AUD/USD Shows Bullish Trend Amid Economic Turbulence

Forex

Summary:

AUD/USD is trading around $0.6350, showing a slight bullish trend amid decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), along with volatility in the commodity market.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63500

Entry Price

0.64000

0.63200

0.63862 -0.00143 -0.22%

21.1

Pips

Profit

0.63200

0.63711

Exit Price

0.63500

Entry Price

0.64000

Market Overview

The Australian dollar (AUD) is receiving support from the RBA's decision to cut interest rates. Specifically, on February 18, 2025, the RBA reduced interest rates from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first easing since the pandemic in 2020. Despite the cut, the RBA appeared cautious about further rate cuts in the future, which helped the AUD to remain stable near a two-month high.

UBS forecasts that the Australian dollar could fall below $0.60 in the short term but recover to $0.68 by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on expectations that the RBA will refrain from cutting interest rates and that commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper, will remain high, supporting the Australian economy.

On the U.S. side, markets are awaiting the minutes of the Fed's January meeting for clues on the direction of monetary policy amid rising inflation. Recent data showed the consumer price index rose the most in 18 months, which could influence the Fed's decision on whether to maintain or adjust interest rates.

Market Psychology

Market sentiment is currently cautious as investors assess the impact of monetary policy and volatility in commodity markets. The RBA’s rate cut but cautious tone on further cuts has provided stability to the AUD. Slight weakness in the USD ahead of the Fed minutes also supported the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Shows Bullish Trend Amid Economic Turbulence_1

On the chart, the AUD/USD pair has broken the descending resistance line, indicating that an uptrend is forming. Although the recent D1 candlestick showed hesitation with a Spinning Top candlestick pattern, the overall structure still favors the uptrend. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The next important resistance level is located at the 0.6400 area, while important support levels include 0.6324 (9-day EMA) and 0.6307 (14-day EMA).

Trading Recommendations

In the short term, if AUD/USD breaks above the 0.6400 resistance level, the uptrend could resume with the next target at 0.6450. Conversely, if it falls below the 0.6320 support level, the pair could correct towards 0.6300.

Based on fundamental and technical analysis factors, the AUD/USD long trading strategy can be considered with the following parameters:

Entry point: 0.6350

Target profit: 0.6400

Stop loss: 0.6320

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On February 19, 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading around 151.95, with a slight upward trend amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine...

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

151.621

Entry Price

152.000

151.500

150.380 +0.770 +0.51%

12.1

Pips

Loss

151.500

151.499

Exit Price

151.621

Entry Price

152.000

Market Overview

The US dollar (USD) is receiving strong support from safe-haven demand, especially amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Peace talks between the two countries are facing difficulties, leading to concerns about regional and global stability. This has prompted investors to seek the USD as a safe haven, increasing its value in the foreign exchange market.

On the Japanese side, the BoJ is facing pressure from rising inflation and steady economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the Japanese economy is on the path to recovery, with inflation remaining around the 3% threshold. In this situation, former foreign exchange official Hiroshi Watanabe predicted that the BoJ will likely raise interest rates twice more this year, bringing the policy rate from the current 0.5% to 1% by the end of 2025. This move is aimed at narrowing the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, while also supporting the Japanese yen (JPY) from further weakening.

Market Psychology

Market sentiment is currently in a state of high caution. Investors are closely monitoring developments from the Fed meeting, which is scheduled to release the minutes of the January meeting on February 20, 2025. Information from these minutes will provide insight into the direction of US monetary policy in the current context of inflation and economic growth. Uncertainty about the Fed's decisions has caused market volatility, directly affecting the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Meanwhile, expectations of a BoJ rate hike have created buying pressure on the JPY as investors anticipate higher yields in the future. However, the current interest rate differential between the USD and JPY is still supporting the pair's uptrend.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Slightly Gains Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions_1

On the chart, USD/JPY is approaching a key resistance level at 152.55, where the EMA50 converges, adding strength to this level. The RSI is losing positive momentum, suggesting a possible short-term correction before resuming the uptrend. If the price breaks above the resistance level of 152.55, the next target could be 153.00. Conversely, if the price fails to break this level and turns lower, the key support levels to watch are 151.44 and 151.00.

