Rising Wedge Pattern Breakout

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

AUDCHF pair is showing signs of a potential reversal, and traders should exercise caution when trading this pair. The technical indicators suggest that the price may continue to fall, and traders should look for potential short opportunities.

SELL AUDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.61700

Entry Price

0.60000

0.63000

0.55914 +0.00024 +0.04%

61.1

Pips

Profit

0.60000

0.61089

Exit Price

0.61700

Entry Price

0.63000

The AUDCHF pair has been on a bullish rally for the past few weeks, however, it seems that the rally is coming to an end as technical indicators suggest a potential reversal.

On the 1-hour timeframe, the RSI is showing a bearish divergence, which means that the momentum of the bullish trend is weakening. This is a sign that a potential reversal could be on the horizon. Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has been formed, which is also a bearish reversal pattern.

Furthermore, the price is currently trading below the 200 EMA, which is a bearish signal. The 200 EMA acts as a support level for the price, and if the price breaks below it, it indicates a shift in market sentiment towards bearish.

The main event that triggered this shift in market sentiment was the breakout of the rising wedge pattern. This pattern is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price forms higher highs and higher lows, but the highs become smaller over time, indicating a loss of momentum.

As the price broke below the rising wedge pattern, it signaled a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. This breakout could potentially lead to a good drop in the price, and we could see the price at 0.605.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDCHF

ENTRY PRICE : 0.61700

STOPLOSS: 0.6300

TAKE PROFIT : 0.6000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

CADJPY pair is currently under a strong bearish trend despite mixed reviews. While a break and test scenario is expected, it is advisable to short the pair due to the current market situation and the Dxy's weakness. Keep a close watch on the market indicators and wait for a clear trend reversal or a signal to enter the market.

SELL CADJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

95.000

Entry Price

90.000

98.000

109.498 -0.159 -0.14%

30.4

Pips

Profit

90.000

94.696

Exit Price

95.000

Entry Price

98.000

CADJPY has been a currency pair with mixed reviews in recent times due to the strength of the JPY and the bearish trend of the CAD. Since the banking crisis in the US, the JPY has been one of the strongest currencies in the market. Hence, it is essential to take extra care while considering this trade.

The CADJPY is currently under a strong bearish trend, and the JPY is surging. The lows have been broken, and the table has been turned. In the weeks to come, the only rational thing to do is to short the pair. The reason being, the Dxy continues to show weakness, and there is a high possibility that this trade will follow suit.

From a technical analysis perspective, the pair is aiming at the strong demand zone, and a break and test scenario is expected. However, the lows have already been broken, which indicates a strong bearish trend. In such a situation, shorting the pair seems to be the only viable option.

The current market situation has created a lot of uncertainty, and hence it is essential to tread cautiously. It is advisable to wait for a clear trend reversal or a signal to enter the market. It is also important to keep a close watch on the market indicators and factors that can impact the CADJPY pair's performance.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL CADJPY

ENTRY PRICE : 95.00

STOPLOSS : 98.00

TAKE PROFIT : 90.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The GBPUSD touched its highest level since Feb.14 during the Asian session on Monday. In the first half of the European session, the pair traded above the 1.2200 mark and remained under the influence of the price dynamics of the dollar.

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.21400

Entry Price

1.24160

1.19040

1.25232 -0.00009 -0.01%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.19040

1.24012

Exit Price

1.21400

Entry Price

1.24160

Fundamentals

Widespread risk aversion (as portrayed by weaker equity markets) has pushed some safe-haven money into the dollar and posed resistance to the GBPUSD. Despite the emergency measures taken in the US and Europe to provide liquidity to troubled banks, investors remain concerned about the potential for risk contagion and a full-blown global banking crisis. This in turn continues to weigh on investor sentiment and favors traditional safe-haven assets, including the dollar.

Nonetheless, the continued decline in US Treasury yields, with the reduced likelihood of more aggressive Fed tightening, has dampened further gains for the dollar and continues to provide support for the GBPUSD. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will soften its hawkish rhetoric, especially after the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This, along with the anti-risk flow, has led to a further sharp decline in US Treasury yields and could limit the dollar's gains.

As for the UK, the Bank of England (BOE) expects inflation, which is still in double digits, to fall sharply. However, the change is not visible in the economic data. As a result, we expect the pound to struggle.

