Bullish in the Medium Term, Pullbacks Present Opportunities

Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The tariff uncertainties of the Trump administration continue to underpin the bullish sentiment for gold.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2904.04

Entry Price

2992.00

2859.00

2935.98 -3.28 -0.11%

239.9

Pips

Profit

2859.00

2928.03

Exit Price

2904.04

Entry Price

2992.00

Fundamentals

As of the Asian trading session on February 17th, gold was trading higher at 2,898. Recently, gold has shown a volatile consolidating trend. Last Friday, it dropped 1.55% in a single day due to profit-taking. However, in the medium to long term, it has maintained a seven-week consecutive upward trend.

The latest US retail sales data released on Friday last week showed a 0.9% decline in January, marking the largest drop in nearly two years, far exceeding market expectations. This data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending, suggesting that economic growth in the first quarter may decelerate sharply. The weak economic data has eroded the market's confidence in the Fed maintaining high interest rates and increased market bets on interest rate cuts. Furthermore, the USDX is dragged down to a nine-week low of 106.41, continuing to support the medium- to long- term bullish outlook for gold.

In addition, the tariff uncertainties brought by the Trump administration continue to play a supporting role. The market generally believes that its tariffs may push up the prices of imported goods. Coupled with the pressure of wage growth in the US, inflation expectations still pose potential concerns. The market is worried about the "stagflation" risk of the co-existence of economic slowdown and inflation, further highlighting the dual nature of gold as an inflation-hedge and safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

Bullish in the Medium Term, Pullbacks Present Opportunities_1

Regarding the 4H chart, gold maintains the uptrend despite a more-than-60-dollar drop last Friday. Meanwhile, after the sharp retracement, the pressure formed after the overbought hovers, and buy-the-dips will keep boosting gold prices.

In terms of the moving average system, multiple moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement pattern, indicating a strong continuity of the upward trend. Pullbacks present opportunities.

At present, gold pulled back significantly to near the support level of 2880 last Friday. At the same time, it retested the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement (2878), forming a resonance in the support area to confirm the stabilization and rebound of gold. The decline in the 4H chart has already shown signs of stopping, and the uptrend of gold may continue.

Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2900.00

Target price: 2992.00

Stop loss: 2859.00

Valid Until: March 03, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 2876.90/2863.62/2853.22

Resistance: 2939.95/2942.54/2968.80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Economic

Forex

Summary:

GBPUSD has reached a local high of 1.2630 in the latest session, encountering a psychological and technical resistance level.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.25900

Entry Price

1.24100

1.26600

1.26199 -0.00481 -0.38%

70.0

Pips

Loss

1.24100

1.26602

Exit Price

1.25900

Entry Price

1.26600

The president unveiled plans for reciprocal tariffs against major trading partners that currently impose tariffs on U.S. goods while enjoying tariff-free access to the American market. Furthermore, the administration is considering treating foreign value-added taxes (VAT) on imported goods as de facto tariffs, which could lead to additional retaliatory measures.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated that inflation remains sticky, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year in January, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.3%, surpassing both the previous 3.2% reading and the 3.1% forecast.

This unexpected rise in core inflation dampened expectations for early rate cuts, boosting demand for the U.S. dollar as investors reassessed the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales declined by 0.9% month-over-month in January, a steeper drop than the expected 0.1% decrease. This disappointing figure weighed on the dollar initially, allowing GBP/USD to climb above 1.2600.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered testimony before Congress, reiterating that the central bank sees no urgency to cut rates in the near term.

"With monetary policy now significantly less restrictive than it was, and the economy remaining resilient, we do not feel pressured to adjust our stance quickly," Powell stated.

While acknowledging that the U.S. economy is in a “fairly good place”, Powell emphasized that policymakers are still monitoring inflation, which, despite recent progress, remains "somewhat elevated."