Trading Recommendations

In the short term, if USD/JPY breaks above the resistance level of 152.55, the uptrend could continue with the next target at 153.00. Conversely, if it falls below the support level of 151.44, the pair could correct to 151.00. The volatility of the market during this period requires investors to maintain strict risk management and regularly update market information to make effective trading decisions.

Based on fundamental and technical analysis factors, a USD/JPY long trading strategy can be considered with the following parameters:

Entry point: 151.620

Target profit: 152

Stop loss: 151.5

Traders should closely monitor developments from the Fed and BoJ meetings, as well as the global geopolitical situation, to adjust strategies promptly and manage risks effectively.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The USDCAD traded around 1.4200 on Wednesday. Technical analysis in the 1D timeframe reveals a descending wedge pattern, a bullish formation suggesting a potential upside breakout.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

TRADING

1.42027

Entry Price

1.44700

1.40650

1.41928 +0.00192 +0.14%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.40650

Exit Price

1.42027

Entry Price

1.44700

Fundamentals

Despite the anticipated acceleration in Canadian inflation during January, the Canadian dollar has underperformed relative to other currencies. During the European session on Wednesday, the USDCAD remained below its 100-day SMA for the fourth consecutive day.

Data released on Tuesday revealed that Canada's headline CPI rose to 1.9% YoY in January, up from 1.8% the previous month, aligning with expectations. This increase was primarily driven by rising energy costs, particularly for gasoline and natural gas, while the GST/HST tax cuts implemented in December helped to offset broader price pressures.

Food prices experienced a YoY decline of -0.6%, marking the first annual decrease since May 2017. Notably, the price of food from restaurants fell by -5.1% YoY, reaching a record low.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.1% MoM, rebounding from a 0.4% MoM decline in December. Core inflation indicators strengthened, with the CPI median rising from 2.6% to 2.7% YoY, the CPI trim increasing from 2.5% to 2.7%, and the CPI average climbing from 2.0% to 2.2%.

MARKET WATCH: Despite the uptick in Canadian inflation in January, the rate remains below the Bank of Canada's (BOC) 2% target, which makes it unlikely to constrain the BOC from further easing monetary policy.

Furthermore, the recent recovery of the Canadian dollar appears premature, given the ongoing risks associated with U.S. tariffs. Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are likely to be challenging, and the U.S. dollar still has room to strengthen in the short term. While we maintain a bearish outlook for the USDCAD, this view may take several months to materialize.

Possibility of a Rebound is Increasing_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD traded near 1.4200 on Wednesday, exhibiting a neutral intraday bias. The downside is expected to extend further as long as the 1.4378 resistance level holds, with a break below 1.4150 targeting the 1.3946 cluster support.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index remains above the 30 level, supporting the current bearish outlook. A break below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, potentially signaling an impending upward correction. Meanwhile, the technical structure in the 1D timeframe reveals a descending wedge pattern, a bullish formation suggesting a potential upside breakout.

On the downside, the USDCAD may find immediate support at the lower boundary of the descending wedge, coinciding with the 1.4100 psychological level. A break below this channel would reinforce the bearish bias, potentially driving the USDCAD towards the three-month low of 1.3927, established on November 25.

On the upside, bulls may encounter immediate resistance near the 9-day EMA at 1.4230, which aligns with the upper boundary of the descending wedge. Another resistance level is the 14-day EMA at 1.4263. A break above this critical resistance zone could shift the trend to bullish, potentially propelling bulls towards the 1.4300 psychological level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.4192

Target Price: 1.4470

Stop Loss: 1.4065

Valid Until: March 6, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.4150, 1.4121, 1.4106

Resistance: 1.4214, 1.4246, 1.4271

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Gold prices have risen as market focus returns to an uncertain economic environment. The risk of a full-blown trade war is high, which has spurred investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2939.35

Entry Price

3040.00

2860.00

2934.37 -4.89 -0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2860.00

Exit Price

2939.35

Entry Price

3040.00

Fundamentals

The gold market continues to exhibit safe-haven characteristics, influenced by a confluence of recent factors. Driven by this safe-haven demand, gold futures have surged, approaching their all-time high of US$2,968.50, established on February 11. Spot gold has just reached a new record high of US$2,946.50.