BOE expects inflation to fall rapidly this year. However, so far, there is still a risk that inflation will rise. If inflation does persist more than the BOE expects, its rather moderate stance could further depress the pound. The pound may also continue to weaken next year as we expect the BOE to cut its key interest rate again given the weak economy and some decline in inflation.

BOE may raise interest rates by a modest 25 basis points on Thursday, but gains in the pound may be limited as the bank is likely to issue a cautious outlook.

While we expect the BOE to raise rates by 25 basis points, the probability is closer to 50%, as it is for other central banks in the current highly volatile environment. The market's implied probability of a rate hike currently stands at 57%, but a strong hint of a pause by BOE policymakers could prevent the pound from rising sharply.

Traders also seem reluctant to make big bets now and may prefer to stay on the sidelines until key central bank risk events emerge this week. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to raise rates by a smaller margin of 25 basis points amid deteriorating economic conditions. Following closely behind is Thursday's BOE meeting, which should provide some meaningful impetus for the GBPUSD and help determine the next directional move.

GBPUSD: Mainly Buy at Lows Rather Than Pursuing Highs with Strong Short-term Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD is rising again above the 1.2200 level and is gaining some nice (short-term) momentum.

The pair has found solid support in the recent sharp decline and looks likely to extend gains through the 55 SMA at the 1.2132 level. It may continue to test major resistance in the 1.2290 - 1.2300 area in the short term, with a further rally to retest 1.2445 resistance.

If so, the three-wave retracement pattern from 1.2445 to 1.1801 may have been completed. For now, the outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as the 1.2009 support level is held. It is recommended to buy at lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trade direction: Short

Entry price: 1.2140

Target price: 1.2416

Stop loss: 1.1904

Valid until 2023-04-03 23:55:00

Support: 1.2125, 1.2010, 1.1955

Resistance: 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2398

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

USDCAD has already shown signs of volatility contraction ahead of important data from Canada and the United States. The RSI is oscillating in the 40-60 range, indicating that traders are waiting for new triggers to take further action.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36805

Entry Price

1.35500

1.38650

1.44044 -0.00016 -0.01%

21.8

Pips

Profit

1.35500

1.36587

Exit Price

1.36805

Entry Price

1.38650

Fundamentals

USDCAD has been pulling back during the European session after surging slightly higher during the Asian session. Canadian dollar assets showed a narrow contraction market performance as traders are waiting for the upcoming release of Canada's February CPI monthly rate on Tuesday and the Fed's interest rate decision.

As the restructuring of the US banking sector has greatly affected traders’ confidence over the past week, markets now are focusing on the Fed's decision to raise interest rates slightly or keep monetary policy unchanged.

Meanwhile, the Standard and Poor's 500 has shown a recovery after Friday's close, as further expansion of the Fed's balance sheet led to a further downward correction of the dollar index. Nonetheless, traders' appetite for risk in the U.S. stock market has been extremely weak.

Regarding the Canadian dollar, investors are awaiting Canada's inflation data on Tuesday. According to consensus expectations, Canada's CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in February, down from the previous expectation of 0.5%， which could drag the annual headline CPI further to 5.5%. In addition, the annual core CPI is expected to slow to 4.6% from the previously released 5.0%. Therefore, the rise in the Canadian dollar is expected to be difficult to achieve. Actually, the improvement in risk appetite is a modest plus for USDCAD. However, although the yield differential between the US and Canada is not so heavy for the CAD after last week's turmoil, it is hard to say that this is not a drag. Convincing reasons for pushing the loonie higher are rarely found, which could imply a retreat to the 1.3600-1.3500 range.

USDCAD: The Multi-Short Game Meets Triangular Oscillation Again, but No More Upward this Time_1

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 1-hour timeframe, USDCAD has been presented in a symmetrical convergence triangle pattern, indicating a contracting fluctuation. which will follow the beginning of an expansion after that. Prices are currently consolidating below the 1.3730 level and are trading neutral during the day. The trend also overlaps with the MA20 (level 1.3724), which may suppose to be a continuing oscillation in the short term.

Moreover, the RSI is oscillating in the 40-60 range, telling that new triggers are being waited by bulls for further action.

On the upside, breaching the upper edge of the triangle will resume the rally opened from the 1.3261 level and retest the 1.3976 high. However, a firm break by the bears below the lower edge of the triangle finishing and a break below the support of the 1.3650 level will drag down the asset and bring a deeper pullback.