Across the Atlantic, the British pound found support following cautious remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill urged caution on rate cuts, warning against premature easing. Similarly, BoE policymaker Megan Greene emphasized the importance of a gradual and measured approach to monetary easing, reinforcing market expectations that the BoE may hold off on rate cuts longer than anticipated. A Bearish Correction Could Be on the Horizon for GBPUSD_1

A Bearish Correction Could Be on the Horizon for GBPUSD_1

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has reached a local high of 1.2630 in the latest session, encountering a psychological and technical resistance level. The pair has started to show signs of exhaustion, suggesting a potential short-term retracement, especially as multiple factors align to support the U.S. dollar.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 70, entering overbought territory. Such readings often precede corrective pullbacks, particularly when paired with price action signals. Additionally, the last two 4-hour candlesticks have exhibited patterns often associated with trend reversals, adding further weight to the possibility of a bearish move.

While 100-period and 200-period moving averages continue to signal a dominant bullish trend, they remain positioned between 1.2385 and 1.2440, a zone that could serve as a natural retracement target.

A key ascending trendline also aligns with this area, reinforcing the likelihood that a corrective move could test this support before the broader uptrend resumes.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.2590

Target price: 1.2410

Stop loss: 1.2660

Validity: Feb 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Commodity

Summary:

Divergences between RSI levels and price action suggest that selling pressure is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reversal from this zone.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2879.73

Entry Price

2911.00

2860.00

2935.98 -3.28 -0.11%

181.3

Pips

Profit

2860.00

2897.86

Exit Price

2879.73

Entry Price

2911.00

Retail sales in the United States fell by 0.9% in January, totaling $723.9 billion, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. This decline followed an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December (previously reported at 0.4%) and came in worse than the market expectation of a 0.1% drop.

Despite the monthly downturn, the report highlighted that total sales from November 2024 to January 2025 increased by 4.2% compared to the same period last year. However, retail sales alone fell 1.2% from December, though they remained 4% higher year-over-year.

Meanwhile, industrial production grew by 0.5% in January, slowing from the 1% expansion recorded in December but still surpassing the expected 0.3% increase.

The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central banks purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. Notably, following Donald Trump's election victory, gold purchases by central banks surged 54% year-over-year, reaching 333 metric tons, according to WGC data.

On the geopolitical front, concerns over trade tariffs remain. The upcoming April 1 deadline for a U.S. Treasury review on foreign exchange and trade practices, ordered by Trump, is expected to bring more clarity on potential tariff implementations.

There are also growing indications that Trump's economic advisors are closely monitoring the potential inflationary impact of trade policies on domestic prices, given persistent inflationary pressures.

"Businesses today may be more inclined to pass higher costs onto consumers than in the past, given the widespread familiarity with price increases over recent years," market analysts noted.

From a currency perspective, the U.S. dollar’s trading pattern under Trump’s second term appears to be mirroring the early stages of his first presidency. Back in 2017, initial optimism surrounding Trump's policies drove bullish sentiment for the USD, only for the DXY index to drop by 10% over the course of the year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that any adjustments to monetary policy would require clear progress on inflation or signs of weakness in the labor market.

At present, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 55% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June, reflecting ongoing uncertainty among market participants.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have been declining sharply, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.47%, reducing investor interest in the U.S. dollar. Buying the Dip to Ride Gold´s Strong Uptrend_1

Buying the Dip to Ride Gold´s Strong Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

Gold has pulled back from the $2,940 level, which it tested twice, forming what appears to be a double-top pattern. Since reaching this peak, prices have retraced to $2,882, a key support zone that previously acted as resistance on two occasions. In an uptrend, such pullbacks often present buying opportunities as previous resistance levels turn into support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 21, entering clear oversold territory. Additionally, divergences between RSI levels and price action suggest that selling pressure is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reversal from this zone.

If $2,882 holds as support, gold could regain momentum and resume its primary uptrend. However, a break below $2,863 could invalidate this outlook, potentially opening the door for further downside pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2880

Target price: 2911

Stop loss: 2860

Validity: Feb 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ethereum, as the world's leading smart contract platform, continues to demonstrate robust fundamental support in recent years.

