Bitcoin Growing Adoption Likely to Fuel Uptrend

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin recently touched a local low of $86,500, a level where the price has previously rebounded twice, this area coincides with the 100-period moving average.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

88235.8

Entry Price

98000.0

84000.0

90663.6 +403.6 +0.45%

0.0

Pips

Flat

84000.0

Exit Price

88235.8

Entry Price

98000.0

In the United States, Pennsylvania legislators have introduced a new bill to the state Congress that could position Pennsylvania as one of the pioneering states to integrate Bitcoin into its reserves. The bill, filed in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, aims to officially recognize Bitcoin's potential as a wealth-generation asset, setting the stage for the state to incorporate the digital currency within its treasury holdings.

According to reports, the initiative by Pennsylvania lawmakers aligns with a broader global trend, where countries and major corporations have increasingly adopted Bitcoin as part of their reserve strategy. This approach has shown promising results, particularly in light of Bitcoin's recent surge above $90,000, a milestone that has contributed to its record-breaking market capitalization and reinforced its role as a valuable asset.

Representative Mike Cabell, one of the bill’s proponents, explained that the proposal seeks to include Bitcoin in Pennsylvania’s financial strategy as a hedge against inflation. “Bitcoin offers a stable foundation in times of economic uncertainty,” Cabell said, citing examples like BlackRock and Fidelity, both of which view cryptocurrency as a valuable asset for protecting portfolios against economic volatility.

If approved, the Pennsylvania Treasury would be authorized to allocate up to 10% of its General Fund, Emergency Fund, and other accounts into Bitcoin, positioning the digital asset as part of its financial reserves.

Bitcoin recently crossed a major threshold with a market cap above $1.8 trillion, elevating it to the seventh-largest global asset, ahead of corporate giants like Saudi Aramco. This new peak comes just days after Bitcoin surpassed silver in terms of market capitalization, marking another milestone in its growth trajectory.

In the U.S., the recent electoral victory of Donald Trump has fueled optimism around pro-crypto policies, driving Bitcoin’s price higher in recent weeks. This bullish momentum has also been bolstered by persistent inflation concerns and anticipation of an upcoming interest rate cut, which spurred another rally on Wednesday.

On the same day, U.S.-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with direct exposure to Bitcoin recorded inflows of $510 million, marking their sixth consecutive session of net capital gains, according to SoSoValue data. Over the past period, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted more than $4.6 billion in inflows, pushing the cumulative total to $28 billion since January.

Trading volume also surged, highlighting increased investor interest and active market engagement. On Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs collectively saw trading volumes of $8 billion, amassing nearly half a trillion dollars in volume since their initial launch, as reported by The Block.

Wednesday’s trading volume ranked as the fourth-largest for Bitcoin ETFs on record, largely fueled by BlackRock’s IBI, which alone handled over $5 billion in daily trades. Bitcoin Growing Adoption Likely to Fuel Uptrend_1

Bitcoin Growing Adoption Likely to Fuel Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin recently touched a local low of $86,500, a level where the price has previously rebounded twice. This area coincides with the 100-period moving average, from which Bitcoin could potentially resume its upward momentum. The 200-period moving average, positioned just below at around $82,000, further supports this bullish setup.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approached the 40 mark, suggesting a possible waning of seller strength. This indicator signals that Bitcoin may be poised for a new bullish impulse from this zone, with the next upward target set around $98,000. Market drivers supporting Bitcoin’s upward trend remain intact, maintaining a favorable outlook for continued growt

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 88200

Target price: 98000

Stop loss: 84000

Validity: Nov 25, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

After a strong rally, the USDX has topped out and is now under bearish pressure as technical signals point to a possible short-term correction. At the same time, market sentiment towards the USD is weakening as investors worry about the US economic outlook and easing inflationary pressures....

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

106.360

Entry Price

106.000

106.620

106.550 -0.030 -0.03%

26.0

Pips

Loss

106.000

106.620

Exit Price

106.360

Entry Price

106.620

The USDX has seen a significant rally over the past few days, largely driven by solid economic data in the US and safe-haven flows into the USD. However, at the moment, the USDX is hovering around 106.36 and showing signs of weakness due to internal factors and technical pressures. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that annual inflation fell to 3.4%, lower than the forecast of 3.6%, reducing the possibility of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates at the upcoming meetings.

In addition, recent retail sales data also missed expectations, adding to concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending - the main driver of the US economy. These factors have put pressure on the USD, while investors have begun to consider other alternatives with more attractive returns.

