AUD/JPY surges above Ichimoku cloud

Forex

Summary:

AUD/JPY is trading around 97.11, rising sharply after breaking through a key resistance zone at 96.99. The AUD is supported by positive economic data from Australia and a weaker Japanese Yen amid the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy...

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

97.110

Entry Price

97.500

96.800

96.690 +0.353 +0.37%

31.0

Pips

Loss

96.800

Exit Price

97.110

Entry Price

97.500

AUD/JPY is trading around 97.11, up sharply from an intraday low of 96.26. The upside momentum comes from the AUD’s recovery on positive Australian labor data, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9% and job creation exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure as the BoJ reaffirms its stance of maintaining negative interest rates to support the economy.

In addition, the recovery in commodity prices – especially iron ore, Australia's main export – also contributed to strengthening the AUD in this trading session.

Market psychology

Market sentiment is currently tilted towards the AUD as investors view the Australian economic outlook more positively than Japan. Strong economic data from Australia has increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain steady monetary policy in the near term.

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen continues to be under pressure from the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy and the demand for safe havens decreases as global stock markets recover. Trading data on the M30 chart shows that buying pressure increased sharply when the price broke through the resistance zone at 96.99, reflecting that market sentiment is leaning towards the bullish trend for AUD/JPY.

Technical analysis

On the M30 chart: AUD/JPY surges above Ichimoku cloud_1

Ichimoku Cloud: Price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming a clear short-term uptrend.

Bollinger Bands: Price is currently hovering near the upper Bollinger Band at 97.11, indicating that buying pressure remains strong.

Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) has entered the overbought zone (80), signaling a possible slight correction before continuing the uptrend. If the price holds above the new support level at 96.99, the next target will be the strong resistance zone at 97.50 – where the price has been rejected many times before.

Trading Recommendations

AUD/JPY is in a clear uptrend, supported by positive economic data in Australia and the weakening of the Japanese Yen due to the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy. If the pair holds above key technical support levels such as 96.99, the uptrend could continue in the short term.

Based on technical and fundamental analysis:

Entry: Buy at current levels around 97.11 or when price retests support at 96.99.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest resistance zone at 97.50 or higher at 97.75 if bullish momentum is strong.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the important support level at 96.80 to protect capital in case price breaks down.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

EUR/USD is trading around 1.0295, slightly down after failing to hold above the 1.0310 resistance zone. The Euro is under pressure from weak economic data in the Eurozone, while the USD is supported by rising US bond yields...

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.02950

Entry Price

1.02800

1.03250

1.02600 -0.00386 -0.37%

15.0

Pips

Profit

1.02800

Exit Price

1.02950

Entry Price

1.03250

On January 17, 2025, EUR/USD was trading around 1.0295, after failing to break above the resistance at 1.0310. The Euro was pressured by weak economic data from the Eurozone, with the core CPI coming in at 4.2% in December, below expectations of 4.4%. This increased the likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its loose monetary policy for longer to support economic growth.

On the other hand, the USD continued to be supported by US bond yields rising to a weekly high of 4.75%, thanks to expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates to control inflation.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment reflects a bias towards the US dollar as investors assess the US economic outlook more positively than the Eurozone. At the same time, safe-haven flows are returning to the US dollar amid concerns about a weakening global economic outlook.

Trading data on the M30 chart (attached image) shows that selling pressure increased sharply as the price approached the resistance zone at 1.0310, reflecting that the market sentiment is still tilted towards the bearish trend for EUR/USD.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD falls after failing at resistance zone_1

On the M30 chart:

Ichimoku Cloud: Price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming the bearish trend prevails in the short term.

Bollinger Bands: Price is currently hovering near the middle Bollinger Bands and is trending towards the lower band at the support level of 1.0280.

CCI (Commodity Channel Index): The CCI indicator is currently at -23.80, indicating that selling pressure is still strong but has not yet fallen into oversold territory. If the exchange rate breaks the support level at 1.0280, the next target will be the strong support zone at 1.0250 – where the lower Bollinger Bands converge.

