AUD/USD: Can It Recover After Yearly Lows?

Forex

Summary:

The Australian dollar is under strong downward pressure amid a more dovish policy stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), while the US dollar is supported by positive economic data and expectations of slower rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed)...

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63600

Entry Price

0.63800

0.63400

0.62483 +0.00129 +0.21%

12.0

Pips

Loss

0.63400

0.63480

Exit Price

0.63600

Entry Price

0.63800

AUD/USD has been volatile over the past few weeks. From a high of 0.6942 in late September, the exchange rate fell to a yearly low of 0.6337 on December 13. The main reasons for this were a combination of domestic and global factors, including weak economic data from Australia, the strength of the US dollar, and uncertainty about the economic outlook for China – Australia’s largest trading partner.

The weakness in AUD/USD has been driven largely by two main factors: the RBA’s dovish monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar. The RBA has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35% through 2024, but recently signaled that it is “more confident” that inflation is moving closer to its long-term target. This has increased expectations that the RBA will begin its rate-cutting cycle early next year.

Meanwhile, the Fed has maintained a cautious stance despite starting its rate-cutting cycle by 50 basis points in September 2024. Recent US inflation data showed that both the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) were higher than expected, leading the market to expect that the Fed will not rush into further cuts.

Australia’s heavy dependence on China is also a significant weakness for the AUD. The Chinese economy continues to struggle as its stimulus measures have not been strong enough to spur sustained growth. This has hurt Australia’s commodity exports – particularly iron ore – and put pressure on the AUD.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment reflects deep concerns about the global economic outlook and the resilience of the Australian economy. Recent employment data showed improvement as the Australian economy added 35,600 jobs in November, far exceeding expectations of 25,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.9%, lower than the forecast of 4.1%. However, these positive signals were not enough to reverse the downward trend of AUD/USD as other factors continued to put pressure on the currency.

Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the RBA in February 2025 have risen to 65%, further weakening the AUD. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be supported by positive inflation data from the US, which could allow the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer than expected.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart, AUD/USD is hovering near the key support level at 0.6360 – this year’s low and a historically strong support level (tested in October 2023 and August 2024). If the price breaks this level convincingly, the next target will be the 0.6240 area – which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level.

The RSI indicator on the H4 time frame is currently near the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure has peaked temporarily and a short-term correction is likely. However, the medium-term trend remains negative as the MA50 moving average is below the MA200, confirming the bearish structure.

The Bollinger Bands are also showing signs of volatility as the lower band is expanding below the current support level. This suggests that if the price fails to hold the support zone at 0.6360, a deeper decline could occur.

Trading Recommendations

In the short term, AUD/USD is likely to fluctuate around the important support zone at 0.6360 before deciding on the next trend.

Entry: Current price is hovering around 0.63602. Consider buying if price continues to hold above current support.

Take Profit: The take profit target can be placed near the previous resistance zone, around 0.6380 to 0.6400.

Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the nearest support level, around 0.6340, to protect against a downside breakout.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On December 16, 2024, the CAD/CHF exchange rate was trading around 0.62627, down slightly by 0.06% from the previous session. This weakness reflects the impact of macroeconomic factors, including the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate cut decision and the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) monetary policy adjustment...

SELL CADCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.62600

Entry Price

0.62200

0.63000

0.62093 -0.00295 -0.47%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.62200

0.62773

Exit Price

0.62600

Entry Price

0.63000

The BoC has just cut its interest rate to 3.25%, marking the second consecutive 50 basis point cut this year, in response to slowing economic growth and stable inflation near its 2% target. Meanwhile, the SNB also cut its interest rate to 0.50% on December 12 to support the domestic economy amid weak growth and deflationary pressures.

Additionally, oil prices – an important factor affecting the CAD as Canada is a major oil exporter – have risen slightly over the past week. However, the recovery in oil prices was not enough to offset the pressure from the BoC’s loose monetary policy, leading to a weakening of the CAD against the CHF.

The BoC’s decision to cut interest rates aggressively was prompted by recent weak economic data. GDP growth in the third quarter came in at just 1.2%, below the initial forecast of 1.5%, while the unemployment rate rose to a three-year high of 6.8%. This forced the BoC to act quickly to stimulate the economy.