Market psychology

Market sentiment towards the USD has shifted from positive to neutral, even negative, as economic data has become less supportive of the currency. Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged or even consider cutting them in 2024 are gradually increasing. This has weakened the safe-haven flow into the USD, especially as risk assets such as stocks and commodities show signs of attracting investors again.

In addition, the cautious sentiment also stems from political uncertainties in the US, including budget negotiations and the possibility of a government shutdown, which could undermine confidence in the USD. In this context, the USDX index is likely to continue to adjust downward in the short term.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart, USDX is forming a clear bearish correction pattern. The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is currently at 15.38, in the oversold zone, but the %K line remains below the %D line, indicating that selling pressure is still strong. This is a sign of continuation of the short-term downtrend.

Bollinger Bands show that price is breaking the middle band and moving down to the lower band, reflecting a continued bearish correction. If price fails to return to the resistance level at the middle band (106.62), the downtrend will be reinforced and likely to extend to lower support levels.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator shows that USDX is currently below the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines, while the Kumo cloud is acting as a strong resistance zone. The price remaining below the cloud suggests that the short-term downtrend is still dominant, with the possibility of breaking the support level of 106.30 to continue falling further.

Trading Recommendations

Based on technical signals and market sentiment, a SELL strategy for USDX can be applied as follows:

Entry: Sell at 106.36 as price continues to stay below the middle line of Bollinger Bands.

Take Profit: Set target profit at 106.00, near important support level.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss at 106.62 to protect capital in case price reverses to the upside.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

After a strong intraday rally, the pair is showing signs of weakness as it hits a near-term resistance level. Technical signals from Bollinger Bands and Stochastic point to a possible short-term correction, especially as the AUD is supported by positive economic data from Australia...

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.63070

Entry Price

1.62800

1.63450

1.62941 +0.00007 +0.00%

17.4

Pips

Loss

1.62800

1.63244

Exit Price

1.63070

Entry Price

1.63450

The EUR/AUD pair is currently trading around 1.6317 after hitting a session high of 1.6335. The recent appreciation of the EUR was largely driven by expectations of a dovish monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the rally has stalled as the AUD has received strong support from Australian economic data. Specifically, the unemployment rate in Australia last month fell to 3.4%, lower than the forecast of 3.6%, along with a strong business confidence index. This has strengthened the position of the AUD against the EUR, especially in the context of the market gradually focusing on economies with positive growth prospects.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone continues to face economic problems such as slow growth and inflationary pressures. The region’s manufacturing PMI remained below 50 last month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. These factors reduce the attractiveness of the EUR, creating opportunities for the AUD to gain dominance in the EUR/AUD pair.

Market psychology

Market sentiment is currently biased towards the AUD as investors are bullish on the Australian economic outlook in the short term. Positive economic data, combined with stability in commodity markets (including iron ore, Australia’s main export), has increased the attractiveness of the AUD. In contrast, the EUR is facing pressure from domestic issues in the Eurozone, including slow growth and uncertainty in the energy sector.

In addition, the slowdown in the EUR’s rally was also fueled by expectations that the ECB would not raise interest rates further in the near future, which reduced investor confidence in the EUR and created additional selling momentum for EUR/AUD.

Technical analysis

The EUR/AUD M15 chart shows clear signals for a short-term downtrend. The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is currently at 89.39, in the overbought zone, but the %K line has started to cross below the %D line. This is a strong sell signal, indicating that buying pressure is weakening and selling pressure may increase in the following sessions.

Bollinger Bands show that the price is currently hovering near the upper band and is likely to turn back towards the middle band, reflecting a short-term bearish correction. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, signaling increased volatility, but if the price continues to move below the Bollinger Bands moving average, the downtrend will be reinforced.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator also provides negative signals. The Tenkan-Sen line has crossed below the Kijun-Sen line, indicating that selling pressure is increasing. The current price is just below the strong resistance zone of the Kumo cloud, which could create bearish pressure in the short term. If the price continues to break below the support level of 1.6300, the possibility of further declines will be extended.

Trading Recommendations

Based on the technical signals and current market scenario, the SELL strategy for EUR/AUD can be applied as follows:

Entry: Sell at 1.6315 as price shows signs of further decline.

Take Profit : Set target to take profit at 1.6280, near important support level.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss at 1.6345 to protect capital in case the market turns bullish.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 while slightly revising the 2025 projection downward.

BUY WTI

EXP

TRADING

69.143

Entry Price

74.000

65.300

66.984 +0.116 +0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

65.300

Exit Price

69.143

Entry Price

74.000

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil traded near $68.00 on Thursday, oscillating amid supply-demand imbalances and institutional activity. While prices have recovered slightly, the strong USD may limit further gains.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upward its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 in its latest monthly report, while slightly downgrading its 2025 projection due to the economic slowdown's impact on consumption.