Trading Recommendations

EUR/USD is in a clear downtrend, pressured by weak economic data in the Eurozone and a strong recovery in the USD thanks to rising US bond yields. If the exchange rate breaks key support levels such as 1.0280 and 1.0250, the downtrend could continue in the short term.

Based on technical and fundamental analysis:

Entry: Sell at current levels around 1.0295 or when price retests resistance at 1.0310.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest support zone at 1.0280 or deeper at 1.0250 if selling pressure increases.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above the key resistance level at 1.0325 to protect capital in case price breaks to the upside.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6213, falling sharply after failing to sustain above the resistance zone at 0.6225. The AUD is under pressure from weak economic data in Australia...

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.62130

Entry Price

0.61850

0.62350

0.61895 -0.00218 -0.35%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.61850

Exit Price

0.62130

Entry Price

0.62350

Overview

On January 17, 2025, the AUD/USD pair was trading around 0.6213, down sharply from an intraday high of 0.6235. The AUD came under pressure after Australian unemployment data showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in December, far exceeding expectations of 3.9%. This raised concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to maintain its easy monetary policy for longer to support the economy.

On the other hand, the USD received support from the 10-year US bond yield rising to 4.75%, strengthening the greenback against commodity currencies such as the AUD.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bearish for AUD/USD as investors view the Australian economic outlook more negatively than the US. Weak economic data from Australia has undermined confidence in the resilience of the economy, especially as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – is also facing a slowdown.

Meanwhile, the USD continues to be supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period to control inflation, despite recent dovish signals from Chairman Jerome Powell. Trading data on the M15 chart shows that selling pressure has increased sharply as the price approaches the resistance zone at 0.6225, reflecting that the market sentiment is still tilted towards the downside for this currency pair.

Technical analysis

On M15 chart:

AUD/USD Drops Sharply: Will the Downtrend Continue?_1

Ichimoku Cloud: Price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming the bearish trend continues to dominate in the short term.

Bollinger Bands: Price is currently hovering near the lower Bollinger Band at 0.6210, indicating that selling pressure remains strong.

Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator has exited the overbought zone and is crossing below the signal line, signaling a possible further downside correction. If the price breaks the support level at 0.6205, the next target will be the strong support zone at 0.6185 – where the lower Bollinger Bands converge on the H1 timeframe.

Trading Recommendations

AUD/USD is in a clear downtrend, pressured by weak economic data in Australia and a strong recovery in the USD. If the exchange rate breaks key support levels such as 0.6205 and 0.6185, the downtrend could continue in the short term.

Based on technical and fundamental analysis:

Entry: Sell at current levels around 0.6213 or when price retests resistance at 0.6225.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest support zone at 0.6185 or deeper at 0.6165 if selling pressure increases.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above the key resistance level at 0.6235 to protect capital in case price breaks to the upside.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Fed officials sent dovish signals, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts increased.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

2697.00

Entry Price

2735.00

2683.00

2702.67 -12.23 -0.45%

Pips

PENDING

2683.00

Exit Price

2697.00

Entry Price

2735.00

Fundamentals

On Thursday, Fed officials began to send dovish signals in response to the moderation of December's core inflation data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if US economic data weakens further, there could be three to four rate cuts this year. Driven by the increased likelihood of rate cuts, gold will get continuous support.

Meanwhile, the retail sales data for December released on Thursday also shows signs of a slowdown in the US economy. Retail sales in December, as reported by the US Commerce Department, increased by only 0.4% month-on-month, lower than the 0.8% in November. Although sales data continue to grow, the slowdown in the growth rate indicates the weakening of consumer spending, suggesting the combined influence of high interest rates and inflation on the US economy.

Moreover, it is worth noting that Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire deal on January 15, which would last for six weeks. In the short term, the market's risk-averse sentiment may weaken. However, soon after the deal was signed, Israel launched an air strike on Gaza, rendering the ceasefire deal ineffective. The market's risk-averse sentiment will keep boosting gold.