On the other hand, the SNB is also facing similar pressure as Swiss GDP growth this year is forecast to be only 1.2%, below the long-term average of 1.8%. However, the SNB has an advantage thanks to the traditional strength of the CHF as a safe haven asset, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine that have not yet cooled down.

The difference in monetary policy between these two central banks has created downward pressure on the CAD/CHF exchange rate.

Market psychology

Current investor sentiment reflects clear concerns about the global economic outlook. The BoC’s continued rate cuts have dented the attractiveness of the CAD to international investors. At the same time, the CHF – considered a safe haven – is being supported by the market’s defensive sentiment against global geopolitical and economic risks.

Recent trading data shows that the majority of investors are long on CAD/CHF (84%), but the exchange rate is trending lower. This shows a discrepancy between market expectations and actual performance, reflecting uncertainty in investor sentiment. The Stochastic indicator on the technical chart also shows a strong sell signal as the indicator is in overbought territory.

Technical analysis

On the 15-minute (M15) chart, CAD/CHF is hovering below the Ichimoku cloud – a bearish signal that suggests the downtrend could continue in the short term. Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is near the middle band, with strong volatility as the price approaches the lower band at the support level of 0.6260.

The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) has crossed below the signal line, entering the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term correction. If the price breaks the important support level at 0.6260, the next target could be the 0.6220 zone. Conversely, if the price rebounds from this support zone, the nearest resistance will be at 0.6340.

In the additional Bollinger Bands chart (second image), it can be seen that the price has hit a low at the sixth period and is recovering slightly towards the middle band. However, the Bollinger Bands are still widening – a sign that high volatility is still possible.

Overall, the CAD/CHF downtrend could continue in the short term if macro factors do not change significantly. Investors should pay attention to upcoming inflation data from both Canada and Switzerland to assess the possibility of further monetary policy adjustments.

If the BoC continues to cut rates at a faster pace than expected or if oil prices fail to recover more strongly, the CAD will continue to face downward pressure against the CHF. Conversely, if the SNB decides to ease monetary policy further next year – as some economists predict – the CHF could lose some of its current strength.

Trading Recommendations

The CAD/CHF exchange rate is currently being influenced by both technical and fundamental analysis with a bias towards further downside in the short term. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels along with the latest economic news to make appropriate trading decisions.Trading Recommendations:

Entry: If the rate breaks the support level at 0.6260.

Take Profit: At price zone 0.6220.

Stop Loss: Above the important resistance level at 0.6300.

The market remains volatile and unpredictable; therefore, strict risk management is essential to protect investment capital during this period.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

As the last "Super Central Bank Week" of the year approaches, where will the gold market head next?

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2663.23

Entry Price

2706.00

2605.00

2623.41 +28.97 +1.12%

582.3

Pips

Loss

2605.00

2604.90

Exit Price

2663.23

Entry Price

2706.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices edged higher in anticipation of the Fed's interest rate decision later this week. Although a rate cut by the Fed seems almost certain this week, investors are concerned that the Fed may pause rate cuts in January.

However, escalating geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand. Last week, holdings in gold ETFs increased, along with a rise in speculative net long positions. Supported by strong investment inflows, robust physical demand, and increased central bank purchases, gold prices may gain strength once again.

In addition to the Fed, other major central banks such as the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will hold their last policy meetings of the year this week. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates, the Bank of Japan may pause its rate hike cycle, and the Bank of England is likely to stand pat. However, most European and Asian central banks will follow the Fed in cutting rates.

We believe that although the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 bps this week, subsequent rate-cutting operations will undoubtedly be more cautious, and rate cuts are likely to be halted in January 2025. It is expected that after the Fed's rate cut this week, gold may face a situation where all bullish factors are exhausted, and market sentiment may remain in a weak range for the rest of the year.

If gold prices continue to decline this week, the technical outlook will also turn bearish. Currently, XAUUSD is at high levels, with a risk of a break below in the medium term.

Taking Another Shot at the $2700 Threshold _1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices slightly broke through the previous high of $2,721 last Friday. As the bullish momentum waned, failing to form a significant bullish reversal, XAUUSD turned to retreat.

