Daily Candlesticks Retreat from Highs, Short-term Bias to Short When It Comes to a Pullback

Damon

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

24500.0

Entry Price

23000.0

25500.0

94656.1 -1339.0 -1.39%

Pips

EXPIRED

23000.0

21623.9

Exit Price

24500.0

Entry Price

25500.0

Hot Spots

1. The ETHW fork will face significant challenges due to the complexity of DeFi and the proliferation of asset-backed tokens.

2. Tencent's Phantom Core announcing the suspension of the sale of digital collections, with users having the option to hold on to them or get a refund.

3. Crypto Custody company BitGo plan to sue Galaxy Digital for pulling out of its acquisition agreement and seek compensation of $100 million.

4. The EU is about to create a new anti-money laundering regulator to oversee cryptocurrencies.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear/Greed Index stands at 44 at the moment, with Fear.The sentiment is at 45 and 47 yesterday and the day before, respectively. Although the sentiment has come to a high level in recent months, the market has not clearly chosen a direction in the last two days, resulting in little sentiment volatility.

Technicals

The BTC price rose to 25,205 yesterday and fell back to the line of 24,000. The 4-hour level candlesticks gradually formed a triangle pattern and are about to complete the convergence of the pattern. The changing time node is approaching, and the small level candlestick chart has a repair demand, so you can wait for the small level candlestick to rebound and then go short.

BTC 4-hour chart

BTC daily chart

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: short

Entry level: 24,500

Target: 23000

Stop Loss: 25500

Downside support: 23,800, 23,000, 20,000

Upside resistance: 25200, 27000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Comments

Add to Favorites

Jason

Summary:

The US dollar (USD) was favored by the market due to the weak US data and the interest rate hike by the People's Bank Of China (PBOC), which sparked risk aversion in the market.

BUY USDX

EXP

EXPIRED

106.215

Entry Price

107.254

105.700

106.710 -0.700 -0.65%

Pips

EXPIRED

105.700

106.388

Exit Price

106.215

Entry Price

107.254

Fundamentals

Trends in global financial markets were surprising on Monday, with US stocks climbing, extending their recent gains; oil prices plunged, with Brent crude oil falling by 5% once; US Treasuries rose, with the US 10-year treasury yield falling to 2.790% from last Friday's 2.848%; gold plunged by over $30; and the USD rose sharply to the 106 level, paring all its losses since the CPI was released.

The evening saw the release of weak US data, with US home builder confidence falling below 50 in August, the eighth consecutive month of decline; the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August, sharply below expectations.

It is understandable for US stocks to rise, with weak data lowering market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed); however, US stocks rose simultaneously with the USD; gold and US bonds moved in drastically different directions, with gold falling despite market expectations of a rate cut in the first quarter of next year reappearing last night. All these show that it is no longer simply the Fed driving the market. There is another factor - the PBOC cutting interest rates.

The interest rate cut by the PBOC was a surprise, with the market having expected rates to remain unchanged. The unexpected interest rate cut reflected, to some extent, potential concerns about slowing down economic growth, which sparked risk aversion in the market. However, the rate cut was limited and was more of a signal of readiness to act (diverging from other countries' monetary policies). In addition to this, due to the interest rate cut in China, the market expected a possible drop in Chinese demand for crude oil, which led to a fall in crude oil prices.

With the support of risk aversion, more funds can flow into the USD and US assets. This is the reason for the simultaneous rise in the USD and US equities last night. In the 1-hour chart, the rise in the USD on Monday extended from the Asian session to the New York afternoon session.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the USD broke the top of the descending channel and returned to the 107.254 - 106.215 oscillation range again. In the Ichimoku chart, the baseline and turning line move up, showing that the USD is in ascending trend overall; the Stoch and DMI show that the USD will witness a round of decline. It is recommended to go long after the fall.

USDX: With the Resurgence of Economic Concerns, USD Rises as a Safe Haven_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 106.215

Target price: 107.254

Stop loss: 105.70

Support: 106.215/105.559/105.00

Resistance: 106.874/107.254/107.484

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Winkelmann

Summary:

In contrast to the slowing inflation and the strong job market in the US, increasing economic data suggests a greater risk of recession in the UK economy, increasing the risk of a fall in the GBP.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.20900

Entry Price

1.19000

1.22300

1.25725 +0.00496 +0.40%

49.5

Pips

Profit

1.19000

1.20405

Exit Price

1.20900

Entry Price

1.22300

Fundamentals

Despite the Bank of England (BOE) raising interest rates by 50 basis points in early August, UK GDP fell by 0.6% in June, the biggest contraction since January 2021. The BOE previously warned that the UK economy is expected to enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter. In addition to this, inflation is expected to peak at over 13% in October. The weak economy continues to leave the GBPUSD disadvantaged.