The IEA now expects global oil demand to increase by 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 862,000 bpd. The increase is attributed to stronger-than-expected gasoline deliveries in OECD countries.

For 2025, the growth forecast was trimmed slightly from 998,000 bpd to 990,000 bpd. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the nearly 2 million bpd growth seen last year, as the post-pandemic demand surge wanes, and the rapid adoption of clean energy transportation technologies continues to mitigate oil consumption growth.

Looking ahead, WTI prices may be guided by the upcoming US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) crude inventory report, which is expected to show an increase of 750,000 barrels, down from the previously anticipated 2.01 million barrels. A smaller-than-expected build or an unexpected drawdown could support additional price gains, while a larger-than-anticipated build might pull prices back to the range's lower support or below.

Market Poised for Recovery as Long and Short Positions Cleared_1

Technical Analysis

Recent institutional operations have created volatility, causing WTI crude to break below a "head-and-shoulders" pattern in the 4-hour chart. This has led to a clearing of both long and short positions, leaving the market in a consolidation phase. Key support lies near $66.85, with resistance around the $73.00 range.

The price formed a "reversal star" pattern after testing the range's bottom, suggesting potential for a rebound.

However, technical indicators are sending mixed signals. The 100 SMA remains below the 200 SMA, indicating the path of least resistance may still be downward, or that the support level is more likely to break rather than hold, which could lead to another price drop that matches the chart's formation height.

The stochastic oscillator is climbing, pointing to residual upward pressure, while the MACD is nearing overbought territory, signaling that buying momentum may soon wane. The RSI, however, has more room to rise, suggesting bullish momentum could push prices toward the $73.00 psychological level or the dynamic turning point of the moving averages.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 68.00

Target Price: 74.00

Stop Loss: 65.30

Valid Until: Nov 29, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 67.73, 66.84, 66.15

Resistance: 68.98, 70.42, 72.60

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

Fears of inflation driven by Trump-era policies have pushed USDJPY above 156.00 for the first time in months, drawing market attention to possible intervention signals from Japan. A Bank of America survey predicts the dollar will outperform the broader market by 2025.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

155.994

Entry Price

159.300

152.000

154.434 +0.192 +0.12%

0.0

Pips

Flat

152.000

Exit Price

155.994

Entry Price

159.300

Fundamentals

During Thursday's Asian session, the yen weakened slightly against most G10 and Asian currencies. USDJPY climbed above 156.00 for the first time since late July, marking a three-month high. The dollar's strength is fueled by speculation that policies from US President-elect Donald Trump will spark sharp inflation and lead to higher interest rates, thus boosting the USD.

A Bank of America survey conducted in November among global fund managers reveals optimism about the dollar's performance. Policies such as trade tariffs proposed by Trump are expected to bolster inflation and result in the Fed cutting rates less than previously anticipated. The USD is expected to perform strongly in 2025 following Trump's victory in the US presidential election.

45% of post-election survey respondents anticipate the dollar outperforming the broader market, compared to 28% favoring gold and 20% expecting the yen to excel. However, 51% of fund managers view the dollar as overvalued, a 5% increase from the previous month.

Trump's policies are perceived as adding strain to the global economy, with Japan among the affected nations. Markets are now closely monitoring Japanese authorities for verbal intervention, as officials may intensify warnings about yen depreciation to curb USDJPY's upward momentum.

Bulls Unfazed by Potential Japanese Intervention_1

Technical Analysis

USDJPY's surge during Thursday's European session has reignited optimism for further upside continuation from the rally that began in mid-September. Yen bears appear unbothered by the likelihood of Japanese intervention.

From a technical perspective, after breaking through the 155.20 resistance level, the bullish trend remains intact despite overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the stochastic oscillator. The next target zone lies at 158.50-159.00, marking the upper boundary of an ascending channel. A pullback toward 152.50 is likely if the bulls encounter resistance near these levels.

On the downside, a break below the minor support at 153.40 could neutralize the immediate bullish bias. However, as long as the key support at 151.27 holds, the short-term outlook remains bullish.

Overall, USDJPY has returned to an uptrend, but sustained gains will depend on the bulls defending the 151.27 level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 155.00

Target Price: 159.30

Stop Loss: 152.00

Valid Until: Nov 29, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 154.90, 154.34, 153.30

Resistance: 156.92, 157.88, 158.33

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Australia's employment growth in October fell short of expectations, ending four consecutive months of significant increases. While the unemployment rate held steady, the labor market's underlying trends remain resilient.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.64684

Entry Price

0.62290

0.66980

0.64689 +0.00118 +0.18%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.62290

Exit Price

0.64684

Entry Price

0.66980

Fundamentals

Australia's employment increased moderately by 15,900 in October, a 0.1% rise month-on-month, lower than the expected 25,000. This marks the slowest job growth in recent months, contrasting with the stronger six-month average growth of 0.3% per month.

