Bearish Momentum Could Drive EUR/NZD to Lower Range

Political

Economic

Summary:

The EURNZD pair reached a local high of 1.8276 on October 30, retreating from this level and forming a head-and-shoulders pattern.

SELL EURNZD

EXP

TRADING

1.79630

Entry Price

1.76000

1.81000

1.79810 +0.00289 +0.16%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.76000

Exit Price

1.79630

Entry Price

1.81000

New Zealand's inflation expectations for Q4 2024 showed mixed results across the one-year and two-year outlooks, according to the latest survey from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The two-year inflation expectations, which are closely monitored as they reflect the RBNZ's expected policy impact on prices, rose slightly to 2.12% in Q4, up from 2.03% in Q3 of this year.

Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations in New Zealand continued to decline, reaching 2.05% in Q4, down from 2.40% in Q3. This reduction signals softening near-term price pressures, potentially affecting the RBNZ’s approach to policy adjustments.

Adding further downward pressure on the NZD, recent economic measures from China have disappointed investor expectations, casting a shadow over demand prospects from New Zealand's largest trading partner. Last week, China announced a 10 trillion yuan debt package but stopped short of direct economic stimulus, leading to market disappointment.

The RBNZ is widely expected to implement a substantial 75 basis point rate cut later this month, reflecting the extended time between RBNZ meetings and recent economic trends. Markets have already fully priced in a 50 basis point reduction, but anticipation of a larger cut could impact NZD’s performance.

In Europe, economists caution that a second Donald Trump term in the U.S., potentially accompanied by a return to protectionist trade policies like new tariffs on European imports, could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate interest rate cuts to mitigate potential growth impacts on the eurozone.

“Renewed trade tensions are likely to weigh materially on growth,” noted Goldman Sachs economists Sven Jari Stehn and Filippo Taddei in a recent report, adding that Trump’s policy stance would likely support lower interest rates across Europe.

Should the U.S. impose tariffs, the already slow growth in the eurozone could face additional setbacks. According to European Commission data, EU exports to the U.S. totaled €502.3 billion in 2023, with machinery and vehicles representing nearly €207.6 billion of this sum. Car exports alone contributed approximately €40 billion, largely from Germany.

The mere prospect of new tariffs on key sectors has already affected German automakers. BMW shares fell by over 8% this week, marking their steepest weekly drop since February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Similarly, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen stocks declined, with Volkswagen reaching new record lows.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Europe’s economic output could see a 0.5% decrease in real GDP, with Germany projected to contract by 0.6% and Italy by 0.3%. Bearish Momentum Could Drive EUR/NZD to Lower Range_1

Bearish Momentum Could Drive EUR/NZD to Lower Range_1

Technical Analysis

The EURNZD pair reached a local high of 1.8276 on October 30, retreating from this level and forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. This bearish formation suggests the pair could extend its decline, especially with increasing pressure on the EUR, possibly pushing prices toward the support area near 1.74850.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages are currently near the price, maintaining a sideways trend throughout the year. This pattern indicates that price action may remain range-bound with alternating rallies and pullbacks, which could add to bearish pressure for the pair.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7963

Target price: 1.7600

Stop loss: 1.8100

Validity: Nov 24, 2024 15:00:00

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The AUDUSD is facing renewed selling pressure, dropping below 0.6500 during the European session on Tuesday. The uncertainty surrounding consumer confidence data from Westpac Banking Corporation, concerns over the Chinese economy, declining commodity prices, and the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar are exerting significant pressure on the Australian dollar.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.65449

Entry Price

0.63630

0.66980

0.64687 +0.00116 +0.18%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.63630

Exit Price

0.65449

Entry Price

0.66980

Fundamentals

The AUDUSD faced selling pressure for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, retreating to below the mid-0.6500 range during the early European session. Factors such as uncertainty surrounding consumer confidence data from Westpac Banking Corporation, concerns over the Chinese economy, declining commodity prices, and the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar have exerted significant pressure on the Australian dollar.

Data from Westpac Banking Corporation indicates a robust rebound in Australian consumer confidence for November, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index rising by 5.3% MoM to reach 94.6. This marks a 14.4% increase from the mid-year low, leaving it just 5.4 points below the neutral level of 100.