Meanwhile, job vacancies in the UK fell in June for the first time since August 2020, suggesting that the hot labor market in the UK could be starting to cool down. The strong non-farm payrolls in the US highlighted the gap between the UK and US economies. Markets prefer a potential soft landing for the US economy, but the UK can be at risk of a hard landing. This also makes it difficult for the GBP to rise sharply.

In addition, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who is leading the competition for the next Prime Minister of the UK, has recently made further calls for an amendment to the BOE's mandate and raised the possibility of setting a new money supply target. The market is concerned that Truss could be hinting at an easing of monetary policy to stimulate a contracting economy. It can trigger a sell-off in the GBP.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD: Weak UK Economy Limits GBP Rally_1

In the daily chart, GBPUSD rallied twice to hit the 1.2300 mark but then encountered resistance and fell, showing a double tops pattern. In the process of USD weakening, the performance of non-US currencies, GBP, is relatively weak, with the current descending trend still intact. The price has fallen below the neckline as the support level of 1.2070, and it does not rule out the possibility of another drop to the 1.20 mark in the future.

GBPUSD: Weak UK Economy Limits GBP Rally_2

In the 4H chart, the short-term decline of GBPUSD is strong. Meanwhile, the indicator RSI rapidly approaches the oversold territory. The price is expected to fall further in the future.

It is recommended to go short with small positions when the price rallies to around 1.2100. The initial target is set around the support level of 1.2000. The secondary target is set at 1.1900, with a stop-loss above 1.2200.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.2090

Target price: 1.1900

Stop loss: 1.2230

Support: 1.2000/1.1900/1.1800

Resistance: 1.2070/1.2100/1.2200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Summary:

"Oscillation" remains the keyword for the current market situation. On the one hand, the violent game of savings will continue. On the other hand, the uncertainty of the fundamentals can affect the risk appetite. The market will be at a critical point from "finding a new balance" to "achieving a weak balance." Therefore, the short-term characteristics of oscillation and lack of main threads of the market could still be maintained for a period of time. Social financing in July was significantly lower than market expectations. In fact, this year, with the influence of the pandemic and policy expectations, social financing compared to expectations showed the characteristics of being high for one month and low for another. Although the market reaction was relatively extreme when the data was first released, the key to influencing market performance in the coming month lies in the market's expectations for social finance in the latter month. Specifically, it is expected that the July data will make clear that the slope of the domestic economic repair will be flatter and catalyze a weak balance in fundamental expectations.

BUY ChinaA50

Close Time

CLOSED

13624.50

Entry Price

13795.00

13590.00

12967.50 -70.00 -0.54%

345.0

Pips

Loss

13590.00

13589.95

Exit Price

13624.50

Entry Price

13795.00

I. Fundamentals

The market will be at a critical point from "finding a new balance" to "achieving a weak balance." In particular, the differentiation of the game will be close to a critical point. The differentiation of sectors will also reach a critical point of rebalancing. The violent game of savings will continue, and market volatility will remain high.

Uncertainties such as the downturn in the overseas economic cycle will still limit the effectiveness of the "stabilization" policy, and the uncertainty of the fundamentals can affect risk appetite. Therefore, the short-term characteristics of oscillation and lack of main threads of the market could still be maintained for a period of time.

The recently released financial data in July showed a significant slowdown in the momentum of credit expansion after pulses from May to June, with residents and corporate medium and long-term loans increasing significantly less than a year ago. Although the market had already expected poor credit data in July, the depressed structured data indicated a lack of strong credit-easing carriers in the medium term. Hence, it is difficult for investors to systematically raise their expectations for the aggregate economic sector.

Social financing in July was significantly lower than market expectations. In fact, this year, with the influence of the pandemic and policy expectations, social financing compared to expectations showed the characteristics of being high for one month and low for another. Although the market reaction was relatively extreme when the data was first released, the key to influencing market performance in the coming month lies in the market's expectations for social finance in the latter month.

Specifically, it is expected that the July data will make clear that the slope of the domestic economic repair will be flatter and catalyze a weak balance in fundamental expectations.

Secondly, monetary policy is relatively stable, and the property relief is gradual. Weak equilibrium will be reached after the downward revision of policy easing expectations.

Besides, the recent divergence in economic trends and monetary policy between the US and China has converged. A weak balance will also be achieved after a rapid adjustment in foreign capital allocation.