BUY ETH-USDT

EXP

PENDING

2595.00

Entry Price

3286.00

2300.00

2737.71 +14.18 +0.52%

Pips

PENDING

2300.00

Exit Price

2595.00

Entry Price

3286.00

Fundamentals

Network Upgrades and Technical Enhancements: Following the "Merge", Ethereum transitioned to a PoS consensus mechanism. The recent "Shanghai Upgrade" has unlocked the liquidity of staked assets. Concurrently, ongoing EIP advancements contribute to reduced transaction fees and enhanced network efficiency.

Ecosystem Flourishing: Applications such as DeFi, NFTs, and DAOs continue to drive activity within the Ethereum network. A multitude of developers and projects are consistently injecting vitality into the ecosystem.

Fee Burning Mechanism: The EIP-1559 mechanism, by burning a portion of transaction fees, aids in curbing the supply of new coins, thereby providing long-term price support.

Market Sentiment: Both institutional and retail investors are increasingly focused on Ethereum, further solidifying its position as a core smart contract platform.

From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's long-term outlook remains positive, with its expanding ecosystem and network upgrades laying a solid foundation for future growth. However, in the short term, market sentiment and technical adjustments may trigger volatility; therefore, it is recommended to buy the dips while strictly managing risk. Please note that the above trading recommendations are for reference only. Actual trading decisions should also consider other technical indicators and individual risk tolerance. Consulting a professional investment advisor is recommended when necessary.

Buy the Dips while Strictly Managing the Risks_1

Technical Analysis

The current Ethereum price hovers around US$2,693. Technical analysis suggests that if the price retraces to approximately US$2,600 and successfully maintains this key support level, the bulls are likely to regain control.

However, a break below US$2,550 could signal a breakdown, intensifying downward pressure in the short term, with some analysts cautioning about the risk of a near-term pullback.

Entry Price: it is recommended to buy the dips, with an entry price around US$2,600.

Stop-Loss: To mitigate the risk of support failure, a stop-loss should be placed around US$2,550.

Target Price: If a price rebound commences, consider taking profits in increments within the range of US$2,850 to US$3,000.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2595

Target Price: 3286

Stop Loss: 2300

Valid Until: March 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2589, 2534, 2455

Resistance: 2722, 2797, 2856

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Considering the current fundamental and technical aspects of Bitcoin, its long-term outlook remains bullish. However, market sentiment and liquidity factors could induce significant volatility in the short term.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

94000.0

Entry Price

103000.0

90700.0

96557.9 -1552.1 -1.58%

0.0

Pips

Flat

90700.0

Exit Price

94000.0

Entry Price

103000.0

Fundamentals

With increased governmental attention, Bitcoin's price is poised for a surge.

The spike in Bitcoin interest coincides with a period where nations are seeking diverse asset investment options. Digital assets, including Bitcoin, offer an alternative investment choice, potentially yielding high returns when traditional markets exhibit uncertainty. The passage of these bills will lead to a significant increase in BTC demand. Strong buying pressure will drive Bitcoin prices upward due to increased market demand.

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin maintains long-term advantages such as limited supply and institutional preference, but a short-term correction may occur due to market volatility and liquidity risks. Therefore, a cautious approach is recommended, with a strategy of buying on dips while closely monitoring the support level near US$92,000. If the support holds, further upward movement is anticipated; if it breaks, a further decline may be triggered.

Technical Analysis

The current Bitcoin price hovers around US$97,076, exhibiting a consolidation phase at the highs. A sustained hold above the US$95,000–$97,000 range would suggest continued bullish potential. However, a break below the US$92,000 support level would significantly elevate short-term downside risk.

It is recommended to buy the dips, entering when the price retraces to approximately US$95,000.

A stop-loss should be placed near US$92,000 to mitigate losses if the support fails.

If the price rallies and surpasses key resistance levels (e.g., the US$105,000 to US$110,000 range), consider taking profits in increments.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 94000

Target Price: 103000

Stop Loss: 90700

Valid Until: March 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 95235, 93619, 92000

Resistance: 97269, 98532, 100223

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD continues its upward trajectory, reaching a fresh fortnight high near 1.0480 on Friday, bolstered by market optimism surrounding delayed tariffs, geopolitical easing, and softening safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.04600

Entry Price

1.06000

1.03800

1.04567 -0.00439 -0.42%

13.6

Pips

Profit

1.03800

1.04736

Exit Price

1.04600

Entry Price

1.06000

EUR/USD continued its impressive run on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains as the major currency pair surged to a fresh high near 1.0480. The bullish momentum has been attributed to several positive market drivers, including a delay in the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States, growing optimism over a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and a weakening US dollar, all of which have helped to fuel a more favorable sentiment for risk-sensitive assets like the euro.