Judging from the current upward pullback pattern, the upward pressure is still quite heavy, but the downside support is also very strong, which means that the choice of direction has returned to a new crossroads. As for how to choose? We infer that mean reversion makes more sense. Operationally, it is recommended to take short positions at high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1.3710

Target Price: 1.3550

Stop Loss: 1.3865

Valid until: 2023-04-03 23:55:00

Support: 1.3677/1.3651/1.3621

Resistance: 1.3748/1.3772/1.3815

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

WTI oil prices are currently below the US storage launch price announced previously, and declines may be limited.

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

64.500

Entry Price

72.000

61.500

69.386 -0.124 -0.18%

Pips

EXPIRED

61.500

106.239

Exit Price

64.500

Entry Price

72.000

Fundamentals

Macroscopically: Investors' sentiment remains fragile due to the frequent crisis in European and US banks. Meanwhile, banks in the US have sought a record 153 billion USD in emergency funding from the Fed in recent days. In contrast, news that Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank will receive 54 billion USD in loans and 30 billion USD in funding respectively failed to stop both stocks from falling, with risk aversion still high and spot gold prices once rising above 2000.

Positioning: As of March 7th, 2023, the non-commercial net long position in the WTI crude oil futures contract was 206,900 lots, down 8,400 lots from the previous week. Additionally, as of March 14th, 2023, the non-commercial net long position in the Brent crude oil futures contract was 32,400 lots, down 55,500 lots from the previous week, with a weakened bearish atmosphere in the late session.

Inventory: The inventory report released by the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.55 million barrels to 480.06 million barrels in the week ended March 10th, compared to a previous estimate of an increase of 1.188 million barrels. Besides, crude oil inventories in the Cushing region decreased by 1.916 million barrels to 37.912 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 2.061 million barrels to 236 million barrels, compared to a previous estimate of a decrease of 1.82 million barrels.

Demand: WTI crude oil futures prices plunged below 70USD/bbl. last week for the first time since December 2021, which could stimulate the US government to start replenishing its strategic oil reserves, thereby boosting demand.

Supply: Saudi Arabia's energy minister demonstrated in an interview that OPEC+ will stick to the production cut deal reached last October until the end of this year. The market expects OPEC+ to cut production if oil prices show signs of collapsing, despite OPEC's silence following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Currently, the meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to be held on April 3rd does provide an opportunity for OPEC to adjust its production policy.

Generally: The crisis in European and US banks intensified macro downside and financial pressure, trapping oil prices under pressure continuously. However, OPEC + decided to maintain the same production cut strategy, and now WTI oil prices have dropped below the US storage launch price announced previously, with the US strategic oil reserves already at historically low levels. Accordingly, a replenishment plan for oil reserves will be activated at any time, while the decline in oil prices will be further limited under slowing rate hikes by the Fed. Therefore, it is better to go short in the near term and go long in the long run.

Fundamentals

Regarding the daily chart, WTI plummeted from 81 to 65 in two weeks by nearly 20%, and the decline slowed after breaking the previous support (68). Presently, MACD forms a death cross with an expanding opening, indicating a weaker trend in the short run. Nonetheless, WTI is approaching to the oversold zone, and a rebounding correction with oscillation from lows will emerge anytime. WTI: Watch for Changes in Risk Aversion Under Weak Period _1

WTI: Watch for Changes in Risk Aversion Under Weak Period _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 64.500

Target price: 72.000

Stop loss: 61.500

Support: 64.400/62.400

Resistance: 68.000/72.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

There is limited room for copper prices to continue to fall, but there is no more room to hope for the above. It is recommended to remain rolling when going long.

BUY COPPER

EXP

EXPIRED

8550.000

Entry Price

8850.000

8250.000

8985.400 +26.450 +0.30%

Pips

EXPIRED

8250.000

84.090

Exit Price

8550.000

Entry Price

8850.000

Fundamentals

On the macro front, the risk events of the past few days indicate that bad news always arrives unexpectedly. Any new financial stress could prompt policymakers to be cautious and take a "wait-and-see" stance. Regardless of the Fed's decision next week, the dovish outlook has emerged. The FOMC is likely to emphasize the importance of maintaining financial stability and being ready to take action to prevent systemic risks from becoming a reality, and this message could lead to further dollar weakness.