On Monday, gold prices found support and stabilized around the MA89. Despite the stochastic indicators still sloping downward and the Relative Strength Index struggling to break through 50. Therefore, it is difficult to foresee a meaningful rebound in the short term. A closing price below $2,645 may trigger a new round of selling, heading towards the psychological level of $2,600. Breaking below this level could further suppress market sentiment, leading prices to fall towards the $2,560-$2,540 range. If XAUUSD falls further, it will re-enter the bearish channel in the short term.

However, based on market dynamics and the safe-haven property of gold, buying activity may continue to push the market higher ahead of significant data releases, potentially reversing the current downward trend in momentum.

We expect that on the eve of the Fed's interest rate decision, bulls may once again challenge the $2,700 mark, and a sustained breakout above the $2,720 mark would lay the foundation for another historical high.

Overall, after last week's sharp decline, the market is expected to continue to find support and recover before the Fed's interest rate decision, but after the Fed's rate cut this week, gold may face a situation where all bullish factors are exhausted, and market sentiment may remain in a weak range for the rest of the year.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2645

Target Price: 2706

Stop Loss: 2605

Valid Until: December 31, 2024, 23:55:00

Support: 2645/2640/2611

Resistance: 2693/2704/2721

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Last Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report indicating an increase in oil demand for 2025. Meanwhile, OPEC has decided to postpone production increases. However, due to the ongoing production surplus from OPEC+ and the rise in supply from outside the Organization, a significant oversupply situation is anticipated for 2025.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

70.057

Entry Price

65.800

71.550

69.447 +0.305 +0.44%

0.0

Pips

Flat

65.800

Exit Price

70.057

Entry Price

71.550

Fundamentals

Last Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report indicating an upward revision of the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, increasing it from 990,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, primarily driven by Asian countries, particularly influenced by recent stimulus measures in China.

Meanwhile, the IEA noted that despite OPEC+'s decision to postpone its production increase plans and the demand forecast being slightly above expectations, the oil market in 2025 may still face significant oversupply due to ongoing production surpluses from certain OPEC+ member countries, robust supply growth outside the alliance, and moderate global oil demand growth.

The IEA anticipates that even if all OPEC+ production cut plans remain unchanged, next year's supply will exceed demand by approximately 950,000 barrels per day. If the OPEC member countries proceed with their planned production increases starting in April, the oversupply could escalate to 1.4 million barrels per day.

Technical Analysis

In the 1W timeframe, the WTI crude oil prices are consistently reaching lower highs, indicating a clear downward trend. The price is currently testing the support level at 67.00, with the candlestick pattern closely aligning with this support. The likelihood of a breakdown below this level is gradually increasing.

In the 1D timeframe, the short-term candlestick structure for WTI crude oil is exhibiting a distinct triangular convergence pattern. Meanwhile, the current price is situated below the downward trend line, suggesting a weak price movement. There is a potential for further decline towards the 67.00 support level in the short term.

It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 70.10

Target Price: 65.80

Stop Loss: 71.55

Valid until: December 30, 2024 23:00:00

Support: 70.00, 68.76, 67.52

Resistance: 70.92, 71.36, 72.52

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been on a downward trajectory against the US Dollar (USD) for six consecutive days, with market expectations leaning towards the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its dovish stance.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

153.800

Entry Price

156.000

152.500

156.302 -1.112 -0.71%

20.4

Pips

Profit

152.500

154.004

Exit Price

153.800

Entry Price

156.000

The Japanese Yen continued to weaken against its American counterpart on Monday, marking the sixth consecutive day of declines. The Yen touched a three-week low earlier in the Asian session, but even after a brief bounce-back, it has shown little sign of recovery. This persistent weakness can be largely attributed to the widespread expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates steady at its policy meeting later this week, maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy. For investors, the outlook for the JPY appears subdued, given the absence of immediate catalysts for a reversal.

One of the central factors contributing to the Yen's struggles is the elevated yield on US Treasury bonds, which continues to attract capital flows away from the lower-yielding JPY. The yields on 10-year US government bonds recently surged to a three-week high, driven by market sentiment that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to lower rates aggressively in the near term. This has made the US Dollar increasingly attractive, further undermining the Yen, which offers minimal yield in comparison.