Finally, with limited incremental capital in the market recently, the game of savings reallocation is still violent. Then, the market will remain highly volatile.

II. Technical Analysis

2.1 A50 Weekly Chart

A50: A-Share Faces "Range Trading", with Market Seeking Critical Point of Balance _1

Candlestick: last week recorded a spinning top candlestick with a long lower shadow, forming a triple long-lower-shadow candlesticks pattern. And the ascending trend line has effectively supported a price reversal after building a bottom three times at the bottom.

CCL: the bulls increase their positions.

Key resistance level: the price is suppressed by the descending trend line from 19 February 2021, with the key resistance level above around 13720.

Summary: Focus on the resistance level of the descending trend line from 19 February 2021, around 13720.

2.2 A50 Daily Chart

A50: A-Share Faces "Range Trading", with Market Seeking Critical Point of Balance _2

Candlestick: 34-day moving average (MA) and 55-day MA are about to form a death cross when a price pullback is expected at the hourly chart.

MACD: form a golden cross in the oversold territory.

KD: form a golden cross in the oversold territory.

Fast and slow trend lines: form a golden cross, with the key intra-day support level at 13595.

CCL: the bulls increase their positions.

Summary: the price oscillates to the highs from the bottom today.

2.3 A50 Hourly Chart

A50: A-Share Faces "Range Trading", with Market Seeking Critical Point of Balance _3

Candlestick: the bottom of the candlestick falls and tests the ascending trend line, signaling the end of wave 4 and the imminent start of wave 5 of the impulse wave, with the direction to go long.

MA: has formed a unilateral trend.

MACD: two lines move back and near the zero axis.

KD: form a golden cross, with the crossover point being around 30.

Fast and slow trend lines: form a golden cross.

Summary: Wave 5 of the impulse waves is imminent, with the direction to go long.

A50: A-Share Faces "Range Trading", with Market Seeking Critical Point of Balance _4

It is recommended to go long on the A50 at lows during the session.

Entry price: 13685

Take profit: 13795

Stop loss: 13590

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Winkelmann

Central Bank

Summary:

Worries of a global economic recession intensified, and the USD has appreciated sharply in the short term. In addition, there are signs of profit-taking at the highs in gold, increasing the depreciation risk of gold in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1785.00

Entry Price

1755.00

1816.00

2623.25 -92.91 -3.42%

Pips

EXPIRED

1755.00

1762.77

Exit Price

1785.00

Entry Price

1816.00

Fundamentals

The two key data reflecting US inflation, CPI and PPI, both fell last week, inflation seems to have cooled, and the market's bets on the Fed's hawkish interest rate hike have cooled as well. Moreover, combined with the continued tensions in Russia and Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, the gold price is supported to rise for the fourth consecutive week.

However, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, remains near 6%, which is three times the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, recent comments from several Fed officials continue to be hawkish, and the market suspects that more evidence is needed to prove declining inflationary pressures, all capping gold's gains.

Meanwhile, China released a wave of disappointing economic data, with lower-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, intensifying fears of a global recession. Consequently, the safe-haven USD outperformed gold, and concerns about falling demand for commodities in China also weighed on gold prices.

Furthermore, the prospect of interest rate hikes by other central banks around the world continues to push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, and making gold more possible to decline in the short term.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD: Forming a "Bearish Engulfing Pattern" at Highs, Gold Price Tends to Move Down in the Short Term_1

Referring to the daily chart, XAUUSD fell under the pressure of 1800, and the daily highs closed with a "bearish engulfing" pattern, showing signs of profit-taking at highs and increased downside risk. According to the historical trend characteristics of gold, rebounds often come with a second dip and rebound. Even if the trend reverses, it is impossible to be achieved overnight. In the short term, it is recommended to be alert to the possibilities of falling from highs and volatility consolidation.

XAUUSD: Forming a "Bearish Engulfing Pattern" at Highs, Gold Price Tends to Move Down in the Short Term_2

Regarding the 4H chart, the indicator RSI continued the bearish divergence, and XAUUSD lingered at highs for a few days and then pulled back sharply, falling below the short-term support of 1785. As the short-term trend may have reversed, further declines in gold prices should be watched out.

It is recommended to go short with small positions when the price rebounds to near 1785, with the target set near the support level of 1750 and the stop-loss set above 1810.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1785.0

Target price: 1755.0

Stop loss: 1816.0

Support: 1750/1770

Resistance: 1785/1810

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBPAUD has recently broken out of a range that began in March. Price has now retested that range and is showing bearish price action. I expect price to continue falling to the 1.68 level before any reversal happens.