The primary driver of this improvement is the enhanced optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook. The index measuring "economic outlook for the next 12 months" surged by 8.7% to 100.9, marking the first optimistic reading (above 100) since the recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, personal financial confidence has also strengthened, with the index for "household finances over the next 12 months" increasing by 4.4% to 104.1. Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index fell by 7.2% to 120.5, indicating that confidence in the labor market has reached its highest level since April 2023.

In November, we observed three significant trends in consumer confidence. Firstly, prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision, early surveys indicated a consumer confidence index of 99.7, reflecting a notable sense of optimism. Secondly, the consumer confidence index remained unaffected by the RBA's decision to maintain interest rates. Lastly, following the announcement of the U.S. election results, there was a sharp decline in the consumer confidence index, with an average of 91.1 in the latter half of the survey. This indicates that the final reading for November exhibited an unusually wide fluctuation range of ±5%, suggesting a degree of uncertainty.

Furthermore, given China's pivotal role as Australia's largest trading partner, any economic changes in China will have a significant impact on the performance of the Australian dollar.

On Monday, data revealed that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 0.3% in October, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% and slightly declining from September's 0.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, saw a modest rise from 0.1% to 0.2%, indicating weak underlying inflation momentum. The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.3%, further suggesting sluggish domestic demand. Since March of last year, China's CPI growth has hovered around zero, raising concerns about a prolonged deflationary trend and lackluster domestic consumption. From January to October, the CPI has cumulatively increased by just 0.3%, significantly below the government's annual target of 3%. These figures underscore the stagnation in consumer activity and insufficient demand to drive price increases.

Meanwhile, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected, declining from -2.8% to -2.9% YoY, marking 25 consecutive months of negative growth, which exceeded the market's forecast of -2.5%. This indicates ongoing price pressures within the production sector.

For the Australian dollar, this week is also pivotal as Australia is set to release third-quarter wage statistics and overall employment data, which are crucial for assessing the RBA's future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock's participation in the regulatory group may provide new insights into the RBA's perspective on inflation and economic demand.

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD is showing a mild bullish momentum in the 1D timeframe, which is diminishing as the market has breached the short-term support level of 0.6551. Meanwhile, the decline in the relative strength index indicates that new selling pressure is emerging. A further drop below 0.6511 would reinstate the downtrend that commenced from 0.6941.

On the upside, a rebound that surpasses 0.6687 would target the 61.8% retracement level of 0.6777, corresponding to the range between 0.6941 and 0.6511.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.6595

Target Price: 0.6363

Stop Loss: 0.6698

Deadline: November 27, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 0.6510, 0.6490, 0.6436

Resistance: 0.6600, 0.6630, 0.6650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 12, 2024 at 8:20 PM, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading at 1.0625. After a sharp decline, the pair is showing signs of a slight recovery thanks to the support from the CCI indicator and the accumulation trend on the Bollinger Bands...

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.06252

Entry Price

1.06550

1.06000

1.05427 +0.00060 +0.06%

25.2

Pips

Loss

1.06000

1.05998

Exit Price

1.06252

Entry Price

1.06550

On November 12, 2024, EUR/USD was trading at 1.0625, with signs of consolidation around strong support. The recent decline in the EUR was mainly due to slower-than-expected economic growth in the Eurozone and pressure from the strengthening of the USD. However, the USD is now starting to come under pressure due to uncertainty in the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy and complex geopolitical factors, causing investors to consider switching to the EUR.

In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled that it will maintain a stable monetary policy to support the economy, which helps to strengthen confidence in the EUR in the medium and long term. At the same time, the inflation index in Europe is gradually stabilizing, creating favorable conditions for businesses and investors. These factors have contributed to creating a positive sentiment towards the EUR, supporting the short-term BUY trend in the EUR/USD pair.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is cautious for the USD as investors are concerned about the possibility that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes due to signs of slowing US economic growth. Recent data on the US domestic employment situation and consumption have shown weakness, leading to expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious stance in the coming period. This has reduced the attractiveness of the USD and prompted investors to consider shifting capital to safer assets, including the EUR.

In addition, the unstable geopolitical situation in key regions of the world, especially in the Middle East, also contributed to the increased uncertainty in the market, adding momentum to the trend of turning to the EUR as a safe haven. Combined with the stable economic outlook in Europe, this created a favorable sentiment for the BUY trend in EUR/USD.

Technical analysis

The EUR/USD 15-minute chart shows positive signals for a short-term uptrend. The CCI is currently at 66.21, indicating bullish momentum as the CCI moves out of the oversold zone. If the CCI continues this trend, it will reinforce the BUY trend as buying pressure starts to return to the market.