Full-time positions rose by 97,000, while part-time positions increased by 62,000, both contributing to the overall employment increase.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, aligning with expectations, while the participation rate dipped slightly from 67.2% to 67.1%.

Unemployment numbers rose by 1.3% MoM, while the labor force grew by 83,000. Hours worked increased marginally by 0.1% MoM, reflecting only a slight rise in overall labor demand.

Despite the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% for three consecutive months, it is 0.6 percentage points higher than the June 2023 low of 3.5%. However, it remains significantly lower than the pre-pandemic level of 5.2% in March 2020.

The slowdown in job growth suggests the labor market may be stabilizing, consistent with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) restrictive policy stance aimed at cooling demand.

Market Outlook: The October economic data indicates the RBA is unlikely to cut rates in the near term. RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that while hiring has slowed, the job market remains tight. The Wage Price Index for Q3 was unchanged at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, below the forecast of 0.9%, while annual wage growth slowed from 4.1% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q3.

The probability of a rate cut by the RBA is now seen increasing only in Q1 2024. Markets await the release of October inflation data on November 27 to adjust forecasts for the official cash rate.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD currently exhibits a bearish bias. A break below the 0.6511 support level has resumed the downtrend from 0.6941. Further declines are expected towards the 0.6348–0.6269 support range.

Among non-USD currencies, the Australian dollar has outperformed other majors due to the RBA's decision to hold off on rate cuts. However, given the strong USD, the short-term outlook remains bearish as long as AUDUSD remains below the 0.6687 resistance level.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. The corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is extending, with a renewed downward leg underway. The decline is expected to expand further towards the 0.6269 level as the sideways trading continues.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.6515

Target Price: 0.6269

Stop Loss: 0.6698

Valid Until: Nov 29, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 0.6438, 0.6379, 0.6348

Resistance: 0.6492, 0.6513, 0.6543

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The Eurozone has implemented three rate cuts this year, with the ECB president signaling further cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has kept rates steady and hinted at potential hikes. These contrasting monetary policies suggest a bearish outlook for EURJPY.

SELL EURJPY

EXP

TRADING

163.912

Entry Price

160.200

166.150

162.815 +0.300 +0.18%

0.0

Pips

Flat

160.200

Exit Price

163.912

Entry Price

166.150

Fundamentals

Eurozone:

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates three times this year. Currently, the three key rates—the main refinancing operations rate, the marginal lending facility rate, and the deposit facility rate—stand at 3.4%, 3.65%, and 3.25%, respectively. ECB President Christine Lagarde has hinted at further rate cuts during the December policy meeting, although the pace and extent of future adjustments remain unclear.

Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB Governing Council and the Governor of the Bank of Finland, stated that inflation levels in the Eurozone are steadily decreasing. However, the economic growth outlook appears to be weakening, reinforcing the rationale for a December rate cut. This could weigh further on the euro.

Additionally, with the potential re-imposition of tariffs on Europe as President-elect Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House, the Eurozone economy faces renewed pressure, which may keep the euro on a downward trajectory.

Japan:

On October 31, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its latest monetary policy decision, maintaining the interest rate at 0.25%. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the BoJ could consider further rate hikes if economic and inflationary developments align with their expectations. As a result, the market has begun to price in the expectation of a rate hike, which could strengthen the yen.

Notably, Japan's third-quarter GDP figures will be released this Friday. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike will increase.

In summary, the euro may remain under pressure due to the Eurozone's economic challenges, while the yen could strengthen on rate hike expectations, suggesting a bearish outlook for EURJPY.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the weekly chart, EURJPY is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. Nonetheless, the downward shift in recent highs and the overall weakening candlestick patterns suggest bearish momentum. Long-term moving averages are beginning to turn downward, indicating that the pair may lean toward further declines in the short term.

In the 4-hour timeframe, EURJPY has formed an irregular head-and-shoulders pattern to signal increasing selling pressure. This pattern suggests the pair may soon hit a peak and then experience a deeper pullback.

EURJPY could open up further downside potential if it breaks below 163.20, with the first target at 162.00. A break below 162.00 would shift the outlook from short-term bearish to medium-term bearish. It is recommended that the focus be on shorting at higher levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 164.00

Target Price: 160.20

Stop Loss: 166.15

Valid Until: Nov 28, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 163.20, 161.84, 160.00

Resistance: 164.79, 165.25, 166.68

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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