart, BRENT maintains a volatile pattern, presenting an expanding megaphone shape. After touching the upper edge of the megaphone, oil prices have retraced. Due to the weak short-term rebound, bears may make a comeback.

Traders are advised to focus on shorting BRENT at higher levels and may consider placing short orders around 72.8 once the price stabilizes. Targets can be at around 69.0, with the stop-loss placed above 74.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 72.8

Target Price: 69.0

Stop Loss: 74.5

Support: 70.7/69.0

Resistance: 73.0/74.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Due to the decline in gasoline prices being less than last month, Canada's annualized inflation rate accelerated in October, exceeding expectations and reaching 2.0%. This may reduce the likelihood of the Bank of Canada (BOC) implementing significant interest rate cuts again in December.

SELL USDCAD

EXP

PENDING

1.40800

Entry Price

1.38300

1.41790

1.39871 +0.00133 +0.10%

Pips

PENDING

1.38300

Exit Price

1.40800

Entry Price

1.41790

Fundamentals

In October, inflation in Canada accelerated, with the overall CPI rising by 2.0% for the year, slightly above the anticipated 1.9% and higher than September's 1.6%. The primary driver was a slowdown in the decline of gasoline prices, which fell by 4.0% YoY, compared to a 10.7% drop in September. Excluding gasoline, the CPI for all categories increased by 2.2%, remaining consistent with August and September.

Commodity prices experienced a mild rebound, rising by 0.1% after a YoY decrease of 1.0% in September. The inflation rate for services decreased to 3.6%, marking the smallest increase since January 2022. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4% MoM, reversing a similar downward trend observed in the previous month.

Core inflation indictors also exceeded expectations. The median CPI increased from 2.3% YoY to 2.5%, the adjusted CPI rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, and the average CPI climbed from 2.1% to 2.2%. All three figures surpassed general market expectations.

MARKET WATCH: Due to the historic rise in gasoline prices and property taxes, inflation in Canada accelerated in October, with the inflation rate rebounding to 2%. After seasonal adjustments, the inflation rate increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month; while this is not alarming, it certainly does not provide reassurance.

Considering other factors (such as the uptick in real estate activity, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, and the uncertainty surrounding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December), this October report is likely to diminish calls for the BOC to implement a 50 basis point rate cut, shifting the focus towards a 25 basis point rate cut instead.

Furthermore, although the inflation rate has remained at or below the BOC's target level of 2% for three consecutive months and has stayed within the BOC's desired range of 1%-3% for ten months, policymakers will still need to consider employment and GDP data before the next policy meeting, as these data could significantly influence the anticipated magnitude of any rate cuts.

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD has recently demonstrated impressive performance, even garnering new buying interest last Friday, reaching a four-year high of 1.4105, which has sparked optimism regarding the onset of a new bull market cycle. However, given that both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic Oscillator are hovering in the overbought zone, some consolidation may occur, indicating that the current bull market may be overstretched.

Currently, the USDCAD has retraced from the four-year peak of 1.4105, and it is anticipated to rise again. A break above 1.4105 would restore a more significant upward trend, targeting a 61.8% retracement from 1.3841 to 1.3958 at 1.4175. However, a drop below 1.3958 would lead to prolonged consolidation and could potentially result in a further pullback to 1.3841.

Overall, after testing the four-year high of 1.4105, the USDCAD has experienced a pullback, and it is expected that any rebound will not surpass this level, potentially forming a double top pattern that could lead to further downside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.4080

Target Price: 1.3830

Stop Loss: 1.4179

Deadline: December 5, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 1.3958, 1.3931, 1.3879

Resistance: 1.4037, 1.4075, 1.4105

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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