The Bollinger Bands chart shows that EUR/USD is hovering near the middle band, with the upper and lower bands narrowing, signaling that the market is in a consolidation phase. If the price breaks above the middle band and is likely to reach the upper band, this will be a positive signal for the next rally. The narrowing Bollinger Bands are also an indicator that more volatility may be coming in the near future, and if the price can break above the resistance at 1.0650, the uptrend could be activated.

The Ichimoku indicator shows that the price is trying to break above the Kumo cloud, with the Tenkan-Sen line crossing above the Kijun-Sen line, a signal that the uptrend is forming. If EUR/USD can break above the cloud and stay above it, it will be a key signal supporting a short-term rally.

Trading Recommendations

Based on technical signals and economic factors, investors can consider the following trading strategies:

Entry: Buy at 1.0625 if price stays above the Bollinger Bands average.

Take Profit: Set target profit at 1.0655, near important resistance level.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss at 1.0600 to protect capital in case of market reversal.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 12, 2024 at 8:20 PM, the CAD/CHF currency pair was trading around 0.6317. The current development shows that the CAD is still maintaining its strength thanks to the support of positive economic data in Canada, despite the recent decline in oil prices...

BUY CADCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.63170

Entry Price

0.63350

0.63000

0.62996 -0.00003 0.00%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.63000

0.63295

Exit Price

0.63170

Entry Price

0.63350

On November 12, 2024, the CAD/CHF pair was trading around 0.6317, reflecting the stable trend of the CAD despite the slight decline in crude oil prices. Currently, WTI oil prices are around $68/barrel, down about 5% from last week, but the CAD is still supported by the strength of the Canadian economy. As a major oil exporter, Canada has been under pressure from the decline in oil prices, but other economic data has helped to mitigate this negative impact. The recent report showed that Canada's third-quarter GDP growth reached 2.5%, which was lower than the expectation of 3%, but still showed that the country's economy is expanding in the current difficult conditions. In addition, the Canadian labor market continues to improve with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 5.6%, increasing investor confidence in the CAD.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is experiencing a period of economic stability with a conservative monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Although the Swiss economy is less volatile, the lack of a strong CHF indicates that investors are looking to markets with higher potential returns such as the CAD. These factors have created a positive environment for the CAD/CHF pair, increasing the expectation of a BUY trend.

Market psychology

Current market sentiment favors a BUY CAD/CHF trend as investors look forward to a strong economic recovery from Canada. Canadian macroeconomic indicators such as consumer confidence and business confidence have improved significantly in recent months, with the business confidence index reaching 58 points, up from the 6-month average of 52 points. This shows that businesses and investors are confident in the growth potential of the Canadian economy, despite the volatility in the energy market.

In addition, the decline in oil prices has affected the Canadian economy, but the impact has not been as severe as expected, thanks to the stability of domestic consumption and demand for non-oil exports. Meanwhile, the CHF tends to be negatively affected by the lack of monetary policy changes from the SNB. Investors are shifting capital flows to higher-yielding assets, while the CHF remains stable without strong growth momentum. This increases the demand for CAD/CHF, supporting the growth trend of this currency pair.

Technical analysis

On the 15-minute chart of CAD/CHF, technical indicators are all showing positive signals for the BUY trend. The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is currently at 80.71, near overbought levels, however the %K line is still above the %D line, indicating that the uptrend still has momentum and there are no signs of a strong reversal. If the %K line continues to stay above the %D line, this will reinforce the buy signal for this currency pair, with the possibility that the price may continue to move higher in the short term.

The Bollinger Bands chart on the M15 timeframe shows that the bands are showing signs of narrowing, reflecting the decrease in volatility after a bearish cycle. The current price is oscillating around the Bollinger Bands' average line, and if the price can break above the middle band, it is likely to continue towards the upper band, indicating a potential bullish trend. The narrowing Bollinger Bands are also a signal of increased volatility, if the price breaks above the important resistance level at 0.6330, a strong bullish trend is likely.

According to the Ichimoku indicator, the Tenkan-Sen line has crossed above the Kijun-Sen line and is moving upwards, a signal that the uptrend is forming and could continue. The Kumo cloud is currently showing green above, reinforcing the short-term uptrend. If the price can hold above the cloud, this will be a positive signal supporting the decision to buy CAD/CHF.