Today, the renewed threat of tariffs from U.S. President Trump has amplified global trade uncertainties, compounded by persistent geopolitical risks, leading to a significant increase in risk-averse investment sentiment.

Furthermore, the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes is drawing considerable market attention, as investors seek insights into future monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, while showing signs of a rebound, remains relatively low, providing some support for gold, which is priced in U.S. dollars. From a fundamental perspective, the continued accumulation of gold by global central banks and institutional investors provides robust underlying support for gold prices, even after recent gains.

Pullbacks Present Buying Opportunities_1

Technical Analysis

The current gold price has retraced somewhat after testing the intraday high of US$2,950. In the 1D timeframe, the short-term SMAs (10-day and 20-day) maintain an upward trajectory and have moved above the longer-term SMAs (50-day and 200-day), indicating that the bullish trend remains robust.

The MACD is currently operating at the highs. Although there is still some risk of a pullback in the short term, if there are signs of an expanding red column, a golden cross is expected to form again, confirming upward momentum. The RSI indicator is slightly in the overbought zone, but no extreme adjustment signals have appeared, indicating that the market is still under relatively healthy bullish control.

Short-term dynamics: In the 4H timeframe, the gold price has gradually rebounded and stabilized above the US$2,900 threshold after a brief correction, indicating the intervention of buying power. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the current volatility range is gradually narrowing, providing directional guidance for the next move.

Trend dynamics: Observing various indicators, bullish momentum continues to dominate. If gold prices can stabilize above US$2,942, a short-term rally is expected; conversely, if a pullback occurs, the US$2,920-US$2,925 range could become a new support zone.

Overall, based on today's relatively loose fundamental environment and the bullish technical pattern, gold remains in an upward trend. It is recommended that investors, while controlling risk, consider buying the dips and waiting for a rebound, but at the same time, pay attention to the breakthrough of key resistance levels and the further impact of macroeconomic data such as the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on market sentiment. Through cautious operation and rigorous risk management, investors are expected to seize the bullish opportunities in this wave of high-level volatility.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2915

Target Price: 3040

Stop Loss: 2860

Valid Until: March 6, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2921, 2915, 2906

Resistance: 2946, 2958, 2963

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Forex

Summary:

Today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points. Market expectations suggest the RBNZ may implement further rate cuts this year, which could exert downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the medium to long term.

SELL NZDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.57129

Entry Price

0.53500

0.59400

0.57567 -0.00046 -0.08%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.53500

Exit Price

0.57129

Entry Price

0.59400

Fundamentals

Earlier today, the RBNZ lowered the OCR by 50 basis points to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. The RBNZ cited easing inflationary pressures, a return of core inflation towards the midpoint of its target range, and subdued economic activity as factors supporting the potential for further easing. These accommodative measures aim to stimulate spending and reduce borrowing costs. However, in the long run, a low-interest-rate environment could diminish the attractiveness of the New Zealand dollar, exerting downward pressure on the medium-term exchange rate.

Furthermore, while recent GDP revisions indicate improvements in certain sectors, such as agriculture and construction, overall economic growth remains under pressure, compounded by a weak labor market. Concurrently, data from Stats NZ reveals that both employment figures and inflation indicators signal sluggish economic activity. The RBNZ emphasized the presence of significant spare capacity, providing policy space for continued interest rate cuts.