The BoJ’s dovish stance has been a persistent weight on the Yen over the past few weeks. While the central bank faces mounting pressure to raise rates due to rising inflation expectations, particularly with consumer prices surpassing the BoJ’s 2% target, there remains significant skepticism in the market regarding the likelihood of a rate hike. The BoJ’s policy outlook continues to reflect caution, with an emphasis on sustaining economic growth, which has led to a lack of conviction among investors about any imminent tightening measures. This has left the Yen vulnerable to continued weakness.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve has demonstrated a more cautious approach toward rate cuts, with traders now pricing in a less aggressive path for monetary easing in 2024. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that market participants are anticipating a 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting this week. However, the prospect of slower inflation progress and the possibility of more gradual rate cuts next year have capped any significant downside for the US Dollar, thereby exacerbating the JPY’s underperformance.

Despite the Yen’s overall weakness, Japan’s economic data released on Monday offered a few glimmers of hope. Core machinery orders in Japan rose by 2.1% in October, and year-on-year growth stood at a healthy 5.6%. These figures suggest that Japan’s industrial sector remains robust, though they failed to reverse the Yen's downward trajectory. Additionally, Japan’s au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for December came in slightly higher at 49.5, an improvement over the previous month, although it remained in contraction territory for the seventh consecutive month.

On the services side, Japan’s PMI for the sector rose to 51.4 in December, from 50.5 in November, while the composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, stood at 50.8. These readings suggest modest growth in the non-manufacturing sector but fail to provide a strong enough catalyst for a significant shift in sentiment regarding the Yen.

Geopolitical risks, such as concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump’s potential trade policy changes and tariffs, could offer some support to the Yen in the short term. As a traditionally safe-haven currency, the Yen tends to benefit from heightened geopolitical uncertainty. However, with the focus on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and BoJ policy meetings, the global risk environment remains in the background, limiting any immediate upside for the Japanese currency.

Technical Analysis

The key technical level to watch in the USD/JPY pair remains the 154.00 threshold. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further bullish momentum, with the next resistance at 154.55 and a psychological target at the 155.00 mark. The daily chart indicates that momentum has shifted in favor of the USD, with oscillators showing positive traction. If USD/JPY breaks beyond these resistance points, the next potential target could be around 154.95.

The bullish trend in USD/JPY remains intact for the short term. The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) continues to provide support from below, while any break below 152.70 would negate the current bullish outlook and shift the focus back to the downside. In such a scenario, the pair could revisit the 151.20 support zone, though this outcome seems unlikely unless broader market conditions shift.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan later this week. The Fed is expected to take a more cautious approach toward rate cuts, while the BoJ's continued dovish stance is likely to keep the Yen under pressure. As such, the USD/JPY pair is expected to remain within its current trading range, with resistance around 154.60 and support at 153.00. However, any deviation from market expectations at these central bank meetings could trigger volatility and push the Yen in either direction.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 153.800

STOP LOSS: 152.500

TAKE PROFIT: 156.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/USD pair rebounded modestly to 1.0510 during the early European session on Monday, but bearish pressures persist.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.05000

Entry Price

1.03000

1.06000

1.04249 +0.00643 +0.62%

24.1

Pips

Profit

1.03000

1.04759

Exit Price

1.05000

Entry Price

1.06000

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading in slightly positive territory near 1.0510 during Monday's early European session. However, the pair remains constrained by a bearish technical setup and a cautious fundamental outlook. Last week’s rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) and its dovish tone have weighed heavily on the euro, with the ECB signaling an openness to further easing measures if required.

The broader Eurozone economy is under pressure due to a combination of factors, including domestic political instability and external risks such as potential U.S. tariff measures under the Trump administration. With economic headwinds intensifying, the ECB has prioritized supporting growth, but this approach has amplified downside risks for the euro.

The ECB’s decision to lower interest rates for the fourth time this year underscores its concern about the sluggish Eurozone economy. This move has placed additional downward pressure on the euro, as a dovish policy stance often makes a currency less attractive to global investors.

Later today, market participants will closely watch the preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which could offer insights into the region's economic health. A weaker-than-expected reading would reinforce concerns about a prolonged slowdown, further bolstering the bearish case for EUR/USD. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to deliver a speech, and traders will scrutinize her remarks for clues on future policy direction.