Technical Analysis

The 4-hour chart confirms that gold remains in an uptrend channel shortly. Yesterday, gold rose to the resistance level of 2720 and simultaneously touched the upper rail of the uptrend channel, forming a resonance of pressure. The short-term upward pressure has increased, raising the possibility of a pullback.

At present, the first target of gold's pullback will be to test the support level of 2690.00. If there are signals of stabilizing and halting the decline at this level, the short-term uptrend will continue, and gold will ascend to test the resistance at 2720.00. If this resistance level is strongly breached, the upside potential of gold will be further opened up, heading toward the previous high of 2789.94.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2697.00

Target price: 2735.00

Stop loss: 2683.00

Valid Until: January 31, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 2697.91/2689.92/2676.65

Resistance: 2724.65/2636.47/2789.94

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices have experienced a minor retracement after a strong three-day rally, with profit-taking coming into play.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

2750.00

Entry Price

2790.00

2675.00

2702.67 -12.23 -0.45%

Pips

PENDING

2675.00

Exit Price

2750.00

Entry Price

2790.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are undergoing a slight retracement on Friday after a remarkable three-day rally, with the yellow metal holding above the $2,700 level. The pullback, largely attributed to profit-taking, comes after gold made impressive gains earlier in the week, driven by a mix of factors that included Federal Reserve actions, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary concerns.

As of now, the precious metal is attempting to consolidate its position above the crucial $2,700 threshold, in a bid to retain the weekly gains. However, recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller have injected a dose of uncertainty into the market. On Thursday, Waller surprised market participants by suggesting that a March interest rate cut by the Fed should not be ruled out, a statement that caught both supporters and critics of the central bank off guard.

Waller’s remark sent shockwaves through the markets, particularly in the precious metals space, as traders had not priced in such an action for the upcoming months. The surprise commentary has fueled speculation about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, with traders now questioning whether the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance earlier than expected. As gold prices hover just above the $2,700 level, traders are closely monitoring the evolving situation and the potential ramifications of a shift in the Fed’s stance on interest rates.

In addition to the Federal Reserve’s surprise comments, traders are also keeping a watchful eye on the political developments in the United States. President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office on Monday, and his administration is expected to release a series of executive orders, many of which are anticipated to contribute to a surge in inflation. This prospect has further added to the uncertainty surrounding the broader economic outlook and the potential impact on gold’s future price action.

The market’s overall sentiment remains clouded, with a sense of cautious optimism underlying gold’s performance. The recent rally saw the precious metal breaking through key levels, setting new record highs as global central banks, particularly the Fed, shifted toward a more dovish monetary policy. With inflationary pressures mounting and geopolitical risks persistently looming, UBS Group AG predicts that gold will continue to rise throughout 2025, driven by trade uncertainties and ongoing tensions in key regions of the world.

Looking ahead, the market will await the release of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report at 20:30 GMT, which will provide crucial insight into speculative positions in the gold futures market. The previous COT report showed a notable increase in speculative positions, rising to $254.9K from $247.3K the week prior. This increase in speculative positions suggests growing bullish sentiment among traders, although the recent retracement in prices raises questions about whether this trend can continue in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the technical side, the gold market is showing a slight bearish bias as the metal attempts to retrace and test the $2,700 support level. A potential test of this key barrier could pave the way for a resumption of the bullish trend if positive momentum returns to the market. The next major hurdle for gold lies at the $2,730 level, with a break above this point potentially opening the door for a push toward $2,790.

However, traders should be cautious as a break below $2,680 would signal a halt in the bullish trend, leading to a potential decline in prices. Given the current market conditions, the expected trading range for gold today is between $2,700 as support and $2,740 as resistance. The broader trend remains bullish, but traders should remain vigilant for signs of a reversal or further consolidation.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2750

STOP LOSS: 2675

TAKE PROFIT: 2790

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The pound fell on Friday. During the European session, GBPUSD traded at 1.2204, down 0.27% on the day. Since the US dollar firmly established its strength last October, GBPUSD has declined by 8.8% overall.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.21934

Entry Price

1.19630

1.23850

1.21626 -0.00742 -0.61%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.19630

Exit Price

1.21934

Entry Price

1.23850