Trading Recommendations

With positive signals from technical analysis and support from the macroeconomic backdrop, a short-term trading strategy for CAD/CHF could include:

Entry: Buy at 0.6317 if price continues to hold above the moving average.

Take Profit: Set target profit at 0.6335, where there is an important short-term resistance level.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss at 0.6300 to protect capital in case of market reversal.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

As at September, the unemployment rate in the UK surged to 4.3% over the past three months, while the growth rate of average earnings exceeded expectations. Following the release of disappointing employment data, the GBPUSD fell below 1.2800.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.28150

Entry Price

1.25700

1.30500

1.26323 +0.00149 +0.12%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.25700

Exit Price

1.28150

Entry Price

1.30500

Fundamentals

The British pound weakened against major currencies on Tuesday. Data revealed that the unemployment rate in the UK rose beyond expectations, while wage growth slowed, albeit slightly below forecasts. Following the release of this data, the GBPUSD fell from 1.2831 to a three-month low of 1.2798.

Sub-indicators indicated a slight softening in the UK job market for October, with employment numbers decreasing by 5,000 month-on-month, reflecting a change of -0.0%, bringing the total to 30.4 million. Compared to the same period last year, employment figures showed an increase of 95,000, representing a growth rate of 0.3%. However, the number of unemployment benefit claims rose by 26,700 to 1.806 million, which was below the anticipated increase of 30,500.

In the three months as at September, the unemployment rate climbed from 4.0% to 4.3%, surpassing the expected rate of 4.1%. In terms of income, total average earnings, including bonuses, grew by 4.8%, exceeding the previous increase of 3.9% and market predictions. Excluding bonuses, average earnings also rose by 4.8%, slightly lower than the prior 4.9% increase, yet still above the expected 4.7%.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at XTB, stated in a report, "The rise in unemployment rates may prompt the market to increase its pricing for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BOE) next month."

MARKET WATCH: BOE officials have been closely monitoring wage growth when making decisions about interest rates, as wage growth is a primary driver of inflationary pressures in the services sector. Compared to other G7 nations, the BOE's approach to monetary easing has been more gradual, largely due to the elevated inflation in the services sector.

It is noteworthy whether investors will ramp up their bets on a rate cut by the BOE due to a slowdown in the labor market, or if they will reduce their bets in the event that wage growth exceeds expectations. Currently, market participants are slightly leaning towards a further 25 basis point cut at the monetary policy meeting in December. Last week, the BOE also lowered its key lending rate by 25 basis points, while favoring a more gradual approach to policy easing.

Market Expectations for BOE Rate Cut Heat Up_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD continues to decline as it fails to maintain the 200-day SMA. Currently, the GBPUSD has fallen below the 1.2800 threshold, reaching a nearly three-month low, which shifts the overall trend to a negative outlook and establishes a bearish reversal pattern.

As the Relative Strength Index breaks below the 40 level, it indicates that bearish momentum has commenced. A break of the 61.8% retracement level from 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732 will pave the way towards the critical support level at 1.2298. During this period, the August low of 1.2665 will serve as a significant buffer for the pound bulls.

On the upside, a breakout above the resistance level at 1.3008 will initially shift the intraday bias to neutral, followed by a potential consolidation phase.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.2850

Target Price: 1.2570

Stop Loss: 1.3050

Deadline: November 27, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 1.2776, 1.2665, 1.2613

Resistance: 1.2875, 1.3008, 1.3048

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

With Trump's victory in the U.S. elections, Bitcoin has entered a bull market, experiencing a significant surge over seven consecutive days, with an increase nearing US$20,000. This current bull run for Bitcoin is anticipated to continue until January next year when Trump assumes office, with the primary target set to surpass US$100,000.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

PENDING

80500.0

Entry Price

99000.0

75200.0

90594.1 +334.1 +0.37%

Pips

PENDING

75200.0

Exit Price

80500.0

Entry Price

99000.0

Fundamentals

On November 6, following Donald Trump's announcement of victory in the U.S. elections, Bitcoin surged to a historic high, reaching US$75,409. This upward trend continued for several days, accumulating an increase of nearly US$20,000 and consistently setting new records, with the momentum persisting today.