The key catalyst for the euro’s strength on Friday came from the United States, where President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of reciprocal tariffs has provided a significant boost to risk appetite. In a move to ease tensions in global trade, Trump instructed US Treasury and Commerce officials to work on the details of the tariffs but confirmed that they would not come into effect before April 1. This delay in the tariff imposition has alleviated concerns about an immediate trade war between the US and its trading partners, giving investors more time to negotiate terms.

As a result, risk appetite has improved, with investors hopeful that further escalation in the trade war will be avoided. The market had initially feared that Trump would move quickly to announce these tariffs, and the delay in implementation has been seen as a positive development for global trade stability, which benefits the Eurozone’s economy.

Another factor contributing to the euro’s rise is the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the situation remains far from resolved, there has been growing speculation in the market that the two sides may be moving towards a truce. If a peace deal were to materialize, it would significantly reduce the energy supply crisis and supply chain bottlenecks that have been a major hindrance to the Eurozone’s economic recovery. This prospect has lent a degree of optimism to the single currency, offering a temporary respite from the uncertainty that has weighed heavily on the region in recent years.

Despite the favorable developments, some caution remains for EUR/USD bulls. Market participants are wary of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance, which could undermine the euro’s upward momentum in the longer term. While the ECB has provided support to the eurozone economy through accommodative monetary policy, the market is pricing in the likelihood of further interest rate cuts.

In fact, ECB officials, including Croatian central bank Governor Boris Vujčić, have signaled that additional rate cuts are on the horizon. Last month, the ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, and Vujčić’s comments have only strengthened expectations that further cuts are likely, with some market observers even predicting three additional rate cuts this year. The possibility of an even more dovish ECB, particularly if inflationary pressures in the region remain subdued, could dampen the euro’s momentum and bring the currency pair back under pressure.

Additionally, concerns over a widening interest rate differential between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have emerged. The Fed is expected to keep rates in a restrictive range of 4.25%-4.50% for an extended period, while the ECB’s dovish stance might see the euro facing a tougher time competing against a more attractive US dollar. A robust US dollar remains a key headwind for the euro, particularly as the Federal Reserve signals its intent to maintain a hawkish policy stance to combat persistent inflationary pressures and an overheated labor market.

Another contributing factor to EUR/USD’s recent rally has been the weakness of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, dropped to a near four-week low below 107.00 on Friday as safe-haven demand for the dollar has subsided. The delay in the implementation of tariffs and the positive sentiment surrounding a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have weighed on the dollar, which typically benefits from global uncertainties.

However, while the US dollar remains on the backfoot for now, its outlook has not turned bearish. Investors are still bracing for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive interest rate policy, which is expected to keep the greenback supported in the medium term. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have reinforced this view, with Powell signaling that the central bank will keep interest rates high for an extended period to rein in inflation. In his testimony before Congress this week, Powell stated that the Fed would maintain “policy restraint for longer” as long as the economy remains resilient and inflation does not move towards the 2% target.

This means that while the dollar is currently under pressure, its long-term prospects remain solid, especially if inflationary pressures persist and the labor market remains strong.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the upcoming US Retail Sales data for January, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. A key measure of consumer spending, the Retail Sales report is expected to show a modest decline of 0.1% in January, following a 0.4% expansion in December. A weaker-than-expected retail sales print could further dampen sentiment around the US dollar and provide additional support for EUR/USD.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing clear signs of bullish momentum. The pair recently broke above the key level at 1.0455, closing the daily candlestick above it and opening the door for further upside movement. The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) is providing support, indicating that the short-term trend remains bullish.