SELL GBPAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.72000

Entry Price

1.68000

1.73500

1.93356 +0.00886 +0.46%

150.0

Pips

Loss

1.68000

1.73500

Exit Price

1.72000

Entry Price

1.73500

GBPAUD Short To Support :1,6800 here we go_1

Based on the daily price action, price has broken the support zone and is currently retesting it. Expect bearish price action from here as it has rejected resistance plus the institutional key level of 1.72020.

GBPAUD Short To Support :1,6800 here we go_2

There are now some signs of seller exhaustion and buyer correctional play. I hope we are able to pull back towards our confluence zone of 1.72, here we have our area of interest with

Previous key support levelhealthy corrective levl of 61.8 fibonacci zoneDynamic trendline

. Obviously, we would like some sort of acknowledgement of the fourth confluence between H4 and D1.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPAUD

ENTRY PRICE : 1.7200

STOPLOSS : 1.73500

TAKE PROFIT : 1.6800

EXP :31 august 2022

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Summary:

The GBPUSD continued to fall on Monday, under heavy pressure from the USD. The UK monthly industrial output statistics for June released last week showed that inflation is having a serious impact on key macroeconomic parameters.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.20900

Entry Price

1.18320

1.22940

1.25725 +0.00496 +0.40%

30.5

Pips

Profit

1.18320

1.20595

Exit Price

1.20900

Entry Price

1.22940

Fundamentals

Regarding inflation, it is unclear how much the spike in global oil prices will hurt the UK economy; however, there is no doubt that it will be hurt.

While it is still too early to talk about a rate cut, expectations are still very important. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates in the second half of 2023 but may need to eventually raise rates again if it eases policy too soon.

If the BoE cuts rates before inflationary pressures disappear, it could "reignite the fire" and force a change in approach. Inflation is likely to remain high for a longer period of time. In addition to being influenced by the policy stance of Truss, who is expected to be the favorite to become prime minister of the United Kingdom, Brexit is also a factor in maintaining inflation. Brexit has pushed up input costs for businesses and limited migration into the UK thus reducing labor supply.

As the Fed's rate hike path continues to lead the BoE, the GBP could fall to its lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic. The BoE's recent recession warning coupled with growing market expectations that the Fed will raise rates by another 75 basis points has made it possible for the GBP to fall below the 1.2000 level in the near term.

With fears of a U.S. recession receding and debate about whether the Fed will raise rates by a third consecutive 75 basis points already underway, the GBP is expected to fall to between 1.2000 and 1.1400 within a month if the bearish outlook for it persists.

GBPUSD: Bulls Fail to Consolidate Above 1.2100 Level, Downtrend May Get Extended_1

Technical Analysis

After gaining sharply last Wednesday, GBPUSD hovered near its intraday lows for the third consecutive session, accumulating an overall intraday loss of 0.5%.

In last Wednesday's trading, while the downward-sloping resistance from mid-June triggered a reversal in GBPUSD, the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the upward-sloping support line near the 1.2100 level challenged the bears.

Given the recent easing of the bullish bias in the MACD and the decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), GBPUSD could extend the recent downtrend.

As we can see in the 4-hour chart, after the bulls completed their upward impulse at the 1.2257 level, GBPUSD is forming a new downward structure towards the bottom of the range at 1.2002. The price is expected to surge higher again to the middle-rail of the Bollinger Bands (in the daily chart) before falling back again a little later, targeting the 1.1990 level, with the bears even extending the structure down to 1.1890.

From a technical point of view, the MACD confirms the situation. Its signal line is moving down outside the kinetic bar area and could reach new lows soon. It is recommended to go short at highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1.2090

Target Price: 1.1832

Stop Loss: 1.2294

Valid Until: 2022-08-29 20:00:00

Support: 1.2061, 1.1990, 1.1890

Resistance: 1.2118, 1.2166, 1.2001

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Daily Candlesticks Retreat from Highs, Short-term Bias to Short When It Comes to a Pullback

Hot Spots

Sentiment

Technicals

BTC 4-hour chart

BTC daily chart

Trading Recommendations

With the Resurgence of Economic Concerns, USD Rises as a Safe Haven

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Weak UK Economy Limits GBP Rally

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A50: A-Share Faces "Range Trading", with Market Seeking Critical Point of Balance

I. Fundamentals

II. Technical Analysis

Forming a "Bearish Engulfing Pattern" at Highs, Gold Price Tends to Move Down in the Short Term

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

GBPAUD Short To Support :1,6800 here we go

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Bulls Fail to Consolidate Above 1.2100 Level, Downtrend May Get Extended

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure