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Double Bottom Support Formed in Daily Chart, Remains Bullish in Short Term
Summary:
Multiple favorable conditions have helped oil prices move higher, and technical bullish signals have increased. The price is expected to further oscillate and rebound in the short term.
CLOSED
87.347
Entry Price
91.000
TP
83.000
SL
76.908 +0.889 +1.17%
434.7
Pips
Loss
83.000
SL
82.986
Exit Price
87.347
Entry Price
91.000
TP
Fundamentals
The latest data show that the manufacturing PMI of major global economies including Europe, the US, and China are underperforming and are below the boom-or-bust line. This reflects the higher risk of a global economic recession. And coupled with the repeated spread of the global pandemic, demand concerns have kept oil prices under pressure.
However, the recent strict pandemic prevention and control policies of major Asian countries have loosened and become the key factor dominating the international oil market recently. Improved demand expectations and a significant pickup in market risk appetite have benefited oil prices to rebound. And the OPEC+ production cuts, the EU embargo on Russian oil, and the end of U.S. strategic reserve oil deliveries continue to exert pressure on the supply side of oil. Although Western countries are still divided against the Russian oil price cap, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman has made it clear that Russia will not supply oil to countries that support the price cap. This countermeasure may exacerbate the tight supply situation in the crude oil market, which is good for oil prices.
In addition, the Fed is likely to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in December. The multiple favorable signs of a weaker dollar and falling U.S. crude inventories are expected to help oil prices move further higher.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, BRENT maintains a wide range oscillating downtrend overall. However, oil prices managed to hold the key support at 82.3 and have the potential to form a double bottom, with a bias towards an oscillating rebound in the short term. But the bulls will only be able to reverse the downtrend and go further after the price breaks through the key resistance at 91.5.
From the 4H chart, BRENT continues to oscillate higher with a "head and shoulders" pattern. The bullish signal is further enhanced, and the price is expected to rise further to 91.5 nearby.
It is recommended to go long after the retracement in the short term. Try to go long after the price retraces to near 86.6, with the target set at the upper-pressure level near 91.5 and the stop loss set below 83.2.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 86.6
Target price: 91.0
Stop loss: 83.0
Support: 82.3/84.5
Resistance: 91.5/89.0
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