The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, remains supported by resilient economic data and expectations of a "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the ECB continues to favor the dollar over the euro.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD maintains a bearish outlook. The pair is trading below the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key indicator of medium-term trend direction. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding below the neutral 50 level, currently at 43.35, signaling that bearish momentum remains in play.

The stochastic oscillator has entered overbought territory, suggesting a potential correction lower in the short term. A break below the immediate support at 1.0475 would confirm further downside potential, paving the way for a move toward the psychological level of 1.0300. On the upside, resistance is seen near the 1.0600-1.0610 region, and any move above this range would likely face stiff selling pressure.

The expected trading range for the day is between the support level of 1.0430 and the resistance level of 1.0580. The prevailing trend forecast remains bearish, contingent on the pair staying below the key resistance at 1.0563.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURSUD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.0500

STOP LOSS: 1.0600

TAKE PROFIT : 1.0300

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

GPBUSD continued to face pressure during the European session on Friday, breaking below the 1.2650 level. Data released in the UK showed a 0.1% MoM decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for October, putting additional pressure on the GBP.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.26470

Entry Price

1.30450

1.26250

1.25573 +0.00575 +0.46%

22.0

Pips

Loss

1.26250

1.26248

Exit Price

1.26470

Entry Price

1.30450

Fundamentals

On Data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics on Friday indicated a -0.1% MoM decrease in GDP for October, which was below the expected growth of 0.1%. The primary reasons for the decline were a -0.6% contraction in production output, no growth in the service sector, and a -0.4% decrease in construction output.

Looking at a three-month consecutive period, the GDP for the three months ending in October saw a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous three months. This modest growth was attributed to a 0.1% increase in the service sector and a 0.4% increase in construction output. However, a -0.3% contraction in production output dragged down the overall performance.

Market observers note that despite the UK's GDP falling again in October, this may overstate the recent slowdown in economic momentum. According to our forecast for the UK's annual GDP in 2025, the UK economy will outperform most Western European countries next year. This may say more about the economic health of other regions on the European continent but also largely reflects the impact of recent fiscal stimulus measures in the UK. Compared to the previous Conservative government's budget, public spending has increased by about £60 billion, accounting for more than 2% of GDP. Most of the increased spending will flow to government departments in the form of current funds, much of which will eventually appear as wages. Therefore, the fiscal transmission to broader economic growth may be quite high.

The Bank of England is unlikely to take action due to the unexpected decline in UK output. GDP fell for the second consecutive month in October due to weak consumer demand, coupled with end-of-month concerns about the government's budget. However, according to our forecasts, retail sales and other sectors will rebound in November, ensuring slight overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.

With service sector inflation hovering around 5%, next week's Bank of England meeting may be somewhat inconsequential, as policymakers are expected to once again choose to keep interest rates unchanged until February next year.

Uptrend to Resume with Intact Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern_1

Technical Analysis

The British Pound Sterling was significantly devalued against the US Dollar on Friday due to the weak UK economy, but the uptrend is expected to resume as the "Head and Shoulders" pattern remains unbroken.

If the market can recoup the losses during the day, it may stimulate optimistic sentiment among bulls. In the short term, resistance levels at 1.3045 and 1.3100 may support a bullish retracement.

On the other hand, if the downward trend line is broken again, it will confirm a negative structure. Currently, attention is focused on the minor support level at 1.2615. If this level is breached, it will first retest 1.2486. If this level is also breached, it will resume the overall downtrend from the cluster support area between 1.3433 and 1.2298.

Overall, although the GBPUSD remains in a bearish territory, especially after failing to break through the MA200, the "Head and Shoulders" pattern is intact, and the uptrend is expected to resume after adjustment.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.2635

Target Price: 1.3045

Stop Loss: 1.2625

Deadline: December 28, 2024, 23:55:00

Support: 1.2614/1.2595/1.2561

Resistance: 1.2675/1.2748/1.2810

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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AUD/USD: Can It Recover After Yearly Lows?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Weakening of the CAD against the CHF

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Taking Another Shot at the $2700 Threshold

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Oversupply Pattern Remains Unchanged

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/JPY Bullish Momentum Remains Strong as Yen Struggles Amid US Economic Strength

EUR/USD Struggles Below Key Resistance as ECB Dovishness Caps Potential for Recovery

Uptrend to Resume with Intact Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure