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Bullish Momentum Sharply Reduced After Breaking "Head and Shoulders" Pattern
Summary:
The GBPUSD rebounded to 1.2700, buoyed by surprising UK inflation data that dashed the Bank of England's (BOE) hopes of a significant rate cut this year, boosting the GBP; however, the bullish momentum sharply diminished.
EXPIRED
1.25600
Entry Price
1.29180
TP
1.24960
SL
1.23996 -0.00333 -0.27%
--
Pips
EXPIRED
1.24960
SL
1.27299
Exit Price
1.25600
Entry Price
1.29180
TP
Fundamentals
UK's CPI rose 0.4% in December, beating expectations for a 0.2% rise, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. Over the 12 months, CPI growth rose from 3.9% to 4.0%, beating expectations for a 3.8% rise. This is the first time since February 2023 that it has risen.
Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) growth was unchanged at 5.1%, higher than the expected 4.9% increase. The rise in goods CPI slowed to 1.9% YoY from 2.0%. Services CPI rose 6.3% to 6.4%.
UK inflation data for December surprisingly strengthened, which is a blow to the UK's anti-inflationary process.
Both headline and core inflation edged higher, which will leave the BOE sitting on its hands at the start of the new year. The GBP jumped as a result, with GBPUSD rising from 1.2605 to around 1.2640 until the 1.2700 level.
In terms of detail, services inflation remains tricky, rising from 6.3% in November to 6.4% in December, and remains a big issue in this report. BOE officials have previously emphasized the challenge of bringing headline inflation down to 2% if services inflation remains unchanged, and the latest data suggests that these numbers are moving in the wrong direction. On top of that, annual inflation in food prices moderated but appeared to rise by 0.5% on a year-on-year basis.
It is worth noting that inflation in the UK fell by more than half last year and it is expected to remain a difficult journey back to the BOE's 2% target. At the same time, more variables are likely to emerge in inflation trends due to geopolitical factors. There are also growing risks from developments that will require a balanced approach from the BOE. But no matter how strong the stance, the lack of growth in the UK should limit the positive movement of the GBPUSD.
Technical Analysis
Such a move now seems to be starting to take hold in terms of price dynamics. After touching the 50-day SMA for support, yesterday's decline in the GBPUSD has effectively broken the uptrend that has been in place since October; and the GBPUSD has broken below the head-and-shoulders pattern during the day, (we previously stated that the price could not break below the neckline at the level of 1.2613 or it would jeopardize the GBPUSD's upward impulse waves) GBPUSD will stabilize in the 1.2500-1.2700 range for a while in the near term, but exit from consolidation is still more likely. Its direction could be to the downside.
Overall, the GBPUSD's structural pattern seems to have begun to see a sharp decline in buying interest after breaking below the "head and shoulders", but the overall upward momentum has not been completely lost. It is recommended to set the foundation.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1,2560
Target price: 1.2918
Stop loss: 1.2496
Deadline: 2024-01-31 23:55:00
Support: 1.2613, 1.2596, 1.2548
Resistance: 1.2697, 1.2731, 1.2786
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