In response to Trump's presidential win, the Bitcoin spot ETF also marked a significant milestone. With substantial capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market, the total amount invested in Bitcoin spot ETFs reached US$1.37 billion last Thursday, setting a record for the largest single-day inflow in history. Since its inception at the beginning of the year, the cumulative inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached US$26.22 billion.

Regarding Bitcoin's sustained surge, Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini exchange, emphasized over the weekend that the driving force behind Bitcoin's price surpassing US$80,000 is the stable demand from ETFs rather than retail investor sentiment. This provides a solid foundation for the upward movement, and this is just the beginning.

We believe that this bullish trend for Bitcoin could extend until January next year when Trump takes office, with Bitcoin potentially reaching over US$100,000, and possibly even US$200,000.

Technical Analysis

As at November 12, during the European trading session, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 6.32%, briefly reaching US$90,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading and consolidating just below US$90,000.

In the 1W timeframe, Bitcoin officially broke through the previous consolidation range last week, opening up further upward potential. However, Bitcoin is currently approaching the Fibonacci extension level of US$89,602, which is also just below the significant US$90,000 threshold, leading to increased upward pressure in the short term and the possibility of a brief consolidation phase.

At this point, if Bitcoin fails to break through the US$90,000 threshold, it may retrace towards the US$80,000 range to build momentum for a continued upward breakout. Conversely, if it surpasses US$90,000, the first target for upward movement would be the US$100,000 threshold, followed by a subsequent target of US$115,000.

In the short term, it is not recommended to chase the uptrend but to wait for a pullback in Bitcoin's price, looking for stabilization signals before going long.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 80500

Target Price: 99000

Stop Loss: 75200

Deadline: November 26, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 80000, 78500, 73787

Resistance: 90000, 100000, 115000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The EURUSD has fallen to its lowest point in four and a half months. Given the impact of interest rate differentials on the exchange rate, the euro may struggle to recover.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.06169

Entry Price

1.03500

1.07790

1.05427 +0.00060 +0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.03500

Exit Price

1.06169

Entry Price

1.07790

Fundamentals

On Tuesday during the European session, the EURUSD was consolidating below 1.0650. Disappointing German economic data, potential tariff threats from U.S. presidential candidate Trump, and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to exert pressure on the EURUSD.

As for ECB, Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council from Finland, reiterated in today's meeting that the direction of monetary easing is "clear." However, he emphasized that the "pace and extent" of these reductions will be determined by three factors assessed at each ECB meeting: the inflation outlook, underlying inflation trends, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.

Rehn noted that the ECB could potentially lower the deposit rate (currently at 3.25%) to a neutral level. If the data supports it, such an adjustment may occur by late winter or early spring.

"Current market data and simple mathematical calculations seem to suggest that we will exit the restrictive zone at some point during the spring or winter of next year (2025)," Rehn stated. "But this is merely my observation, not a commitment."

MARKET WATCH: Following the pessimistic data from the ZEW survey in Germany and the Eurozone, the EURUSD remains in a downward trend. As of the time of writing, the EURUSD has declined by 0.31% on the day, trading close to 1.0615.

The short-term interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S. remains "exceptionally wide," favoring the U.S. dollar. The ECB will need to implement further rate cuts to support the Eurozone economy, as Germany's fiscal situation appears unlikely to improve significantly ahead of the federal elections.

We anticipate that the ECB will lower rates by 50 basis points in December. Only position adjustments may drive a strengthening of the euro this week, but any gains are expected to be limited.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has depreciated by 660 points since October, yet there remains potential for further declines.

The EURUSD has experienced significant drops this week, breaking the June low of 1.0670. It is anticipated to reach a low of 1.0450 later this month, but this is not the final target; based on previous strategic positioning, our ultimate target price is set at 1.0350, which is 300 points lower than the current exchange rate. Therefore, the EURUSD may continue to decline before any buying interest emerges.

Conversely, the U.S. Dollar Index is expected to maintain its focus on the 109.00-110.00 range.

This is the "imbalance phenomenon" we have been monitoring over the past few months, which may be rectified later this year.

Structurally, we anticipate the U.S. dollar continuing to rise until the end of 2024, followed by a high-level correction in early 2025.

Overall, our target for the EURUSD remains at 1.0350, with key support levels at 1.0615 and 1.0450, which will soon transition into resistance levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.0650

Target Price: 1.0350

Stop Loss: 1.0779

Deadline: November 27, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 1.0615, 1.0576, 1.0450

Resistance: 1.0729, 1.0763, 1.0797

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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