Overall, although the current rate cut has provided some short-term support for the New Zealand dollar, market consensus anticipates that the RBNZ may implement further rate reductions later this year to address the risks of economic weakness and a softening labor market. While the easing policy may help support the economy in the short term, it could place the New Zealand dollar under pressure from declining yields in the medium to long term.

Technical Analysis

Hold Bearish Outlook over the Medium to Long Term to Wait for the Conclusion of the Rebound_1

In the 1D timeframe, the NZDUSD exhibited a unidirectional downtrend from October of the previous year to February of this year. Following a substantial decline, the NZDUSD has recently been consolidating. However, upon breaching the 0.5700 level, the short-term upside potential has expanded, with a possible test of the critical resistance at 0.5800.

Currently, despite the NZDUSD's rebound, the upside appears limited, with a narrow range to the 0.5800 resistance level. If the NZDUSD shows signs of weakness near 0.5800, it could resume its prior downward trajectory, potentially retesting the key support at 0.5500.

It is recommended to wait for the conclusion of the rebound and go short at the highs upon observing signs of weakness.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.5720

Target Price: 0.5350

Stop Loss: 0.5940

Valid Until: March 5, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 0.5677, 0.5599, 0.5515

Resistance: 0.5749, 0.5800, 0.5928

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY remains under pressure near 191.50 after the latest UK inflation data showed a stronger-than-expected increase, reinforcing concerns about the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance.

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

191.000

Entry Price

189.000

193.000

190.187 +0.644 +0.34%

200.0

Pips

Profit

189.000

Exit Price

191.000

Entry Price

193.000

The British Pound is struggling to find upside momentum against the Japanese Yen, with GBP/JPY trading near 191.50 in early European hours on Wednesday. This weakness follows the release of the UK’s latest inflation figures, which came in hotter than anticipated, underscoring persistent pricing pressures in the British economy.

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in January, marking an acceleration from December’s 2.5% and surpassing market expectations of 2.8%. Despite the Bank of England’s (BoE) efforts to curb inflation through high interest rates, the reading remains well above the central bank’s 2% target. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also came in strong at 3.7% YoY, in line with forecasts but notably higher than December’s 3.2%. Additionally, services inflation—a key measure closely watched by the BoE—rose sharply to 5.0% YoY from 4.4% in December, reinforcing concerns about sticky price pressures in the UK economy.

On a monthly basis, UK CPI declined by 0.1%, a softer drop than the expected -0.3% contraction. This milder-than-anticipated slowdown suggests that inflationary pressures remain entrenched, complicating the BoE’s potential timeline for rate cuts. Investors have been speculating that the central bank could begin easing monetary policy later in 2024, but with inflation remaining elevated, policymakers may hold rates higher for longer.

While the British Pound remains under pressure, the Japanese Yen is finding support from speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue tightening monetary policy. Despite Japan’s longstanding ultra-loose stance, recent signals from BoJ policymakers suggest a willingness to pivot toward a more hawkish approach, particularly as inflation remains above target.

However, the Yen’s upside potential is tempered by weak economic data from Japan. The latest core Machinery Orders—a key indicator of capital spending—dropped 1.2% month-on-month in December, marking the steepest decline in four months and reversing November’s 3.4% growth. The reading also disappointed market expectations, which had forecast a modest 0.1% gain.

Adding to Japan’s economic woes, the country’s trade deficit widened significantly in January. The deficit ballooned to JPY 2,758.78 billion, far exceeding market projections of JPY 2,100 billion and sharply up from JPY 1,766.54 billion a year earlier. The surge in the deficit was driven by a 16.7% YoY jump in imports, marking the fastest pace of increase in 26 months. In contrast, exports expanded at a slower rate of 7.2% YoY, missing forecasts of 7.9%. This stark divergence between import and export growth underscores Japan’s ongoing economic challenges, which could limit the Yen’s strength in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GBP/JPY continues to show signs of weakness after failing to break above key resistance at 193.30. The pair’s inability to sustain bullish momentum has confirmed a bearish outlook, with current price action hovering near the 191.50 level.