In terms of inventories, as of Monday, March 20, SMM copper inventories across major Chinese markets fell by 0.75 million tons to 218,700 tons from last Friday, down 43,700 tons from last Monday and up 22,100 tons from the pre-holiday period. Only some areas showed a decline in inventories at the end of last week, while the rest were flat compared to last Friday. If the downstream purchasing demand continues to be favorable during the week, it is expected that stocks will still be depleted during the week. However, the magnitude of de-stocking may slow down compared to last week with the replenishment of imported goods.

On the supply side, after the Panama Maritime Authority recently lifted the order suspending First Quantum Minerals' loading operations at the port of Punta Rincón, the Copper mine at Cobre Panamá, operated by First Quantum, has returned to normal levels. The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that in January 2023, global refined copper production was 2,281,100 tons and refined copper consumption was 2,348,200 tons, leaving a supply shortage of 67,100 tons.

On the news front, according to foreign news on March 17, data released by the Statistics Bureau on Friday showed that Kazakhstan's January-February refined copper output fell 15.2% year-on-year, and refined zinc output dropped by 14.2%.

Overall, the most dominant factor suppressing the current copper price trend is the fermentation of risks in the overseas banking sector. From a medium-term perspective, we cannot rule out the risk of further proliferation and an increase in the crisis. But from the perspective of the U.S. and European regulatory trends, the current risk is still controllable, and the market is expected to stabilize again after the release of risk in the short term. Now we have entered the "Gold March&Silver April" seasonal peak consumption season, China's domestic supply and demand will increase on both ends, and the decline in copper prices on demand has also boosted the demand. Recently, the pace of domestic depots has accelerated, and the global low inventory of copper is still supportive of copper prices. There is limited room for copper prices to continue to fall, and a strong drop is instead an opportunity to go long. But since there are more uncertainties this year, the space above can not be given too heavy expectations. It is recommended to remain rolling when going long.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom after the downside; however, the rebound was blocked at the pivot position and then the price started the downside again. The MACD indicator's opening continues to stretch below the 0 axis. In the short term, the price is still weak, but it is still near the lower edge of the box, and there is still momentum to rebound on the support of the bottom of the box. Aggressive traders can roll when going long with light positions at the lower edge of the box. COPPER: With a Top and a Bottom, Rolling When Going Long_1

COPPER: With a Top and a Bottom, Rolling When Going Long_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 8500

Target price: 8750

Stop loss: 8250

Support: 8450/8200

Resistance: 8750/9000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Forex

Summary:

EUR/NZD has broken below the rising support level and has a bearish bias in the market. We can expect the price to fall down to retest the demand level below at 1.65250. Traders should be cautious of any potential pullbacks and look for bearish confirmation signals before entering any short positions.

SELL EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.70500

Entry Price

1.65000

1.72500

1.85067 -0.00254 -0.14%

200.0

Pips

Loss

1.65000

1.72512

Exit Price

1.70500

Entry Price

1.72500

EUR/NZD Breaks Below Rising Support, Bearish Bias Expected_1

EUR/NZD has been trading along a rising support level for the past few weeks, but it has now broken below that support level. As a result, there is a bearish bias in the market and we can expect the price to fall down to retest the demand level below.

On the daily chart, we can see that the price has broken below the rising support level and has closed below it for the past few days. This indicates that there is a strong selling pressure in the market and the bears have taken control of the price action. The next level of support is at 1.65250, which is the demand level that the price may retest in the coming days.

Furthermore, the MACD indicator has crossed below the signal line and is moving further away from it. This confirms the bearish bias in the market and suggests that the selling pressure is likely to continue. Additionally, the RSI indicator is also trending lower and is not yet oversold, which means that there is still room for the price to fall further.

From a technical perspective, the bearish breakout below the rising support level is a strong bearish signal. Therefore, we can expect the price to continue to fall in the short term. However, we should also be cautious of any potential pullbacks or corrections along the way

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURNZD

ENTRY PRICE : 1.70500

STOPLOSS : 1.72500

TAKE PROFIT : 1.6500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Rising Wedge Pattern Breakout

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

CADJPY Bearish Despite Mix Reviews

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Mainly Buy at Lows Rather Than Pursuing Highs with Strong Short-term Momentum

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The Multi-Short Game Meets Triangular Oscillation Again, but No More Upward this Time

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Watch for Changes in Risk Aversion Under Weak Period

Fundamentals

Fundamentals

Trading Recommendations

With a Top and a Bottom, Rolling When Going Long

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR/NZD Breaks Below Rising Support, Bearish Bias Expected

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Risk Disclosure