We will be watching for the price to continue its climb towards the psychological resistance level at 1.0500. A pullback to the 1.0460 entry level could offer a potential buying opportunity, with a stop loss placed at 1.0381. If the bullish momentum holds, the next target for EUR/USD could be 1.0600, a level that aligns with both a pullback resistance and a 100% Fibonacci projection.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURSUD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.0460

STOP LOSS: 1.0380

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/JPY pair has continued its downward trajectory, touching near 152.60 during Friday’s European trading session, as the US Dollar (USD) faces broad weakness.

SELL USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

153.000

Entry Price

151.000

155.400

149.205 -0.405 -0.27%

Pips

PENDING

151.000

Exit Price

153.000

Entry Price

155.400

The USD/JPY currency pair has come under significant downward pressure in the latest trading sessions, with the exchange rate falling near 152.60 in the European hours on Friday. The movement is a result of a general USD underperformance, as risk appetite returns to the markets. Investors, buoyed by optimism over global economic conditions, have shifted their focus towards riskier assets. This change in sentiment has been largely attributed to the recent remarks by US President Donald Trump, who, on Thursday, refrained from unveiling a detailed reciprocal tariff plan, further fueling optimism that the US and China may be moving away from the brink of a trade war.

Trump's move to request Treasury and Commerce Department officials to work on a reciprocal tariff system, rather than providing an immediate and concrete solution, has softened fears of a swift escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between the two global superpowers. Market participants had expected a more aggressive stance on tariffs, and Trump's decision to delay further action has been interpreted as a sign that the US may not take a hardline approach just yet. As a result, the USD has weakened, and investors have turned to other, higher-yielding assets, placing downward pressure on the pair.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has also shown signs of softness, revisiting a near four-week low around 106.80. This decline comes as traders scale back their expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening in the near term. Although market participants have shifted towards riskier assets, there remains a firm outlook for the USD, primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during his two-day testimony before Congress, affirmed that the central bank could maintain its current policy of "restraint for longer" if the US economy remains resilient and inflation continues to hover above the 2% target. Powell’s comments point to the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period, which should provide some underlying support for the USD despite its current softening.

The Yen’s StrugglesWhile the USD has weakened, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has shown little signs of gaining ground. The JPY has underperformed against nearly all major currencies, with the exception of the USD. Despite growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue its path of monetary policy tightening, the Yen remains weak in the face of broader market dynamics.

The ongoing inflationary pressures in Japan, which have remained above the BoJ's 2% target for an extended period, have led to growing speculation that the central bank could take further steps towards tightening. Additionally, there are expectations of continued wage increases, which could put further pressure on the BoJ to adjust its stance. However, despite these hawkish expectations, the JPY has failed to capitalize on the weaker USD and broader risk-on sentiment.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has experienced a significant pullback, following a failure to break above the 154.96 resistance level. This failure triggered a downward move, pushing the pair to break below the 153.75 support level and continuing its decline towards 152.55. The price has found itself under correctional bearish pressure, with further declines anticipated in the coming sessions.

The current price action suggests a potential break below the 152.43 level. However, before this happens, a short-term correction towards approximately 153.77 is expected. If the pair does manage to break below 152.43, it will likely encounter a trend channel, which could provide some support and will need to be breached to confirm the bearish trend. A decisive move below this level would open the door for further downside potential in the pair.

Conversely, if the USD/JPY pair breaks above the 153.00 level, it could signal the establishment of a bullish trend. A break above 155.06 would further confirm the reversal of the recent downtrend, paving the way for further gains in the pair. Traders will be closely watching these levels in the coming sessions, as they could provide clues regarding the next directional move.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 153.00

STOP LOSS: 155.40

TAKE PROFIT: 151.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Bullish in the Medium Term, Pullbacks Present Opportunities

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A Bearish Correction Could Be on the Horizon for GBPUSD

Technical Analysis

Buying the Dip to Ride Gold´s Strong Uptrend

Technical Analysis

Buy the Dips while Strictly Managing the Risks

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Medium-term Trend Remains Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR/USD Climbs to 1.0480 Amid Positive Market Sentiment, but Underlying Risks Remain

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Faces Continued Pressure as Dollar Weakens Amid Market Optimism; Yen Remains Underperformer

Risk Disclosure