Momentum indicators suggest that further downside is likely, with GBP/JPY expected to target key support levels at 190.60 and 189.70. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both indicate growing bearish momentum, reinforcing the view that additional declines could be on the horizon.

The expected trading range for GBP/JPY in the short term is between 189.70 and 192.00, with a broader bearish bias prevailing unless the pair can decisively break back above the 193.30 resistance zone.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 191.00

STOP LOSS: 193.00

TAKE PROFIT: 189.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold’s rally extends into a third consecutive day, hitting a fresh all-time high above $2,945 amid geopolitical uncertainty and renewed tariff concerns.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2944.99

Entry Price

3000.00

2900.00

2934.37 -4.89 -0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2900.00

Exit Price

2944.99

Entry Price

3000.00

Gold extended its rally for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching a new all-time high as geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. Spot gold (XAU/USD) surged above $2,945 per ounce during the European trading session, driven by renewed concerns over U.S.-Ukraine relations and President Donald Trump’s commitment to aggressive tariffs on key imports.

The latest gains in gold prices come after Tuesday’s daily close above $2,910, a critical technical level that provided fresh bullish momentum. Market participants responded to President Trump’s overnight remarks targeting Ukraine, just hours after the first round of talks between U.S. and Russian officials raised skepticism about a potential peace agreement. In addition, Trump reaffirmed his administration’s intent to impose a 25% tariff on automobile imports, while extending similar duties to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, moves that have amplified investor uncertainty and risk aversion.

The geopolitical landscape remains a key driver for gold’s strength, with traders closely monitoring escalating tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine. Trump’s sharp rhetoric has dampened hopes of diplomatic progress, further intensifying the flight to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Meanwhile, trade policy developments continue to roil global markets. The renewed push for tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals underscores the administration’s aggressive stance on protecting domestic industries. Bloomberg confirmed late Tuesday that Trump’s tariff plan is moving forward, raising concerns over potential retaliation from major trading partners, particularly China and the European Union.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 19:00 GMT. Investors are keen to gauge the central bank’s stance on interest rates, particularly as several Fed officials have recently suggested that rates are appropriate at current levels. However, lingering inflationary pressures could still prompt a more hawkish outlook, potentially affecting gold’s trajectory in the near term.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a weekly high of 4.56%, reflecting investor caution amid shifting economic conditions. Turkish gold miner Koza Altin announced plans to increase production to more than 40 tons over the next five years, according to an exchange filing cited by Bloomberg. Equities across global markets exhibited mixed performance, with European indices under pressure from trade policy concerns while U.S. futures remained relatively stable.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s relentless uptrend continues to show strength, with the market testing key resistance levels. Following the breakout above $2,910, XAU/USD surged into the $2,945 zone, approaching psychological resistance near the $3,000 level. Historical price action suggests that markets often break and close above key resistance levels after multiple attempts, increasing the likelihood of further upside.

A pullback to key support levels, such as the $2,920-$2,910 range, before resuming the uptrend could form an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation setup that may propel prices toward $3,000. A decisive breakout above $2,950, followed by a pullback to retest the level, could offer a buying opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on continued bullish momentum. As long as the bullish structure remains intact, the primary strategy remains favoring buying opportunities at key support levels or after confirmed breakouts above resistance zones. Gold’s strong uptrend, coupled with geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, suggests that further gains could be in store, barring any significant shifts in market sentiment.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2945

STOP LOSS: 2900

TAKE PROFIT: 3000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

AUD/USD Shows Bullish Trend Amid Economic Turbulence

Market Overview

Market Psychology

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/JPY Slightly Gains Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Market Overview

Market Psychology

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Possibility of a Rebound is Increasing

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Pullbacks Present Buying Opportunities

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Hold Bearish Outlook over the Medium to Long Term to Wait for the Conclusion of the Rebound

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

GBP/JPY Weakens After Hot UK Inflation Data and Rising Japan Trade Deficit

Gold Hits Historic High as Market Braces for Fed Minutes and Tariff Fallout

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure